Overall September real estate market results for MLS listed homes in the Phoenix area
By: Greg Swann,
Phoenix Real Estate,
Post Archive,
RSS FeedPosted: Thursday, October 5th, 2006, 6:35 pm MST
Category: Marketing, Real Estate
In the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service at large, 5,607 homes sold in September against an inventory of 47,428, an implied absorption rate of 8.46 months. There are 5,932 properties listed as “Sale Pending.”
The historical numbers make it plain that we did not experience the traditional selling season, but they also make it plain that a simplistic year-over-year analysis — which we can expect from the Arizona Republic a week or more from now — is misleading.
Number of Homes Sold (with Days on Market)March 2003 6471 67
2004 8678 60
2005 9959 36
2006 7469 58April 2003 7429 67
2004 8889 61
2005 9567 32
2006 6725 60May 2003 7428 67
2004 8932 56
2005 9853 27
2006 7582 63June 2003 7409 67
2004 9969 55
2005 10225 26
2006 7209 67July 2003 7643 64
2004 8974 51
2005 9326 25
2006 6101 70August 2003 7648 63
2004 8968 47
2005 9996 25
2006 6170 76Sept. 2003 6802 62
2004 8648 45
2005 9152 28
2006 5607 80
Average prices are down from August, from $331,266 to 324,370 in September, a net loss of about 2.1%.
Note that this may not accurately reflect the Phoenix-area real estate market as a whole. All private sales and most new-home builder sales are excluded from MLS statistics.
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5 Comments so far
8.5 months of inventory now?! Holy cow. It just keeps getting worse every month, doesn’t it?
> It just keeps getting worse every month, doesn’t it?
I’m more interested in buyers than sellers. Many of the sellers are not serious, so the fact that their homes are listed means very little. But September was shy 1,200 buyers, compared to September 03, and that’s not good. Leading indicators argue for an increase in buyer activity, and the Market Basket homes, those I watch most closely, are relatively normal. I think the bubble bloggers have seen the moment of their mediocrity flicker, but it will take a few months for that to become obvious to everyone.
Actually, it’s not getting that much worse month over month. When I started posting rolling 30-day averages on a weekly basis in July on my blog, we were at about a 7.2-month supply.
My last numbers through Monday (and not yet posted due to time constraints) was at 8.3. But I’m also only tracking single-family detached, not the full ARMLS.
“Note that this may not accurately reflect the Phoenix-area real estate market as a whole. All private sales and most new-home builder sales are excluded from MLS statistics.”
What makes you think they would be any different? If anything, builders have more flexibility to lower prices than most private sellers do, or can at least throw in more incentives. And how many private sales are there? Enough to make a meaningful difference in the stats?
[...] In the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service at large, 5,590 homes sold in October against an inventory of 47,069, an implied absorption rate of 8.42 months. There are 6,059 properties listed as “Sale Pending.” All of these numbers are very close to September’s results. Number of Homes Sold (with Days on Market) [...]