There’s always something to howl about.

Sez Me — Random Sunday Thoughts — The Duh Factor

We now hear empirical evidence about home prices across the nation. They rose (median) by 1%. They’re expected to rise by a tad more than that this year. Oh my.

Home builders also sold their new stuff last year for more than the year before. It’s also expected they’ll go up just a touch this year too. Oh my.

Developers are continuing to break ground on new projects all over the country. I guess they’re operating on the sound business principle that if they build it you will come. OR, they’ve done massive market research, analyzed the data within an inch of its life, concluding there’s still a thriving market for their product — at higher prices than the last project. Oh my.

Faster Than The Speed Of Stupid

This is the new bubble. You know, where reality bubbles to the top, assigning disaster theories to the writing room of The Tonight Show for Jay’s stand-up routine.

Lenders will lay low for a short while, (Captian Obvious Speaks) as they strive to create product that is attractive to both borrowers, underwriters, and their bottom line. Nothing trumps the number one axiom of real estate lending — lenders lend. Duh, Captain Obvious.

If you think we’re headed back to 20% down payments, then you’re also are still waiting for windmills to replace oil for energy. Why do you think we went from 20-30% down to 0-10% in the first place? Just maybe it was because lenders weren’t making enough loans to suit them. You’re on a roll Captain.

Idaho is the third fastest growing state in the nation. People are beating a path to their door. I wonder if that’s why the general Boise region is pegged to double in population in the next couple decades? Is it possible that the Phoenix area, which is also a population growth monster, will continue to prosper? Captain Obvious says — “Uh, yeah.” Duh

So here we are again poised to wet our collective pants laughing at all the Chicken Littles out there. And those laughing the loudest? The ones who looked at the real data, learned from history, and became disciples of Captain Obvious.

By the way, the name Captain Obvious comes from the Latin root phrase, One Who Learns From Observation and History. If you don’t believe me you can ask Greg. πŸ™‚

Axiom: The directions of the lines on all the charts don’t go up or down forever. Yet every single time there’s an upward trend ending, we are told the sky is falling. They said it after the ’69, ’74, ’81, ’91, and ’01 recessions. (Of course, the ’01 recession went unnoticed in real estate.) It’s like they believe that a six pack of beer will now consist of five beers. Axiom: A six pack of beer contains six beers. Duh

This post was ghost written by Captain Obvious.