There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Greg Swann (page 205 of 209)

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Wells Fargo to offer 40-year mortgages; ninnies aghast as expected

You don’t have to be completely impervious to facts to write for the Arizona Republic, but it helps:

To counteract slow equity build-up, borrowers might want to couple a 40-year term with a biweekly payment schedule, which results in the equivalent of one extra monthly mortgage payment yearly. A biweekly schedule can cut a 40-year term to about 29 years, Rogers said, allowing for faster equity increases and less interest paid over time.

Or you could just move every three to five years, like everyone else.

Update: Another ninny:

But the loan comes with a big asterisk. Non-conforming loans — essentially those for more than $417,000 on single-family homes this year — are amortized over 40 years but must be paid off with a balloon payment at the end of 30 years.

Not only are not going to move for 40 years, you’re not even going to refinance for the first 30 years.

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Debunking Zillow.com . . .

Zillow.com got itself a ton of new venture capital yesterday, so today seems like a fine time to deconstruct its praxis.

When Zillow was brand new, Catherine Reagor, the dippy local real estate reporter for the Arizona Republic wrote:

Want a reality check? Go to zillow.com, a new Web site with a program that calculates a home’s value for free. It values several Valley homes for tens of thousands less than the price listed on them.

At the time, I said this in response:

If you want to know what your house is worth, do not go to Zillow.com, which delivers completely useless estimates of value for free. Even Net Value Central, a tool used by professionals, lags the market by a month or more. The only way to price a house is to work as rigorously as possible from current and recently-sold listings for extremely similar properties. If you price your house to sell from sources like zillow.com, you will give thousands of dollars away. If you rely on zillow.com to tell you how much to offer on a home, you will see it sold to someone else.

(You can prove all this to your own satisfaction, if you like. Most of Ms. Reagor’s mistakes seem to come from falling in love with ideas she doesn’t check out. Here she tells us that she ran Zillow.com on live listings and found it came in much lower than the listed prices. How did it do against sold listings? She didn’t check, but you can. Run Zillow.com on the sold homes documented in your local section of the Republic. You’ll see that, time after time, Zillow.com is substantially under real-life market results. It’s a useless toy, which Ms. Reagor might have discovered on her own had she bothered to test it properly.)

Just lately, I needled the Zillowites a little more:

All right, here’s the deal with Zillow.com:

I decide I’m going to buy you a pair of designer jeans, nothing but the best for you. I know that fit is important, so I go to three of your best friends to get their sizes. Not yours, theirs. I strike Read more

Word-slinging in the Rain — or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the blog . . .

None of this is new to me — except for the parts that are.

I’ve been writing on the nets since before there were nets. Since BBS systems — I ran two of them at different times of my life. Since CompuServe was a time-share system called MicroNet that charged $3.00 an hour for half-duplex transmission at 300 baud.

(Think about that! “Baud” is Bits of Audio Data. My first modem had an acoustic coupler that attached to a phone receiver and transmitted data with actual, annoyingly audible sound. It raced along at 300 bits per second, which sounds slow but is actually about half-again faster than a really fast typist. The connection through which I am by now continuously enthralled is only about 10,000 times faster than that.)

I’ve been writing on the nets since the time when you would log on, suck down everything you wanted to look at as fast as you could, read and respond off-line, then log back on to blast back your own contributions without wasting a second. I’ve been writing on the nets since waiting up for the “off-peak” hours represented a substantial savings.

The funny things is, when the technology was that grossly inadequate, that obscenely expensive, I was writing maybe 8,000 words a day, seven days a week. And as lousy as everything was, it was a whole lot better than working on a 900 pound IBM Selectric typewriter.

I can barely believe the things I did in those days. With my trusty soldering gun, I built myself a little NULL modem that I could configure on the fly, so I could liberate access wherever I found a temporarily mute dumb terminal. I was young and possessed at the time of a multi-faceted morality, and I tended to think of electrical power and underutilized bandwidth as mine to appropriate.

I wrote through generation after generation of computer hardware and network topography, avidly connecting machines that were never meant to be connected and connecting my own computers to a topology that was still called Arpanet when I first started playing with it.

I worked in Usenet for years, and I Read more

Bees have tails?

Seth Godin on Long Tail search term analytics. Identifying strong Long Tail keywords much minimizes your competition per prospect. I think buying the Pay Per Click terms on the keywords you identify would increase your click rate: The organic hit says that you have valid content, while the Pay Per Click hit says that you are really in business, two mutually-reinforcing marketing messages.

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Carnival of Real Estate: If you love your clients, set them free…

Searchlight Crusade is hosting this week’s Carnival of Real Estate. BloodhoundBlog is featured, insisting that there is always room at the top, and we are lucky to be among such an august company. Everything is worth reading, but two posts stand out for me: Spotlight Realty’s practical example of the risk of letting an unscrupulous agent “buy” your listing by promising you a higher price than the market warrants. And The Reality of Real Estate weighs in on a weighty topic: How exclusive employment agreements can be a disservice to the client.

On the latter point, here is language we routinely use on our Buyer Broker Agreements:

This agreement will be terminated without recourse upon written notice by either party.

“Either party” means I get to fire them if I want to, too (and I have done this). “Without recourse” means clients don’t get to fire me and then sue me. I don’t know that that clause will hold up in court, but it’s worth a shot. We use slightly different language on listing contracts, to make it plain that you don’t get to fire us when we’re already under contract (and, of course, practically speaking, as a matter of agency I cannot fire any client when doing so would be to the client’s detriment; a ship’s captain cannot resign under weigh). But, recalling that everything we do is marketing, granting clients the power to jump ship, if they feel they must, is a very effective way of winning their hearts and minds. If you love your clients, set them free…

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Is all video good video?

The Real Estate Bloggers have a post on using YouTube video to sell homes:

As more people are using high speed bandwidth, the smart real estate agents are using tools such as YouTube to put listings on the internet. This McKinney, Texas real estate agent put together a 40 second teaser video that gives potential buyers a view of this golf course home.

I don’t hate the idea, in general, but I have specific caveats. First, the cited video isn’t really a video, it’s Ken Burns-style panning and zooming on still photos. Second, the house doesn’t seem to me to warrant a big send-up. An Ugly Step Sister with her own Fairy Godmother is still an Ugly Step Sister. Third, and much worse, YouTube.com‘s video quality is… much worse. For now, at least, a first-quality virtual tour — or better-quality video — seems like a better choice.

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Oh, good lord! They’ve got one of our own!

This morning’s Arizona Republic has a little featurette on a housing bubble weblog in Gilbert. It’s called the Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog, but I think would it be more sonorous if it were to be named the “Housing Doom Housing Bubble Housing Blog” or even the “Housing Doom Housing Bubble Housing Blog Housing.” After all, soon enough there will be no housing, according to the BubbleHeads. That notwithstanding, the Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog insists that, “The housing bubble is getting ready to burst.” That sounds like an ascription of purpose to me, and I’m left wondering why the housing bubble doesn’t take itself down to the Doc-in-the-Box to have itself lanced. I mean, who wants bubble pus all over the carpet?

For what it’s worth, the Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog is not as amazingly daft as some other BubbleBlogs. But so close to home… And in Gilbert no less, perennially the fastest growing small city in America… Think about it: How do you go about seeing faces in clouds in a place where there are no clouds?

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Phoenix Metroblogging celebrates its first anniversary with 30 reasons to love Phoenix

From the Republic:

Your first haboob. Light rail in other cities. Where to see good art.

These topics are regularly hashed out on a collective blog focused solely on the Valley. The site, Phoenix Metroblogging, turned 1 year old Wednesday. And to celebrate, the Weblog has been counting down 30 things to love about Phoenix.

And yes, haboob is on the list, with loving the transient nature of residents as No. 1.

Metroblogging is one of several hyperlocal, city-specific Web sites in 49 cities around the world. The site generates a daily feed of headlines from its members, so one could read postings from Dubai to Houston to Tokyo. Content isn’t filtered or edited.

In Phoenix, the blog draws together different perspectives from throughout the Valley.

Phoenix Metroblogging has that Alt-Phx kind of pomo vibe that can wear thin the further you get from the Melrose Curve. Indecipherable? Precisely! Even so, enGoogled, “the top 30 things I love about Phoenix” is fun reading.

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Having trouble getting your house sold? Sell it to ASU!

Arizona State University, a tax-payer funded institution whose apparent purpose is to salvage poorly-thought-out commercial real estate investments, races to the rescue of another white elephant:

Arizona State University has struck a multiyear deal with downtown Phoenix’s only shopping mall and plans to use it as a temporary student union for its new college campus.

The university will lease about 4,000 square feet of space at the Arizona Center – an outdoor restaurant, retail and office complex at Third and Van Buren streets – and hopes to make it available to students for meetings and social gatherings by September.

The student union space will be directly above the AMC Theatres on the mall’s northern end.

The terms of the deal are still being finalized, but both ASU and the shopping center stand to benefit from the arrangement.

University officials, who have just weeks to go before the new Phoenix campus opens, are feverishly looking for ways to boost the student-life appeal of the downtown area. The Arizona Center has long been underutilized as a shopping destination. Partnering with the university could mean a substantial boost in the center’s foot traffic.

Alas, unless you’re wired with City Hall, they probably won’t take your house off your hands…

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MarketPulse…

I had a pretty good turn-out for my open houses today. Cathy normally does these two, may god bless her aching feet, but she had to work a third open house. The homes I worked were in the F.Q. Story Historic District of Phoenix. When the real estate market is normal, the streets down there are aswarm with huge, expensive vehicles, all cruising at about seven miles an hour. It’s been a lousy summer for cruisers — a lousy summer for real estate — but the cruisers were out in force today. I have three theories why this might be so:

  1. People eventually want to look at houses more than they want to say, “It’s too dang hot to look at houses!”
  2. The itch to buy houses, epidemic in Phoenix, can be treated but never completely cured.
  3. The Arizona Republic has failed to say something poisonous about the residential real estate market for seven days in a row, so buyers think it’s safe to come out and shop.

Whatever the reason, it was fun to work at an open house for a change.

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You vill grow as you are told to grow!

The model is a general guide, not a strict equation, and shows Phoenix’s fringe cities have the potential to become regional destinations.

Well, duh!

The quote is from the Arizona Republic’s latest mash note about the beauty, glory and power of central planning.

If you don’t like their plan, don’t worry. After 160 years and 160 million corpses, they have learned precisely nothing, so they’re going to ram it down your throat like it or don’t.

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Show us your house!

We have another web site in the works, DistinctivePhoenix.com. It’s hugely alpha right now, partly because of philosophy issues and partly because we haven’t been able to make the time to do the things that need to be done to get it ready to go live.

But: I am putting together a post for BloodhoundBlog about technologies Realtors will need to have mastered to prosper in the 21st Century, and there is a nice little demonstration at that site.

It’s called Show Us Your House! It’s a form that takes your input and then builds a custom web page from the information you give it. In the long run, those web pages will be organized by other software so that people can look at them sorted in various ways. We’ll add ratings, too, for the look and feel of real Web 2.0.

But for now, this is something you can play with, if you like. If you’ll Show Us Your House!, we’ll show it off here.

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“The seller paid my closing costs — with my money!”

Not all of the calls I get in response to my Republic columns are irksome. I like the calls I get from real people, rather than Realtors or brokers. Very few of them are viable, in-the-market, potential clients, but that’s not why I write the column. On the other hand, a brief telephone call is not the best way for a person to wrap his mind around a new idea.

As an example, the first call I had yesterday was about the “Who pays whom” article. He was a very sweet man, but he insisted I must be wrong, because the seller of his home had paid his closing costs.

I explained to him that I write deals that way all the time, that I prefer to do things that way no matter what the buyer’s financial circumstances, because, for now at least, retaining your own cash is usually more profitable that the interest-cost of the additional borrowed funds.

But — emphasize that — but: It doesn’t matter. You’re paying your own closing costs either way. If you pay them in cash, you can watch the money come out of your checking account. But if “the seller pays the closing costs” all you’re doing is exchanging one price discount for another. Your money stays in your checking account because you are paying more for the home and financing the closing costs.

“But, but, but–,” he sputtered.

“I know. This is hard. If the seller hadn’t paid your closing costs, would the purchase price have been the same?”

“Hell, no!”

“So you took a three percent discount in closing costs instead of shaving three percent off the price.”

“That sounds about right.”

“So you borrowed three percent more than you would have done, if you had paid the closing costs out-of-pocket.”

Silence — the threshold of rhetorical surrender.

“So who paid the closing costs?”

“…When you put it that way…”

“Who paid for everything?”

“I’ll be damned if you ain’t got me convinced…”

If only my Realtor and broker callers were this reasonable…

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