There’s always something to howl about.

Home Prices and “The Rest of the Story.”

In case you haven’t been able to tell, I’ve been a little frustrated (okay a lot frustrated) with the markets lately.   Why?   Am I asking for bad news?

Nope, I’m looking for straight talk and reality and I don’t believe we’re getting that right now.   I don’t believe that:

  1. That the government is telling us the whole story in terms of the health of the banking world.
  2. That the statistics that supposedly show the market is recovering are truly that.   Since when is a “slowing of the pace of decline” a sign of recovery?   Bad at a slower pace doesn’t mean it’s good.
  3. That the true story on the devastation that the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler is going to mean to our economy is truly being acknowledged and prepared for.   Preparedness is essential and we’re missing the boat on that one.

I’ve spent 20 years trying to help people manage their money and their real estate investments wisely and it’s never been more challenging than it is now.

So, I’m going to keep preaching the world the way I see it.   It isn’t pretty and it isn’t nearly as pretty as the main stream media would like you to believe.

Ask yourself this, when it comes to analyzing and understanding the economy, who would you put more confidence in?   Brian Williams and Katie Couric or Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini?

I’ll be on Paul and Nouriel’s side every time.

Tom Vanderwell

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik – Bloomberg.com

We might be looking at a lost generation for U.S. home values.

Far too many analysts are calling a bottom to the housing market after home prices in 20 metropolitan areas declined at a slower pace in February, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index.

Don’t be blinded by the glint of optimism in headlines about rising consumer confidence and slowing price declines. Demographic and market realities tell a more sobering story.

You won’t see a widespread housing rebound in an economy in which 600,000 jobs a month are lost and foreclosures ravage the most overleveraged areas. These are just the visible barriers to a recovery.

Mortgage lending has also been an unusually tightfisted process of late. Lenders are demanding a 20 percent deposit for home purchases, and want impeccable credit ratings. About 45 percent of U.S. banks surveyed by the Federal Reserve said they had “tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages.” I suspect that number is much higher.

Then there’s the reality that the market is glutted with homes. A record 19 million homes stood empty at the end of 2008.