There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Cooksquared (page 2 of 4)

Real Estate Investor

The National Association of Realtors is Simply Outrageous

This title truly comes from the heart. Reading the Wall Street Journal today, I stumbled across the latest report from the lead economist at the National Association of Realtors. In the face of overwhelming negative information and despite their own lowered forecasts, Mr. Lawrence Yun states,

Existing-home sales should be relatively stable over the next few months, holding in a modest range, with some pent-up demand growing from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines.” He continues on to say, “A modest upturn is projected for existing-home sales toward the end of the year, with broader improvement to include the new-home market by the middle of 2008

Perhaps he considers the third time he tries to shovel this to the markets will be the charm. I am not sure what it takes to be an economist, let alone head of economic research at the National Association of Realtors, but the first interview question must be “Do you have a pair of unbreakable, impenetrable, gigantic Rose Colored glasses?”

Before I move forward, I want to say that I understand that there are many different economic philosophies out there. From Regan’s supply side economics to our own Jeff Brown’s interesting economic theories, there can be many ways to interpret various economic indicators. Instead of spouting my own point of view, I will layout simple economic trends and let you the reader be the judge of where you think the market will go.

The Current Market Climate:

  • The Subprime mortgage market has been shut down, shutting out at least 10% (probably more) of the buying market
  • Alt-A (Loans below prime, but above subprime) mortgages have taken a huge hit, shutting out another indeterminate amount of buyers (~2-5%)
  • Fed chose to hold interest rates steady, resulting in higher expected mortgage rates
  • Adjustable rate mortgage resets hit many consumers in their wallet very hard
  • Time on the market has increased significantly for most markets and overall
  • Defaults have been climbing and have showed no signs of slowing. Additionally, defaults significantly lower market values, resulting in lower selling prices
  • Leverage finance troubles in the broader economy will have an effect on real estate Read more

Expect a Market Slowdown: A quick thought piece for the more financially minded…

Buyers and sellers should be aware of a general economic slow down in all markets. Everyone will feel the effect of the leverage finance and subprime markets. Since I have been writing about the subprime markets for quite some time, I will focus briefly on the effects of the decline in the leverage finance market.

Leverage finance typically covers loans banks and other financial institutions lend to corporations or large private buyers. Companies like Blackstone use the leverage finance market to buyout companies and REITs. Over the past few years there has been a significant up-tick in Mergers & Acquisitions, leading to strong economic growth. As finance markets close (or shrink significantly) businesses will be less able to get large loans at favorable rates. As buyouts and mergers shrink, expect a dip in the equity markets. Looking at the Dow over the past week bears this out.

Very few people beyond the financial community pay attention to the leverage finance markets. These markets significantly impact the large commercial real estate market. When financing tightens at the top, the price effects trickle down. This could mean a significant negative impact on the commercial real estate market is coming.

All of this will create a drag on the economy, which will serve to slow down most, if not all, real estate markets. Unfortunately this could force even more defaults, putting many real estate markets in quite a tailspin. Buyers with excellent credit that can afford to wait six months to a year to buy will have their pick in most minor markets and increased negotiating leverage in major markets.

Can I Still Get a Mortgage in Today’s Lending Markets? With Cold Hard Cash and Great Credit, Certainly; Otherwise…

On Friday, August 3rd American Home Mortgage officially closed its doors. That same week Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on Bear Stearns from stable to negative amid fears of firm wide exposure to subprime lending and the leverage finance market. If all that were not bad enough, the leveraged financed market has essentially shut down. The questions on everyone’s mind are: What is next, how will this affect the housing market, and will loans be available in the near future?

To start on a positive note, yes, there will be plenty of loans available in the near future. Unfortunately these loans will only be available to borrowers with good to excellent credit, who have a reasonable down payment (5-10%). Mortgage lenders and banks have gone beyond scared to downright petrified because they can only see the tip of the iceberg. For the readers out there who are not familiar with icebergs, typically everything above the surface (what one could see) represents 10% of the total mass of the iceberg.

Continuing with that analogy, most analysts expect this situation to get significantly worse before it gets better. While Bear Stearns and American Home Mortgage have been the latest news whipping boy, the market has quietly downgraded many (if not all) banks and mortgage lenders. Furthermore, banks know exactly what they are holding, whether they admit it or not. To soften the final blow, expect them to raise rates, charge higher fees, and tighten their approval process. Even though many financial institutions are being very hush-hush about how much of the bag they are holding, they are diligently working to limit any future exposure.

For a borrower that means anything outside of plain vanilla conforming loans will be very hard to come by. But we here at Bloodhound would be remiss if we only gave readers the gloom and doom story. Despite all of this, here are some suggestions that might help ease some of the burden for those currently looking for financing.

Get a GREAT Mortgage Broker

While this could be my Bloodhound tag line, this is the time where it will pay dividends. Many lenders Read more

Real Estate Investing vs. Stock Market Investing- Is there a Clear Winner?

Real estate enthusiasts have been sounding their trumpet during the latest run in the real estate market. Many real estate focused investors truly believe real estate outperforms every other investment by a wide margin and even go as far as to wonder why investors would choose any other investment vehicle. Our own Jeff Brown even took quite a swing at the stock market in his post, My 4% will Beat Your 10 Any Day — Stocks vs. Real Estate. In the other corner stock market aficionados contend that in the long run stock market returns dominate. As an investor in both I am here to definitively say neither dominates.

Starting with the facts: Long run real estate investment returns average about 3%. This is simply a year over year long run appreciation average (cnn.com report data), while the average long run stock market return hovers around 10%. It is important to note that anyone can point to specific year, or even five year, period that one asset class has outperformed the other. This is not relevant because long term investing is the focus of this discussion.

Many stock market champions simply stop their analysis right there. That is wrong, plain and simple. Of course, as the analysis goes deeper, the water gets muddier and muddier. The starting point is leverage. Very few investors pay 100% of the purchase price when they buy an investment property. At most an investor will put the standard 20% down in a direct commercial real estate investment. This means that an investor could buy 5 times value of an investment. For example, if an investor has $100,000 to invest, they could buy $100,000 worth of stocks or $500,000 worth of real estate. Using some simple math, after 1 year the stocks would be worth $110,000, while the real estate investment would be worth $115,000 ($100,000 + $500,000 x .03).

Unfortunately many real estate investors stop their analysis here. This is also incorrect. Not only is it unfair to compare a leveraged real estate investment to an investment in the stock market that is not leveraged, but there are a Read more

In Down Markets Realtors on Both Sides of the Transaction Need to Step Up for Their Clients

As the real estate market begins its tailspin, home buyers and sellers alike need to figure out how to play the real estate game. The time has passed for simply taking the lowest cost provider of real estate services. Realtors on both sides of the transaction must now prove their worth. In a down market, which many buyers and sellers now face, market knowledge and savvy negotiating skills champion the day.

The Sell Side

The most obvious need for good representation is on the sell side of real estate transactions. Realtors, who simply look at the MLS and price a home at the market average, will become serious liabilities to their clients. There is nothing worse for a seller than trailing a market decline.

When listing a home, there should not be a time where sellers are forced to reduce their price. This suggests either the seller had their sights set too high or that the real estate agent in charge of the listing was out of touch with the market. Regardless of the situation, every month a home stays on the market cost the seller pays holding costs. This could be additional mortgage payments, lower market demand, or simply the hassle of postponing moving plans.

Furthermore, in a declining market a faster sell means experiencing less of a price decline and a higher long run purchase price. When my wife and I wanted to exit our Detroit properties, we looked at the market and priced our house about 2.5% below the market average. This strategy was important because our house looked better than the market average. Initially, it looked like we could have gotten more, but it was clear that the market was declining fast. Even with our reduced price, our home languished on the market for almost two months. Luckily, we were able to get very close to our asking price when our first (and only) offer came in.

The flip side of that story is the numerous houses that stayed on the market for years! This is no exaggeration. There were houses that were still on the market a full two years Read more

A Real Estate Recovery in Early 2008, Don’t Be So Sure…

Chicken Little made the famous quote, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Would he have been more believable if he had said the sky is falling, but I expect it to ease down slowly and rebound early in 2008? This is exactly what many real estate professionals have been doing for the past six months.

Here are just a couple examples:

Bob Toll of Toll Brothers, one of the nation’s largest home builders reports to CNN,

I don’t see the market getting better until, at the earliest, April of 2008. But I do think that when a recovery occurs, it will be much quicker than it has in the past because of pent-up demand. You’ve got decent job growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, great corporate earnings reports and tons of money being created and sloshing around the world.

Why April? Why 2008? Since Bob Toll, like myself is a Cornell graduate, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will assume he has concrete data for this projection, but I really have to wonder if he is looking at the big picture. Access to capital has reversed course significantly and has now become a major stumbling block for many would be home buyers. Additionally, Congress is considering adding more rules and regulation to the banking arena, which will inevitably make lending tougher. On the other side of the equation, supply is hitting an all time high. Not only have many of the home builders over built, but adding foreclosures, and longer than average time on the market for regular stock really makes the picture look grim for sellers. It will be very hard for this equation to right itself in less than a year.

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, writes at Bloomberg.com,

We’ll hit bottom in 2007 in terms of sales, but we’ll continue to see price declines into 2008. Prices tend to weaken for about six months after inventory normalizes, and we probably won’t see that begin to happen until the end of this year.

While Richard shows a bit more pessimism than Toll, he too Read more

New Homes Sales, Market Slowdowns, and Investor Irrationality: Looks like its Time to Face a Correction

Tanking new homes sells should have real estate flippers and small investors worried. Today KB Homes reported a loss of $149 Million. Additionally, CEO Jeffrey Mezger remarked in the Wall Street Journal, “We can’t predict when market conditions will improve,” essentially ensuring investors conditions will not improve next quarter. Homebuilders have been feeling the pinch for over a year now, but it is finally getting serious.

Surface level analysis of the problems with homebuilders points to signs of a tanking real estate market and excess supply of new homes in some markets. Given the choice between a new home and a “used” home, most consumers will choose the new one. Additionally, homebuilders have the power to offer incentives like upgrades, favorable financing, and lower prices to move their inventory. Investors in hot markets that are cooling will find it hard to compete with institutions like KB Homes, Toll Brothers, Lennar, etc. This will make it tough to move, even the nicest flip.

Furthermore, this situation definitely signals a slowing in the real estate market. Despite what many have been saying on the Realtor/NAR front, investors and agents alike should be preparing for a real estate slow down. KB Homes sites access to capital as one of the mitigating factors affecting home buyers among other factors. This access issue will affect buyers, as well as more aggressive investors, who opted for no money down loans.

The deeper analysis suggests all of the negative news will eventually affect the market sentiment on real estate. Over the past six months the real estate market has seen the collapse of the subprime real estate market, issues with commercial and investment banks, mortgage rates rise, and issues with homebuilders. At some point investor and consumer confidence in real estate has to be affected by all of this news. While this news may not be the tipping point, investors should be asking how much more can the market take?

Investing is part fundamental and part irrational. At times the market seems to go 90/10 one way, and at times those proportions flip. As more negative real estate news emerges Read more

Buying Foreclosure Properties? Don’t Be the Early Worm…

The old adage “the early bird gets the worm” points to the advantage of being first to market. But, has anyone ever thought about the early worm, clearly he was not so lucky. Many of the people who are jumping into the foreclosure market now may be the early worms.

Typically, I am the first one to support jumping into a market that has sustained a significant decline in fundamentals and an increase in the foreclosure rate. The problem with today’s market is the lack of an exit strategy for this type of investment. Take Michigan for example, I luckily got out of this market in 2005 during a downturn. While I made a healthy profit, the investors who bought properties during that time are now the same investors in foreclosure.

The difference between the 2005 market and today is simply access to capital. Many foreclosure markets have two types of buyers. The most common buyers in these markets are low-income families looking to move into their first or second home. In the past these buyers were able to secure subprime or other credit neutral financing. With these vehicles gone or very hard to find, these buyers have been taken out of the market.

The other buyers in these markets are investors. Typically, savvier than families, investors like to get in for a bargain. Unfortunately commercial interest rates have been steadily rising and the prospect of moving these properties has been declining. The commercial interest rate directly affects the value potential of the property. Consider an increase in the commercial multifamily interest rate from 6% to 7.5%. On a $100,000 loan, that is about $100 a month payment increase. With rents holding steady in many markets, the investor will probably have to eat this increase.

Two to five years ago investors could simply rent a property out while waiting for a sale. That option has almost been taken away with the increase in interest rates. Additionally, having a renter in the property opened the buyer pool up further to cash flow investors. Now, the only investors left to turn to are the speculators, looking to Read more

The Real Risk in Real Estate Flipping

New investors rarely stop to address the subject of risk tolerance. People who have never done a single real estate deal see others making a lot of money in real estate and want to jump right in. They never stop to understand the true risks of real estate.

Most investors and books will tell you that real estate is a pretty safe asset class to invest in. This is certainly the case if you are buying core buildings or if you are employing a reasonable buy and hold strategy. Sadly, many investors hear safe investment and assume that opportunistic investing is just as safe.

If an investor is solely a real estate flipper, he/she is taking more risk than investing in the stock market. That might be a surprise to some, but consider the returns. On average the stock market returns 9-13%, while flippers should expect 15-20% returns on their capital investment.

This higher return is certainly accompanied by more risk. First, consider the fact that in the stock market your downside risk is typically capped at 20-30%. Very rarely does the stock market lose more than 10% in a given year. Additionally, a single blue chip stock is not likely to even have that kind of a loss. In contrast, a flipper has a very real chance of losing all of the money invested in a deal. The odds of this are even higher for a novice flipper.

Another aspect of real estate investing is the sweat equity or opportunity cost of the investors time. I can go into my E*Trade account in about two minute, buy a Dow Jones ETF (exchange traded fund), and essentially guarantee myself a 9-13% return on that money for 20 years. However, if I decide to flip property I either have to hire a property manager or I have to act as general contractor, organizing the work to be done. Either way, investors will still spend a tremendous amount of time working on site or dong something with the investment.

Taking Read more

Can an $8 Billion Private Equity Fund Affect a $1 Million Commercial Investor? It Certainly Can…

Addressing several people’s concerns about the state of private equity and the possible assertion that private equity could be the next fallout candidate, I thought I would look into this situation a bit more. For those of you who think that this discussion will be outside of the scope of commercial real estate investing, read on and I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised.

At the 8th Annual US Real Estate Opportunity & Private Fund Investing Forum several very important items of note were mentioned. The most significant item is the increase in fundraising efforts, which has moved up from $35 billion in 2005 to $60 billion in 2006. On the heels of that announcement, Morgan Stately Real Estate has just announced it has raised an $8 Billion fund designed to invest in Real Estate in established and emerging markets.

Before I discuss how these numbers will affect the common investor, I want to take a step back and clearly outline what a Private Equity Real Estate Fund or Opportunity Fund does. First, these funds begin by raising investment capital. The larger funds typically bring in money from pension funds, hyper wealthy individuals and governments all over the world. Then, they take these funds and make leveraged investments. An $8 Billion fund will probably invest in about $30 Billion worth of real estate. Investors typically expect returns of 12-20% based on the investment strategy and they expect to exit the fund within the span of 7-10 years.

These funds make a variety of investments. First, they typically invest in all major commercial property types (hotel, industrial, office, retail, and apartments) and minor ones as well (storage units, trailer parks, malls, etc.). Additionally, they may purchase Real Estate Investment Trusts, Mortgage Companies, Real Estate Services firms, etc. With $30 Billion to invest, any and all real estate investments are fair game.

Over the past 20 years the private equity industry has grown tremendously. While the major players (Blackstone, KKR, etc.) get all the headlines, many smaller private equity firms operate in lower tier investment categories. If KKR looks for Billion dollar deals, these firms will Read more

Subprime Lending Fallout Goes Upstream to Take Down Two Major Hedge Funds: What does this Mean To Real Estate Investors?

Two major Bear Stearns Hedge Funds face foreclosure due to their significant exposure to the subprime lending market. While this does not fall under the category of real estate investor, I spent last summer working for Bear Stearns and interacting with many of their hedge funds. Based on the very limited details of the stories out now, I cannot be certain if I have worked with these two particular funds. I can be certain; however, that it would not be a good time to be in the mortgage space at Bear Stearns.

In my three months at Bear Stearns, I met some of the smartest people in the businiess. While this is not an advertisement to work at Bear Stearns, I think they are a very well run organization with smart people. This of course begs the question, how could something like this happen to such smart people? Furthermore, with all of the subprime lending issues out there, what does this mean for borrowers who are less creditworthy?

Simply put, in my humble opinion, the subprime market will be doomed for some years (at least five or more). Since I know this site is filled with a ton of very smart mortgage brokers, I will outline my reasoning.

Consider the following information:

1) Many subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy

2) Major buyers of Mortgage Backed Securities (like Bear Stearns) are having issues with subprime mortgages

3) Despite what the National Association of Realtors says, the housing market seems to be taking a slow and steady turn for the worse

4) Major Banks have tightened their lending policies

Lets take an example of a typical transaction before the subprime fallout. A low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan. Some intermediary or mortgage broker, supplies them with the best loan for them from either a bank or a conduit lender. The bank/conduit lender then sells the loan to an investment bank (like a Bear Stearns or Goldman Sachs) to free up more money to lend and to remove the risk off their books. Finally, the investment bank packages this loan in the form of bonds that investors looking Read more

Status Quo Real Estate Investors Don’t Make Real Money

I have never been a huge fan of the status quo. While I have some appreciation for the mundane, I would rather blaze my own trail than do things as they have always been done. Interestingly enough, this really comes in handy when approaching investment properties. Doing what makes sense to me may not be the status quo, but it makes me feel comfortable.

Recently, I was looking to close a deal on a 32 unit apartment complex. When asked by my agent how many of the units I wanted to look at, I remarked, “Uh, all of them.” He seemed taken aback by this, and then mentioned that taking a sampling of the units was the status quo. Perhaps looking at five or ten and then extrapolating what the other units look like is a tremendous timesaver. Lucky for me I had all the time in the world.

Interestingly enough all but four units actually looked good, but those four units looked really bad and had a material effect on my offer and the amount of concession I asked for. Looking at all the units would have saved me about $8,000 had I closed this deal. Even as an investment banker, I cant make $8,000 for three hours worth of work.

I will also take this brief interlude to point out the inherent conflict between realtor and investor. That extra two hours actually cost my realtor about $380 (3.5% x $8,000), plus two hours of actual work he could have done securing additional deals. Clearly the status quo worked in his favor. I don’t mean to suggest that is why he mentioned it, but I do mean to suggest that it is harder for him to work in my best interest when our incentives don’t align.

As investors it is important to remember that a deal and all of its components must make sense to you. While the status quo is surely there for a reason, it may not be in your best interest to follow the status quo. Many first time investors or investors who are unsure of themselves fall back on Read more

Real Estate Relationships: Do What you Say you Will Do

The long absence is finally over. After a grueling finals week and graduation, a two week vacation, a move to New York City, and a failed real estate deal, I am back with the pack. Based on the great content that I have seen coming from the site, I can assume my absence has gone unnoticed. In order to come back with a bang, I thought I would share a quick life lesson about real estate. The lesson: Real estate is a people business, so it is important to do what you say you will do, and maybe more, but certainly never less.

Here is a quick example. My latest deal to buy two apartment complexes in Greensboro ended in utter failure because one person simply did not do what they said they would do. Before considering this deal, I wanted to be sure there would be enough financing in place to make it happen. While I could have really stretched, begged, and borrowed to get all of the 20% that I needed for the down payment, my trusted mortgage broker recommended I partner with a local investor. He assured me that he could find me a suitable partner within the 30 day due diligence period, so I proceeded with the deal.

To make a long story short, no partner ever materialized and I was forced to bow out of the deal shortly before the end of the due diligence period. Given my upfront nature, I had already informed all parties that this deal hinged on me finding a suitable partner, which over a group dinner my mortgage broker ensured everyone would happen fairly quickly. Fairly quickly, turned into days, then a month and still a partner had yet to emerge.

In the end the mortgage broker’s reputation was trashed after this deal. My agent, who does a lot of great commercial work in the area, has decided not to work with the mortgage broker again. Additionally, the seller’s broker has also black listed this broker, and I think it is obvious that it will be a cold day in a very hot place Read more

Avoid Being the Greatest Fool

The greater fool theory is simply this: Even if doing X doesn’t make sense, there is always someone dumber than me I can sell X to. Replace X with inflated real estate, sub-prime mortgages, stocks, garage sell junk, etc. This is the crux of bubble thinking. The major problem with this theory is that someone is always the greatest fool. It may not be you this time, but keep playing Russian roulette with deals that don’t make sense and it will be.

I learned of the greater fool theory first hand as an undergraduate in college. In the bubble year of 2000, I started my first online stock trading account with a hard earned $2,000 from my summer internship. I had a run of success you would not believe with a very simple (and very stupid) strategy. The strategy: watch what Internet firms report positive earnings, and then buy. Obviously I didn’t have a good concept of a DCF model or really understand what a P/E ratio was, but I did know that I was making a killing. In a matter of weeks I was almost up to $20,000.

Little did I know that I was simply profiting off the greater fool theory. Every stock I was investing in was insanely overvalued. With no real fundamental values to hang their hat on, the stocks in my portfolio fell as quickly as they rose. When all was said and done I had less than $500. I went from hero to goat in a matter weeks, wondering where I went wrong.

I am sure most seasoned investors have a similar war story. However, most new investors feel invincible. The problem with most new investors is that they have not gotten caught up in the frenzy of investing. It’s something akin to lemmings, when investors continuing buying even though they know there is no justification for their high valuations. Eventually, the first lemming falls off a cliff (sub-prime lending perhaps?) with the others soon to follow.

The question is why so many investors lose their grasp on the fundamentals? The irony is that it is usually fear of Read more

Persistence: The Investors Greatest Tool

People have asked me what it takes to succeed in real estate. Honestly, I really think it only takes one thing, persistence. Many people eliminate themselves right away by never starting or quitting after one bad experience. This business certainly has its ups and downs, but the people that keep trying eventually succeed.

Here are a few examples where persistence pays off. First, let’s look at the tenant from hell. No matter how great your screening process is, eventually the dice come up snake eyes. When a tenant refuses to pay rent or destroys the property you put in a lot of sweat and equity into, it can really push you to the edge. When you realize you just can’t throw them out on the streets, change the locks, and tell them to go to a hot place (and I don’t mean Florida), what do you do? How you deal with this situation defines how successful you will be in the business.

So how do deal with them you ask? First, begin the eviction process early. If a tenant is commonly late with the rent become familiar with the eviction process because you will probably need it. Additionally, never get antagonistic with the tenants. You can never win this battle because an angry tenant is a destructive tenant. Many new comers in the business feel like they can sue tenants. Think again. While you certainly can sue tenants, if they are being evicted they will probably not have any money for you to get from them. After the eviction process has started, the best situation is to convince the tenant to leave amicably. I have known some landlords to actually pay tenants to move out. On the surface this seems crazy, but paying a tenant say $100-$200 vs. spending $1000 (or more) for eviction plus repairs makes financial sense.

Another common situation that requires persistence is dealing with contractors. I have never personally had a project come in on or under budget. The bigger the project the more financial padding you should put in your budget estimates. Always have more money than you need. Read more