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Category: Group Therapy (page 58 of 81)

December 14, 2009

The Rates Aren’t The Only Thing That Matters….. (My thoughts on how to create healing in the housing market)

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

A couple of thoughts about this article from the New York Times:

  • It’s true.   Anecdotally, I’d have to say that depending on the day, anywhere from 30-50% of the people who I discuss refinancing with are either not able to do it because their income has fallen or because property values have dropped.  Now wait, you’re probably thinking, “I thought that the government was allowing people to refinance even if their mortgage was over 100% of the value of their property.    They are, but there are a couple of caveats to that:
  • The loan has to be with either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and a substantial portion of the market isn’t with either one of those.   If you want to find out whether your loan is with either one of them, check Fannie Mae Loans or check Freddie Mac Loans to find out.
  • If you have a second mortgage/home equity line of credit on your house and the combined balance of the two loans exceeds 105% of the value of your home (but is less than 125%) then you can still refinance, but the pricing adjustments that Fannie and Freddie charge are so extensive that unless your interest rate is over 6%, it’s probably not worth refinancing.
  • If you are like a LOT of people in today’s economy, your credit score isn’t quite as high as it used to be.   It might be because you’ve had struggles to make some payments on time, it might be because you’ve had some of the credit lines cut on some of your credit cards (thereby lowering your credit scores because you’ve got too much of your available credit tied up), it might be a variety of reasons.   But the end result is the same.   In order to get the best possible rate, you need to have either:
  • A 5% equity position in your house and no second mortgage or
  • A first mortgage of no more than 80% of the Read more
December 3, 2009

A Disaster for Democrats? Yeah, but what about the rest?

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

This is just ugly…..

Let me attempt to explain.   Goldman Sachs came out with their economic forecast.   Here’s a brief summary of it:

  • Mediocre growth until late 2011.
  • Unemployment peaking at 10 3/4 in the middle of 2011.
  • Extremely low inflation through 2011
  • Low interest rates through 2011 (at least the ones the Fed controls.)

So, what does this mean for the housing and mortgage markets?   The following list of predictions are made under the assumption that Goldman is right.    If they are, I think the housing market is going to see:

  • Continued growth in the number of foreclosed homes.
  • Continued downward pressure on house prices.
  • Continued delinquency problems at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.
  • Continued tightening of underwriting guidelines for mortgages.
  • Continued situations where the interest rate isn’t the problem, it’s property values and qualifying for the loan that’s the problem.

In addition to that, a couple of other things we could see:

  • Growing political unrest and dissatisfaction with the current state of the government and those who run it.
  • An opportunity for a massive restructuring of the political landscape, starting in 2010 and continuing to the 2012 election.
  • Growing resentment against the financial institutions on Wall St. and elsewhere that have had a big part in this mess.
  • Substantial regulatory changes that will either lower the regulatory and tax burden on consumers and businesses and create the type of growth that we need or will stifle all initiative and all opportunities for us to pull out of this any time soon.   We’ll either go Reagan or we’ll go Atlas Shrugged.   I vote for Reagan.

It’s going to be bumpy and it’s going to be wild, but it’s definitely going to be a ride to remember……

Tom Vanderwell

James Pethokoukis » Blog Archive » Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems | Blogs |

The key features of our 2011 outlook: (1) a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011; (2) a peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10¾%; (3) extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during Read more

December 1, 2009

HAFA, HAMP and other assorted worthless acronyms….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, I’ve got to admit, it’s been one of those days, but I can’t stand by and not say what I’m thinking about this new “short sale” program.    I’m already hearing a lot of Realtors and others saying, “This is great news!”    Well, hold on a minute…..

I’m going to go through some of the main points of the HAMP Update that was issued yesterday and that our President spoke about today.    You can find the entire thing at Hamp Update if you want to read it for yourself.  If you want to read the entire directive, you can find that at Directive.   The bold and italicized portions are quotes from the official documents.   The regular print is my thoughts…….

Supplemental Directive 09-09 provides guidance to servicers
There’s the first clue that something’s not going to go well.   It provides guidance. 

The definition of guidance according to Wikipedia is: Advice (opinion), an opinion or recommendation offered as a guide to action, conduct. 

See where the problem is?   It’s guidance, it’s not mandatory.   So, Uncle Sam can say, “Now, Mr. Banker, you really should do this……”    And the Banker can say, “(Well, we really shouldn’t print that.)”

provides servicers with the option to determine the extent to which short sales or deeds-in-lieu will be offered under this program.  (This is actually from the Directive).    

It provides options.   It allows the servicer to determine the extent to which they offer them under this program.

So, once again, what do we have?   We have Uncle Sam saying, “Now, Mr. Banker, it would be really nice if you did this……”   And the Banker can say, “____________________.”

The effective date of this Supplemental Directive is April 5, 2010.
Excuse me, but what the heck is the rush for?   I mean, they rolled out the HASP refi program to lenders the day that they made it public to consumers so we were getting calls on it before we even knew what was what.    Now they are giving the banks four months to decide whether they want to participate?    Why not next Monday?

With either the HAFA short sale or DIL, the servicer may not Read more

December 1, 2009

The Next Step….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

I’ve had a lot of people ask me lately, “Tom, what do you see is coming next?   What’s the next step in this mess?”

A couple of thoughts at this point:

  • Anyone short of Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, Meredith Whitney and maybe a few others who tell you that they KNOW how this is all going to end is lying.   (Did you notice how I didn’t include Treasury Secretary Geithner or anyone in Washington in that list?)
  • But there are some people who have the ability to peer a little farther out into the fog than most do.
  • Anyone who tells you this isn’t a confusing and potentially scary time is lying to you as well.   Never in our life times have we seen the kind of financial devastation and economic pain that is currently happening.   

The things that are going on are causing lots of people to question a lot of things that they weren’t questioning before.   Things like: 

  1. Will I be able to retire?  
  2. Can I ever trust a mortgage lender again?  
  3. Will real estate still be a good investment?  
  4. What’s happening in the stock market?  
  5. Is my financial advisor telling me the whole story?  
  6. What are mortgage rates going to do? 
  7. How does the actions of the Federal Reserve impact the financial markets? 
  8. What are the long and the short term ramifications of the deficits that the government is currently running?
  9. How does the value of the dollar impact real estate and mortgages?

Those are just a smattering of the types of questions that I’ve been hearing from people lately.   Okay, some of them aren’t quite in the format that I spelled them out but they have basically been asking that.  Frankly, I think the consumer’s desire to ask more questions is a good thing and a healthy thing in the long run.

So where am I going with this?   I’m getting to it…….

I’ve been fortunate to “hook up” with two of the experts in other areas of the financial spectrum (one of whom is our own Jeff Brown) and we’re setting up a new source for financial and real estate market insight and understanding.   As Read more

November 25, 2009

What am I thankful for? That we surfed the payables and survived!

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

This time last year, I crashed my car, totaling it. We used the insurance money to pay off our most urgent bills, so we weren’t able to replace it for quite a while. We had an old Mercury that I used until its lack of a working air conditioner made that impossible. After that, I rented cars when I needed to show. For three solid months I escorted buyers in an amazingly awful rented Ford Taurus. It was literally painful to drive — backache-inducing — but it was only $500 a month to lease.

The last two quarters of 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009 were all action, no traction, so we lived by surfing the payables — paying nothing before it absolutely had to be paid, and paying nothing at all on bills that didn’t have to be paid — including the mortgage.

And that’s a story that had a deferred happy ending. We got hit with a foreclosure notice much earlier than I was expecting. Business had picked up markedly by then, so we redeemed our pawn ticket earlier than we absolutely had to. Even so, it’s not an experience I would commend to anyone.

We got hit with a couple of judgments over very late debts, but that’s just business. We’re current on everything current, and we’re chopping down the old-growth debts one-by-one. It’s not pleasing to me to be a dead-beat, but, while we might be late, we’ve never skated on a debt and we never will.

Meanwhile, the world is young again. In the first five months of 2009, we didn’t make enough to pay the pet food bills. In the last seven months, we made enough to get current on the mortgage, to get current on our current accounts, to retire a bunch of past accounts, to buy me a new laptop and (as of today) a new iMac, and to put a decent used car under my buyer’s butts.

Better still, we’ve been rolling on a six-figure pipeline for months — no hopes, no maybes, no blue-sky wishful thinking — and it’s been rolling along nicely. This Read more

November 23, 2009

A World of Thanks…..Bloodhounds

by

Realtor, Renaissance Man

Author website

As we approach the end of this year, celebrating and reminiscing, dining and partying, worshiping and contemplating, I wanted to simply say thanks to all of you. You’re now all part of my world, and thus what you give spills over into that which I, too, am able to give.

A very special thanks to Greg and Cathleen, who yoke us together, all of us, in our individual pursuits, foibles and moments of grandeur.

Enjoy a bit of celebration about the world you Bloodhounds have helped shape. Remember our singular bond, notwithstanding our differences, to be bold and fearless in all our endeavors, seeking a taste of Greg’s Greekness if only for just moments at a time.

Oh, in case you didn’t notice, I managed to sneak into the session around the 50 second mark to add a bit of my own musicality to the group. Happy Thanksgiving week to all of you!!

November 22, 2009

‘Maybe’ kills our careers one letter at a time.

by

Realtor, Newlywed

Author website

I have been selling real estate for a while now. Not as long as many of you who are frequent contributors or readers here, though. When I got started in real estate, it was the outcome of my last falling out with Corporate America. What my last experience with working for someone else finally taught me is that I am unemployable. I am a great worker; I have a constant flow of ideas that would be of potential value to a business. I simply do not play well with others who are in positions of responsibility and who insist on being a choke point either for my career or for the flow of good ideas to benefit the company. I experience many of the same frustrations in real estate, but at least in real estate I am free to move myself into alignment with others of like mind. I find the choke points to be less restrictive and the potential for personal growth and development to be unlimited.

When I earned my real estate salespersons license (what the State of Washington calls me) I thought that the business would be simple. Just tell people that I am selling real estate and they would say “well, we need to have you help us.” What I found out very quickly was that EVERYBODY knew a Realtor. I was constantly being told “Oh, that’s great but <Insert name here> is selling real estate too.” That response stopped me dead in my tracks. I know that many of you will respond to me that this response should have never stopped me. You are right it; it no longer does, but it did then. I was terrified of rejection or so I thought. What I found out was that I was terrified of everything but the word “Maybe.” No meant that I was being rejected and my self esteem took another blow beneath the belt (I was also going through the long slow decline of a marriage and self esteem was in short supply). Yes meant that I had to deliver value, and frankly I did not Read more

November 19, 2009

Another 25%? Ouch, that’s going to leave a mark…..

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website


Okay, a couple of things that this chart assumes:

  • That from 1975 to 1999 was “normal” enough to indicate a statistical trend.   I think the case could be made that it was.
  • That we’re going to eventually get back to that trend line.    I think a case could be made that we will.
  • If both of those assumptions are indeed correct, then we’re heading into a scenario where we have quite an adjustment to go through in terms of a drop in peak housing values until we are back into range with that statistical trend.

What do you think?   Tell me why you think he’s wrong……

Tom Vanderwell

Values Have Dropped Only 25% of the Fall Needed to Reach Trend «

PRICE TRENDS / WAR OF THE WORLDS (Part 4): Property owners nationwide have lost only one dollar for every four dollars they can ultimately expect to lose on their home.

The good news according to the leading data series issued by the United States government is that prices have only fallen 6 percent. If you are a homeowner, you are wealthier than you knew. The bad news is you still have three dollars to lose for every one dollar which has already been lost.

The total projected fall from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) “All Transactions Index”, which begins in 1975, shows a peak-to-trend fall of 27%. Since prices are 6% lower by this measure, prices must still fall an additional 23% from today for prices to revert to trend.

The assumption built into these estimates is that prices in the years 1975 to 1999 advanced at a typical rate. A trend line was generated to the present based upon that 25-year period. The chart depicts the divergence of the trend established from 1975 to 1999 and the actual prices recorded from 2000 to 2009.

The FHFA prediction of a total fall of 27% is far less than the total fall of between 49% to 60% predicted by Case-Shiller. Based upon the four data sets reviewed in the last few weeks (see summary below), we can estimate a total fall of between 27% to 60% from the bubble top to Read more

November 12, 2009

When the cash-for-clunkers “logic” comes to the real estate market, it’s time for every homeowner with equity to cash in big

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

It’s cash-for-clunkers time in the real estate market.

Last week, in addition to extending the $8,000 first-time home-buyers tax credit for another six months, Congress added a new $6,500 tax-credit for move-up buyers.

The credit can be applied for homes selling for as much as $800,000, and the income limits exclude almost nobody.

You have to have lived in your home for more than five years out of the last eight, but that’s hardly an onerous restriction. And homeowners who have put down roots have equity.

Remember that capital gains on your primary residence are excluded from taxation if you have lived in your home for the past five years. But the way the government is spending money, that exclusion cannot last.

But, but, but… Your home isn’t worth what it was in December of 2005. That’s true, but it doesn’t change anything. The home that you can buy now was also selling for more four years ago.

Here’s the way things really shake out: If you have equity in your home, you can take that equity as a tax-free profit — for now. At the same time, you can snag the $6,500 tax credit. And you can do all of this at historic low interest rates.

If your house is worth $400,000 and you only paid $300,000 for it, you could reap a gain of $100,000 — which would save you thousands of dollars in taxes. If you wait for prices to go higher, you may wait a long time for a much smaller return. And the house you buy then will have appreciated, also.

I think we’re looking at a perfect storm for homeowners with equity: You can move now, take a tax-free gain, get a lot more house than you could have bought a few years ago, all financed with a low-interest mortgage. And then, next April, Uncle Sam will write you a big fat check for your trouble.

On second thought, this is less cash-for-clunkers than the taxpayer’s revenge…

 
Sell this idea! Feel free to share this idea with your clients and prospects — in your blog, by email, on the phone. This is big, and the Read more

November 9, 2009

Goldman Sachs and God’s Work

by

Real Estate Renaissance Man

Author website

I guess I haven’t reached that point in my life yet when I’m so jaded (or is it cynical) that nothing will surprise me.  I say this after reading an interesting little article in the London TimesOnline.  They had the chance to interview Lloyd Blankfein, the Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.  It seems he’s convinced – or at least he’s convinced he can convince us – that Goldman serves “a social purpose.”  As a matter of fact, Mr. Blankfein is so enamored with the self-importance of Goldman that he proudly proclaims he’s “Doing God’s Work.”  Wow…

Just to refresh our memory:

  • Goldman received $10 Billion in Tarp Money
  • Goldman received $12.9 Billion of government money through AIG
  • Goldman received $20.9 Billion in FDIC debt guarantees
  • Goldman, restructured as a “bank holding company” borrows at the Fed Window (at basically no cost)

Oh, and one more thing: Goldman will be paying $21.9 Billion in bonuses for 2009.  I don’t begrudge them bonuses, after all: they’ve had a helluva year.  Although some of that might be due to their oligarchical position within the federal government.  It would be nice – every once in a while – if Goldman would send a little thank you nod our way; maybe a quick wave or even a wink.  I guess I’m saying that when you’re screwing me this bad, a little dinner wouldn’t hurt.

John Lennon stirred up quite a spot of bother when he said: “We’re more popular than Jesus now.”  Have to admit though, that seems like such a trifle compared to the CEO of Goldman Sachs.  I mean, who cares if you’re more popular than Jesus?  Mr. Blankfein is angling to BE Jesus.

November 7, 2009

Looking for peace and prosperity? Nothing gets good things done like a do-nothing federal government

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

This from my Arizona Republic real estate column:

The elections this past Tuesday were not a referendum on President Barrack Obama or his plans and policies. How do we know that? Because everyone associated with the Obama administration loudly insists that this cannot be so. They ought to know, right?

Senators and Representatives from states and districts that supported John McCain in the last election might have second thoughts, though, and this is very far from being a bad thing.

Americans insist to each other that they want a government that gets things done — except when they happen to be suffering under a government that is getting things done. If this election was not a referendum on Obama, it was a loud, angry shout about what the government has been doing lately.

The last time voters repudiated an over-ambitious president — the last six years of the Clinton administration — the nation experienced a period of tremendous growth and prosperity. The American people recoiled in horror from socialized medicine, and the resulting government — liberal president, conservative congress — was amazingly beneficial for the American people.

How? By getting nothing done, that’s how.

For free markets to work at their best, entrepreneurs need to be able to plan for the future. If they can surmise that prices and credit terms will not swing wildly over the next few years, they can plan their investments with a sense of security.

And if not? Not.

The Obama administration’s herky-jerky dance of currency inflation, stimulus programs, emergency bailouts and tax credits not only cannot stabilize the economy, they do exactly the opposite: They convince entrepreneurs that now is not a safe time to make plans for the future.

This goes for the real estate market, too. Buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for new tax credits. Sellers live in dread of future interest rate hikes. The Cap and Trade bill promises to complicate life for every homeowner.

So how might these elections have helped us all? It’s simple. If Senators and Representatives are afraid to act, nothing will change. And when nothing changes in Washington, everything changes, usually for the better, for everyone Read more

November 5, 2009

Congress extends and expands the home-buyer’s tax credit

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

The Washington Post:

Under the housing program, people seeking to own a home for the first time in three years would receive an $8,000 tax credit if they sign a contract by April 30 and close on it by June 30. Current homeowners who are buying a new primary residence would be eligible for a $6,500 tax credit starting Dec. 1 if they owned their home for five consecutive years in the previous eight.

The timing is more lenient for military families who have been deployed overseas for 90 days or more in 2008 or 2009. They would have until April 30, 2011 to sign a contract.

But the measure limits the purchase price of the home to $800,000. It also imposes income caps so that people who make more than $125,000 annually and couples who make more than $225,000 would not be eligible for a refund. Anyone who collects the tax credit but sells their home within three years of buying it must return the refund.

The program is estimated to cost $10.8 billion.

The passage of the tax credit provision was a huge win for the real estate industry, which has been lobbying aggressively to extend and expand the program. They say the tax credit has helped boost sales and clear out a glut of lower-priced homes, especially foreclosures, and that ending it would be a blow to the housing market’s recovery.

But critics of the program, including some economists, say the program is far too expensive. They say that most people who used it would have bought homes anyway. They attribute the uptick in home sales in recent months more to low prices and record low interest rates.

Questions for the lenders: The tax credit for move-ups doesn’t commence until 12/01/09. What about first-timers? Can they be under contract now, or do they need to wait until after the end of the month.

More: Do I read this right? Can you “move up” after having rented for the last three years?

I hate this, of course. The real estate market can’t shake out if we won’t let it. But as listers of higher-end homes… Thus does the Read more

November 4, 2009

Voters discover a cure for Obamania?

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

I actually feel kind of bad for the should-have-known-better folks who voted for Obama. It was obvious to me last fall that he was a false-flag candidate, a stone liberal masquerading as a centrist. And I understand that, for true stone liberals, he’s actually been somewhat of a disappointment. But for people who can do math, their misplaced faith in Obama has to sting twice, once for having been so dreadfully wrong, and once again because snarky assholes like me just won’t let it slide.

But here’s the good news, from my point of view: Last night’s results may have the immediate impact of putting the brakes on all this tax-and-spend stupidity. The larger stupidities will endure, of course, but we just might have gotten ourselves shut of the home-buyer’s tax-credit last night. Surely this is an event worth celebrating.

This is Instanpundit.com’s Glenn Reynolds in today’s New York Post:

But [Obama] was right the first time about not being ready for the Oval Office. As president, he seems confused and a bit distant on the issues, leaving the details to congressional Democrats and an ever-growing number of “czars” while he golfs and launches attacks at Rush Limbaugh and Fox News.

With the economy tanking (unemployment is much worse after Obama’s deficit-swelling stimulus than Obama’s advisers predicted it would be with no stimulus at all), with the promised post-partisanship dissolving into witch-hunts against hostile media and the promised post-racial America devolving into the awkwardly staged “beer summit,” with the “necessary war” in Afghanistan the subject of endless dithering and the promised “smart diplomacy” materializing as a series of awkward missteps by Hillary Clinton, the froth has become a lot less frothy.

Republicans, who were prepared to give Obama the benefit of the doubt a year ago, now can’t stand him. Independents who voted for him are deserting in droves. And Democrats don’t seem that happy either.

The good news for Obama is that he doesn’t have to run for re-election for three more years, so he still has a chance to get his feet under him. But for Congress members facing elections in a year — including Read more

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