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Category: General (page 11 of 23)

December 28, 2007

Thank You Seth: “Why not be great?”

by

Mortgage Banker

Author website

In his last post of the year, Seth Godin visits the archives to pull out a piece of encouragement that has never rang more true in our industry until this year.  Read his whole post and get excited about 2008.

From Seth’s post on Why not be great?

Are these crazy times? You bet they are. But so were the days when we were doing duck-and-cover air-raid drills in school, or going through the scares of Three Mile Island and Love Canal. There will always be crazy times.

So stop thinking about how crazy the times are, and start thinking about what the crazy times demand. There has never been a worse time for business as usual. Business as usual is sure to fail, sure to disappoint, sure to numb our dreams. That’s why there has never been a better time for the new. Your competitors are too afraid to spend money on new productivity tools. Your bankers have no idea where they can safely invest. Your potential employees are desperately looking for something exciting, something they feel passionate about, something they can genuinely engage in and engage with.

You get to make a choice. You can remake that choice every day, in fact. It’s never too late to choose optimism, to choose action, to choose excellence. The best thing is that it only takes a moment — just one second — to decide.

Before you finish this paragraph, you have the power to change everything that’s to come. And you can do that by asking yourself (and your colleagues) the one question that every organization and every individual needs to ask today: Why not be great?

December 19, 2007

Shift Happens

by

Commercial Real Estate Broker

Author website

First off, I am feeling a little guilty for not being able to keep up with Greg’s writing production, or Geno’s proclivity for the English language (I am, but a young “padawan” in master Yoda’s presence). That being said, we all have bills to pay and I have been painfully buried in required due diligence that a new listing demands in the midst of the end of the year holiday rush. I know I’m considered the commercial specialist in this forum and may have not been pulling my weight around here as far as my production is concerned, but it has become apparent (at least to me) that the recent slowdown in housing shall inevitably be felt by those businesses (and properties associated with those businesses) most closely tied to the residential markets, especially in the hardest hit residential areas, as referenced in today’s “town hall meeting” with Treasury Secretary Paulson and the Governator in Sacramento:Town Hall Meeting

At a town hall-style event in Van Buskirk Community Center here, Paulson and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger spent more than an hour listening as local officials, loan counselors, community members and borrowers described the troubles they were having getting help from their lenders.

“Unfortunately, there (are) all too many stories like yours in the country,” Paulson told one borrower who said she could no longer refinance her home and would almost certainly lose it. “This is why we’re trying to find solutions.”

What most of us know (but secretly sweep under the rugs in of our minds) is that there is a “spill over” effect from residential to commercial that we hope doesn’t affect our own checking accounts. We’re use to hearing the obvious verification of current events:

That plan came just weeks after Schwarzenegger announced a similar agreement with four lenders he said represented 25 percent of California’s subprime loans. On Tuesday, the governor said three more lenders have joined the voluntary pact, covering about one-third of the state’s most troubled loans.

California is home to the nation’s largest numbers of foreclosures – more than 52,000 so far this year, according to DataQuick.

Paulson promised to investigate the claim of Read more

December 3, 2007

Speechless Without Writers

by

Mega-Producing Realtor

Author website

Speechless Without Writers enlisted top actors in a show of solidarity with the writers’ unions.

Appearing in spots for Speechless are: Sean Penn, Holly Hunter, Laura Linney, Alan Cumming, Jay Leno, Harvey Keitel, Kate Beckinsale, Tina Fey, Tim Robbins, Gary Marshall, David Schwimmer, Patricia Clarkson, James Franco, Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Martin Sheen, Josh Brolin, Susan Sarandon, Andre 3000, Chazz Palminteri, Jason Bateman, Christine Lahti, Patricia Arquette, Jenna Elfman, Olivia Wilde, Richard Benjamin, Paula Prentiss, Eva Longoria, Justine Bateman, Joshua Jackson, Rosanna Arquette, Diane Ladd, Rebecca Romjin, Minnie Driver, Nicollette Sheridan, Robert Patrick, Matthew Perry, Ed Asner and America Ferrera and the cast of Ugly Betty.

Click Here To See Episode 12.

November 23, 2007

Black Friday — Not Just Crazed Women Shoppers — Drinking the Kool-Aid — Perception and Confidence

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

What takes hold of women on Black Fridays? It’s like a perfect storm of planned group hysteria, guaranteed bargains galore, and shopping, shopping, shopping. Realizing how many women will take umbrage to this, I hereby stipulate only a smallish minority participates in this annual ritual of dueling plastic at dawn.

Pardon me — did I say dawn? My bad. How ’bout 4 AM?! And this after coma inducing feeding frenzies the afternoon before. I guess when the monkey needs feeding, energy isn’t a problem. 🙂

I see on the far horizon the possible sighting of Black Friday, The Real Estate Version. As my crystal ball is as cracked as yours, I’ve no idea whatsoever when it’ll begin. I’m sensing it though. It’s coming from that spot located in the back of my head, where all the small voices reside. This voice is barely audible. I’m not even sure if it’s the right voice, but I know one thing — it’s louder today than it was last month.

Like malls around the country, holding the fort against the hordes of shopping junkies, there is method to their madness. There’s a clearly perceived empirical benefit driving them. I have to believe that, cuz my own mom talked my own Much Better Half into participating. Yep, I awoke this morning just before 10 from my expertly induced Thanksgiving coma, to find Trophy Wife asleep on the couch in front of the TV. Nothing like doing over five hours of pre-dawn battle with Black Friday Kool-Aid drinkers I guess. 🙂

Let’s create an analogy here to the current real estate correction.

Assuming the annual January clearance sales will follow the holidays as night follows day (for Black Friday participants, kinda like the hair of the dog) let’s call post January, The Shopping Correction.

The RE Correction has lasted for over two years now, or roughly the equivalent of these things historically. For shoppers, going from January to Black Friday is an eternity, much as this correction must seem to most who’re feeling the pain of the RE version.

What if, as my little voice seems to be Read more

November 19, 2007

I Didn’t Like The Question

by

Mega-Producing Realtor

Author website

A few weeks ago I was part of a “Surviving In This Market” panel. I have been a part of this sort of thing many times, locally and nationally. A few minutes into questionthe program I found myself irritated at the question being asked. I usually don’t even read the questions provided beforehand as I prefer my responses to be completely unscripted. I think I may have surprised everybody (even myself a little) with my answer to the question asked. There were four other panelists and I was seated at the end of the table, closest to the moderator. The other four panelists had answered the question and I said, “I’m not going to answer the question because I think the question is stupid.” The moderator was a bit shocked. Perhaps you can guess that I seldom concern myself with such concepts as, “If I say this will I be invited back?”. I’m a bit proud of the fact that no one will ever be able to accuse me of being hard to read.

I believe that asking the right question can lead to a correct and useful answer. I also believe that asking the wrong question can be destructive. Just asking a question can cause damage? Absolutely. For example, the question, “What is wrong with me” or any of it’s thousands of variations is never a good question. Never. That doesn’t stop millions of people from walking around and asking this of themselves on a daily basis. They may have varied the question but it is nevertheless that question in one of it’s many guises. How can I improve this situation? How can I make this area better? are not the same sort of question and I hope you can discern the difference. The problem of “What’s wrong with me?” (or any variation) is that one tends to start a list of possible items. Then they can indicate these various items to themselves. They may even “get help” from others who can also indicate their various wrongness to them. Just based on how much this “improvement technique” is practiced in the Read more

November 13, 2007

Bossy Visionaries, Portland, and how to ram “Green” down the throat of an uncooperative market

by

Realtor, Associate Broker

Author website

The Bossy Visionary guide to power:

1. Sell a crisis.  It can be real, it can be almost real, it can be imaginary, but sell it apocalyptically.  Over-population/global famine has been an especially popular one, Paul Erlich having predicted it every five years since 1968 (but this time he’s serious!), following in the footsteps of Thomas Malthus, who first predicted the population would outstrip the food supply in 1798. [Now, of course, we have global warming, global cooling having proved a disappointment.]

2. Set yourself up as the one person/group/coalition/association that can solve the crisis, if only people will give you enough money and behave exactly as you instruct. 

3. Demand sacrifice, open a bank account, and wait for the marketplace to work.

4. When it doesn’t, legislate. 

The Bossy Visionary confidently knows what’s better for people than people.

Portland, Oregon is fertile breeding ground for Bossy Visionaries.

Portland doesn’t wear the progressive label; it wallows in it.  The County Commission and the City Council cattily compete with each other for the ‘most like San Francisco’ award, often to the exclusion of proposing anything actually, well, sane.  Thus the county a few years ago began unilaterally issuing gay marriage licenses, notwithstanding the fact that it wasn’t legal, wasn’t popular, and there’s nothing worse than giving someone something only to have it taken away, which the Supreme Court predictably did.  Thus the City Council is in the process of changing the name of a major thoroughfare in North Portland from ‘Interstate Ave.’ to ‘Caesar Chavez’ Ave., notwithstanding the fact the neighborhoods through which Interstate runs are an olio of Polish, Indian, African American, old, young, hip and not, but less than 8% Latino; and notwithstanding the fact that those neighborhoods, especially the businesses, are overwhelmingly opposed to the change.  [To the petulant mayor – he did the perfect ‘terrible twos’ impression and stomped out of a Council meeting when it looked like one of the key votes had changed – all that matters is the du jour grievance group, the fawning press that will be generated in the process, and one more notch in the totem erected to the politically gooey.]

So this didn’t Read more

November 10, 2007

Reasons Come First

by

Commercial Real Estate Broker

Author website

Imagine your 6 year old daughter playing with a Rubik’s Cube fresh out of the box on her birthday. She notices the six completed, colored sides in perfect visual harmony, whites across from yellows, reds from oranges, blues from greens. She rotates the cube, studies it, and then, slowly, begins to turn it, first the top counterclockwise, then the left side clockwise, then the right and bottom. She finds it fun to rotate and manipulate with her tiny hands, and it’s cool how she notices the changing patterns of colors on each side. You wonder if she’s recognizing how challenging the puzzle has become, because you notice as she begins to slow down. As she stops and looks at you, you realize that the fun “flashback” gift (given to her by someone in your family) will become your challenge for the next several hours or days, because she wants you to fix it.

FILO! (my new word around the kids, thanks Geno), now what? It’s my fault for not noticing what she was doing in the beginning. I can’t reverse the steps. And, I wasn’t one of those genius kids 20 years ago that could finish it blindfolded, with one arm behind my back, or in a taxi, as portrayed by Will Smith’s character in In the Pursuit of Happiness. You’re probably thinking, most 6 year olds can rationalize to some extent that you can’t fix it, so they get bored and move on. Then, you bury the cube in the toy box and hope they don’t find it again, at least when you’re not around. But, imagine this scenario and that your 6 year old daughter, as mine is, being afflicted with autism.

There is no rationalization, no cute distraction that moves her focus away from the problem at hand, right now. It’s now my problem. And, I can either, throw the damn thing away, endure the hours of endless tantrums and hope that she never sees another Rubik’s cube ever again in her life, or I can solve it. I recall the line from the original Die Hard movie, “I eat Read more

November 6, 2007

HR 3915: Anti-Consumer Bank Protection Act of 2007

by

Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

HR 3915, the Anti-Consumer mortgage bill has passed the House Financial Services Committee. This was expected. The committee is chaired by the bill’s sponsor, Barney Frank. This bill seeks to destroy the consumer protections, guaranteed by free markets, through: a legislated oligopoly, a reduction is loan choices, and a contraction of loan pricing options, all dressed up as consumer protection.

This isn’t cause for concern…yet. Today’s House FSA approval was akin to a Politburo approval of Khrushchev’s recommendation of the Communist slate of officials – with Khrushchev presiding.

The horse trading with this bill starts tomorrow. The bill will be read to the House “Committee of the Whole” where time will be allotted for debate and amendments will be considered. ( C-SPAN junkies, this is where time is allotted to the “Gentlewoman from California” wherein she rambles about baby seals for two minutes and offers her support for the mortgage bill. Then, the “Gentleman from Arizona” talks about the second amendment for two minutes and concludes with his dissent for the mortgage bill. )

Mandatory licensing of originators will most likely be recommended although nobody will really understand why it’s necessary. Republicans and Democrats alike favor licensing- the former for its ability to fleece money from people without the appearance of a tax and the latter because it asserts some level of governmental control.

The “fiduciary duty” rule will be attached, also. Nobody knows what that means but it sounds SO DAMNED GOOD to the little people back in the home state.

Yield Spread Premium will not go away but be limited to 1%. Prepayment penalties will be abolished. A lobbyist will buy a legislator lunch, explain in fourth grade math about how it helps the consumer, who, in turn, will explain the concept to the Committee of the Whole, in third grade math. That amendment will be made and everyone will champion the cause of the consumer and smoke another cigar.

The Committee of the Whole will read the bill for a third time, with my predicted amendments, and the House will overwhelmingly pass the bill for referral to the Senate.

The Distinguished Senate Leader will announce Read more

November 6, 2007

The Guy Down At The Car Wash Gets It…

by

Associate Broker

Author website

There’s a lesson in all this, I promise you

In a transitional part of Atlanta, there now stands a brand spankin’ new car wash. It used to be a Burger King, but that closed years ago… and after demolition, this lot sat vacant for several years.

Fast forward a few years, and a sign went up announcing the construction of the car wash. That sign was up for at least a year in advance of the car wash actually being built… so on this busy street – there was NO question that EVERYONE in the area knew a car wash was coming.

So a few weeks ago, they opened for business – all bright and shiny – and offered a grand opening special of $5.99 to wash a car. They had a guy holding the sign out at the street to make sure everyone knew they were open and that a car wash was only $5.99.

Then, the following week, the sign guy was still out on the street – waving the public in – but this time, his sign stated “$4.99” – instead of the previous week’s “$5.99”. Hmm… maybe they’re making it up on volume, who knows?

Another week goes by, and now the sign guy is holding a sign stating “$3.99”. Do you see a pattern here? Good. You’re paying attention. Because there is one.

The car wash still does not really have any customers that I can see. And I’d be willing to guess that the owners are starting to panic. After all, they probably spent a million dollars building this place.

So here’s my analysis and how it relates to real estate:

The car wash owners obviously realized that the market did not accept their initial price – no matter how much promotion they had done… and they responded with price adjustments.

Home sellers should take note of this market economics fundamental.

However, what the car wash owners have failed to realize is that two miles down the road is a well-established car wash that has been there for over ten years… and they have a $3.00 car wash. So – unless they add more value Read more

October 31, 2007

Real Estate Partnerships Under Attack in Congress

by

Commercial Real Estate Broker

Author website

For many of us that are involved in professional real estate designations (CCIM, CRB, SIOR, CRS, etc.), we’ve spent countless hours studying, networking and differentiating ourselves from the pack in order to better represent ourselves and our clients. Among the benefits is being alerted to the fact that someone in Washington is making a move that will impact our clients, their businesses and our livelihood without the aid of the WSJ, CNBC or the mainstream media’s focus on its impact to our profession. Below is an alert I received this evening that I wanted to pass along to the BHB:

CCIM INSTITUTE CALL TO ACTION: OPPOSE TAX INCREASE ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) is moving forward with legislation that would make major changes to the tax structure. The bill proposes a massive tax increase for real estate partnerships, raising the tax rate on “carried interest” from 15% to 35%. This legislation would significantly impact commercial real estate projects, most of which are organized in partnerships. Why this legislation is detrimental to real estate practitioners:

  • Drives investors to put their money elsewhere such as stocks with much more favorable tax treatment;
  • Diminishes the value and/or put many partnership out of business because the capital would not be there to facilitate them;
  • Creates a disincentive to investing in real estate since many would no longer earn a reasonable profit;
  • Stifles growth in a part of our economy which has become increasingly important over the last several years due to manufacturing, call centers, and other key industries moving offshore;
  • Punishes partners involved with prior arranged transactions by causing a totally different economic result than all partners agreed with in advance; and,
  • Fails to recognize that real estate investors are involved in their investments daily, while hedge fund managers are not involved daily in their investments.

Contact your U.S. Senators and Representative informing them of your concerns and urge them to oppose the carried interest provision. How to contact your legislators:

  1. Look up your Members of Congress and their contact information;
  2. Introduce yourself in a sentence or two. For instance: “I am Read more
October 28, 2007

HR 3915 Is Dangerous

by

Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

HR 3915, The Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007, was introduced by Barney Frank, (D-MA). Congressman Frank is also the Chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services. I outlined the key components of the bill with a link to the text here.

The danger behind this bill is that it doesn’t regulate the proper parties. When you read through the text, you’ll discover that there are two entities that are shouldering the brunt of the blame for the meltdown of the sub-prime mortgage market: originating firms and Wall Street securitizers. The bill stops short of levying any responsibility to the two most interested parties: borrowers and lenders (the individual investors). This bill exonerates them of the responsibility of due diligence.

Experience is the best instructor. An investor needs to lose 10% of his mortgage pool investment and a borrower needs to have his home foreclosed. That experience will instill a sense of personal responsibility in both parties. While loss of investment principal and foreclosure are devastating experiences, the old adage “time heals all wounds” truly is appropriate.

Jane Shaw, discussing Public Choice Theory:

Public choice takes the same principles that economists use to analyze people’s actions in the marketplace and applies them to people’s actions in collective decision making. Economists who study behavior in the private marketplace assume that people are motivated mainly by self-interest.

Ms. Shaw further exposes the dangers of regulation to correct market failure:

In the past many economists have argued that the way to rein in “market failures” such as monopolies is to introduce government action. But public choice economists point out that there also is such a thing as “government failure.” That is, there are reasons why government intervention does not achieve the desired effect.

This bill will provide a false sense of security to the consumer and encourage even more irresponsible behavior. Rather than let the instructional nature of failure naturally correct the market, the regulation would contract the industry so as to dissuade innovation and competition. The scoundrels will fleece the ignorant under the Read more

October 23, 2007

San Diego Fire Update — The Calvary Has Arrived — Air Attacks Have Started!! — Radio Link

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

They’re leaving from multiple launch points, and being seen all over. This is the best news we could hope for. They’re fighting through some very dangerous visual conditions.

For the people who’ve expressed an interest in more in depth info, in real time….

You can go online and listen live to KOGO AM 600 in San Diego.

Let me know if you encounter any problems connecting to the stream. I’ve tested it with no problem.
< ?php include("SDfiresupdates.php"); ?>

October 23, 2007

San Diego Fire Update — It’s Now Approaching Historical — 10% of Population Evacuated

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

The phone range at 3:44 AM this morning — Mom was calling to tell me she was packing, as she said, “Just in case”.

‘Just in case’ became reality when she answered the knock on her door around 5. It was a concerned neighbor, ensuring herself Mom knew things were getting maybe too close for comfort. She lives in Spring Valley, a community just east and a touch south of where I live, in La Mesa. Her call came as I was still in bed, listening to the radio. She saved me a call, cuz I was about to assert my rights as concerned son, politely insisting she pack a quick bag, and head over to my place.

While writing, from my living room window I can see to the south and east. Spring Valley’s Mt. Miguel is ablaze — I can clearly see the flames. They’ve been visible since I first looked, around 5:10 this morning.

Before continuing, some folks in other parts of the country, have said they’re not getting nearly enough info on San Diego. For those who would like to find out about friends and relatives here, one of our local TV stations has a pretty solid website, giving updates, maps, and overall coverage of the fires.

Also, the San Diego County Emergency Homepage might be of some help for those seeking info.

300,000 San Diegans have been evacuated — fully 10% of the county’s population.

One trivial note: The Charger’s home game appears almost surely to be moved to Glendale Arizona’s new stadium. The team left yesterday for AZ, hoping they’d be able to return for Sunday’s game. That’s a fantasy. They’ll be in AZ until after they’ve played the game there.

Ramona a town in the northeast part of the country, and Fallbrook, located off of the 15, not far from Temecula, have both been completely evacuated, according to news reports.

I called my brother-in-law just after 6. He lives fairly close to the path the fire has been taking in Spring Valley. He says he’s already got several boxes packed, and his pickup ready Read more

October 22, 2007

Pardon Me For Not Returning Your Call/Email — But San Diego’s On Fire

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

Geez, another fire, no, two of the nasty boogers. Santa Ana’s suck. What’s a Santa Ana you ask? It’s when desert winds from the northeast come swooping down into So Cal, bringing super low humidity, and winds blowing the wrong way. It also brings mid-80’s temperatures in late October.

When a few years of dry weather come one after the other, this is never good for San Diego. Add to the mix all kinds of dry dead wood for fuel, and you have the formula for what’s on the news the last few days.

As I write this it’s now too dark to see the more southern of the two fires. I have a southeasterly facing balcony with a gorgeous view in San Diego’s East County. As recently as an 45 minutes ago I could clearly see the Potrero fire’s smoke plume. It appears we’re winning that one. From about 4 PM until 6:30 or so, it was losing size, and depth of color. A great sign, based on my experience with these huge fires.

The ‘Witch’ fire is another story altogether. It’s not looking good. As of yesterday, it had already burned over 8,000 acres. Personally, my home isn’t in danger. My aunt and uncle, plus a cousin and his wife, living in La Costa (North San Diego County) have fled to Dana Point. Mom, who lives near me, has been my ‘stringer’, reporting on all the affected family members. My sister and her husband almost left their La Costa home, but when, at the last minute the order to leave was downgraded to voluntary they stayed. My brother-in-law is prone to severe asthma, so traveling to their downtown condo through all the muck was deemed far too risky.

Brian Brady, a good friend and almost neighbor, was the gracious host for five families from a community nearby his coastal home, which is close to Del Mar. They were from the Carmel Valley area, which was under mandatory orders to get outa Dodge.

I spoke to Brian an hour ago, finding him in the parking lot, J-3 to be specific, Read more

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