“Mike” writes:
A lot of the current level of vilification is because of people like David Lereah, ostensibly the public voice of all realtors in the US, who is now perceived by many as somewhere between a buffoon and a baldfaced liar.
The man simply cannot tell the truth and every monthly and quarterly revision the NAR issues highlights that problem.
You are correct about one thing: David Lereah is often wrong in some of his predictions. I don’t think he is the only economist who makes non-stop predictions (that are published and posted on the internet) who is wrong on some of his pronouncements. In fact, he has a lot of company. To my knowledge almost every economist who makes predictions about the direction of “the market” is often wrong – it just goes with the territory. In all of history there is NO person who consistently always accurately predicted the future of any financial market (real estate, bonds, stocks, art, etc).
This is also true for people who – on a daily basis – predict the weather. They are often wrong. But most people don’t tend to characterize the meteorologist who said, “No rain this weekend” as a baldfaced liar. Most people seem to understand that anybody who makes predictions all the time will not be right all the time. Unlike you (and the other gleeful I-hate-everything-about-NAR-and-all-Realtors), David Lereah actually uses his real name when he makes a prediction – and his past predictions are readily available for anyone to compare with the actual statistics that did occur. Based on the fact that Mr. Lereah uses his own name – just this one point – makes anything he might have to say FAR more credible than anything you (or any of the other nameless and spineless cowards who anonymously snipe) might have to say. I have NO respect for the opinion of someone who is too spineless to even use a real email address.
How about YOU bother to do some real research yourself before you call someone a liar? How about posting specific statements made by Lereah and the specifics that show those statements to be wrong? While you’re at it – compare his track record with other economists who were also making predictions at the same time and let me know how he did compared to them. There must be several hundred economists making predictions, just from large banks and financial institutions alone – tell me how they did in comparison to Lereah. Or are all of them – each and every one baldfaced liars?
Better yet – post YOUR predictions. Not that idiotic, “the entire real estate business will collapse and all Realtors will be out of business” crap. Post YOUR predictions (along with a real name and email address) for the first quarter of 2007. Post some numbers comparing your predictions to the first quarter of 2006 and let’s see how close you get.
What do you think an economist makes a year? Take a guess. 200k? Do you think they pay him over 300k a year? I don’t. Anyone who was good enough to be right – even 85% – 90% of the time – would not be working for NAR, doing anything. People who can predict a market (any market) correctly as often as 75% of the time – have money – lots of it – IN THOSE MARKETS. They don’t need to sell their opinions for a couple of hundred thousand dollars a year – they can and do make more than that in a month.
Please write if you ever get real work.
name says:
Lereah not only lies, he either knows or should have known he is lying, which means that if he is unaware that he is pathologically lying then he belongs in a psychiatric unit.
December 13, 2006 — 12:33 am
Agusto says:
No namae, for someone that thinks Lereah is a bald face liar, you sure pay alot of attention to what he has to say.
David, Are you one of those speculators that got caught holding a couple of investment properties? Or are you just pissed that you didn’t make any money here in Phoenix? Let me guess you cant afford a home here in Phoenix.
December 13, 2006 — 2:17 am
mike says:
Please write if you ever get real work.
Excuse me?
My opinion of you just plummeted, Mr. Shaw.
December 13, 2006 — 7:02 am
Kaiser Sose says:
Russell, perhaps you don’t remember the dot-com bubble of the late-90’s. Lereah is no different than the biased analysts that were promoting lame stocks by making rediculous assumptions. He’s no different than Abby Joseph Cohen who hyped the market at any possible opportunity so Goldman could go public at a higher price and so they could flog off their crappy stocks. Lereah is a repeat performance and, sorry, at least we aren’t fooled.
Here’s my prediction… In 2007 over $1 trillion of ARMs reset and many people will be under water. Foreclosures will continue to increase, and this market will probably bottom sometime in 2008 or 2009. I expect to see significant price decreases of around 20% to 30% in the bubble cities like Phoenix, but more modest decreases in other cities. We will likely be in or near a recession in the second half of 2007.
And your prediction Mr. Shaw? Or are you just another blowhard shill without a clue?
December 13, 2006 — 7:28 am
Todd Tarson says:
In May of this year at the mid year legislative meetings in DC for Realtors, I was able to attend a presentation by Mr. Lereah.
He didn’t paint a rosy picture for us Realtors. He said the economy was in a state of flux and depending on the changes in the economy the affects on the housing market would be noticeable.
He did also predict that this would be the third best year on record for sales… I think that is happening.
Many of his predicitions were based on other factors such as the price of oil, the war in the middle east, and proposed lending restrictions. He was spot on about the direction of the fed rates since May.
He also went on to say that the markets that would be most negatively affected housing wise would be the Phoenix, Florida, Vegas, Reno, and parts of California. (I’m going off the top of my head because I don’t feel like digging for the presentation)
Lastly for those markets above he did predict a return to a normal market or a soft landing for the year. My market is smack dab in the middle of Phoenix and Vegas and this year has seen the activity that we used to see in the years before 04 and 05.
I think it is fair to disagree with Lereah all you want. I think he can handle the criticism anyone may have of him.
As a Realtor, I have been able to sit through a couple of presentations from economists this year. Cautious would be the term they communicated to me.
December 13, 2006 — 8:32 am
Nigel Swaby says:
Good post Mr. Shaw. What a can of worms anonymous Internet posters cause. And it’s not just on this topic. I see posters ripping everybody everywhere, from local news blogs to sports blogs. Don’t ever express an opinion on the BCS!
I’ve just made it a policy to ignore anonymous posters. If you want present a cogent argument, supported by facts, I’m happy to hear it. In fact, I may even make a post about it.
http://slcrealestate.blogspot.com/2006/12/real-estate-blogging-waiting-game.html
Otherwise, I just ignore these people.
December 13, 2006 — 12:56 pm
sdcellar says:
I think it’s not completely fair to simply discount posters who choose not to share their name or email address (albeit it is your right).
I can’t speak for others, but for me one of the primary reasons I don’t publicize my name is because my opinions on real estate (or sports) have nothing to do with my work and out of respect for my employer, I refrain from sharing my name (which in turn could be associated with them). Clearly, my employer doesn’t share my personal views, but I don’t want to have to state that all the time.
All of the realtors who share there names are motivated to do so because their name and their business are largely the same thing (heck, that’s why most post links to their own blogs/sites).
I am not saying any of this makes it right for people to abuse anonymity by spewing irrational and often baseless rants about others, but rather that posts should be based on the merit of their content and not on the willingness of the poster to share his identity.
I think most of us do that anyway.
December 13, 2006 — 2:46 pm
G Stone says:
It is not about making incorrect predictions that bothers people about the David Lereah. Sometimes He makes predictions that are obviously biased in favor of the Realtors rather than those that are biased in favor of the underlying data.
December 14, 2006 — 12:57 am
Buzz Saw says:
As if you posting under a real name gives one’s opinions more credibility. lol. The pain that is coming to recent “buyers” of housing in speculative bubble markets such as yours will feret the NAR distortions out. Go ahead, try to sell me on the “American dream”, nightmare is more like it.
December 14, 2006 — 5:09 am
Brian Brady says:
Mr. Shaw:
I’d like to make some comments here to the commenters:
1- Lereah is a paid shill of the NAR…surprised? Did you expect the NAR to aggressively publish bubble platitudes? Housing prices goes up and down, and up and up and down, and up and up again. These are called cycles.
2- You cynics are contributing to the very industry you detest. More comments lead to higher search engine rankings which produces more buyers for Mr. Shaw (and me) which promulgates quicker recovery in housing.
Please continue to call me a moron on the blogosphere; each comment pays another year of my daughter’s tuition
December 16, 2006 — 1:08 am