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Business Journal: “Housing market could bottom out in six months”

From The Business Journal of Phoenix:

The housing market could bottom out during the next six months, according to Metrostudy’s latest report on local real estate markets.

“Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support for housing demand are positive indicators for a housing turnaround by mid-2007,” said Mike Inselmann, president of the Richmond, Texas, company. “The Federal Reserve has ended its series of rate increases, and mortgage rates have dropped notably in the last few months,” he added.

Phoenix continues to have one of the nation’s strongest economies, said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy’s Arizona division. Even though job growth declined from a peak of more than 100,000 new jobs for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2005, the 91,900 jobs posted at the end of September 2006 puts the state at the top of the nation, he said.

It will take a few days for the errors to shake out of the MLS, but October’s Market Basket looks pretty weak: Sales down, prices down — but inventories continue their downward trend. Given that we’re headed into the holidays, it’s reasonable to expect the rest of the year to be slow.

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    4 Comments so far

    1. mike October 31st, 2006 9:44 am

      Business Journal: “Housing market could bottom out in six months”

      Tuck that article right next to David Lereah’s “The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade.”

      These optimistic predictions seem to be the result of desire and blind hope overwhelming rational, objective evaluation of the data – and that’s somewhat excusable – but at some point the optimists become laughing stocks who are no longer taken seriously.

      It’s very much like watching a defense attorney doing his best to to conjure up some reasonable doubt – *any* reasonable doubt (eg: “inventories are down!”)- in the face of incontrovertible evidence to the contrary.

      Even if many won’t admit it, I think just about everyone here knows, deep down, that the housing market isn’t going to turn around in 6 mos.

    2. Greg Swann October 31st, 2006 9:49 am

      > the housing market isn’t going to turn around in 6 mos.

      And that’s not what the article says.

    3. Gresham Real Estate December 18th, 2007 4:51 pm

      This is only the beginning. I think the higher end new construction will suffer the most. Homes under the average price should do fine.

    4. San Antonio Lawyer September 3rd, 2008 3:59 pm

      Gresham Real Estate – Are you making that statement based off of history, previous facts, your personal opinion or what? I am not disputing the claim, I am just trying to better understand. Thanks.