There’s always something to howl about.

Do Today’s home prices reflect their market value?

Can you really look at a buyer today and tell them that they are buying their home at a good price?  Sure, you can tell them how the price they are paying compares to what folks have been paying the last few months, or few years.  But that doesn’t mean that what you are seeing is the true market price!  The actual market price can’t be determined without a free market.  Right now, we have anything but a free and stable market in real estate.

Take the government’s free ice cream housing promotion, also known as the Homebuyer Tax Credit.  The issue I’m concerned about isn’t that it is going to cost taxpayers about 15 billion dollars if it is allowed to expire on November 30.  Nor is the issue that it has cost $43,500 that we, our children and grandchildren will somehow have to pay for each new buyer attracted into the program according to the NAR numbers.  The issue is it has artificially increased the value of homes in the market by $8000 and that will end on November 30th, or sometime.

So, that $250,000 home your client just bought and put a mortgage on is really only worth $242,000 when that market distortion is removed.  With an FHA loan, and a program to use the tax credit for a down payment, guess who is already upside down in their purchase?  Does this sound anything like the too recent past?

Our tax code is already heavily skewed towards home ownership.  With our government’s current spending spree and their desire to raise taxes, could the sacred mortgage interest tax deduction eventually be reduced?

While that is probably not the immediate threat, the current rulers prefer government solutions to allowing the private market to function.  Be it FHA or State Housing Programs for low income borrowers, a monetary policy of rock bottom interest rates and the mortgage interest deduction the programs and the proposals coming forth further distort the market.

This makes the biggest risk in a real estate investment strategy or even a home purchase predicting the future changes in artificial supports to the market and estimating their effect on the value of those investments.

Imagine a market without a Toxic Assets Program, Troubled Assets Relief Program, Homebuyer’s Tax Credit, a Interest Mortgage Deduction and a distorted monetary policy.  If you could do that accurately, you could really determine the market value of real estate.  Then you could tell that eager new buyer whether or not they are really getting a good deal in the marketplace.  Isn’t that what we should have learned from 2006?