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Tag: mortgage rates (page 1 of 1)

March 3, 2011

Rage and Rates… a Tin Foil Hat Production

by

Real Estate Renaissance Man

Author website

I wrote the article below a couple of days ago for a blog on political and economic freedom.  I’m reprinting it here after enjoying some discussion on the matter with fellow Bloodhound and VA mortgage expert Brian Brady.  Besides it being a brilliant piece (of tin foil hat wearing rantings), the article does actually touch on an area that could be of great importance to our real estate buying clients:  mortgage rates.  You see (in an over-simplified explanation), when the world gets scared, money flows to safety.  Safety, at least for the time being, still resides in US bonds.  Though not always correlated, the interest rates on mortgages often travel in the same direction as those on bonds.  So if, for some crazy, unforseen reason, the world becomes a little apprehensive over the next 2 weeks, we might see mortgage rates drop.  The question is: when do you lock the rate for your client?  Well, if we knew the actual date this crazy, unforseen event may occur, we could watch closely and lock right up to the day before. Why the day before?  Because there are three possible outcomes to this disruptive event, and two of them are bad:

  1. It could turn out to be a tempest in a teapot, in which case money will quickly flow out of the bond market and interest rates will rise.  (Because of the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, when people sell bonds the price drops and the rate rises… I see people’s eyes rolling back in their heads… moving on then);
  2. Or, things could go as bad or even worse than expected and oil prices shoot up (geographical hint), causing inflationary fears. Because inflation erodes fixed rate returns, bonds sell off and interest rates rise in response;
  3. Or, things could go as bad or even worse than expected adding to the already existing fear – oil prices be damned; in which case even more money flows to the safety of bonds and interest rates continue to drop.

As you can see, of the three scenarios, two give rise to higher interest rates making us heroes for locking our client’s rate before the event.  If, on the other hand, we find ourselves knee deep in the third Read more

October 1, 2009

The Jobs Report – what’s it going to mean for mortgage rates?

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, it’s hard to believe but tomorrow morning is the first Friday of the month again.    Where has the year gone?   In some ways it has flown by and in other ways it seems like it’s been about two or three years.   Know what I mean?

Any way, tomorrow morning is the jobs report that shows the statistics for the month of September.   I’ve had a lot of people asking me what I think it’s going to show and what I think it’s going to do to mortgage rates.    I’m going to lay out what I think are the four most likely outcomes and their potential impact on mortgage rates.  At the end of the piece, I’ll put my “projections” on which one is most likely to occur.

The Jobs Report Comes In Better Than Expected – Remember, it’s not so much the actual number as it is the difference between market expectations and the actual numbers.   But, if the jobs report comes in better than expected, here’s what I expect will happen:

  • People will feel better than they did about the prospects for a recovery in the economy.
  • People and institutional investors will move money (lots of it – how much depends on how much better) from the bond market and cash and put it into the stock market.
  • The stock market will have a very nice upward swing.
  • The bond market and mortgage backed securities will suffer from the movement of money.
  • Mortgage Rates will go up.

The Jobs Report Comes in about as expected – status quo, mediocre, we just sort of limp along.   If that’s the case, I expect we’d see a “non-reaction” in the markets.

The Jobs Report Comes in Worse Than Expected – a little bit worse, but not a huge amount worse.   If that’s what happens, here’s what I expect:

  • People will feel worse about the prospects for recovery in the economy and we’re Read more
September 4, 2009

Jobs Report – did I call it wrong?

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, so far this morning, the market has reacted in a very volatile but not significantly changed manner to the jobs report.   Essentially the jobs report came in pretty much where the market expected.  

So, did I call it wrong by recommending a shorter term lock and a long term float guideline yesterday?   I don’t think so for a couple of reasons:

  1. We’ve passed the major economic hurdle for the next few weeks without any news that is going to significantly lower rates.   Between that and the fact that the new Reg Z rules essentially require locking in your rate at least 1 1/2 weeks before closing, it makes sense, if you are closing soon, to grab a rate and be done with it.
  2. One of the “big guys” at PIMCO was on CNBC this morning talking about how this is a “sugar high” rally that is based on inventory and cost control and stimulus funding (isn’t that what stimulus is supposed to do?) but that it won’t last.    When reality hits, the stock market will adjust and the adjustment won’t be pretty.    That has two potential options:  1) It would force money into the bond market driving down rates, or 2) It could cause money to jump to cash (remember last fall?) and everything would be really ugly.   So I expect there is still some lower rate potential in the next 60 to 90 days.

Have a good weekend!

Thanks!

Tom Vanderwell

August 13, 2009

The Fed Translated – and why it isn’t good for interest rates…..

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

My apologies for taking almost 24 hours after the Fed to get this up.   As I’ve done in the past, I want to go through what the Fed said yesterday and give some insights into what I think it means for the housing and mortgage markets.   You can find the entire FOMC statement at Federal Reserve.gov.    As usual, my comments will be inserted inside the statement and will be in bold and italics.   Here goes:

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. I think it’s important to notice that they didn’t say things are improving, just leveling out.   The Fed never uses any words without a reason. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.  I think that what they mean by household spending is stabilizing is that people have slashed and burned their budgets down to the minimum and aren’t cutting back further.   However, if you look at the Retail Sales Report this morning, it raises a question of whether household spending is stabilizing. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing that’s a nice way of saying jobs are still being lost but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. inventory in better alignment with sales – what that really means is that the jobs that “make things” are still being eliminated. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time a time – that’s a nice way of saying we’re in for a long slow climb back, the Committee continues to anticipate “continues to anticipate” is that sort of like, “Please, please please, I really really want it?” that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.  They have had this sentence in there for a Read more

April 18, 2009

Mortgage Market Week in Review….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Well it’s hard to believe, but another week has flown by.   Rather than spending a Saturday working on mortgage stuff and writing about mortgage stuff, I spent the day taking my 8 year old to a birthday party, cleaning out the garage and getting the pool ready for the season.  It was a good day for that.

But enough about me, it’s time to take a look at what’s happened in the financial markets this week.   Let’s look at a couple of key economic reports/financial news items:

Foreclosures – for the first three months of this year, many of the big banks and Fannie and Freddie had foreclosure moratoriums on.   What does that mean?   Basically that they stopped foreclosing on homes.  But, many of the big banks lifted the moratorium shortly after the 105% refi plan was announced and Fannie and Freddie lifted their ban on March 30.  The reports that I’ve read (and written about on Straight Talk About Mortgages ) show that foreclosures are spiking way up again.    What does that mean?  A couple of things: 1) Our inventory problems aren’t going to go away any time soon.   2) Bank earnings problems aren’t going to go away any time soon.

New Construction –Housing starts and permits both came in at pretty close to historical lows.   But frankly that’s not a horrible thing from a long term standpoint.   Let me explain: We have too much inventory.   In virtually all price ranges and virtually all markets, there are too many houses for sale.   So we don’t need builders building more houses right now because it adds to the inventory problems.    Also, we have a situation where in most markets, the number of foreclosures that are on the market is raising the discrepancy between the cost of existing homes and the cost of building a new home.  According to many of the developers who I’ve talked to, it’s almost impossible, in many markets, to sell a brand new home at a profit because of the pricing pressures.   So, until we can work through the inventory and also address the jobs issues Read more

March 21, 2009

A Few Thoughts About Mortgages…..

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Since I already sent an update out earlier in the week outlining what the Fed did and how it can/will impact the economy and the mortgage markets, I’m going to focus on a couple of other topics this time.

First I’m going to talk about the four most important things to know about mortgage rates. Then, in the lower section, we’ll take a look at a good strategy to consider when thinking about when to lock in an interest rate.

The four most important things to know about mortgage rates:
What influences them – contrary to popular opinion, mortgage rates are not tied to the 10 year Treasuries any more. For years they used to be and that made predicting short term market movements easy. Now they don’t and it’s much harder. So what does impact them? A couple of quick thoughts about that: 1) Market sentiment – is the market feeling good about things or bad? 2) Political manipulation – does the market feel that Washington is trying to run over Wall Street or is it the other way around? 3) Expectations vs. reality – it’s not so much that the news is bad as it is a question of whether it’s worse or better than it was expected. 4.) Inflation/Deflation and the value of the dollar. 5) Investor appetite for mortgage backed securities (aka how good are loans performing?


Why mortgage rates won’t go down to 4%. According to what I heard and saw, there were experts on places like the Today Show and Good Morning America who were proclaiming that mortgage rates were going to go down to 4.0%, probably by Monday. There are a couple of reasons why that won’t happen: 1) The Law of Supply and Demand – the government is literally flooding the market with additional debt. If there is more debt “chasing”fewer investors, that’s going to push rates upward. 2) The Value of the Dollar – the dollar has taken a beating in the last few days and as the dollar gets cheaper compared to other currencies, interest rates have to go up. 3) Falling House Prices Read more

November 21, 2008

Quick Summary of the Day…..

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, here’s a quick summary of the day:

3 Banks got taken over by the FDIC.   The biggest one was Downey Federal, a huge “Option Arm” lender.

While Citibank didn’t go under or get bought out, but their stock was 50% lower tonight than it was Monday morning.

The stock market staged a late day rally but still ended up way down for the week.   Why did it go up this afternoon?   Because President Elect Obama announced that he was selecting Federal Reserve Governor Tim Geithner.   Why did they rally on the announcement?   Best I can say is because they liked the fact that an “insider” who has experience is going to be taking over.

Pretty much the entire financial sector of the stock market got hammered this week.

The disconnect between Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities has never been clearer than it is this week.

Based on some of the people I’m reading, the way that yields on Treasuries have moved this week are indicative of huge amounts of fear and tension in the markets.

The Big Three auto makers showed up in Washington begging for money, didn’t get any and left us all with a feeling that no matter whether they get it eventually or not, it’s going to be painful.

After a very calm week last week, the volatility returned to mortgage rates.

Have a good weekend!

Tom Vanderwell

October 24, 2008

Mortgage Market Week in Review

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Here we are on Friday again.  That means that it’s time to try to summarize what’s going on in the mortgage and finance world.   I’m going to talk about a couple of main things:  the economic fundamentals, some earnings reports and the “margin calls” that are going on in the equity markets.

The economic fundamentals that have come out in the last week or two have all been, shall we say, poor.   Not just in the United States, but England, Asia and other places, the economic reports all show pretty solid evidence that we are either in or heading into (depending on where you are) a recession and that it’s most likely not going to be a short recession but more likely the opposite – a long and painful one.   I’m not going to go into the details of the different reports because it would be too depressing.

Earnings Reports (or shall we say, loss reports?)   I’m going to do something a little different this time.   I’m going to give you the numbers and then later in the e-mail, I’ll tell you who they matched with.   Here’s the numbers:

-$81,000,000
-$700,000,000
-$23,900,000,000
+$4,370,000,000

(oh and these are all just for the most recent 90 days).

Here’s the choices for the companies who made them:

National City Bank
Microsoft
Fifth Third Bank
Wachovia
I’ll tell you a bit further down which one did which……

Now for a few thoughts about what’s going on in the equity markets and how that has an impact on the mortgage and real estate markets.   Here’s an overview of it:

1. The mortgage backed securities market is a highly leveraged market.

2. As approximately 5 to 7% (that’s right, it’s only 5 to 7% of all mortgages that are causing this problem) go bad, the value of the mortgage backed securities (also known as Collateralized Debt Obligations or CDO’s) fall dramatically.   Since they are highly leveraged, the investors have to come up with additional cash, typically lots of it.

3. That is, in an oversimplified nutshell, what is causing the significant sell offs in the stock market and the bond market at the Read more

August 8, 2008

Mortgage Market Week in Review

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

So, it’s Friday again and what has this week been like for the mortgage world? Well, it’s certainly not been boring, that’s for sure! We’re going to talk about six different things in today’s Mortgage Market Week in Review:

Freddie Mac – They started the week’s major news by announcing on Tuesday that they had lost a LOT more money than the market had expected in the last quarter, like $821,000,000 in 90 days. That works out to approximately $380,000 per hour in losses. The markets started worrying about the likely that the government will actually have to bailout Fannie and Freddie. The credit markets get nervous (or more nervous depending on your viewpoint).

The Fed – on Tuesday it would appear at first glance that what they did was a big fat nothing. I’ve done a fair amount of reading and studying of Bernanke and his views and I think I’d have another take on it. What the Fed said on Tuesday was (my paraphrase ) “The economy has some risks on both sides, the risk of recession and the risk of inflation, we’ve made the moves we’ve needed to make, we will continue to monitor things to make sure that the outcome we’re planning on happens, we think it might be a bumpy landing, but we’re confident we’ll be fine.” So rather than a “do nothing” statement, it was more of a “Things will come out okay, just be patient” statement. Does that make sense?

AIG – Not to be outdone by Freddie, AIG announced that during the second quarter, they lost $5.36 billion (that’s $5,360,000,000 or $2,481,000 per hour). Their losses were in collateralized debt obligations (aka CDO’s) that were mainly fancy packages of mortgage debt. Hmmm, that’s a pretty big number.

Unemployment Claims – Initial claims for the week came it at 455,000, the highest since 2002. That’s not a good number.

Pending House Sales – depending on whether you listen to the mainstream media or some of the analysts who look at the numbers behind the numbers, the report is either: 1) A sign that the housing market Read more

June 27, 2008

Mortgage Market Week in Review – the Fed Translated….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Hi all,

I want to thank Greg and Teri and Brian and….everyone for the honor of being invited to hang out with such an esteemed bunch.  I’m really excited about it and looking forward to working, talking and “raising the bar.”

I’ll do up a post next week telling a little more about “my story,” but for now I wanted to put up the post that I write every week for my blog.  I call it “Mortgage Market Week in Review” and it’s my overview of what’s been happening in the market and how it impacts the real estate world.  I hope you enjoy it.

For this week’s “Mortgage Market Week in Review,” I’m going to translate the Fed’s announcement that came out on Wednesday at 2:15 PM. It will, I believe, help give us a better view of what’s happening in the financial markets. The actual statement by the Fed will be in italics, my comments will be in bold.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

That, in and off itself, says that the Fed sees things as having changed since the last time they met. The last time they met, they felt that the economic weakness issue was more important than the risk of inflation. Now they are saying that it’s pretty much a tie as to which risk is bigger.

Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, Remember, they are looking at the big picture and are looking at things nationally. partly reflecting some firming in household spending Household spending has firmed some, but a closer look at the charts (which I won’t bore you with here) shows that consumer spending is either 1) Spent on essentials like food and gas or 2) drifting slowly downward. So, I don’t see the household spending holding up, especially as people have to cut back in spending in other areas because of the cost of food and gas for their cars.

However, labor markets have softened further As the labor markets soften (a nice way for Read more

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