There’s always something to howl about.

Month: March 2009 (page 2 of 5)

Nest Realty, Jim Duncan’s new broker, joins the custom sign club

Long-time real estate weblogger Jim Duncan moved to a new brokerage recently — Nest Realty. As a part of their launch, they’re building custom real estate yard signs, the prototype for which you can see above.

Jim asked for my thoughts on the signs, and I’m going to go into this at some little length. All of this touches on the stuff we’ve been talking about since last week.

First, I think these signs are striking, very interesting graphically. The grid layout is sweet and fine, a very clean style of communication.

Second, I want that middle sign to be a hell of a lot bigger. My guess is that it’s 18 x 12, a very common size for real estate signs. We do our middle sign at 24 x 36. Jim’s sign is in much better taste than ours, but I need for people to know that they’re seeing a custom sign, so I think I need to grab them by the throat.

Third, my belief is that for custom signs to work, they have to have that paragraph of small text we use on our signs. The marketing objective of the signs is to stop traffic, not simply to promote a fleeting awareness of a home for sale among passing drivers. We’ve been using that paragraph of small text from the beginning, long before it was possible to make custom signs. We know from hours of observation that people slow down, stop, read the sign, take the flyer — all because they had to slow down to find out what that small text was saying.

There are some nice marketing ideas at Nest’s main web site, and the site for this particular home is worth a look. The HDR photos are incredible, and I want for them to be a lot larger.

This is a case where I don’t find the web presentation of the home to be at all satisfying, and that’s another one of the points that I hit all the time. We know from talking to our open house visitors that people will spend hours at a single-property web site if you Read more

Why should you buy real estate — and lots of it — now? Well, inventory abounds, prices are low, and interest rates are incredibly low. And there’s one other factor you might take into account…

Follow the tiny blue line. That’s the growth of the U.S. money supply. That vertical surge you see there at the right is, essentially, a doubling of the number of dollars in (virtual) circulation since August 2008. Every dollar you own will soon be worth fifty cents. And every dollar you owe will soon be worth two bucks. You do the math…

Victor Davis Hanson: “I’d prefer one gall bladder surgeon to fifty Botox experts, a good Perkins engine mechanic to 1,000 deconstructionists at the MLA, one competent chemist to fifty government attorneys.”

Victor Davis Hanson, a brilliant old Hellenist, here seeming more old than brilliant, wonders, “Who is John Galt?”

We sense we are trimmers and redistributors, and wouldn’t dare build a new dam a transcontinental railroad, a new 8-lane freeway.

Instead we would sue, file reports, argue, quit, delay—anything other than conceive a majestic idea and finish it, sighing, “It is not perfect, but damn good enough and will do.” Instead, here in California we are simply destroying agriculture by drying up its sources of water-giving life—a once brilliant farming that was the sum total of millions of brave lives from 1880 to 2000 who took a desert and fed the world.

Instead, ensconced in the Berkeley Hills or Woodside, our elites demand of better others to save for them not people, but a smelt, a minnow, or a newt-like creature that must have the entire Kings or San Joaquin River as it dumps its precious cargo out to sea.

So as scare snow melts, it goes out to the ocean, gratifying a lawyer or professor in Palo Alto that rivers flow as they did in the 19th-century, as millions of acres go fallow, hundreds of thousands lose jobs, and we feel so morally superior to those of the past who really were our moral superiors.

It is easy to dismiss our ancestors as illiberal, or with the caveat “Oh, but if we were as poor as they were, we’d have to prove just as tough”, but we still sense they were different in the sense of far better. When I drive up to see those Sierra dams poured in the 1920s, one wonders how they made such things with only primitive machines, and in contrast, are amazed with our sophisticated tools, we do so much less. 

This self-congratulatory generation can hardly, as we are learning, build a Bay Bridge again. Yet when we see on the Internet pictures of a new aircraft carrier we are stunned in amazement—we did that? We built such a powerful, sophisticated ship? We—at least someone— can actually still do things on rare occasion like that?

The American people are, to be frank, nauseated Read more

A Few Thoughts About Mortgages…..

Since I already sent an update out earlier in the week outlining what the Fed did and how it can/will impact the economy and the mortgage markets, I’m going to focus on a couple of other topics this time.

First I’m going to talk about the four most important things to know about mortgage rates. Then, in the lower section, we’ll take a look at a good strategy to consider when thinking about when to lock in an interest rate.

The four most important things to know about mortgage rates:
What influences them – contrary to popular opinion, mortgage rates are not tied to the 10 year Treasuries any more. For years they used to be and that made predicting short term market movements easy. Now they don’t and it’s much harder. So what does impact them? A couple of quick thoughts about that: 1) Market sentiment – is the market feeling good about things or bad? 2) Political manipulation – does the market feel that Washington is trying to run over Wall Street or is it the other way around? 3) Expectations vs. reality – it’s not so much that the news is bad as it is a question of whether it’s worse or better than it was expected. 4.) Inflation/Deflation and the value of the dollar. 5) Investor appetite for mortgage backed securities (aka how good are loans performing?


Why mortgage rates won’t go down to 4%.
According to what I heard and saw, there were experts on places like the Today Show and Good Morning America who were proclaiming that mortgage rates were going to go down to 4.0%, probably by Monday. There are a couple of reasons why that won’t happen: 1) The Law of Supply and Demand – the government is literally flooding the market with additional debt. If there is more debt “chasing”fewer investors, that’s going to push rates upward. 2) The Value of the Dollar – the dollar has taken a beating in the last few days and as the dollar gets cheaper compared to other currencies, interest rates have to go up. 3) Falling House Prices Read more

Priced Well? No Offers — Not Even Insulting Offers? My 2¢

Greg Swann just published a post lookin’ for help from the professional community for one of our own. Barry Bevis, a Realtor in Tallahassee, has a listing that’s been giving him fits. He and several knowledgeable agents around town are in agreement — the current listing price is where it should be. The house is well kept. The lot is over a third of an acre. Very nice yard, and a hot tub. He’s done just about everything right to get this puppy into escrow. Its own site. Buncha cool pictures. Even had a custom sign made. Still, no sale.

No sale? Not even an insultingly low offer.

I went to the listing’s site. Plenty of info, and many photos, easy to navigate, and easy to get ahold of Barry. He obviously cares, and has clearly gone the extra mile as he markets this home. So what’s the problem? What might be going unaddressed?

Before continuing, let’s be real here. We’ve all been where Barry is with this listing. How many of us have scratched our heads, totally mystified by a listing that simply seems to defy a mountain of empirical evidence dictating it should’ve sold a dozen times by now? I have, many times. It’s maddening. Shortly after studying what Greg Swann does to market his listings, I had an epiphany — well, actually two. For me it was a good news/bad news joke. On one hand I was elated to have stumbled onto such a gold mine — which is surely what it is. On the other hand, I felt like such a doofus as I mentally compared his method to mine. But as often admitted, I’m ‘Japan’. I’ll steal anything cool and make it mine — screw my ego. Thanks Greg

First, I realized as experienced as I am, and as many properties as I’ve sold in the nearly 40 years of my career, I still couldn’t carry Greg’s jock when it came to the nuts and bolts of marketing listings from A to Z. The guy is head and shoulders above anyone else I’d studied.

Then the second epiphany hit Read more

Put Down The Pipe – And Step Away From That Lease Agreement

Yesterday’s Unrealistic Sellers Are Today’s Unrealistic Landlords

Just when we thought we had finally convinced all potential sellers that the real estate market was in a crisis – and that realistic pricing was the only way that a sale could be consummated – we now must deal with the unrealistic landlord.

I’m not talking about the professional Leona Helmsley kind of landlord – they’ve always been around. No, I’m talking about the unrealistic sellers who are instructing their agents to continue to market their properties for sale… AFTER they have rented them out to unwary tenants.

Don’t get ahead of me, now. I know that this concept is not new. Home managers have been around for years… and they provide a great service to home sellers by furnishing the home – keeping it in showing condition – paying the utilities – maintaining the yard – all while being prepared to move out with 30 days notice.

Of course, home managers enjoy deeply discounted rents.

And therein lies the rub. The unrealistic seller wants market rent – while marching prospects through the home. A few days ago, I wrote a quick post about our new GAR lease, more specifically about Section 20 which reads:

Upon 24 hours advance notice to Tenant, Landlord shall have the right Monday through Saturday for 9:00AM to 8:00PM to access Premises of Property to inspect, repair, maintain the same and/or to show the Property to prospective buyers. In the case of emergency, Landlord may enter Premises or Property at any time to protect life and prevent damage to Premises and Property. In addition, during the last ___ days of the term of the Lease, and during any period when Premises is being leased from month to month, Landlord may also place a “for rent” or “for sale” sign in the yard or on the exterior of any dwellling on Property, may install a lockbox and may show Premises to prospective tenants or buyers. In the event a lockbox is installed, Tenant shall secure jeweelry and other valuables and agrees to hold Landlord harmless for any loss thereof. For each occasion where the access Read more

The Financial Post: “Aging self-serving demagogues who have spent decades warping the U.S. political system for their own ends.”

Is this the end of America? Canada’s Financial Post:

Helicopter Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve is dropping trillions of fresh paper dollars on the world economy, the President of the United States is cracking jokes on late night comedy shows, his energy minister is threatening a trade war over carbon emissions, his treasury secretary is dithering over a banking reform program amid rising concerns over his competence and a monumentally dysfunctional U.S. Congress is launching another public jihad against corporations and bankers.

As an aghast world — from China to Chicago and Chihuahua — watches, the circus-like U.S. political system seems to be declining into near chaos. Through it all, stock and financial markets are paralyzed. The more the policy regime does, the worse the outlook gets. The multi-ringed spectacle raises a disturbing question in many minds: Is this the end of America?

Probably not, if only because there are good reasons for optimism. The U.S. economy has pulled out of self-destructive political spirals in the past, spurred on by its business class and corporate leaders, the profit-making and market-creating people who rose above the political turmoil to once again lift the world out of financial crisis. It’s happened many times before, except for once, when it took 20 years to rise out of the Great Depression.

Past success, however, is no guarantee of future recovery, especially now when there are daily disasters and new indicators of political breakdown. All developments are not disasters in themselves. The AIG bonus firestorm is a diversion from real issues, but it puts the ghastly political classes who make U.S. law on display for what they are: ageing self-serving demagogues who have spent decades warping the U.S. political system for their own ends. We see the system up close, law-making that is riddled with slapdash, incompetence and gamesmanship.

One test of whether we are witnessing the end of America is how many more times Americans put up with congressional show trials of individual business people and their employees, slandering and vilifying them for their actions and motives. And for how long will they tolerate a President who berates business and corporations Read more

There are no second acts in American real estate listings: It’s priced right, prepared right, presented right — and the house still won’t sell. What do you do now?

Barry Bevis in Tallahassee is looking for help. And he’s willing to pay for it.

He has a listing that he’s having trouble moving, and he’s looking for marketing ideas to draw the attention of a buyer.

Here’s Barry’s note:

I have a great listing that just won’t sell…

I’ve given it my version of the Bloodhound treatment: Custom Sign, Website, URL and lots of photos. You can see the home by clicking here.

It’s in a preferred neighborhood with parks and shopping within walking distance. It has been well maintained and is priced well — according to comps and other brokers feedback. It has a great yard and a hot tub!

The negatives: After a year of trying to sell I know them! Small Master bath and No Half Bath. Tile Counters in the kitchen — our area prefers Stone. The cost to cure these “issues” is beyond what the seller can do.

We did start with it priced too high. The seller was “not in a hurry” and wanted to try a higher price. I said okay because he is a friend — knowing all along that it was a mistake. Now its in the ballpark and would appraise at the new list price.

I get a couple of people in a week — and loads of website traffic. But no offers. Not even obnoxious low ball offers.

So the seller keeps asking me what to do… Besides lower the price. So this month we are dropping the price 1K a week, a 4K price drop. That will make it show up on any buyers automatic web searches as “Price Reduced.” We are also offering to pay a point to drop a buyers interest rate, likely below 5%.

What else should I be doing?

I’m looking for ideas to ignite interest in this home and get it sold. I’ve got a $100 AMEX gift card to the most creative idea. Greg and I are the judges.

Step up and tell me what to do!

This is a tough problem, one I wish I were unfamiliar with. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “There are no second acts in American lives.” One of the Read more

The Fed Translated…..

Well, it’s time to do a little Fed translating again.   This one was a big one, so settle in and let’s translate it.    As usual, my comments are in bold and italics.

Release Date: March 18, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract.  The economy continues to contract – no surprise there.  But ask yourself, if the economy continues to contract, then why is the stock market rallying?

Job losses, 651,000 jobs lost in February,  declining equity and housing wealth over 20% of the homeowners with mortgages are underwater, and tight credit conditions not only in mortgages, but home equity loans, credit cards, car loans etc., have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending.  Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit businesses are having a harder time getting credit too. have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment.  U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. This isn’t just a US recession, it’s pretty much all across the country.  Although the near-term economic outlook is weak gee, that’s an optimistic outlook of things, don’t you think?, the Committee anticipates anticipates?  Is that sort of like I anticipate that I’ll become a millionaire by the time I’m 45? that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions translated – more bailouts, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus translated – the Fed’s printing press will be working overtime!, will contribute to a gradual resumption meaning we really don’t know when things are going to turn around of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued but they don’t say for how long inflation will stay subduedMy estimate is that we’re looking at 12 to 18 months before the economy recovers enough for inflation to become an issue.   Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that Read more

The Wannabe Cosmopolite

I choose to live in a big American city because frankly, I stick out like a sore sport in most rural settings and my accountant says we can’t afford London. One of my earliest pre-school memories was a Trenton to New York City train ride with my mother on a blustery Saturday morning.  How much of  that early 1960s day trip I accurately recall and how much is anecdotal family filler (pulled, kneaded and peppered over the redolent decades around my parents’ kitchen table) I’m not quite sure.  Still, certain sepia frames have been imprinted in my mind for life— gazing up at the sky scrapers whose dizzying heights give me vertigo to this day; creeping like a mouse through the bowels of  The Museum of Natural History, terrified of the mummies and the smell of all that marble; seeing  a man get his arm tore off by a taxi cab while standing at a busy Broadway corner…I’m pretty sure; sitting on a New York City phone book for a child’s eternity at  Mamma Leone’s, waiting for the dessert course to arrive.  Feeding the ducks in Central Park.  Observing  the landscape artists with easels and tams, their turpentined pigments slathered on thumb-holed palettes, probably all long dead by now but  full of  abstract perspective on that day.  Not peeing my pants for the entire afternoon.

A similar ferment churned in my gut when I first strolled the arrondissements of Paris; same thing along the canals of Rome; and Gaudi’s Barcelona.  And while I can easily inhale the woodsy fragrance of say, a Walden Pond (or even Dyer, Tennessee) without much complaint, I am clearly no Thoreau.  Once you think you see a guy get his arm torn off in Times Square, you can never really go back to the suburbs.  Not entirely.

As each year strikes like lightning, I find myself  being both drawn to, and repelled from, the urban twist of what once was Sandburg’s Chicago with its animal sense of outcome and yellow inner eye… ‘ hog butcher for the world.’  Liebling’s Second City.  On a calm evening the whispers can Read more

The quest for all the world’s riches is over: It’s in your iPhone…

The feature set for release 3.0 of the iPhone operating system was announced yesterday, but I think the photo above says just about everything that needs to be said.

Yes, that’s the iPhone serving as its own graphic equalizer user interface in order to maximize the performance of a third-party peripheral.

There is no one else in product design who thinks like this.

The huge benefit of naming things is that it enables us to conceptually separate this from that, to isolate particular objects or ideas so that we can think about their unique properties and potential.

The outrageous curse of naming things is that we tend to force-fit whatever it is we’re thinking about into the shoebox we’ve crafted for it by naming it.

Do you see? A public hallway is a shopping mall, and vice versa, but few of us can think of both at the same time. A mobile phone powerful enough to please Steve Jobs is going to be powerful enough to do almost anything, but only people who think like Steve Jobs can find the almost anything inside the phone.

Every other smart phone on the market is just a phone with some gadgets slapped on as afterthoughts. The iPhone is well on its way to being almost everything…

Just Because You’re More Visible Doesn’t Mean You’re More Valuable

What really is the role of technology in real estate today?  So much of the discussion regarding the evolution and use of technology today seems to be centered on SEO – what ever you do, make sure Google finds you.

You have a blog or website.  It has super SEO powers.  It attracts many prospects.  So do hundreds – maybe thousands of other agents.

Sounds great.  You’ve found me.  Now what?

When consumers find me, what makes them want me? Regardless of whether or not potential clients find me via the phone book, website or as a result of a conversation a past client had at a cocktail party, the real question isn’t necessarily how they found me, the question is – once found, what do I offer to my clients that meets their needs like no other broker can?

What is your value proposition?  Your value proposition transcends your marketing message – it provides tangible, measurable ways in which you meet the needs of your clients, prospects and consumers.

What is the role of technology?”  You can’t answer that question until you know what your client’s needs are and how you meet them.

The role of technology is merely a tool to provide a medium which delivers the desired results to your clients, prospects and consumers.

The emphasis on technology has been entirely too focused on how consumers find you and not enough on why they want you.  Just because you are more visible to potential clients does not make you inherently more valuable.  If you have a blog or website, is it aligned with meeting the desired results of your clients, prospects and consumers?

Having an IDX link or other MLS search tool isn’t unique.  In fact, search in general isn’t entirely unique.

If you’re found, what makes them stay?

What if a purely technology solution met the needs of consumers?  It’s possible.  If you can’t make it clear how you meet your prospects needs, someone or something will.

Who Needs Sit-coms?

I’ve always enjoyed well written television comedy and I’ve wondered lately why I’m not seeing as much.  What happened to the writers?  Believe it or not, they all moved to DC and are writing for our Congressmen!  Oh sure, there’s a dark edge to the lines they write, but it’s classic television comedy just the same.  The congressional outrage reported in this AP story on the AIG bonus debacle is a perfect example.

AIG notified all involved, over a year ago, that these bonuses were contractually due and payable this quarter.  Former President Bush knew, current President Obama knew, the various financial players in the administration knew and Congress knew.  But that doesn’t prevent Senator Chuck Schumer, D-NY, from issuing this power-drunk one liner: “If you don’t return it on your own, we’ll do it for you.”  (If I had written the scene Sen. Schumer would have exited the room directly after delivering this tour de farce but before going through the door he’d stop, turn and say “I’ll be baaaack.”

Turns out Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner did meet with AIG CEO Edward Liddy in hopes of discovering ways Mr. Liddy could renegotiate the contracts and all these bonuses, but Mr. Geithner “recognized that you can’t just abrogate contracts willy-nilly” according to President Obama’s chief economic advisor Lawrence Summers.  (Apparently, you can only do the old willy-nilly abrogation of contracts on mortgage lenders using BK judges.  Don’t you just love this juicy sub-plot on the importance of consistency running throughout the program tonight?)

At this point enters Representative Barney Frank, D-Mass, quite possibly the most culpable legislator in the current mortgage crisis.  A less confident person, living in such a LARGE glass house, would probably keep a lower profile but not our crazy Uncle Barney.  “The time has come to exercise our ownership rights.  We own most of the company.”  What??  I thought the administration was taking shares in the companies only to ensure that taxpayers are paid back.  Do you mean to tell me they are going to start running these companies tooI’m shocked, shocked to find (this) going on here.  Rep. Read more

“What do you mean, stop the party? We haven’t ripped off the new neighbors yet!”

One of the fun devices in Part III of Atlas Shrugged is something author Ayn Rand called “the policy of the microsecond.” Despite the high-flown philosophical claims of the looters, their actual motivation was never anything other than “the expediency of the moment” — one absurd rationalization after the next, justifying theft and visiting the consequences of that theft upon its victims.

Just about a month ago, as a comical palliative for the housing mess, I wrote this as a joke:

[I]t would make great sense to make immigration to America easier and faster. Imagine having neighbors who work hard, pay their bills on time and can spell correctly!

That’s the logic of the policy of the microsecond. We don’t want to stop stealing wealth from innocent people. We don’t want to amend our ways and do better going forward. We don’t want to undo the awful damage occasioned by centuries of accelerating criminal government. No. All we want to do is find a way to get through this crisis. We’ll worry about the crisis caused by this “solution” — the crisis of the microsecond after this one — later on.

So guess what happens? I might have been joking, but we live in a world beyond satire. From the Wall Street Journal:

The Obama administration should seriously consider granting resident status to foreigners who buy surplus houses in this country. This makes more sense than the president’s $275 billion housing bailout plan, which Americans greeted with a Bronx cheer.

The federal bailout forces taxpayers to subsidize overextended homeowners who bet on ever-rising house prices and used their abodes as ATMs, and it doesn’t get to the basic problem — the huge inventory of excess houses. We estimate that 2.4 million houses over and above normal working inventories are left over from the 1996-2005 housing bubble. That’s a lot, considering the long-term average annual construction of 1.5 million single- and multi-family units.

Excess inventory is the mortal enemy of house prices, which have already fallen 27% since the peak in early 2006. We predict another 14% drop through the end of 2010 if nothing is done to eliminate Read more

Seven Deadly SEO Sins for real estate pros…Vanity

Over next few weeks, I am going to post on several topics. An email a friend received this weekend was the perfect segue into something that I really wanted to point out.

Notice, please, that I am not jumping down Zillow’s throat for this blatant attempt at using people’s vanity to get them to take an action that they otherwise wouldn’t. That’s what marketers DO…online is no exception. SEO is no exception. Eric Bramlett included it in this post Linkbuilding basics. That’s an OLD post. Stroking egos is NOT a new marketing technique.

But this isn’t the first time I have warned people about widgets and badges either. Why do these guys still do it?

Hint: It works

Another reason is: Both my post and Bramlett’s are older posts so it bears repeating. Don’t link to local competitors or those who compete with you locally. Locally related high ranking sites linking to you are GOLDEN to an SEO effort. Google has no way of evaluating if those links are coming from a competitor or not. They don’t care.

For those who may be saying: “I don’t get it.” Here’s the linked e-mail above through an SEO’s eyes…

We like you. We’ve chosen you as a LOCAL EXPERT. (SEO eyes: You have a blog or site that has good standing in the search engines..we want a link…) Click here to get a badge (SEO eyes: link included) to put on your site PROCLAIMING how good WE think you are. (SEO eyes:Yet the message to the search engines is EXACTLY the opposite..it is how good YOU think WE are–hehe–nicely done! My competitor is now linking to me!).

Therein lies the rub. And the lesson, IMO.

Vanity is a Deadly SEO sin. Building your online authority requires you to measure it the same way that the search engines do…by those who link TO you (deeds) and not by being caught up in the praise of flattering words (words).