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Category: Lending (page 41 of 56)

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Here we are on Friday again.  That means that it’s time to try to summarize what’s going on in the mortgage and finance world.   I’m going to talk about a couple of main things:  the economic fundamentals, some earnings reports and the “margin calls” that are going on in the equity markets.

The economic fundamentals that have come out in the last week or two have all been, shall we say, poor.   Not just in the United States, but England, Asia and other places, the economic reports all show pretty solid evidence that we are either in or heading into (depending on where you are) a recession and that it’s most likely not going to be a short recession but more likely the opposite – a long and painful one.   I’m not going to go into the details of the different reports because it would be too depressing.

Earnings Reports (or shall we say, loss reports?)   I’m going to do something a little different this time.   I’m going to give you the numbers and then later in the e-mail, I’ll tell you who they matched with.   Here’s the numbers:

-$81,000,000
-$700,000,000
-$23,900,000,000
+$4,370,000,000

(oh and these are all just for the most recent 90 days).

Here’s the choices for the companies who made them:

National City Bank
Microsoft
Fifth Third Bank
Wachovia
I’ll tell you a bit further down which one did which……

Now for a few thoughts about what’s going on in the equity markets and how that has an impact on the mortgage and real estate markets.   Here’s an overview of it:

1. The mortgage backed securities market is a highly leveraged market.

2. As approximately 5 to 7% (that’s right, it’s only 5 to 7% of all mortgages that are causing this problem) go bad, the value of the mortgage backed securities (also known as Collateralized Debt Obligations or CDO’s) fall dramatically.   Since they are highly leveraged, the investors have to come up with additional cash, typically lots of it.

3. That is, in an oversimplified nutshell, what is causing the significant sell offs in the stock market and the bond market at the Read more

Two weeks to BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando: Learn how low-cost prospecting techniques can help you dominate in 2009

I gather through the grapevine that the NAR Convention is shaping up to be a somber if not quite funereal event. Travel budgets are much constrained. That’s understandable. I can’t see a cost-benefit payoff of going to yet another vendorfest.

But BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando is another basket of oranges. We are about nothing but teachable tools, tips, tricks, tactics and techniques that you can use to start snagging new business right away. Even better, most of the things we talk about are highly-leveraged: Minimum expenditure, maximum results. If you’re a Realtor or lender running in survival mode, we’ll show you how to get more bang for fewer bucks — right now.

If you’re coming to Orlando anyway — or if you already live in the Southeastern United States — make time for us. We’ll show you how to make more money for yourself.

Click on the PayPal button shown below to get your $99 ticket for BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando on Friday, November 7th, 2008


















When: Friday, November 7th, 2008, 8 am to 8 pm

Where: Crowne Plaza Hotel and Conference Center, Orlando Airport, 5555 Hazeltine National Dr, Orlando, FL 32812

See you in two weeks!

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Peter Schiff: “Our leaders irrationally promoted home-buying, discouraged savings, and recklessly encouraged borrowing and lending, which together undermined our markets”

Peter Schiff in the Washington Post:

Amid the chaos of recent days, as the federal government has taken gargantuan steps to stabilize the financial markets, realigning the U.S. economic system in the process, comes a nearly universal consensus: This crisis resulted from government reluctance to regulate the unbridled greed of Wall Street. Many economists and market participants who were formerly averse to government interference agree that a more robust regulatory framework must be constructed to cage the destructive forces of capitalism.

For the political left, which has long championed the need for such limits, this crisis is the opportunity of a lifetime.

Absent from such conclusions is the central role the government played in creating the crisis. Yes, many Wall Street leaders were irresponsible, and they should pay. But they were playing the distorted hand dealt them by government policies. Our leaders irrationally promoted home-buying, discouraged savings, and recklessly encouraged borrowing and lending, which together undermined our markets.

Just as prices in a free market are set by supply and demand, financial and real estate markets are governed by the opposing tension between greed and fear. Everyone wants to make money, but everyone is also afraid of losing what he has. Although few would ascribe their desire for prosperity to greed, it is simply a rose by another name. Greed is the elemental motivation for the economic risk-taking and hard work that are essential to a vibrant economy.

But over the past generation, government has removed the necessary counterbalance of fear from the equation. Policies enacted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which were always government entities in disguise), and others created advantages for home-buying and selling and removed disincentives for lending and borrowing. The result was a credit and real estate bubble that could only grow — until it could grow no more.

Prominent among these wrongheaded advantages are the mortgage interest tax deduction and the exemption of real estate capital gains from taxable income. These policies create unnatural demand for home purchases and a (tax-free) incentive to speculate in real estate.

Similarly, the FHA, Fannie and Freddie were created Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio: Fundamentals Trumping “Headline” Risk

Sean “Rocky” Purcell and I discussed his big prediction of the stock market bounce and I repented for my recommendation to stay “unlocked” in hopes of lower mortgage rates.

Download and enjoy this light-hearted 17 minute show

We felt the near-term future for stock and bond markets would depend on the numbers not events.  We’re looking closely at Retail Sales (which were weak) and CPI, specifically Core CPI, this week.

Download and enjoy this light-hearted 17 minute show

Why the Bailouts Don’t Work and Why Wall Street Loves Them

The stock market came back with a vengeance yesterday.  On Friday’s episode of BloodhoundBlog Radio we noted that the market was vastly oversold from a fundamental perspective and suggested a rebound after the weekend.  This was prescient enough that the Mortgage Cicerone made note of it, which is high regard indeed.  So why am I not celebrating?  Because yesterday’s reaction was as irrational as the sell-off.  One thousand points?!  Sure the correction was in there, but so was the exuberance of a seemingly ceaseless font of federal gifts.  The markets like the latest ideas out of Washington and why shouldn’t they?  Wall Street has done a good job creating an aura of representation – most people now believe that was is good for Wall Street is good for America.  How else do you explain the frantic efforts our fearless leaders make each time the market drops?  The rally cry lately seems to be: “If we make the Dow go up, we must be on to something.”  This is nothing new.  For years now the markets have taken a preeminent position in economics beyond their reach or relevance.  One need look no further than earnings reports.  You might report record earnings for your company, yet your stock is pummeled because the reported earnings did not equal what the market had already priced in to the stock.  “You didn’t do as well as we thought you would do based on our self-serving judgment of what is best for you.” (Which is shareholder profits, of course.)

If you believe what you hear from the talking heads (and by virtue of the fact you are reading BHB, I doubt you do) the source problem for the economy is the toxic mortgage derivatives and their tentacle like reach.  Everyone bought these things, even when they didn’t know they were buying them.  Now (as the story goes) our problem is this: no one knows what this stuff is worth.  Everyone is marking down their portfolios, no one wants to risk lending money and the initial bailout (bailout 1.0) didn’t phase anyone; all because we don’t know the real Read more

Opt-Out of the Recession

I won’t be participating in the recession.  I’ve opted out.

The whole thing started when Chris Johnson slapped everyone for whining.  That was an important message.  Essentially, Chris has been saying, “I know it’s tough and it’s gonna be work but that’s why they call it WORK”.  If you’re a loan originator facing extinction, buy Chris’ Loan Officer Survival Guide, do the homework, and start implementing.  It costs about fifty bucks.

Folks who attended BloodhoundBlog Unchained Phoenix heard me talk about how to hunt for prospects using social media.  I discussed how to “find a herd” through social media and “building a fence around that herd” through the system outlined in the Millionaire Real Estate Agent.  If you’re in “my herd” you’ll recognize my e-mails, radio shows, blog posts, and postcards as the various slats of the fence I’m trying to build around you.

I recognized that transactions per agent were going to drop, about a year ago. I used to count on real estate agents for 3 loan referrals annually.  Today, I budget for one per year.  How then, can I close 100 loans annually with only one loan from each agent?  Increase the agent count, or size of the herd. It’s really that simple if you understand fourth grade math.

My refinance business has all but dried up.  When Hope For Homeowners was announced, I pounced.  While the particulars of the programs are still unclear, I figured that stressed out homeowners would be happy to have SOMEBODY who tried to help them.   These borrowers are a starving crowd.  While I don’t have steak to serve them, a few might get by on the rice I do have to offer them.  Commenters on Zillow’s Mortgages Undressed criticized me for outhustling them but I decided that serving needy homeowners was more important than being popular with a bunch of originators.

Jenna Jameson, actress and entrepreneur, defines courage as never letting anyone define you.  Don’t let the criticism of the competitors you’re crushing ruin your career.

Do you have the courage to change your business?   I suggested that the old saw “listers last” would be usurped by Read more

Obama ups the stakes in his contest with McCain over who can do more enduring damage to the crippled economy

Witness:

Democrat Barack Obama is calling for a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures and a two-year tax break for businesses that create jobs as part of a plan to heal the nation’s ailing economy.

The presidential candidate says banks that participate in the federal bailout should temporarily postpone foreclosures for families making good-faith efforts to pay their mortgage.

He also called for a $3,000 tax credit for each additional full-time job a business creates. The tax break would end after 2010.

Obama also is proposing letting people withdraw up to $10,000 from their retirement accounts without any penalty this year and next.

The Obama campaign emphasizes that these ideas can be done quickly, either through executive order or legislation.

Here’s a question that no presidential candidate, apparently, can answer: Where does investment capital come from?

A ninety-day moratorium to “temporarily postpone foreclosures for families making good-faith efforts to pay their mortgage” is stupid. A loan is either performing or it isn’t. The lender is never going to foreclose on a performing loan, although the threat or foreclosure may not be withdrawn for quite a while.

The corollary? If you want out of your mortgage, you have to stop making payments.

The tax credit is also pretty dumb. If $3,000 is the margin of profitability for a new hire, a few people might get hired.

But “letting people withdraw up to $10,000 from their retirement accounts without any penalty this year and next” will bleed the economy of lendable capital just when the economy is already bled white of lendable capital.

I can’t even think of all the ways this is perilously damaging. It encourages a run on retirement accounts, which will probably drive securities values lower over time. Individuals probably shouldn’t reduce their retirement investment stake just when it has suffered a terrible hit. Freeing up that money encourages still more spending on consumer goods — depreciating assets — where it is now invested in future growth.

But here is the worst feature of this insane proposal: Not only won’t that money be committed to future economic growth, but the people whose job it is to invest that money productively will have to think Read more

You Don’t Always Get What You Want, But If You Try Sometime, You Might Find, You Get What You Need

If you are a mortgage holder who is either struggling with crushing payments, bitter for having overpaid for your home during the bubble, or who has extravagantly refinanced when prices were rising, the government’s landmark $700 billion bailout package has an important message for you: stop making your mortgage payments.

So says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Captital and author of “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets” in his op/ed piece entitled, Just Stop Paying Your Mortgage.  You may or may not read it with tongue in cheek, but read it you should.

When a financial institution holds a mortgage, homeowners must live with the fear of foreclosure. Private institutions only have obligations to shareholders. In the case of a defaulting borrower, they will look to recover as much of their principal as possible. If foreclosure is their best option, they will take it in a heartbeat.

The government has no such obligations. Its only goal is to keep voters happy. After supposedly bailing out the fat cats on Wall Street, no politician wants to be accused of evicting struggling families. Once you understand this, all of your anxiety should melt away.

The law of unintended consequences is never so manifest, or insidious, as when politicians correct the free market with legislation.  (Except, perhaps, when they do so because they are …from the government and … here to help.)

If you have cash or can qualify for a mortgage, this could be the ideal time to grab a bargain-priced home in the Phoenix area

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
If you have cash or can qualify for a mortgage, this could be the ideal time to grab a bargain-priced home in the Phoenix area

The Phoenix area is hosting a wave of real estate investors like we haven’t seen since 2005. Unlike the novices who came here during the boom, these are experienced landlords. They’re here now because lender-owned homes are selling for bargain-basement prices.

They’re not alone. Savvy home-buyers are scooping up bargains, too, especially first-time homeowners. Interest rates are still attractive — even if the homes themselves are less appealing.

Interestingly, over the last couple of weeks, many of the lowest priced homes have seemed to evaporate. I’m guessing that October is going to be a banner month for closed transactions. Yes, most of these will be foreclosed homes, but buyers are performing the liquidator function, restoring the value of underperforming assets.

With so many homes selling, are we nearing a bottom in the Phoenix market? It’s plausible, if the number of sales meets or exceeds the number of newly-listed homes to be sold. But, even now, around 7,500 homes a month are entering the foreclosure process.

It could be a long time before that inventory is absorbed. And if it comes onto the market faster than buyers can snap it up, prices will continue to decline.

Visualize the real estate market as a pipeline. The home that gets a foreclosure notice today won’t hit the lender-owned market for three to six months. Are there enough investors and other buyers to snap up record numbers of homes, month-after-month, for the next two years — or longer?

The answer to that question is yes — if the price is right. If the demand for low-priced homes already exceeds the supply in the pipeline, prices will stabilize or even start to rise. If not, lenders will be forced to cut prices until buyers find them impossible to resist.

It’s an awful time if you have lost your home, and it’s not great if you are living in a home you cannot sell profitably. But if you Read more

Should Walmart Sell Real Estate?

It appears that Coldwell Banker may be following the Walmart approach to real estate pricing – recommending that sellers cut their home prices 10% across the board – not locally, but nationwide.  I can’t help but find the similarity to the McCain approach to cut government spending – simply freeze spending across the board.

Shouldn’t price cutting be done with a scalpel-ly machete?   Pardon the pun, but in many cases 10% doesn’t cut it.

I had a very difficult discussion today with the developer whom I represent regarding a new and very aggressive pricing strategy for their condominium project slated to deliver just about when the snow flies.

New lending guidelines regarding new construction could potentially crush them – even with units under contract, no potential buyer can close without at least 51% of the units being under contract – we’re not even close.  While Chicago may be a stable market per Fannie Mae guidelines, in light of the recent Wall Street meltdowns, I suspect the we may be in a declining market faster than you can say bailout.

If they don’t get aggressive quickly, we as taxpayers may just be owning 8 stunning, uniquely contemporary condos.  My recommendation was a bit more dramatic – depending upon the units, as much as a 15% price cut.  They didn’t take it well.  They “hoped” to get the prices we had established – they forgot the second half of the word  – “less”.  The good new is – we have time to thoughtfully approach the pricing strategy.

If we aren’t having the tough conversation with our sellers regarding pricing – okay, I’m going to go there – aren’t we like Congress, complicit in extending this housing market nightmare by not doing what we’re paid to do – provide knowledge, expertise and guidance?  While I can’t completely fault the strategy that Coldwell Banker wants to deploy, where did 10% come from exactly?

As far as I’m concerned regarding my own client’s situation, the comps matter significantly less than current lending guidelines do.  If mortgage money for conforming loans is still relatively plentiful to the well-qualified buyer, my client’s units need Read more

Will Mortgage Brokers Be the Hope For Homeowners?

The FHA Hope For Homeowners program was designed for existing homeowners, struggling with mortgage payments and an “upside-down” equity position in their primary residence.  It is a new program with lots of misinformation.  Some believe it can only be offered by existing loan servicers, some think only participating lender/servicers can offer the program, and few are certain if the program will be offered through mortgage brokers.

I discussed the key components of the FHA Hope For Homeowners loan program on Mortgages Unzipped.  They are are not limited to but include:

  • An appraisal will be performed and the maximum loan amount will be 90% of that appraised value.  All subordinate liens will be extinguished and the exiting lienholder will have to agree to a loss of principal.
  • The current housing payment must be more than 31% of the homeowner’s gross monthly income.
  • The homeowner must not have misrepresented his/her income on the original loan application.
  • The homeowner must get a new 30-year fixed rate loan and qualify based upon documented income.
  • The homeowner must agree to an declining equity sharing agreement (for the existing equity), with the FHA, for a specified period of time.
  • The homeowner will share in future appreciation with the FHA.
  • The program is completely voluntary; existing lienholders don’t have to participate.

This article isn’t about whether the Hope for Homeowners program is a “good” idea.  I believe that the future of mortgage refinancing lies in the immediate reality that lenders will accept short payoffs for refinance loans in addition to resale transactions.  Robert Kerr made a comment, about a year ago, about the morality of loan modifications and suggested that lenders should “mark-to-the market”and accept lower balances to be commensurate with declined valuations.  That comment inspired my semi-satirical recommendation of short payoffs, cross-collateralized against the net present value of government retirement entitlements. Robert made me think that the moral is the practical.

Will the investors play ball? One lender, acquired at the tail of the sub-prime boom, sold its entire loan portfolio for about 22 cents on the dollar this past summer.  This means that a $300,000, 100% financing home loan, made in 2005, was bought for $75,000.  Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review – on a Wednesday?

Yeah, I know it’s only Wednesday, but when I looked at my schedule for the rest of the week, I realized that I wasn’t going to be in one place long enough or have the time to sit down and write this update, so I decided that I better do it today.    In addition to that, we’ve had plenty of news in the last couple of days.   So, here are some thoughts about the markets, the housing market, perception and reality.

The markets – I think that it’s safe to say that none of us have seen this type of stock market declines in our lives.   I wanted to bring up a couple of points about the markets:

1. It’s very important, when looking at long term investing, to keep a rational view of things.   If you aren’t going to need the money for 25 years, don’t make decisions based on fear and panic that is currently swirling around in the markets.  Look at the long term and make decisions for the long term.

2. Stop listening to the main stream media.   There are many things where they don’t know what they are talking about and they love to paint a darker and more scary picture because it helps ratings.   I was listening to a local AM radio talk show yesterday while driving between appointments and was struck by a couple of things:

a. Morning talk show hosts shouldn’t be giving out advice about FDIC insurance.   The facts as they were stating them were just plain wrong.

b. Someone who is 44 years old (they said so) called in and said that on Monday (one of the lowest points in the market in the last 5 years) he sold everything in his 401K plan and moved it to cash.   If I had the time, I would have called in and told them a thing or two.   I was shocked at how much fear is taking over for rational long term planning.

3. I’m 43 (yeah I know, I’m over the hill) and I want to answer the question a lot of people are Read more

It’s a great time to be a Realtor or a lender — if you’re a good one. At BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando, you’ll learn how to dominate your market in the dark days ahead

What came out of last night’s Presidential debate? No matter who wins, we all lose. As painful as it might be to suffer a quick drop in housing values, followed by a recovery, we are in for a much more extended agony. Whether Obama wins in November or McCain, we’re in for an lengthy period of government “help” — mortgage work-outs or price supports or some other crafty means of disguising the true value of homes. This might be good for you if you are headed for foreclosure but haven’t yet crossed the bar, but it promises years of depressed housing prices for everyone else.

That’s bad for homeowners — but good for many landlords. And it’s bad for lenders who have perfected the art of re-financing the same clients again and again — but good for lenders who can generate the flow of new business necessary to live off of primary purchase loans. And a perpetually plateaued real estate market is very bad for by-owners sellers and lazy, stupid, cheap Realtors — but very good for Realtors who can actually get the job done.

An all of this is why you should be coming to BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Orlando. We’re about nothing but practical tactics for taking advantage of the internet to build your business — which is precisely what you need to be doing right now. Real estate has always been a hard way to make an easy living — and it’s about to get a lot harder. The Realtors and lenders who can sustain a pipeline of viable prospects will prosper in the coming years. The rest will get other jobs.

Here’s just a few of the topics we’ll be talking about:

  • Brian Brady will show you how to build a presence on the internet so that your prospective clients will not be able to go anywhere without finding you.
  • Mitch Ribak will talk to you about the techniques he and his team are using to close dozens of transactions a month.
  • Kelly Koehler will share with you her unique pay-per-click strategies, using an array of long-tail keywords to net clients at a very Read more

And Now, No Reason to Root At All

Last week, while watching the House contort itself in a self-serving round of navel-gazing over the bailout package, I pondered two connotations of their disconnect with the populace.  Taken together they are a question really, that looks at the motivation behind politicians’ decisions; the metaphysical understanding of a Representative if you will.  This question in particular asks why our elected officials vote for legislation they know their constituents are against.  At the time, many of our representatives had chosen not to support the bailout package; not because they were against it – quite the contrary, they wanted to vote for it – no, their problem was their constituents didn’t want it and the election was to close for a nice spin cycle.  So I wondered if they ignored the people who elected them because:

  • …constituents are too stupid to understand

or

  • …constituents are not the ones who pay their bills

Over the weekend I am sad to report the answer became clear.  The majority of America (at least the majority of America who contact their representatives) were against the bailout the first time around.  I had hoped it was due to the fact that middle America was smarter than the politicians and pundits surmised.  But then Wall Street had its little temper tantrum and middle America couldn’t wait for the bailout package to pass.  They told their representatives so with an onslaught of voice mails, emails and snail mails.

Walls Street’s melt down affected every-one’s retirement funds and investment funds and saving funds… if they elected to sell them that day.  Otherwise it made not a wit of difference to the average person on the street who does not expect to need those funds for years yet.  But people panicked anyway.

I learned from this episode a lesson most politicians must learn early in their career.  I learned that middle America did not read up on or have at least a passing understanding of what the bailout meant, nor did they look into and try to understand how Wall Street’s shoe stomping episode actually affected them.  Instead, middle America did what they always do: they Read more