Here’s my quick take on the presidential election, from a video made one day prior to the event: Mitt Romney is going to win an Electoral College landslide. My state-by-state prediction is shown below, but it’s not based on any sort of arcane science. I’m just betting that married people with kids and jobs will vote to fire Barack Obama for gross incompetence.
Note that this is not an expression of racism, as you will surely hear from the perpetually-sore-losers of the chattering classes. I’m just betting that the people with the biggest stake in the game of human life will vote against the most perniciously anti-life candidate ever to seek the office of the presidency.
But at the same time, Romney’s win will not be any sort of repudiation of Marxism, contrary to Michael Walsh’s claim at National Review Online. It’s just the correction of a bad hiring decision.
In this week’s video, I argue that the self-loving thing for you to do is to accept that fact that each human being is sovereign and indomitable, and that, therefore, self-control is all the control that can ever exist among human beings. In the course of that argument, I cite an essay of mine, Meet the Third Thing. I also recite an old poem, which I will transcribe here for what may be the first time it has ever appeared in print:
What if I’ve been wrong?
What if I’ve been wrong all along?
What if everything I’ve said,
everything I’ve done,
everything I’ve thought about is wrong?
What if I’ve been wrong all along?
Here is this week’s video:
For an audio-only version of this video, take yourself to the SelfAdoration.com podcast on iTunes.
Dylan Darling says:
I think it’s going to be a lot closer than you think Greg. I have a feeling the numbers are going to go back and fourth all night, then the re-counts will be ordered, and we won’t know for sure for a week or so. It’s going to be an interesting ride tonight and tomorrow.
November 6, 2012 — 3:03 pm
Drew says:
Great post Greg. As Dylan said, I think this is going to be a close one. We might not know what the results will be until several days after the election.
Anyway, let’s hope and pray for the best!
November 6, 2012 — 6:34 pm
Richard says:
As a statistician I had figured on an Obama win.
None of the latest polls, or statistical aggregators, predicted a Romney win. And it didn’t happen. I do have some minor issues with the techniques used by votamatic (Bayesian model that used primarily econometric data, and in my opinion did not account sufficiently for recent data, aka polls) and PEC (Bayesian model that apparently did not account at all for older data, being far too sensitive to poll bounces). I have fewer issues with Nate Silver, who ran roughly the same analysis I would (MCMC, but he allowed inflated error bars, probably from econometric data).
Bottom line, though, is that they all did a better job calling the outcome than any hunch about enthusiasm (untestable), or a belief that the polls were systematically biased (testable, and provably false).
November 6, 2012 — 11:40 pm
Greg Swann says:
Mea culpa mei. The bad news is that I was wrong about American voters. The good news is, I was right about you.
November 7, 2012 — 12:11 am
Anderson Malone says:
Although the election did not turn out quite like I thought, the pattern of blue and red is almost a given in most elections. Why is it that only a few states ever really seem to matter in most elections? I cannot even remember the last time my state was blue or the one I used to live ever being red.
November 13, 2012 — 3:07 pm
Dave Barnes says:
@Greg,
Too much Flavor-Aid (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flavor_Aid) in your drinking supplies.
November 19, 2012 — 2:27 pm
Greg Swann says:
Fallacy ad hominem — literally well-poisoning! 😉 Jim Jones was a Marxist, in any case.
Nice to see you, though, Dave. Happy holidays to you and your family!
November 19, 2012 — 2:47 pm
Greg Tracy says:
Classic Greg Swann, putting yourself out there with such a bold prediction. It’s what makes your writing so fun to read, you always have an opinion and you don’t hesitate to put it out there- I love it!
One of the great things about being in real estate is that we get to influence our own business more than the government can, and certainly more than any one person in government.
In every market, and under each president, there are people making money and losing money in real estate. It’s a pretty powerful thought that I get to determine my success.
November 27, 2012 — 4:47 pm
Greg Swann says:
It’s great to see you, Greg, and I love that attitude.
November 28, 2012 — 7:20 am