There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Greg Swann (page 31 of 209)

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Overnight News: “Systemic racism” in real estate? Demand specifics.

“My dying wish? Not to be dead. That won’t work, either.”

Is no news good news? It seems there is no real estate news, nor any other kind of news except Supreme Court news.

The Washington Examiner: Racist? Under Trump, black people and Hispanics join suburbs and home ownership up.

National Review: Systemic Racism? Make Them Prove It.

Townhall: How Woke CEOs Traded Our Future For BLM Approval.

City Journal: Show Us Your Systemic Racism, Princeton.

Those four stories together suggest a strategy: Until this weekend, since George Floyd was canonized, half of all real estate news has consisted of over-paid, over-fragranced corporate fatcats insisting that real estate is systemically racist – both the buying, selling and hypothecation of homes and the management of the brokerages and lenders.

Is that so? Demand specifics.

Demand that they back up their bullshit claims. We know they are lying on the transactions side: The fines are huge but they are almost never collected. Regardless, self-identified violators are required by law to document their violations – if any – to regulators. How many bellowing grand poohbahs have self-reported their purported fair-housing infractions?

If they are not lying about their own personnel management, why haven’t they resigned? If there is “systemic racism” in real estate management, the problem would be “the system” – the very over-paid, over-fragranced corporate fatcats making the specious claims.

Demand specifics – and assume the worst about anyone who will not provide them.

Daily Mail: UK, that is, where they know how to pack up a headline. Trump’s Supreme Court frontrunners: A mother of seven who adopted two children from Haiti and belongs to a Christian sect that inspired The Handmaid’s Tale – and a Cuban American whose father was stopped from becoming a lawyer by Castro.

Breitbart.com: Nolte: Passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg Permanently Resets 2020 Election.

Daily Wire: ‘Evil Is Real’: North Carolina Police Officer Pens Heartfelt Resignation Letter To Community Amid ‘Unprecedented’ Exodus From Force.

City Journal: Heiresses on the Barricades.

Threaten riot and ruin on Twitter, it’s all good. But do not compliment a black actor.

I waited for weeks to find out Twitter can’t read. Who knew?

Twitter banned me, pending appeal, for praising the actor Forest Whitaker.

I waited from August 4th to September 17th for them to correct this obvious error.

So they didn’t.

I am still banned, pending my next appeal, ideally with someone who can read.

I don’t know if my account will ever be restored, and I don’t know if I will keep it if it is. I abhor the way Twitter does business – and not just with me – so it seems stupid of me to share content with them.

We’ll see.

Meanwhile, I am mentioned on Twitter and I am promoted-to by Twitter – this news they deliver by email, a platform they can’t ban… yet – but I cannot read or write on Twitter.

We care a lot.

Overnight News: Mocking Redfin about The Dystemperor’s New Unriots is funny – until you think about what our studied negligence is doing to the black middle class.

“Red Americans got rooked once and completely. Black Americans get rooked with every spin of the ‘economic cycle.’ That’s how you know Black Lives Matter.”

As I noted yesterday, these are not just riots we are seeing across the country, they are carefully-mismanaged riots. Where the police department is allowed to function according to well-understood crowd-control theory, there are no riots. Cf., e.g., Detroit. As with acknowledging the riots themselves, taking note of this deliberate mismanagement is useful: It is the key proxy signal needed to determine any given neighborhood’s RiotScore™.

Redfin: Housing Market White Hot After Labor Day: Home Prices Up 13%, Pending Sales Up 27%. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Housing Wire: MBA: 11 million households fell behind on rent or mortgages in second quarter.

CNBC: Refinancing your mortgage will cost more thanks to an ‘adverse market’ fee.

Forbes: The Paradox Of The U.S. Black Home Ownership Rate.

John Wake is an old friend of mine and of BloodhoundBlog’s. He doesn’t address it here, but a further consequence of the rioting will be a decimation of black homeownership in the riot-wracked cities: The homes that were not destroyed are bleeding equity with every departing U-Haul van. The middle class is how we grow – as traders but also as neighbors. Strangers learn to love each other from trade – that’s how polyglot cities have always worked – but traders cultivate their neighbors by their good example. The social capital this Summer’s riots have destroyed far exceeds the physical damage.

So take just a moment, right here in the middle of the news, to reflect upon the hypocrisy of the so-called “leadership” of the so-called “real estate industry.” Redfin pimps an ugly, racist hiring preference for its Board of Directors and the grand poohbahs of the big brokerages actually promise wholesale violations of fair employment laws – all to make up for the “systemic racism” for which they are the actual and ongoing “system.” And yet, not one of them is standing up to defend the black middle class as it is being exsanguinated right before our eyes. We are “led” by scum – the sleaze Read more

Hey, big-talking big-datafied AI-enhanced machine-learning Realty.bots, give us what we really need: A neighborhood RiotScore.

If it’s not obvious, the big ugly question is my addition.

Redfin is back with new disinformation about the current national state of housing turmoil. It turns out it is not just the pandemic that has incited this frenzied reordering of housing priorities. No. Forest fires are responsible, too.

That is to say: Yet again: CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

I was snarking about yesterday’s disinfo on Facebook, thusly:

If #Redfin were of a mind to do something actually useful, this matters:

Some cities that might be considered riot-prone effected the time-honored policing strategy of taking the hotheads down fast and decisively, snuffing off the conflagration before it could start. Two I can think of are Detroit and Lancaster, PA.

My question: What is the relative difference in the riot-induced exodus in cities like that, compared to the ones which indulged their rioters?

That would be useful information – and a refreshing reconciliation with the truth. Simply classifying cities by their riot-friendliness would be a mitzvah.

And a friend popped off with this:

A riot score next to the walk score?

Bree-izz-illiant! A RiotScore is much more valuable than a WalkScore. If you’re running from trouble, how can you be sure you’re not racing from the frying pan straight into the fire?

Easy to compute. Redfin tried to pretend yesterday that that silly Red/Blue nonsense is meaningful. In fact, Blue cities (cities that are full of very red Marxists, so we lie and call them Blue) are surrounded by Blue suburbs, leading to a Blue-to-Blue exodus that is apparently confusing to people paid to be confused.

What matters more is the factor cited above: How do the local police respond to pre-riot activity? A riot is a critical mass of hotheads that is enflamed by one or more super-hotheads. Pinch off those match-heads right away and there will be no riot. Blue suburbs with reliable cops will have a very hot seller’s market. Those less vigilant will be eclipsed by Redder (less Marxist) exurbs further out.

Another obvious tell: Was the steely-eyed, up-through-the-ranks, by-the-book police chief recently replaced by a newcomer who is (check as many boxes as possible) black, hispanic, Read more

Overnight News: Riots? What riots?

“The hardest thing to know is when, precisely, to pretend not to know…”

You got news? I got news: Present company excepted, the real estate industry seems to be terrified to talk about the riots. You know, the ones roiling the never-more-local real estate markets? Evidence abounds and none dare call it by its right name. The simplest explanation to fit the facts – is the one nobody wants to talk about. Very sad.

Redfin: Hot Housing Market Spans the Political Spectrum, with Prices Up Double Digits in Blue, Red and Swing Counties. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. Red and blue is stupid. Single-family versus multi is better, with average age of the community’s housing stock perhaps being the best tell. Elderly, vertical, mortar or steel: Down. Post-war, horizontal, stick and stucco: Way up. Real estate analysis is easy. Lying about the further consequences of rioting takes work.

Jalopnik: Ahem. Moving Truck Prices In LA And San Francisco Are Skyrocketing Due To Demand.

Housing Wire: First-time homebuyer activity decreased in Q2, but there’s still plenty of buyers out there.

CNBC: Government mortgage bailout numbers improve slowly, but the real test is ahead.

Housing Wire: Builder confidence reaches 35-year high in September.

Joanne Jacobs: Paying for at-home education.

RedState.com: Emails Reveal Nashville City Government Hid COVID-19 Info from Public to Keep City In Lockdown.

City Journal: Problem: Overcrowding.

Watts Up With That?: Irrefutable NASA data: global fires down by 25 percent.

Reason: Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: Homicide Stats Show “Minneapolis Effect.”

Unchained Melody: “Your sister cried” – but why?

This is brutal and opaque and it kills me in every version of it I hear. This is a movie of the mind, and it is built to make you squirm.

What’s going on? I keep coming back because I can’t quite tell…

I’ll never know how you got into such a mess.
Why do the bridesmaids all have to wear the same dress?

Fred Eaglesmith is the best country songwriter since Townes shambled on. His work will survive because of songs like this one.

How do you beat the Realty.bots? The 3 key weapons of the Guerrilla Bloodhound: Brick and mortar, ink and paper – and flesh and blood.

“I wasn’t always a Realty.bot. I used to drive a driverless-Uber. Hardly ever hit anyone.”

I spent an hour on the phone with Brian Brady yesterday, always a tonic for my spirit. We are both of us guerrillas, both counter-marketers, always looking for ways to use the enemy’s strengths against him.

When we first met, Brian was using the internet to take business away from white shoe lenders and I was using it to scare up clients who wanted to avoid the sleaze of the supermarket-magazine-advertising Realtors.

That is to say, we were using the internet as guerrilla marketers against competitors who were not – or who were not any good at it, anyway.

How now, russet Bloodhounds?

The opposite, yes? Now our most-threatening competition is very adept at marketing by internet.

The Guerrilla Bloodhound’s response: The three ideas in the headline can be subsumed by one idea: In Real Life. And that notion is best understood in longtime BloodhoundBlog contributor Jeff Brown’s formulation: Belly-to-belly.

Be here now? You’ve got it, they don’t. Your best marketing advantage, by now, is that you are not on the internet, that you are present in real life and can address the issues paperwork exists to paper over.

Until they burn up all the excess wealth fools accord them, the Realty.bots will take as much business as they can from Driven and Cautious principals. The former value time over money, while the latter seem to think computers can’t cheat. Those folks may not be completely gone from your life, but they are all of online-shopping’s target market. Your value propositions and their values are a poor match, going forward.

The Incandescents will always be represented. If you’re good at selling luxury, historic, architectural or other jewelry-box homes, your world is secure. Bots can’t do what you do as a real estate analyst, but they can’t even touch what you do as showmanship.

And that leaves the Sociables, who are wise to wonder – continuously! – if they are being taken. They are yours and you are theirs because they do not trust a transaction this huge to what might as well Read more

Overnight News: Redfin: “Why isn’t this historic seller’s market holding back buyers?” CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

“Prices always shoot up for no reason!”

Housing Wire: Fed says expect low rates through 2023. Much better crystal ball than the one we have…

Forbes: Will The Latest Stimulus Proposal Stop A Potential Housing Crisis In 2021?

Redfin: Home Prices Rose 11% in August—Biggest Gain in Over 6 Years.

Housing Wire: More young adults live at home now than during the Great Depression.

Forbes: Topeka, Kansas Is Looking To Lure Remote Workers With A $10,000 Incentive.

Yahoo Finance: Analyst: Neither Trump or Biden care about soaring federal debt, deficit.

City Journal: Apocalyptic rhetoric about climate change is undermining the fight for pragmatic solutions to the West’s fire crisis.

Reason: Homeschooling Hits a Tipping Point.

FEE.org: George Floyd Riots Caused Record-Setting $2 Billion in Damage, New Report Says. Here’s Why the True Cost Is Even Higher.

The Federalist: Study: Up To 95 Percent Of 2020 U.S. Riots Are Linked To Black Lives Matter.

City Journal: Against Wokeness: Conservatives must understand the threat posed by critical race theory.

If you’re an ordinary salesmonster and you rook some sucker into a raw deal, you’re just a sleaze. But if you are fiduciary…

Me, this morning, at LinkedIn:

The words that are going to matter, when all this #iBuyer nonsense all blows up, are: “Agency with an interest.”

“Totally not a clown! In fact, someday soon I’ll be the guest of honor at thousands of lawsuits!”

Real estate brokers are fiduciary. They are obliged as agents to put the interests of their clients ahead of all others – including their own.

Translation: They don’t get to gull their clients to their own benefit, the way other marketers can.

iBuyer with an upgrade? iBuyer with an bridge loan? iBuyer with an upsell to a traditional listing instead?

In which of those scenarios is the iBuyer not blatantly self-dealing.

Want an easy test? Quoting me again, on a huge host of real estate agency issues: “If you have a preference, you have a problem.”

There’s the broker’s duty of supervision in there somewhere, too, but that just seems comical.

In due course, the Designated Brokers at the Realty.bots are going to look a lot like cops this Summer: Fallguys for ploddingly predatory poindexters.

None so deserving, fellas. Unlike the billionaires who made you their bitch, you know the law.

Overnight News: “Yo, incipient hermits! Who craves a mile-high skyscraper?”

“Going up?”

Big Think: Is it possible to build a mile-high skyscraper?

Housing Wire: Bought right out of a job? When one OpenDoor closes… Opendoor announces merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. in bid to go public.

Forbes: Opendoor’s Cofounder Talks Covid, Growth, And The Quest For Profits As The Company Goes Public.

Housing Wire: The words that are going to matter, when this nonsense all blows up, are: “Agency with an interest.” EasyKnock launches solution that lets homeowners lease back their home after selling.

CNBC: Homebuilder sentiment soars to record high, but lumber prices raise a red flag.

Housing Wire: Mortgage lending volume in 2020 likely to break records.

Connect Media: An monument to a dying industry in a dying location? Los Angeles Approves Tribune’s 56-Story DTLA Tower.

Redfin: Coastal Migrants Boost Las Vegas Home Prices, Up 8% in August, Amid High Local Unemployment Rate.

Housing Wire: Virtual notary adoption surges as businesses rush to close transactions remotely.

Forbes: Stripe Is Offering $20,000 Bonus To Employees Who Relocate To Less Expensive Cities, But It Comes With A Pay Reduction.

Housing Wire: Title insurance premiums surging during COVID-19 pandemic.

RedState.com: 5G – and 10G. Symbiotic Wireless and Wired Internet – And Their Government-Free Miracles.

The Daily Signal: Wildfires Will Get Worse Under Decades-Old Liberal Policies, Veteran Forester Says.

AIER: So You Want to Overthrow the State: Ten Questions for Aspiring Revolutionaries.

Entertainment Weekly: South Park tackling COVID-19 with its first hour-long episode. The trailer:

Overnight News: You can volunteer your way into quarantine, but you have to litigate your way out.

“Don’t fence me in!”

TribLive: Federal judge rules Gov. Wolf’s shutdown orders were unconstitutional.

Reason: Federal Court Rules Pennsylvania’s Lockdown Order Unconstitutional.

Upworthy: From England, but still: Security guards took care of employees’ office plants while they were on lockdown for months.

Redfin: The biggest trend in real estate stories? Detailing the ongoing impact of the rioting without mentioning rioting. Redfin knows who is getting screwed worst this Summer, but it won’t say why. Black Homebuyers Face Steeper Price Increases, Sharper Declines in Homes for Sale than White Homebuyers During the Pandemic.

HousingWire: If Biden wins, what happens to Fannie and Freddie?.

HousingWire: Mortgage modifications are on the rise, MBA says.

Forbes: Home Buyer Opendoor Is Going Public In $4.8 Billion Merger.

Car and Driver: Used Cars Are Having a Moment, Creating Opportunity for Sellers.

City Journal: San Francisco’s Deathly Compassion.

Overnight News: Entropy’s vengeance.

“Nihil nichts, no?”

Chicago Tribune: The alarming downward spiral of downtown Chicago. Is a comeback possible?

Daily Mail: More people are leaving California than ever before, driven out by worsening wildfires, politics and the skyrocketing cost of living.

RedState.com: A Most American City Becoming Increasingly Unlivable.

The Federalist: What Life Is Like In California’s Post-Apocalyptic Landscape.

City Journal: Let’s Hold On to the Throwaway Society.

Daily Caller: Wildfires Will Become Worse Thanks To Decades-Old Liberal Policies, Says Fire Expert Who Predicted Uptick In Blazes.

Good grief!

Who needs a palate cleanser, some good old fashioned smoke-blowing?

Forbes: 14 Home Upgrades That Will Boost Property Value. Voiceover: “Your mileage may vary.”

What’s the good news, for Monday? Everywhere things aren’t awful, they’re great. Get thee hence and make the most of it!

A note to our rental-home investors: Influx just lacks majesty, but it’s the upside of an exodus.

“Welcome to life off the lead, puppy.”

Me today to our buy-and-hold rental property investors:

It’s not well-reported, except in the form of secondary evidence like U-Haul rates and MLS listings and closings, but very-vertical cities are emptying themselves to the benefit of very-horizontal communities. Congratulate yourself again for investing in Phoenix, the world’s largest suburb.

At the moment, we are on fire, and that is unlikely to abate quickly. Demand far exceeds available supply, and the builders are better at writing contracts than erecting structures, for now. Rental demand is strong, too.

Prices have been strongly upward since the first wave of the exodus, surging with the second wave. The absolute strongest marketing characteristic for a home in Metro Phoenix right now is availability.

That’s good, but will it last? The big short-run fear would be whiplash from mortgage forebearances. Foreclosures or sales in lieu of foreclosure could be enough to cool our overheated demand. On the other hand, late-adopter first-time home-buyers are scooping up suburban parcels, too, as a part of the urban exodus.

We were nearing the top of this market in March, and the top is out there still. There is now nothing like a national real estate market, and it could be that 10%-20% of the nation’s housing stock is being abandoned. What seems certain is more rather than less volatility.

Every one of our investors is sitting on a huge amount of accrued equity. That creates a tax problem, if you sell, unless you can effect a 1031 exchange into another real estate investment. But: If you can, now or sometime soon might be the time to think about banking a riskier win into a safer refuge.

Meanwhile: Excelsior!

Overnight News: Like serendipity, Utopia is where you find it.

“There’s no place like No Place!”

CNN: America itself is a Utopian experiment. 19 families buy nearly 97 acres of land in Georgia to create a city safe for Black people.

Utopia is a Greek neologism that literally means “no place.” Dystopia, alas, abounds…

Jason Rantz: Amazon takes another major step to abandon Seattle.

ProPublica: They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?

Salena Zito: The forgotten counties will make their voices heard.

Don Surber: How Trump brought peace. Don Surber is an excellent daily resources for eyes-wide-open political news.

City Journal: A Conservative Opening on Urban Policy.

Unchained Melody: Stumblin’ onto “The Heart of Saturday Night.”

Cathleen and I went on a great big outing today. Big for the Coronavirus-infested world, anyway: We went to the Home Depot in Laveen – 30 treacherous miles from our home, along a fairly new freeway spur. In other words, duck soup in January but somehow a fairly big deal in September.

But what made it an outing was this stupid pandemic, so we made the most of it. Cathleen wore a dress, for goodness sakes. And it put me in mind of this song – as sappy as Tom Waits ever got, but iso granular, so particular, that I feel like we’re right there.