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Category: Lending (page 40 of 56)

The bottom of the Phoenix real estate market may be in sight — but, alas, the end is not near

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
The bottom of the Phoenix real estate market may be in sight — but, alas, the end is not near

When will the Phoenix real estate market finally hit bottom?

Believe it or not, I can answer that question with a high degree of precision: When the number of homes being added to the available inventory each month is generally lower than the number of homes sold each month.

But that’s a sleight of hand, isn’t it? I can’t say which month on the calendar will be the market’s nadir, I can only tell you what kind of market activity to watch for.

So here’s one way of looking at things. A newer suburban tract home in the West Valley is selling for $100 a square foot, on average. Practically speaking, this makes new home building unprofitable. Very few new homes will be built, so that source of new inventory is cut off for now.

Meanwhile, various loan workout programs are depleting the foreclosure pipeline. Where before a house might be offered as a short sale and then as a lender-owned home, now there will be an interregnum for the workout. What had been a gusher of lender-owed homes may slow down to a trickle, at least for the next few years.

Meanwhile, the low prices of currently available lender-owned homes are providing incentives for monied investors to come to Phoenix to snap up bargains. The nationwide economic slowdown might put the brakes on our normal in-migration patterns, but if people do move here, they’re going to be soaking up inventory as well.

So we should see some slowing in newly-listed homes, and we have upticks in demand. Are these enough to stop the general decline in home values in the Phoenix market? Ask me in three months.

But even if they are, we’re very far from being out of trouble. The loan workouts, particularly, may well keep home prices from plummeting. But because they will stretch out what in most cases will be an unavoidable foreclosure process, they will probably keep home prices low for years Read more

Quick Summary of the Day…..

Okay, here’s a quick summary of the day:

3 Banks got taken over by the FDIC.   The biggest one was Downey Federal, a huge “Option Arm” lender.

While Citibank didn’t go under or get bought out, but their stock was 50% lower tonight than it was Monday morning.

The stock market staged a late day rally but still ended up way down for the week.   Why did it go up this afternoon?   Because President Elect Obama announced that he was selecting Federal Reserve Governor Tim Geithner.   Why did they rally on the announcement?   Best I can say is because they liked the fact that an “insider” who has experience is going to be taking over.

Pretty much the entire financial sector of the stock market got hammered this week.

The disconnect between Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities has never been clearer than it is this week.

Based on some of the people I’m reading, the way that yields on Treasuries have moved this week are indicative of huge amounts of fear and tension in the markets.

The Big Three auto makers showed up in Washington begging for money, didn’t get any and left us all with a feeling that no matter whether they get it eventually or not, it’s going to be painful.

After a very calm week last week, the volatility returned to mortgage rates.

Have a good weekend!

Tom Vanderwell

Thus does Big Mother make gonophs of us all: How to keep your house by taking taxpayers for a ride

This is choice, from the San Francisco Chronicle:

To qualify, you must be at least 90 days delinquent and live in the home as your primary residence. You must owe at least 90 percent of the home’s value. It’s fine if you owe more than it’s worth.

Your mortgage must be owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or held by one of the participating loan companies.

If you meet these requirements and can document your income, your servicer will reduce your monthly mortgage payment – including property taxes, insurance and association dues – to 38 percent of your gross income.

The reduction can be accomplished in one or more ways:

— Reducing the interest rate, but not below 3 percent. (The new rate, if below market, goes back to a market rate after five years.)

— Extending the term of the loan up to 40 years.

— Reducing the principal on which monthly payments are calculated. Unpaid principal is added to the loan balance and due when the homeowner sells or refinances. The reduced interest payments never have to be repaid.

If you owe more than the home is worth, the plan will only reduce principal down to 100 percent of market value, according to an official for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which supervises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

If all three of these maneuvers can’t reduce your payments to 38 percent of income, you won’t get a fast-track modification but could still request a customized deal, says the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The streamlined process looks only at income, not assets. If you refinanced your home to buy a Mercedes or own another home, you won’t be expected to sell them to pay your mortgage.

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, predicts that many homeowners who have little or no equity will stop paying their mortgage and then reduce their income to get the biggest payment cut possible. They could stop working overtime or, if two spouses work, one could quit. After the modification, they could try to boost their income again.

“This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” Schiff says. “People are going to Read more

A workout loan can be a win-win solution to avoiding foreclosure

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
A workout loan can be a win-win solution to avoiding foreclosure

We talked last week about lender “workout” loans — a scheme lenders have come up to keep homes from falling into foreclosure. The premise is simple: If you can’t pay your mortgage, the lender will write you a new loan that anyone could pay.

I’m not kidding. Let’s say you bought a house in 2005 for $300,000. If you put nothing down, your payment might be $1,500 a month — not counting taxes and insurance. But the market value of the home is now $150,000 — a $750 mortgage payment.

As an investment, your home isn’t performing all that well. You bought at the top of the market, and you probably can’t even sell at a loss.

Worse news: Your hours at work have just been cut back.

You’re not in foreclosure. You’re making your payments. But you are an excellent candidate for what lenders call “jingle mail” — mailing in your keys and your deed. This would wreck your credit — for a while — but you’re looking at wrecked credit anyway.

But wait. Your lender’s workout department wants to speak to you before you do anything rash. If you qualify — which means if you have income — they might suggest something like rolling both of your mortgages into a new interest-only third mortgage at a very low interest rate.

Your existing monthly obligation of $1,500 will accrue month-by-month as new debt by negative amortization. In two or three or five years, you will resume paying on your old debt while you continue to pay down the new debt accrued on the third mortgage.

If this sounds silly, it’s because it is. The lenders are doing everything they can to make bad debt look good — temporarily. But a workout could be a win-win for you. If the market rebounds strongly, you can refinance all three notes. And, if not, you will have lived almost rent-free for the next few years before you lose the home in foreclosure.

P.T. Barnum said there’s a sucker born Read more

Paulson Translated

After listening to and reading the text from Paulson’s speech this morning, I had to sit down and translate it because there was so much he wasn’t saying and so much that he was saying that was just not “right.”   I hope that you’ll do two things:

  1. Take the time to read the entire thing.
  2. Make your opinions known – tell me if you think I’m all wet.  Talk to others about it, write your local paper, forward a copy of this to others, call your congressman.   Don’t just sit back and say, “I don’t like it.”

Here goes:

Paulson Translated – His original speech is in “normal” type, my comments are in bold.

Washington, DC — Good morning. I will provide an update on the state of the financial system, our economy, and our strategy for continued implementation of the financial rescue package. Keep in mind that this strategy is subject to change by tonight.

Current State of Global Financial System

The actions taken by Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC in October have clearly helped stabilize our financial system. Before we acted, we were at a tipping point. Credit markets were largely frozen, denying financial institutions, businesses and consumers access to vital funding and credit. He uses past tense verbs, but I’m not sure that isn’t still true. U.S. and European financial institutions were under extreme pressure, and investor confidence in our system was dangerously low.

We also acted quickly and in coordination with colleagues We told them who we were going to buy and we all slashed rates together around the world to stabilize the global financial system. Going into the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in early October, I made clear that we would use the financial rescue package granted by Congress to purchase equity directly from financial institutions – the fastest and most productive means of using our new authorities to stabilize our financial system. Even though that really isn’t what the program was for. We launched our capital purchase program the following week when we announced that nine of the largest U.S. financial institutions, holding approximately 55 percent of Read more

NAR Promotes Housing Stimulus Plan

Here is a fresh bone for Bloodhounds to chew on.  This 4-point stimulus plan was approved by the NAR Board of Directors this past Monday and is being pushed heavily in Washington DC. 

The National Association of Realtors® will offer a four-point legislative plan to reinvigorate the housing market, calling on Congress to act during a lame-duck session. NAR believes the plan will give a boost to the economy and help to calm jittery potential homebuyers.

The plan features such consumer-driven provisions as eliminating the repayment of the first-time homebuyer tax credit and expanding it to all homebuyers, making higher mortgage loan limits permanent, pushing banks to extend credit to Main Street, and prohibiting banks from entering into real estate.

“Housing has always lifted the economy out of downturns, and it is imperative to get the housing market moving forward as quickly as possible,” said NAR President Richard F. Gaylord. “It is vital to the economy that Congress take specific actions to boost the confidence of potential homebuyers in the housing market and make it easier for qualified buyers to get safe and affordable mortgage loans. We are asking Congress to act right away.”

Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said NAR, as the leading advocate for homeownership and private property rights, believes it is important for Congress to address the concerns and fears of America’s families, much in the way it has addressed Wall Street turbulence. “Housing is and has always been a good, long-term investment and a family’s primary step towards accumulating wealth,” Gaylord said.

NAR recommends Congress pass new housing stimulus legislation that includes the following priorities:

1. Remove the requirement in the current law that first-time homebuyers repay the $7,500 tax credit, and expand the tax credit to apply not only to first-time buyers but also to all buyers of a primary residence.

2. Revise the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 2008 stimulus loan limit increases to make them permanent. The Economic Stabilization Act, enacted in February, made loan limit increases temporary, and Read more

How the new president is going to prolong the housing bust

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
How the new president is going to prolong the housing bust

I’m writing this before the election, so I don’t know who will have won by the time you read this. But here’s something I do know: The forty-fourth president of the United States, whomever is chosen, will prolong the housing bust.

How do I know this? Because both candidates have promised to implement programs that will artificially buttress home prices above their market value. John McCain wants to refinance failing mortgages. Barack Obama wants a freeze on foreclosures. Congress and the fifty state legislatures have ideas of their own.

To make matters worse, lenders are putting a friendlier spin on the foreclosure process with elaborate workout schemes. If you qualify for a loan workout, instead of liquidating the home as a non-performing asset, some lenders will roll your existing loans into a new interest-only loan. You would make small payments for the next two or three years, and only then resume your full obligation.

What’s wrong with all these ideas? They’re simply delaying the inevitable. If you’re not making your payment now, you probably won’t make it after a refinance, after a foreclosure moratorium or after a three-year workout. Some people may find their salvation in these programs, but most of the affected homes are going to end up in the lender-owned inventory — later rather than sooner.

And that’s the problem. Our only way out of this mess is to clear the resale homes pipeline of foreclosure inventory. By delaying eventual foreclosures, we are preventing the real estate market from finding its bottom-dollar price. But we will see renewed appreciation only after the market has absorbed this glut of foreclosed homes.

The good news — for buyers: Homes are going to be selling very near their bottom-dollar price for the next few years. The bad news — for sellers: Homes are going to be selling very near their bottom-dollar price for the next few years.

The alternative is to let markets operate freely — a short, sharp pain followed by a robust recovery. But Read more

Why I think the Jobs report won’t be helpful for mortgage rates….

Okay, let’s face the fact that the jobs reports and the reports from Ford and General Motors that came out today were ugly.   Not just ugly, downright nasty.

In normal economic times, that sort of bad economic news would send people fleeing stocks and going into the bond market.   That would in turn send bonds and Treasuries up and the rates down.

But that didn’t happen.   Just looking at one indicator – the 10 year Treasuries, the yield went up by .09% today.   What’s up with that?

A couple of things are keeping mortgage rates higher than what the economic fundamentals would justify:

  1. The amount of money the government is spending on bailouts.  The Federal deficit is truly skyrocketing because of all of the bailouts, buyins, rescues, TARPS, etc. that are happening.  That money needs to be financed somewhere because we don’t have the money sitting in the “bank.   When the markets get flooded with additional loan demand, the “buyers” of the debt can demand a higher rate on their money.   That pushes rates up.
  2. The concern that foreigners are not going to be able to continue to buy our debt.   This is not an economic downturn that is only happening in the United States, it’s truly an international downturn.  If, due to concerns about the amount of US debt or due to economic downturns in other areas, foreigners either stop or slow down the amount of US debt that they buy, that will reduce demand and push rates higher.
  3. The Bank of England cut rates by 1.5% this week (in their version of the Fed Funds rate).   We can’t do that.   Why?   Because we’re already at 1.0%.   So the options that the Fed has going forward are more limited than we’d like to see them.

I truly believe that if this was a “normal” economic downturn, we’d see mortgage rates at least .75% lower than we have them.   I also believe that short of a major Federal “buyout” of mortgage backed securities (a topic for another post), we aren’t going to see rates substantially lower than we have them now.   I also believe that it’s going to Read more

Are you in Orlando on Friday? Make some time to learn how to make more money in 2009 at BloodhoundBlog Unchained

If you’re coming to the NAR Convention in Orlando this year, the vendors are quite literally dying to meet you. It’s been a bad year already for their useless crap, and attendance will be way down this year. They cannot wait to sink their fangs into you.

If you’re going to be in Orlando anyway, pry open your day on Friday for BloodhoundBlog Unchained. Yes, we’re going to charge you ninety-nine bucks for the program, but we’ll give you back twelve hours of ideas on how lenders and Realtors can make more money in 2009. Brian and I wrote and re-wrote and re-wrote the course line-up over the weekend, so we know that even if you can’t make it for the whole day, you’ll get great value for whatever time you can make available.

And to top it off, we’ll do it all without vendors and without their useless crap. Not everything we’re talking about will be cost-free to implement, but everything we’re always talking about is about how to reap maximum bang from minimum bucks. It’s not about being cheap — anti-marketing is worse than no marketing — it’s about being effective.

Even if you’re not going to the NAR Convention, you might give us your Friday. Gas is cheap, but the road ahead is fraught with peril. Make some time for us and we’ll show you everything we’re doing to acquire and convert new business — on the web and in the real world.

Click on the PayPal button shown below to get your $99 ticket for BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando on Friday, November 7th, 2008


















When: Friday, November 7th, 2008, 8 am to 8 pm

Where: Crowne Plaza Hotel and Conference Center, Orlando Airport, 5555 Hazeltine National Dr, Orlando, FL 32812

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Prequel to Speaking in Tongues: Displaying Author Images in WordPress

Several months ago, Greg described this process in Project Bloodhound speaking in tongues: To whom am I speaking?

At the time, I had no need to implement author images in a WordPress multi-author blog, (and I already knew the technique for TypePad), so I didn’t work with the process until just today.

As I set up what will become a company blog for our incoming agents, I realized that the average WordPress user might need a little more background information to put Greg’s code to use.

First of all, you need to find all your authors’ ID numbers.  Unfortunately current versions of WordPress do not show author ID numbers.  The easy solution for me was to download the Reveal IDs for WP Admin plugin.

Once the Reveal IDs plugin is activated, when you go to the Users page, you’ll see each author’s ID number displayed beside their username.  All ID numbers, that is, except your own.  The only way to see your own ID number is to create a new separate admin username and login, then login as that new identity, and find your old self on the list.

Next step:  Obtain images of each author.  Resize each image (I decided on 52 pixels in height, and 50 pixels in width as appropriate for the design I am using.)  Each image must be named simply by the author ID number.  For instance, my lovely image here on Bloodhound Blog is titled 34.jpg.

Upload all the newly resized and newly renamed images to your blog’s root directory.

Now you are ready to rock and roll.

Open your Main Index Template file (index.php)

I simplified Greg’s code for now to only display the author’s image and name

<img src=”http://www.bobtaylorproperties.com/blog/<?php the_author_ID(); ?>.jpg” height=”52″ width=”50″ align=”left” hspace=”10″>
Posted by <?php the_author() ?> <br>

And I placed it under the PHP code that inserts the post title.  Here’s the complete snippet:

<?php if (have_posts()) : while (have_posts()) : the_post(); ?>
<div class=”entry”>

<h1><a href=”<?php the_permalink() ?>” rel=”bookmark” title=”<?php the_title(); ?>”><?php the_title(); ?></a></h1>

<img src=”http://www.bobtaylorproperties.com/blog/<?php the_author_ID(); ?>.jpg” height=”52″ width=”50″ align=”left” Read more

Restoring a bargain-priced lender-owned home is easy — if you have cash — but a HUD 203k rehab loan makes it easy even if you don’t

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Restoring a bargain-priced lender-owned home is easy — if you have cash — but a HUD 203k rehab loan makes it easy even is you don’t

Last week we talked about troubled homes and how they can be restored to livability. That’s fine if you’re an investor with pockets full of cash. But what if you’re an ordinary home-buyer? How can you pick up a bargain-priced home and then refurbish it to its former homey comfort?

If you’re buying with an FHA loan, chances are the home is going to have to be at least partially restored before you can close on it. FHA loans require a more-rigorous appraisal, and any defects rendering the home uninhabitable will have to be corrected before you can proceed.

So if the range is missing from the kitchen, it will have to be replaced. If the water heater is broken, it will have to be repaired. If the pool is green, it will either have to be restored to swimmable condition or drained.

Who is responsible for these repairs? Normally, habitability issues would fall to the seller. But most foreclosure properties are sold “as-is” — take it or leave it. If you have cash, you can pay for the repairs prior to close of escrow and then move in as planned.

But what if you don’t have that kind of money?

One solution is to write your repair issues into your purchase contract. If the seller agrees to restore the pool and replace the range, you’ve dealt with the habitability problem in advance.

Another option is to take advantage of HUD’s 203k rehabilitation program. With a 203k loan the loan underwriter can attach what amounts to a construction loan onto the primary purchase loan. So you could buy a lender-owned home for $100,000 and finance an additional $10,000 to refurbish the kitchen after close of escrow. The appraiser will assess the value the home will have after the improvements have been made.

As you might expect, the fine print is extensive, but for an FHA 203k loan in Phoenix your purchase Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

I want to apologize for the delay in getting this out until Saturday.   Due to some technical difficulties and some new things I’m going to be implementing, Friday was spent working on computer issues.   Yeah, I know, a fun way to spend a Friday…..

So, here we are at the end of the week and what’s happened?  Well, a couple of things did manage to happen.  We’ll talk about the Fed, what they did, why it matters and why it doesn’t.   We’ll talk about earnings (or the lack of them), consumer spending (or the lack of it), inflation (or the lack of it), bailout backlash, and falling oil prices as well.   So, here goes:

The Fed, as  you know by now, lowered the Fed Funds rate by .5% to 1.0%.   A couple of statistics about that number:

1. As you  know, that isn’t directly linked to mortgage rates, so mortgage rates are not going to drop by .5% because of that move.

2. That is equal to the lowest rate the Fed has had rates this century (from June of 2003 to June of 2004).   If you’ve read anything about what’s happening in the financial world, you’ll know that the former Fed Chairman Greenspan has taken a lot of heat for keeping interest rates too low for too long.    Hmmm, and now we’re back to that same level.

3.  The rate they lowered to is 1.0%.   That means they have very little “ammo” left in their pouch if things deteriorate further.

4. Japan, in the 1990’s, had an interest rate of 0%.   That’s right, banks etc. could borrow money from the Central Bank of Japan (their Federal Reserve) for nothing.  How well did that work for Japan?   Short answer, not very well.

Why does what the Fed did matter?

1. Because in their statement, they essentially removed all mention of inflation being a risk.   For more details on what the Fed said, check out “The Fed Translated.”

2. Because it showed that they are very concerned about the economic conditions not only in our country but elsewhere.

3. Because it raises the question of whether we’re going to see a Read more

Credit Default Swaps Are Not The Bad Guys

David Shafer is a frequent commenter here on BHB and his insights often make me think.  We do not always agree, but I always listen to what he has to say.  He recently posted an interesting and (typically) well written article entitled Credit Default Swaps; The real financial WMD.  You can imagine from the title his take on these instruments.  Part of the article quotes from a recent 60 Minutes segment on credit default swaps  called The Bet That Blew Up Wall Street which is a hatchet job… I mean fair and balanced investigation for which this particular news show has gained such renown.

I commented on this article to the point that it was obvious I was writing a post, which brings us up to date.  I do not agree with the popular sentiment regarding CDS’s and I definitely do not agree with the simplistic view put out by sources such as 60 Minutes that imply derivatives are nothing more than gambling.  The problem is not with the tool but rather the hand that wields the tool (and no doubt, some of the hands at the helm of the credit default swaps market belonged to real tools, if you know what I mean).

Read this very carefully: Credit Default Swaps serve a very legitimate and important purpose.  Derivatives are a must in the market place and here’s why: they provide a hedge on risk.  The ability to hedge risk is an extremely important aspect of our markets.  Without it equities would be lower, rates would be higher and capital would move more slowly.  Derivatives are NOT some bastardized form of gambling.  The suggestion by 60 Minutes and others that they should be outlawed only reflects their rudimentary understanding of how markets work.

I’ll give you an example using a derivative called options, which were my area of specialty as a floor trader.

ABC company insures the debt of XYZ company, allowing XYZ company to borrow desperately needed funds for expansion, research and other job creating endeavors from a large pension fund that would not otherwise have bought XYZ’s bonds (lent them the money).  Read more

Arthur Laffer: “The Age of Prosperity Is Over”

The author of the Laffer Curve in the Wall Street Journal:

When markets are free, asset values are supposed to go up and down, and competition opens up opportunities for profits and losses. Profits and stock appreciation are not rights, but rewards for insight mixed with a willingness to take risk. People who buy homes and the banks who give them mortgages are no different, in principle, than investors in the stock market, commodity speculators or shop owners. Good decisions should be rewarded and bad decisions should be punished. The market does just that with its profits and losses.

No one likes to see people lose their homes when housing prices fall and they can’t afford to pay their mortgages; nor does any one of us enjoy watching banks go belly-up for making subprime loans without enough equity. But the taxpayers had nothing to do with either side of the mortgage transaction. If the house’s value had appreciated, believe you me the overleveraged homeowner and the overly aggressive bank would never have shared their gain with taxpayers. Housing price declines and their consequences are signals to the market to stop building so many houses, pure and simple.

But here’s the rub. Now enter the government and the prospects of a kinder and gentler economy. To alleviate the obvious hardships to both homeowners and banks, the government commits to buy mortgages and inject capital into banks, which on the face of it seems like a very nice thing to do. But unfortunately in this world there is no tooth fairy. And the government doesn’t create anything; it just redistributes. Whenever the government bails someone out of trouble, they always put someone into trouble, plus of course a toll for the troll. Every $100 billion in bailout requires at least $130 billion in taxes, where the $30 billion extra is the cost of getting government involved.

If you don’t believe me, just watch how Congress and Barney Frank run the banks. If you thought they did a bad job running the post office, Amtrak, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the military, just wait till you see what Read more

Why Bloggers Fail To Become Top Producers

I know your secret.  Honestly…I do.

You aren’t knocking the ball out of the park, regardless of your blogging effort.  You play around on Twitter, Facebook, Active Rain, and might even comment on Bloodhound Blog.  You’re probably REALLY smart and can’t believe that you’re having problems in business.  I know you are; I’ve read most of your blog posts, Tweets, and Facebook messages.  You fancy yourself ethical.  I believe that, too.

Why is a smart, ethical real estate agent like you failing then?

You got hoodwinked.  Tricked.  Sold a bill of goods.  That snake oil you bought?  Web 2.0- it was supposed to be the new way to do business; you just didn’t realize it was gonna take 3-5 years.  It’s taking longer than you imagined and you’re stuck.  Your spouse is riding your ass as she punches a clock while you play on Twitter.  Your kids wonder why you treat the occasional prospect who calls you to Ruth’s Chris while making them eat off the value menu at Mc Donald’s. You’re failing because you bought into the hype and you’re scared to admit that you blew it.

That’s okay- it’s not your fault.

You see, I got hoodwinked too.  I was all puffed up, speaking in San Francisco and New York like I was some kind of expert.  As I was hob-nobbing with the RE.net, I heard more than one of the “blogging elite” talk about their fear of personal foreclosure.  I heard the practitioners talk about losing their homes and the tech gurus talk about how rich they were getting…

…off the poor practitioners whom they appointed “experts”. THAT disgusted me.

I knew I had to make a VERY big change in my life.  I was following the “wrong crowd” and if I kept it up, I’d be face-down, lying in the gutter, with no customers at all.  I definitely didn’t want that…so I made some changes.  Those changes, combined with the things I learned from the folks who DO make money online, grew my business while my competitors were submitting employment applications at the mall.

Let me do my best Joe Biden…  It’s not your fault.

Greg Read more