There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Brian Brady (page 2 of 27)

Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Where have all… the buyers gone?

If you work with home sellers, the pandemic has been good to you… VERY good to you. If you mostly work with buyers, the pandemic has been sheer hell for you. All of that may change in 2021.   If you spend 5 minutes reading what I am writing, you will be able to explain this dramatic shift in the market and better serve your clients. More importantly, you will be able to weed out the serious buyers and sellers from the lookers.

Background
Legions of buyers, powered by mortgages with rates which start with the digit 2, have been bidding up homes WELL over asking price. List a property on Wednesday, schedule showings for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, present a dozen offers on Monday, send out a “highest and best” counter to a half-dozen that night, and open escrow on Tuesday with a high-down payment offer, waiving the appraisal contingency and closing in 21 days.

Dramatic event which started the shift
Mortgage rates skyrocketed over half of a percentage point these past two weeks. The reasons were apparent but, as always, what Wall Street knew in January, Main Street didn’t discover until Valentine’s Day.
It started right after Christmas. The country went through a tumultuous election and was finally accepting the idea of a new President. The holiday season came and everyone was basking in the glow that 2021 HAD to be better than 2020. Few people realized that just 10 days after Christmas, there would be a Special Election for the two Senate seats in the State of Georgia. Those Senate seats, should they flip parties, would throw the balance of power in the Senate to the SAME political party as the newly elected President and Speaker of the House of Representatives– one political party would have TOTAL control over the US Government.
.
Forget which party you support and understand this–when either Republicans or Democrats have TOTAL control of the Federal Government, spending skyrockets. When we have “divided government”, the minority party has a lever to stop the profligate spending of the majority party. Wall Street LOVES divided government because they know that it will be Read more

What Professor Alexander Kurov Gets Wrong About Gamestop and Bubbles

Let’s start here;  overregulation creates bubbles, not speculators.  West Virginia University Professor of Finance, Alexander Kurov, offers an op-ed which comes to the conclusion that speculation from Reddit bros could wreak havoc on capital markets:

So markets fail sometimes, and we need sensible regulation and enforcement to make such failures less likely.

Taken in isolation, the GameStop craze is unlikely to trigger a disruption to the overall stock market, especially if its price continues to fall more in line with the company’s fundamental value. Unfortunately, this was not an isolated case. Nor was GameStop the first sign of problems.

In recent days, Reddit users have also driven up the prices of silver SI00, -2.28%  and companies such as BlackBerry BB, 0.25% and movie theater giant AMC Entertainment AMC, -18.63%. Popular trading apps like Robinhood have made trading easy, fun and basically free.

The share price of Tesla TSLA, -1.16%, for example, skyrocketed 720% last year, in large part when investors bought the stock because it was already rising. This is called momentum investing, a trading strategy in which investors buy securities because they are going up — selling them only when they think the price has peaked.

If this continues, it will likely lead to more financial bubbles and crashes that could make it harder for companies to raise capital, posing a threat to the already limping U.S. economic recovery. Even if the worst doesn’t happen, large price movements and allegations of price manipulation could hurt public confidence in financial markets, which would make people more reluctant to invest in retirement and other programs.

At face value, his theory makes sense, especially in this “everyone is out of step but my Jimmy” world which government, academia, and rent-seeking businesses created (let’s call them them “the Technocracy”, just to give them a name).    I might ask the Professor to read Bastiat and Hazlitt, and look for the unseen consequences of his conclusion  You don’t have to look far to wonder why Reddit bros are trading speculative stocks like baseball cards.  I attribute this populist interest in day-trading to three things:

1- The Federal Reserve Banking System.  Artificially low interest rates encourage borrowing over thrift.

2- Cheaper Trading Platforms.  Fintech has virtually eliminated all costs for active traders.  The knee-jerk Read more

Real Estate Agents May Work Against Buyers’ Interests With Shortened Contract Contingencies

If you are reading this, you are probably a real estate agent or broker.  Most of the people who read Bloodhound Blog are industry folks rather than consumers.  Consumers DO read Bloodhound Blog but, all in all, our audience is mostly comprised of the industry grunts who show or list homes and write contracts.  Thus, I write this so that you, the agent or broker, adequately understands how much you are costing your buyers when you shorten the appraisal and loan contingencies on a contract.

You, as an agent, want a smooth escrow.  You want the inspector to come out immediately so that you can negotiate the repairs request within a week,  You probably wouldn’t trade your most scrupulous and detailed inspector for the least busy one to satisfy your buyer’s shortened disclosures contingency– you beg, plead, and cajole your best inspector to help you because repairs are a tangible cost; you can see, touch, and (sometimes) smell them.  The home inspection, and negotiated repairs, is how you might be judged by the buyer.

“But wait!”, you say.  “We may recommend three home inspection companies but, ultimately, the buyer makes that choice”

Relax.  You covered your butt with that disclosure but, in a transaction with shortened contingencies, the wink and nudge is going to produce your desired result,  For most agents, that is less stress when contingencies are due.  If J. Christ, GRI were an agent, He might renegotiate the inspection contingency time frame to get the most fastidious inspector but we know that He is perfect and we are flawed.  As long as you disclose that you may be compromising quality for speed to your buyers, you are doing your job.

Very few agents I know realize that they do the same thing to their buyers when they recommend more expensive lenders to meet the appraisal and loan contingencies.  Like most businesses, there is an inverse relationship between price and service in the mortgage lending business; it’s even more pronounced now in this high volume, low rate environment.

Our family business has licenses to sell and/or finance real estate; I have done both in the Read more

Listing and Selling A San Diego Home The BloodhoundBlog Way

I am a California real estate broker.  I don’t sell a lot of homes and prefer not to have a robust brokerage business.  My business partner (and wife of 22 years) and I make our bread by funding residential and commercial loans, the former in California and the latter nationwide.  Many of my commercial lenders require a real estate broker’s license to earn an origination fee

I refer (at no cost) some 8-10 buyer clients and 2-3 listing clients per year.  I stick to my knitting and refer out the brokerage business but once a year, a situation presents itself that I just can’t refuse.  This year, it was listing and selling a townhome in the Carmel Valley section of San Diego.

This new client was a referral from my friend.  The seller is an engineer so my friend felt that my analytical skills would match up perfectly with his needs but, more importantly, this guy was frustrated because his original real estate agent wouldn’t call him back.  He tried one of the “brand name agents” in his area but only one of the junior “team members” called him.  My  friend asked if I could just call him and help him get his home sold, whether I did it or referred it out.

I called him and met him at his home in May.  His home was a 1200 square foot townhome in a high-demand San Diego neighborhood.  The property was in perfect condition with designer upgrades to the bathrooms and flooring.  We discussed keeping the home as a rental but, in the end, he wanted to sell and asked me to list it in the Fall.

During this period, Greg Swann was talking about his listing and sales success using, among other tactics, a transparent marketplace (watch the video, it’s the third topic he discusses).  Greg has a three-step praxis for listing and selling properties:

1- price to fair market value
2- list in increments of $5000 (rather than the XXX,999)
3- ***  disclose offers as they are received,  in the confidential remarks  ***

I shared Greg’s video with my client and he, like me, loved the idea Read more

October 2020 Mortgage Rates Report: Cheeseburgers can only get so cheap

Why, if the Federal Reserve Bank is keeping rates at nearly zero, are mortgage rates rising from their August lows?

Try to imagine that mortgages are cheeseburgers and it starts to make sense.  Imagine that the mortgage industry is a lot like the fast food/casual dining industry and it makes even more sense.  In my last post here, I tried to give you some background on securitized mortgage lending (aka as ‘nearly every dammed loan being funded today‘) but just think of mortgages like cheeseburgers.

If you want a cheeseburger, you have lots of choices:  Big restaurant chains (like In N Out) sell cheeseburgers, as do big franchised networks (like McDonalds and Burger King) and tens of thousands independent “burger joints” in every burg across our fruited plain.

Now, imagine that there was a “Federal Meat Provider” which set the wholesale price of meat to make cheeseburgers.  A health crisis hit so the Federal Meat Provider dropped that price of meat to a stupendously low figure so everyone could eat.  Subsequently, the chains, franchisees, and independent operators dropped the retail price of a cheeseburger to an historically low price.  Predictably, people were lined up at every burger restaurant in the country, waiting 5 hours to get that cheap burger.  What would you do if you owned a restaurant?

Hire more people so you could sell more cheap burgers and (hopefully) retire when the Federal Meat Provider raised the price of meat again, right?

Well, it’s not that simple.  There are new rules about selling cheeseburgers and those new employees have to be trained.  Moreover, while the Federal Meat Provider is trying to keep cheeseburger costs low to help people during the health crisis, the various State Employment Agencies won’t let the burger restaurant owners hire just temporary / part-time employees without added costs and regulations.  Add in that the local School Board wants to levy higher taxes on burger restaurant owners.  On top of those problems, nobody really knows when the Federal Meat Provider will raise the wholesale cost of meat so it’s hard to predict demand beyond a 3-6 month time frame.  At a certain Read more

The Real Estate Correction of 2021

Over 13 years ago, I tried to explain how mortgage securitization would cushion losses to investors and lessen the negative effects of mortgage defaults to real estate prices:

Basically, the Titans of Wall Street never had to answer for the performance of these loans because the money managers wanted that last little bit of yield the risky or exotic mortgages produced. The rising housing market would disguise the loose guidelines (defaults would just be refinanced) and everyone would make their little golden crumbs as the vanishing loaf was buried deep in the breadbox. If that wasn’t enough, the lenders would buy securities firms and the securities firms would buy lenders, all of them buying time before the cat got out of the bag.

Then Alan Greenspan raised interest rates and all hell broke out. Rapid growth in housing arrested and the refinance boom stopped. Alas, the lenders and Wall Street Titans kept the easy money machine flowing. Think about it, it wasn’t their money, it is yours…so why close the bar tab if you never intend to pay it ?

Now…here is the part where you should be infuriated but don’t have to be… This crap has been buried in so many funds that it won’t have too much of a lasting effect. The debacle that we read about will be paid for by you, Mr. and Mrs. America with the $57,254 balance in your IRA account. And it is going to hurt you, probably to the tune of two or three grand. That means these HUGE default rates we read about MAY lower your IRA balance to $54,819 next year. If you’re 50 years old, it means that the monthly check you draw from that IRA when you are 70 years old WILL be some 38 bucks lighter because of this mess.

I was correct in THEORY but things never work out theoretically, right?  Just 18 months later. I posted that same article with a Mea Culpa:

I’m kicking this one up to the top, in honor of today’s events.  It’s a historical look about the early MBS markets.  Now before you jump me for my incorrect Read more

Mortgage Refinancing and Forbearance: Three Balls, You Walk, One Strike, You’re Out

One of the most consistent of the “old school mortgage bloggers” is Rhonda Porter in Seattle, writing over on The Mortgage Porter.  She offers no-frills information about mortgage markets, the kind of straightforward advice homeowners need.  Her blog is almost 15 years old.

I wanted to advise current homeowners why they should not accept the mortgage forbearance program, unless they drastically needed it and regret that I didn’t back in March.  The mortgage forbearance program was offered as a “no penalty”  break for homeowners– ask to suspend your payments and it’s automatically granted without any hit to your credit score.  While that part was true, many of my past clients found out that nobody would refinance their loan to a lower rate while they were in forbearance (it kinda makes sense, right?)

Fannie/Freddie offered specific guidance a few months ago; I’ll let Rhonda explain it:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offered clarity with their new guidelines this week. If you currently have a conventional mortgage, it is a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage. Basically, if you opt for the forbearance program that’s being offered due to covid-19, then you may not be able to get a new mortgage until you have have made three months of on-time mortgage payments. If a borrower has stayed current with their mortgage, they may still be eligible for new mortgage. There may be some variances with this depending on what type of forbearance program you have entered into as well as lender underwriting overlays.

Can’t refinance because your income dropped? Help may be on the way.

Last week, Freddie Mac published their Mortgage Market Survey, showing that the average rate, for conforming mortgage loans originated, was under 3%.  The company who performed the survey (Black Knight), figures that there are close to 20 million homeowners who can refinance now:

The company says there are now 19.3 million “high quality” refinance candidates, the largest number ever. This is 43 percent of all active 30-year mortgages. Black Knight defines a refinanceable loan as one where the homeowner has a credit score of at least 720, at least 20 percent equity in the home, and the potential for a 75-basis point reduction in their mortgage interest rate. These homeowners have potential savings averaging $299 per month, a national aggregate of $5.8 billion per month if all homeowners took advantage of the opportunity. That is the largest aggregate ever available through refinancing.

This is a stupendous amount of potential refinance candidates, maybe more than the industry has refinanced since March of this year.  To put things in perspective, I have worked in real estate finance since 1997 and these past 6 months have been the hardest I have worked – ever.  It means that my industry could be stretched for another 6 months.

VA and FHA both have loan programs which permit borrowers to refinance their mortgages, if they aren’t taking out money, without verifying their income – that’s a BIG deal as many borrowers have suffered income losses since they originally took out their loan.  Borrowers with conventional loans though, must have their incomes re-verified for the refinance.  In one respect, income verification protects lenders from making a loan to people who may/may not be able to afford it but, on the other hand, it offers no relief for borrowers who, despite the drop in income, have made their payments through thick or thin.

The regulators however, are trying to address that problem.  They propose to amend the definition of a “qualified mortgage” to include those which are “seasoned” for at least 36 months.  What that means to the “stuck” homeowners is that, as long as they have paid the last 36 monthly mortgage payments Read more

Vacation Rental Investing: Perdido Key, FL– Purple Parrot

How about a vacation property, on Perdido Key, Pensacola, Florida, which cash-flows with just 25% down payment?

This Realtor-listed property sold for $238,000 in November of 2019 and this FSBO sold for $242,500, two weeks ago.  Both properties are 2 BR 2.5 bath bungalows and are in the Purple Parrot Village Resort, a community of about 150 bungalows on the east end of Perdido Key, walking distance to Johnson State Beach, a half-dozen restaurants, and less than 10-minute drive to two golf courses, a dozen restaurants, Big Lagoon State Park, and the world-famous Flora-Bama Bar and Marina on the Alabama state line.

While there are no similar properties listed now, a few of the 2BR, 2.5 BA bungalows turn over each year and its; likely that one of these can be purchased for less than $245,000.  Let me walk you through how I analyze  or “screen” properties like this one for investing purposes:

I star by using the public-facing rental calculator on the Vacasa website to get a rough annual income estimate.  When adjusted for the amenities, it shows $45,000.  That is above the average for the area so I adjust downwards (to the average) to arrive at $39,000.  Vacasa (and most other vacation property management companies) charge a 30% management fee so our adjusted annual income will be $27,300

We plug in the following annual expenses:

$1500  for Repairs/Maintenance
$2800  for taxes
$8400  for HOA fees
$  300  for insurance
$10,788 to cover the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, for $183,750, at 4.125% (4.38% APR)

As a Vacasa-Certified Real Estate Broker, I have access to some pretty nice analytical tools so here are the numbers in a nice report.

The down-payment plus closing costs will cost you approximately $66,000 and, while it’s not uncommon to purchase these properties furnished, you may want to spend $5,000-10,000 changing/updating the furnishings.  Your investment then, should be around $75,000.

I can’t predict the future but I do think these properties will double in value over the next 20 years.  Let’s assume it only appreciates at less than 3% annually and, in 20 years, sells for $375,000.  If we assume selling costs of approximately 8%, that should net Read more

Three reasons why New York and San Francisco aren’t dead

“The reports of our deaths are greatly exaggerated”– New York City and San Francisco

The Bloodhounds have been talking about San Francisco and Manhattan’s death over on Facebook.  The general consensus is that they have been ruined by Marxist mayors (they have) and become much too expensive for people to live, work and play (they have).  The pandemic exacerbated these flaws and now that everyone is working from home, these cities are destined to crumble into ruin.

Greg Swann fired a shot the other day, right here in Bloodhound Blog.  I don’t dispute that both cities are in trouble.

This graphic shows the growth in year-over-year housing inventory.  While most of the country is experiencing actual declines in housing inventory (less homes for sale than the year before), NYC and San Francisco have more homes for sale than the year before.

Some reasons for the decline in housing supply are:

(1) homeowners are hunkering down because of the pandemic,
(2) some homeowners are in trouble and taking advantage of the mortgage forbearance program.— they are delaying the inevitable sale,
(3) new housing construction has slowed or halter in most major cities.

Greg Swann went so far as to suggest that cities might be dead forever, thanks to the internet and remote work opportunities.  While his criticism of poorly run cities is valid, the notion that the future of work is a “laptop in the basement” is not.

I am the one of the most tech-friendly Luddites you’ll ever meet.  If an app or platform is relatively easy to use, I embrace it.  Back in the early days, I was teaching real estate agents and lenders how to build IRL networks from social media.  I have been doing that since 2003.  The key component to success in online networking is to connect online but to meet, and develop a relationship in person.  Human beings are mammals and we like to cuddle.  The cuddlers will be more productive than the email-ers every time.  Keep this in mind when you think that humans will scatter to the mountains and do business on Zoom forever.

Here are three reasons why neither San Francisco nor New Read more

Eight reasons to own vacation rental properties

While we earn most of our money from our mortgage brokerage business, I started helping investors buy real estate some 5 years ago.  Working in San Diego, I have seen just how profitable vacation ownership has been for long-term investors.  If you follow me on any of my social sites, you will see that we just traveled to the Florida Panhandle to look at some of the best areas to own a vacation rental property.   Subsequently, we entered into a strategic partnership with Vacasa, the nation’s largest vacation rental property manager.

Here is an incomplete list of reasons why we think vacation rentals make sense for most investors:

1- Landlords get paid up-front.  When this COVID panic hit, politicians in every level of government instituted eviction stays, denying landlords the right to remove tenants who couldn’t afford the rent.  When you own a vacation rental, the typical stay is 7-30 days and you get paid by the renter before they occupy your property

2- The capitalization rates are better than long-term leases.  Properly managed, vacation rentals produce between 1.6 and 2.1 times the annual income which a long term lease would produce.  A vacation rental requires much more active marketing and management and, for that, vacation rental property managers take a healthy management fee but, after that is accounted for, the net operating income is still better than a long-term tenant.

3- Vacation rental properties are maintained better than those with long-term leases.  This seems counter-intuitive but, because of the active management, the properties are kept cleaner and repairs are addressed immediately.  The housekeeping service is usually passed on to the vacation renter and many of the repairs are covered by that renter if they break it.  Routine maintenance is addressed immediately because the vacation rental needs to be in top-condition to be rented again– tenants don’t “hide” small problems (which can become big problems)

4- Owners can take a vacation in their property.  While using the property can eat into profits, there are seasonal vacancies which can be expected and, if the property is within driving distance, the owner can use the property for leisure Read more

VA Interest Rate Reduction Loans (IRRL) and Forbearances

A VA Interest Rate Reduction Loan (IRRL) is a streamlined refinance mortgage which allows veterans to lower their interest rate and payment without an appraisal, income qualification, or assets documentation.  It is a simple process which, over the years, has been subject to lender overlays but still offers veterans a chance to save money on their mortgage.

Basic rules are:

1- the VA loan must be seasoned with a minimum of 6 monthly payments AND  at least 210 days from the first payment date.  This means that, if a veteran closed his/her loan in November 2019, with a first mortgage payment date of January 1, 2020, the veteran wouldn’t be able to close on the VA IRRL until July 29, 2020.  While the June payment would have been the 6th consecutive payment, the 210-day period extends through July 29.

2- When a veteran makes a VA IRRL application (sample), he/she would skip the income, assets, and liabilities section.  While it is not a VA requirement, most lenders want to know that one or both borrowers are employed so we encourage veterans to include their current employment information on the application.

3- the loan processor will ask the veteran and co-borrower to provide a copy of the old note, a copy of identity documents to comply with the USA-PATRIOT Act , a copy of the current mortgage statement

4- right after the application is made, a mortgage loan originator may present 2-3 options for the VA IRRL (sample), showing the inverse relationship between rates and fees.  Quick rules of thumb  for a VA IRRL  are:

  • the rate must drop at least .5%.  If a veteran has a current mortgage rate of 3.25%, the rate offered must be 2.75% or lower
  • closing costs, including the VA funding fee of .5%, must be recovered through the monthly savings within 36 months (disabled veterans are not charged a VA funding fee.  Thus, their savings are greater than veterans who do not have a VA-rated disability)

5- Once the veteran selects the rate and closing costs scheme, the loan terms are locked and loan disclosures are sent (this must happen within 3 Read more

Want to increase business? Answer your phone

Do you want to sell your listing faster and for more money?  Answer your phone

Do you want to work with more buyers?  Answer your phone

Lenders, do you want more loan business from agents?  Answer your phone

I know this sounds simplistic but more sales are made on the phone then are made via text or email.  This year, I made a conscious effort to ANSWER every phone call which come in.  I even bought a contraption which charges my phone and puts the calls on the car speakers.  The connection sucks but it allows me to acknowlege whomever called and to “triage” why they are calling.  If it’s a “money” call, I tell them that I will pull off the freeway and call them in a matter of minutes.  If it’s something to do with something other than work, I ask them to send me a text so I can call them later.

It doesn’t always work.  Sometimes, I’m a in a meeting and can’t answer the phone but by changing my mindset to believing that every single phone call represents a five-figure check, I am conditioned to sell.

Most importantly, our high tech culture has made incoming phone calls a “nuisance’ to many people.  if you are on the dialing end of the phone call, a voicemail or text, instead of an answer, tells you that you just might be bothering someone.  If you call me, I try to make you the most important person in the world.

You ARE the most important person in the world because you are the one paying my bills.  So call me at 858-777-9751

Real Estate Auctions: Not Just For Foreclosures Anymore

Two years ago, I started paying MLS, NAR, CA, and SDAR dues.  Since my wife Debra was taking on more of the lending responsibilities, I spent the bulk of my time working with the real estate agents.  Having MLS access allowed me to hold broker opens for my agents, hold open houses for their listings, and act as a de facto “buyer’s agent” for them when they were out of town.

I had a few “orphan” clients and, in the past 30 months,  I represented about a dozen buyers and listed and sold two properties as a real estate agent.  It’s not something I love but understanding the brokerage side of the business enhanced our knowledge as lenders.  We understand contracts, deadlines, contingencies, and conversations with our agent clients better.  Throwing mom and dad in the station wagon, showing homes, writing offers, meeting property inspectors, negotiating repairs, and closing deals has made us better lenders so I’m grateful for the experience.

Eight years ago, a local hedge fund type started an online real estate auction site.  I wrote about it here and was tangentially involved but it never really took off.  I think it was more because of the online component and less of the auction component.  Generally speaking, when tech types and hedge fund guys try to disinternediate the local brokerage, they lose.  Greg wrote about the next flop yesterday.

I have always been intrigued with auctions so it shouldn’t surprise you that I have followed Harcourts, the New Zealand real estate brokerage’s entry into the Southern California market.  Harcourts has been holding non-distressed auctions for two years now with tepid results.  I had a few thoughts about why its results are mediocre so I started to form a new firm; California House Auctions.

We are a vendor.  We have an exclusive agreement with one of the top auctioneers in California.  He’s held over 600 auctions in the past thirty years and is well known in the community.  We’ll be helping ANY real estate brokerage to sell their (non-distressed) listing through a live auction.  We’ll charge a fee for each successful auction (paid at Read more

RE.net 2.0

Here’s a preview of what I have in my mind :

1- Facebook ads (as an agent)
2- Value-added services for real estate agents (as a lender)
3- Non-distressed auctions for real estate brokerages (as a vendor)

I have posted a few things since the content slow down on Bloodhound Blog but a lot has happened since 2012-ish.  The market has recovered nicely and most of the contributors are probably too busy listing, showing or financing property to write.  Bloodhound Blog was on the cutting edge of the RE.net:  provocative, hard-hitting, curious, and innovative.

Let’s start howling again