There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Greg Swann (page 203 of 209)

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Signs of competitive advantage . . .

I’ve written about our signs before. Counting the custom rider and the rental for the post, a configuration like that shown to the right costs about $275. The post rental is per house, of course, as is the cost of the rider. The top and middle signs are re-usable, but the weather is not kind to them. We don’t want our signs to look beat-up, so we rotate them out as soon as they start to look worn.

We’ve been playing with four-color ink-jet sign printers on the riders, and I’ve known all along that someday we would be able to do custom signs for each of our listings. That day may be today. We’re meeting with a sign vendor who has a massive six-color digital ink-jet sign printer. If I can get the kind of UV and scuff-and-scratch protection I’m looking for, we may make our move now.

This is Seth Godin from November of last year:

If you’re in any business where the cost to enter as a competitor is very low, you’ve got this problem. The minute there are big profits being made, competitors will flood in and steal them. This is why there are five times as many real estate brokers in San Francisco as in Steubenville, Ohio. Because the houses cost five times as much, the commissions are five times as great, so brokers show up in enough volume that everyone goes back to making exactly the same amount of money.

The only way to win is to break the rules. To play by your own rules, creating a market in which the cost of entry is very high, or even impossible. If you’re the only one, then you win, by default.

Mr. and Mrs. Homeowner, in addition to everything else we’ve talked about, I will produce huge, stunning, traffic-stopping, custom yard signs for your home in less than 24 hours. Is there any other Realtor you’re talking to who will make you this offer?

Further notice: Doable. Two days turnaround, which is fine. The funny part is, our current sign philosophy (which is version 2.0 for us) is losing the CRS Read more

The Long Tail in real estate photography . . .

Chris Anderson at the Long Tail weblog on how switching from film to digital media changes movie acting and directing:

“I think shooting in digital changes acting as much as film changed stage acting, or as sound changed film,” said Bill.

Why? Because film costs a lot and must be used sparingly, while digital tape is practically free. The difference between the scarcity economics of film and the abundance economics of digital is, as Bill put it, “the difference between pointing a loaded gun at someone and a toy gun. You point a loaded gun at them and they’re going to act different. A film camera is a loaded gun. Digital is not.”

The principle is the same for real estate photography: If you’re not paying for a photographer’s time, nor even for film and processing, you have no reason not to take a lot of photos and simply toss the ones that don’t work out.

Man! That Long Tail is everywhere!

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High phinance on the editorial page . . .

I lived in Phoenix when the Arizona Republic was still a great American newspaper, a daily example of how good a mainstream media outlet could be if it worked from fact, not bias. The Copy Desk — the folks who write headlines and captions — was rich with poets and punsters in those days, which meant a lot to me, too.

Long gone. The paper was bought by Gannett and over the last decade has been infested if not infiltrated with ideologues. Even the smallest item is suspect, but major issues are always reported from the slant of one long-range agenda or another. For example, the repeated mentions of allegedly homeless schoolteachers and firefighters is part of a propaganda campaign to pass ‘affordable housing’ legislation. Soviet-style, the paper will run half-a-dozen glowing puff-pieces on a pet topic on one day.

That’s the bad news. The good news is, they’re really bad at it. Anyone schooled in rhetoric can see right through it. Here’s an example from today’s Editorial page:

News flash: The law of gravity wasn’t suspended in the Valley. In last year’s sizzling real estate market, home prices and sales kept going up.

And up. And up.

At least one of four sales was to a speculator. Prices skyrocketed 55 percent in 2005. Sellers raked in profits as bidding wars drove up prices.

And now, an astonishing number of people are startled to find that the law of gravity still applies to the Phoenix area.

Ignore the real estate argument, which is really no more or less stupid than the ones that erupt, Tourettes-like, from those afflicted with enbubbulation. What matters is that finance is not physics. Equating the two is specious. So much the better, the idiot editorialist doesn’t even understand the law of gravity.

So what’s the purpose? To gull the gullible — among whom the author might nevertheless be numbered — into believing that economics describes unavoidable events and relationships in the same way that physics does. Proximate masses must accelerate toward each other, the lesser toward the greater? Yup, and if a market booms it must bust, if Moneybags got richer then Penniless must Read more

Trulia maptivating . . .

Jeff at Trulia.com ate my feed and set up what I needed to make my own map. You can customize many details. Note that while Trulia gives you a color palette to work from, you can plug in your own hexadecimal values for web-safe colors. Very, very slick…

BloodhoundRealty’s Historic Properties


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Real estate photography snapshot: Choosing a camera . . .

I keep meaning to write about real estate photography, and I keep not getting it done. Let’s consider this a first cut, to which I may return more than once.

Mark Reibman of Rain City Guide has written two great posts on digital photography for real estate, and we can only pray that he does more. I lack his talent, but the wonderful thing about photography is that quality can be an emergent property of quantity: Any one photo I take might stink, but if I take 500 shots, one of them might accidentally kiss the forehead of greatness. Film and prints were cheap, but digital photos are next door to being free. We can take lots and lots of photos and cull down to those that present the property in the best possible light.

Camera selection is always a problem. The two most-advertised features of digital cameras, mega-pixels and zoom lenses, are the two you need least.

Except for print reproduction, the best size for a real estate photo is 640 x 480 pixels — which is 0.3 megapixels. Ideally, your everyday camera should be able to produce that size image without post-processing. The photos on your web pages can be bigger than this, but not by much. If you try to load 20 images on a page, with each image weighing in at one megabyte or more, you’ll overtax most web browsers — well after you’ve overtaxed the patience of your audience.

What you want from a lens is not a long zoom but the widest possible angle. Most digital cameras have their widest angle setting at 45 – 55mm, if the lens were on a 35mm film-camera equivalent. A few cameras get down to 38mm. This is inadequate. What you want is 28mm or less — with reservations. The Fuji FinePix E500 shown in the sidebar is an excellent everyday real estate camera. It gets down to 28mm, which is very good for most rooms. The flash recycles fairly quickly. It will do 4 megapixels at the high end, which is good enough for lower-quality print work. But it will also work Read more

Losing the homestead to a sucker’s bet . . .

The Real Estate Bloggers have a nice post on one of my pet peeves in real estate, the lease option/lease purchase scam:

If you are serious about buying a home, spend the time that you would have rented a lease purchase and save hard, clean up your credit report, and focus on the opportunity. By buying into the opportunity for a lease purchase you are limiting your opportunities to one home and putting yourself into a relationship that could end up setting you further behind in your attempts to become a homeowner.

Songwriter James McMurtry (son of novelist Larry McMurtry) nails the issue in Choctaw Bingo:

Uncle Slayton’s got his Texan pride
Back in the thickets with his Asian bride
He’s cut that corner pasture into acre lots
He sells ’em owner financed
Strictly to them that’s got no kind of credit
‘Cause he knows they’re slackers
When they miss that payment
Then he takes it back

If interest rates rise substantially, we may see a return to the days when financially solvent people purchased homes with carry-backs, wraps or land contracts. But, for now, these tricks are just one more sucker’s bet for folks who got themselves into trouble in the first place by being suckers for just about anything.

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Feed the world . . .

Because I’m too stupid to sleep, I wrote software to parse my MLS feed into customized XML feeds for the real estate aggregators. I have Trulia.com done (because I want to play with their free maps API) and I have what I need to do Propsmart.com. Google Base, too.

What do I need?

More.

If you know of a real estate aggregator, hit me with a comment or an email, if you would. From where I am now, I’m maybe 15 minutes a feed to add new ones. Tower of Babel, but it is what it is. I’d be grateful if you could tell me who I’m missing.

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Mountebanks confounded: Phoenix real estate market refuses to go up in flames . . .

I wrote this earlier today as a response to a comment, but I think it warrants a post of its own.

Here’s the Cliff’s Notes: After a huge run-up in home values, so far the Phoenix-area residential resale real estate market has given back four percent from the peak in December of 2005. We have a surfeit of inventory, but I suspect that many sellers are loosely-motivated. We have a completely normal number of buyers buying a completely normal number of homes in a completely normal number of days on market at a completely normal level of discounting on price. The idiot newspapers cannot stop comparing current conditions to the middle of the boom, but if the current market is compared to 2003, it becomes clear that, except for the surplus inventory, we are in a relatively normal market.

Whatever might happen in the future in the Phoenix real estate market, it is clear that, after more than two years’ worth of predictions of imminent doom, our oft foretold Armageddon has not yet come to pass. These facts are documented here. The blockquoted matter is snipped from the remarks of my interlocutor.

What makes you so certain that the majority of individuals who are re-selling at the moment are “loosely motivated” as you say?

First-hand experience and peering into the MLS. The surge in inventory started about September of 2005, and, from the beginning, I had the strong impression that many of the sellers were owner-occupants looking to cash out at the top of the market. When I show, I see a lot of homes that are not market-ready. A significant number of homes aren’t even available to be shown.

It seems that this housing run-up has featured a lot of speculation from “flippers” who bought as an investment and plan on selling for a profit.

I do not have this impression. Certainly most of the homes I’m showing (and most of those I represent) are owner-occupied. I have investors with homes for sale right now, but none at fire-sale prices. To the contrary, my investors are doing very well.

For what it’s worth, most mainstream media reports Read more

“I feel like the Dr. Phil of real estate . . . “

Glen Creno of the Arizona Republic catches sight of The Mole:

That’s especially true these days in metropolitan Phoenix’s post-boom housing market, where nearly everything has reversed since last year’s frenzy. The number of homes for sale on the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service increased nearly four times from June 2005 to last month, when it hit a level nearly double what experts consider healthy. Last year, homes sold in about three weeks. Now, it’s about triple that.

Some of the post-boom market figures are closer to historic Valley norms, but many homeowners had their assumptions of what a house is worth and how quickly it should sell recalibrated by the buying craze.

If you can get your mind past the sad fact that the Republic has never heard of a year before last year, it’s actually a fun article about the added value Realtors can bring to their clients.

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How to turn $1.00 into $27,000 in eight years . . .

That sounds like a late-night TV pitch, but it’s actually possible in residential real estate. Housing is distinct from other investment vehicles in important respects. Unlike securities, real estate is a hard asset with an enduring intrinsic value. There are huge tax benefits accruing from owning real property, either as an owner-occupant or an investor. Most significantly, real estate can be leveraged up to 100% of its value.

Yes, you can buy a home with “nothing down.” Through the masquerade of a seller concession, you can even roll the closing costs into the loan, so that you can take possession of a rental property with absolutely no money out of pocket.

Why would you want to do this? Because the purpose of investing your money in real estate is not to own it but to profit from it. Real estate investment books are filled with bad ideas — never buy a cash-flow negative property, buy the cheapest home you can find, buy four-plexes in challenged neighborhoods, pay ahead on your mortgage to increase your equity. These are all terrible ideas because your sole objective should be cash-on-cash return: How much money did you take out of your pocket at the start of the investment, and how much money did you put back into your pocket at the end.

Is a cash-flow positive property a bad thing? No, but a home that is cash-flow negative — if you can afford the negatives out of other sources of income — can be a much better cash-on-cash investment.

Buying cheap is usually a terrible idea. The money from real estate investing comes from appreciation, not rents. Unless you convert the property to a higher and better use, what starts cheap usually stays cheap.

In the same way, buying multi-family properties or other homes in bad neighborhoods is unlikely to be a winning strategy. Your ratio of rents to costs may be better, but your appreciation will almost certainly be worse than buying in a more-avidly-desired neighborhood.

And paying ahead on your mortgage is just dumb no matter where you buy. With a 100% leveraged property, every penny of appreciation is Read more

Blithering Bubbleheads lathered up into a dither . . .

The BubbleBrains swooped in en masse today, having only just now discovered my 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market. Courage, confidence and competence are often found together in a solitary soul, but cowardice, cowering and impotence — these are the attributes of character of men who run in packs. I am more than libertarian enough to let them go to hell in their own way, but it seems only common courtesy to point the way. So I sent them hither and thither — blithering Bubbleheads lathered up into a dither. Now that’s just good, clean fun.

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Catching up — for now . . .

I live in Safari, an exceptionally adept tabbed web browser. In consequence, I can pile up page after page of stuff, each crammed with semi-organized tabs, that I intend to deal with later. Well, fast is the new slow and later is now — at least for the moment.

How will the TruZillia APIs make money? Volume! Baron Briefs has a richer answer:

My initial thought on why each would do this: By opening up Zestimates and Zindices to the masses, Zillow is following in the foot steps of major players like Amazon and Google…build an API, let others innovate off the technology, and then acquire the best of breed. Remember, they recently picked up an extra $25 million to “broaden their product offering”. As far as TruliaMap, it’s likely an attempt to win over agents and brokers who haven’t warmed up to the idea of their website being crawled and scraped. Now, they get a cool widget for their website and Trulia gets access to more listings.

Galen Ward at Rain City Guide has more, including sightings of the Great Kong, the 900 pound gorilla that is Google. And: Will brokers embrace Trulia’s maps?:

In other news, Trulia is now letting you post their listings on your site. They say it’s for agents and brokers, but do agents and brokers really want to steer people away from their web sites? If a visitor clicks on More details… they are whisked to the listing agent’s website. I predict that it will mostly be used by bloggers and non-real estate people.

The Real Estate Newsblog takes exception, sotto voce, to to my criticisms of Zillow.com’s epistemology:

I guess a significant problem for Zillow at the moment is credibility. Some suggest that Zillow’s “Zestimates” are way off base, but since they’re still in beta, it’s probably slightly premature to be overly critical at this point, notwithstanding the near $60 million they’ve got in seed money.

In fact, for the reason I named, Zillow.com cannot ever produce a reliable evaluation of a house. This is not a matter of refinement, it’s a fundamental defect in the epistemological model they’re working from. Read more