by Brian Brady
Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL
I guess we saw this coming. Robert Kerr has been talking about the collapse of the GSE’s, in the comments section on Bloodhound Blog, for close to a year now. Sean Purcell and I recorded a teleconference for California REALTORS about the Treasury bailout of the GSEs.
We talk about what exactly happened and what the near-term (3-4 month) effects and medium-term (12-18 month) effects on underwriting guidelines and rates. We also guessed at what the long-term (2-10 years) effect on conforming loans will be, in light of the mandate for the GSEs to reduce their portfolios.
The podcast lasts for about 15 minutes with 10 minutes of good questions and commentary by Marlene Bridges, Orange County REALTOR, Roberta Murphy, San Diego REALTOR, and John Novak, Las Vegas REALTOR. While I told the participants that their questions wouldn’t be recorded, it appears that they were. Thanks to everyone who participated in the call.
We’ll be doing more of these teleconferences on a regular basis.
Tom Vanderwell says:
Hey Sean and Brian,
Interesting stuff. Not sure I agree with all of it, but then I think Sean would faint if I did, right Sean?
I think it’s going to be interesting to see how the mortgage world evolves over the next 10 years to life without great big Fannie and Freddie…..
Tom
September 8, 2008 — 7:44 pm
Teri Lussier says:
Great conversation! I appreciate the insights, thoughts and opinions from everyone.
September 8, 2008 — 8:06 pm
James Boyer New Jersey says:
Thanks for doing this, I tend to be more interested in how this is going to impact over the next 3 or 4 months, as the longer term, I can adapt to, but the short term stuff is harder to deal with.
September 8, 2008 — 8:55 pm
Jim Cosgrove says:
thanks, guys. Very informative and I appreciate the political speculation.
September 9, 2008 — 7:39 am
Roberta Murphy says:
Brian:
It was interesting last night to watch two bright young buyers have a “Gotcha” moment over this window of buying opportunity you presented.
It would be great for them to close prior to October 1–and you just may be able to pull it off:-)
Thanks for a full day of great instruction.
September 9, 2008 — 8:08 am
Sean Purcell says:
Tom – I wouldn’t faint… it just wouldn’t be nearly as much fun. Your posts have been a wealth of information and I look forward to exploring the fall out from this with you (yes, I think it is going to be “fall out”).
Teri – Thanks so much. The conversation format seemed like a good idea at the time… 🙂
James – Well put. I tend to agree with you that the immediate is what matters most and the rest can be adapted to over time. While we don’t see any real change in the next quarter or even two, there are some program changes coming that we covered in the conversation and those are great marketing opportunities.
Jim – There is a HUGE political component to this. We only addressed one aspect of it in an effort to remain apolitical but (and this is my opinion here) the real issue between the two candidates is whether or not the responsibilities of Fannie & Freddie are enveloped within the government or released to the private sector. I think even the GSEs would be a better option than having the government directly involved in repackaging loans.
September 9, 2008 — 10:06 am
Jim Cosgrove says:
Gosh you’re a radical, Brian. Next you’ll be saying you don’t want the government running health care.
September 9, 2008 — 11:26 am
Robert Kerr says:
I lay the blame for this squarely at Paulson’s feet.
September 9, 2008 — 8:00 pm