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Category: Lending (page 45 of 56)

Quick update on the rumors….

If any of you have enjoyed the “give and take” between Sean and I about the Fannie Freddie death watch, it appears, based on reports in the Wall Street Journal and others that the bailout is happening this weekend.   What shape is it taking?   Lots of rumors, very few facts.

Here’s what I feel safe saying I know for now:

1. If you own common shares in Fannie or Freddie, you can probably use them for wallpaper.

2. If you own “debt” from Fannie or Freddie, you’ll be fine.

3. I’m still going to be writing mortgages next week.   The purpose of the bailout is to make sure the housing market stays moving and doesn’t precipitate a total financial collapse.

If I know more, I’ll write more later.

Tom Vanderwell

Mortgage Market Week in Review – Jobs….

Well, it’s Friday again, everyone is back in school, my 18 year old is off to college (only 35 minutes away but still) and the mortgage world keeps moving on.   So what’s this week look like?   Well, frankly there were a couple of other things going on, but the main thing that happened was jobs this week.   Which jobs?   The ones that were getting cut and the ones that John and Sarah are running for (yes I am going to talk about politics!)

First, the jobs that are getting cut.   The August employment numbers came out and they were frankly quite dismal.   We lost 84,000 jobs in August and both June and July’s numbers were revised downward.   In addition to that, the unemployment rate jumped upward to 6.1%, the highest level in, I believe, 5 years.    The numbers were not only bad, they were worse than the markets had expected and that has correspondingly renewed the use of the “R” word (not Republican, recession) and has reduced the fear of inflation.    The silver lining in that dark cloud is that mortgage rates have benefited this week.   The dark side is that there are a lot more people out of work.

So what does that mean?  Let’s focus on the “obvious” first:

1. It means that there are very few if any employers who are expanding right now.   I’ve heard discussions that in order to handle the growth in our society, we need to create an additional 100,000 plus jobs every month.   We aren’t even close to that number.   So that’s not a good sign for the overall economic picture.

2. It’s probably also a byproduct of the fact that the credit crunch is moving from just being a subprime mortgage problem to being a mortgage problem to being an overall credit problem.   Why is that so?   If you were a business owner who was looking to expand but can’t borrow the money needed to expand, it is going to be harder to hire more people.  It’s a vicious cycle, know what I mean?

3. If more people are afraid of losing their jobs, then Read more

Zillow.com: The “REconometrics” Firm of the Future?

Have you been watching Zillow.com lately, in the press? They’ve done a nice job at selling the mainstream media that they are the “real estate statistics” firm of choice. With the introduction of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, they are aggregating real-time live quotes and are positioned to trump other media sites for accurate mortgage rates reporting.

I”ve admitted that I’m a Zillow-phile. As a mortgage wonk, I love the data they gather and the reports they publish. I read Spencer Raskoff’s Active Rain Blog, weekly. I’m constantly comparing my terms offerings to the realistic quotes on ZMM (I’m a few hundred bucks more expensive but a helluva lot cheaper than the average quote-ask me why sometime). Their Zestimates are getting more accurate as they rewrite their algorithms and gather more market data. As a reporting service, Zillow could and should take the national lead.

Lately, I’m starting to see Zillow try to emerge as an advisory firm of sorts which is fascinating to me. I’m not speculating here, watch what’s happening:

I started reading Spencer’s blog with this post about trading commissions; I realized that we had a common background and that we probably speak the same language. This recommendation confirmed that thought.

This was the first time I saw Zillow offering its data as analysis, by Zillow economist Stan Humphries. Then, Spencer Raskoff suggested that Zillow would have prevented the rampant speculation, from 2004-6. Interviews on Bloomberg, radio shows, and CNBC, all “reporting” about the rapid decline, with really cool granular data. Most recently, I spotted Spencer on Bloomberg, reporting about the decline and offering his prognostication about the market. Today, Spencer took a well-deserved pot shot at the NAR economists.

Silly Active Rain chatter? I think not. It’s my opinion that Zillow.com is fashioning itself as the econometrics firm for real estate, I call it “REconometerics” just to give it a name. Where will they take that “new” product? They can:

  • Publish the data, like a newspaper, as interesting content for readers,so that Zillow can sell more ads.
  • They can Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review…..

Sorry this is a little late.   Had a closing out of town and it tied up a lot of my afternoon.

Happy Labor Day weekend! I hope that you take some time to enjoy a very relaxing weekend on the last long weekend of the summer.   Due to the fact that it’s the Holiday Weekend, I’m not going to make this as long as some of the others have been.    So here’s what’s been going on in the mortgage world:

1. Fannie and Freddie – while nothing has changed substantially, the immediate market fears over Fannie and Freddie have diminished somewhat.   I guess you could describe it as a situation where it’s still cloudy and rainy, but the worst of the storm has passed for now.

2. Credit Markets – there is continuing fear and questions regarding the status of the credit markets.   How big of a problem is there floating under the water yet?  I’ve heard rumblings that as Fannie and Freddie’s shares have fallen in value and as it’s rumored that when (not if) the Fed does bail out Fannie and Freddie, the shares will go to zero.   Many banks own substantial shares in those two companies and a reduction in their holdings to zero will require additional writedowns and additional belt tightening on their parts.   That doesn’t bode well for the health of the banks.   Speaking of banks, there’s some questions about a certain bank out in California (Washington Mutual) because they are currently offering CD rates that are approximately 25% higher than the going rates most banks are paying.   The thinking is that they are paying higher rates because they need cash and need it desperately.

3. Economic reports – the Gross Domestic Product report came in much stronger than expected.   Does that mean that the economy is going well?   Let’s put it this way, the aircraft industry had a very good quarter.   The vast majority of the increase came because of the aircraft industry.   Apparently some airlines are upgrading their fleets to improve fuel efficiency.    Consumer Confidence came in higher than expected as well.   The market consensus seemed Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Here we are on Friday again and it’s time to take another look at what’s going on in the mortgage markets. This week we’re going to talk about two economic reports and two big question marks.

First the economic reports from the week:
1. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators came out and it was down quite substantially. What is that index about? Basically it’s the conference board’s way of looking at what they think the economy is going to look like going forward. That’s why it’s called “Leading” rather than most reports that are essentially reporting what happened. This looks at what they think is going to happen based on trends and such. The fact that it’s way down doesn’t bode well for an economic recovery any time soon. It doesn’t specifically mean that we’ll have (or are in) a recession, but it does mean that things aren’t pretty.
2. The National Association of Home Builders reported that builder confidence came in for August at a record low. Gee, for any of you who read this who are a builder, know a builder, or work with one, it’s probably no surprise at all. We’re going through a fundamental shift in the building capacity that is needed in this country and the weeding out that is going to (and is) happening is not a fun thing by any means. Whether is was building, lending, or real estate sales, the bubble allowed way more people to get into the businesses than what the overall health and growth levels could handle. That’s an ongoing readjustment that needs to continue before we can hit bottom and go up from there.

Now for the two question marks. Actually, it’s one question about two companies. What’s the real story behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? I’ll make a couple of points to tell you what my take on them is:
1. As “quasi governmental” institutions, Fannie and Freddie have been able to borrow money at rates that are better than what other companies can borrow money at. That’s because of the implicit backing of the Read more

What went wrong in the real estate market? We told homeowners to treat their homes like securities investments — and they did…

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

As a matter of eating crow, I will attest that I publicly denied that housing prices could ever behave like securities prices, falling far below their fundamental value. The market has proved me wrong. We’re writing contracts on REO properties where the purchase price is well below the replacement cost. I read a listing for a potential rental property in a not-awful neighborhood that is selling for $49,500. We anticipate prices like that in premium rental neighborhoods when the Ameridream/Nehemiah calliope grinds to a halt. A house in Detroit was listed last week for one dollar. This bust behavior is just as irrational as the boon behavior — and it is a choice opportunity for people who are not irrational. Nevertheless, I was wrong. The real estate industry told buyers that homes were an investment just like securities — and damned if they didn’t believe us.

 
What went wrong in the real estate market? We told homeowners to treat their homes like securities investments — and they did…

If you were to turn back the clock on the Phoenix real estate market by four years — that would be just about right.

Judging by prices for bread-and-butter homes, it’s just as if the last four years didn’t happen. The average stucco and tile suburban dream home sold in July of 2008 for almost the same price you would have paid for it in July of 2004.

A lot has happened since then, of course. The 1,400 square foot single family home you could have had back then for $150,000 soared to $250,000 by December of 2005. That seemed like $100,000 in free money, and, regrettably, many people borrowed against that paper equity in their homes. Even if they did not, it has proved difficult to eradicate that entirely imaginary $100,000 from list prices.

The real estate market got hammered good and hard by two very bad ideas. The first is that homeownership is an unlimited good, that everyone should own a home regardless of their circumstances. Governments — and the National Association of Realtors Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Well, it’s Friday again, and as one of the few remaining Fridays of the summer, I hope you can get out and enjoy the weekend (and hopefully the weather where you are will allow you to!)

So what’s been happening in the mortgage market this week? This week it’s been all about inflation and housing statistics…..

Inflation – the Consumer Price Index grew by a much faster than expected .8% during July. Normally, that would send the markets into “freakout” mode but the markets didn’t really react all that much. Why? A couple of things: 1) A huge amount of the increase was due to the rising costs of energy and that has dropped quite substantially since the first of August, thereby easing the risk of inflation. 2) There has been quite a bit of “noise” lately on how the slowing of the economy both here and internationally will become, eventually, anti inflationary. How does that work? In a nutshell, if there aren’t many people shopping at Best Buy, they can’t very well raise prices, can they?

Housing Statistics – I’m not going to get into the itty bitty details of the housing statistics that have been released lately but I’m going to give you a bit of an overview of the reports and try to focus on the bigger picture rather than get stuck on details:
1. Foreclosures are rising – the number of homes that have been foreclosed on in July vs. last year is a LOT higher. In some areas of the country, it’s a staggering percentage higher, in others, just higher. But it’s up. What does that mean? It means that the troubles in the housing and credit markets are still going on and are potentially getting worse.
2. REO – Real estate owned by a bank or financial institutions. According to one report issued this week, banks and financial institutions now own over 750,000 homes throughout the United States. What does that mean? Essentially this, if we had to relocate the entire city of Chicago, we could find a bank owned home for every resident of Chicago and there Read more

Is An Educational Session A Sales Pitch? Of Course It Is.

I’m a salesman and have been since I hawked peanuts on the Ocean City boardwalk.  I’m addicted to “the pitch”.  I love writing them, watching them, and critiquing them.  Many people get upset when a “trainer” comes on to give an educational talk and finishes with an offer to buy books, tapes, coaching, et al.  Not me; I love it.  It gives me an opportunity to study someone else so I can better perfect my “pitch”.

The best pitch is the one that isn’t noticeable  It builds value and ends with a call to action that has the audience swamping you.  Rather than “asking for the order” it is so compelling that the prospective customers beg to buy what you’re selling- I saw one of those yesterday.

Lender (and Unchained graduate) Scott Schang invaded San Diego yesterday and presented to the East County Board of Realtors about a niche loan product.  He gave starving REALTORs  a juicy cheeseburger.  Scott invited me to both attend and critique his presentation yesterday.  He kicked butt but I spotted a few things he might improve.

Scott runs a shop called Porchlight Mortgage. Scott lends statewide and offers buyer brokerage in Orange County.  He has traditionally marketed directly to the consumer so this was his first shot at marketing to the REALTOR channel.  He did an excellent job explaining how his firm is committed to working purchase business rather than refinance loans and that value was recognized by the audience.  One agent questioned about his ability to wear his “lender” hat, with her clients, since he practices real estate brokerage.  What measures would he take to insure that her clients weren’t turned over to one of his “in-house” agents?

That was a fair question and I think Scott addressed it well.  I was thinking of Greg Swann’s “shoot the elephant in the room before he breaks all the furniture” approach to salesmanship.  Simply put, you HIGHLIGHT the negative objection up front…then shoot it down so it doesn’t become an issue. I suggested that Scott open his presentation by serving up that elephant.  I think he should proclaim that he is Read more

A Proposal to Improve Mortgage Lending….

Since there are a variety of licensing, regulation, education, criminal background check proposals bouncing around in an effort to clean up the mortgage world, I thought I’d throw out my own proposal on how to improve mortgage lending.

I’m proposing that as part of the training for becoming a mortgage lender, all originators be required to spend a minimum of 6 weeks working with a Realtor full time.  They would be required to essentially job shadow the Realtor in every aspect of the business.   What would they learn during their time?

  1. They would learn that Realtors don’t get weekly paychecks, they only get paid when they sell a house.
  2. They would learn that Realtors have many people putting pressure on them to “get the house closed.”   The seller wants to close so they don’t have to make another payment on it.  The buyer wants to close so that they don’t have to move twice.   The Realtor’s wife wants them to close so she has the money to buy groceries.   The Realtor’s daughter wants them to close so that Dad can buy her the stuff that she needs to “look good” going back to school.    The Realtor’s bank wants them to close so that he can make the payments that need to be made on the _______ (fill in the blank – car loan, lease, house payment, home equity payment).
  3. They would learn that there is a lot more to marketing a house that is for sale than a sign in the yard and a listing in the MLS.
  4. They would learn the intricacies of negotiating a purchase agreement and have a much better handle on the dynamics of the relationship between buyer and seller and the ways that a lender can avoid disturbing those relationships.
  5. They would realize that many Realtors care deeply that their buyers and sellers make wise decisions when they are buying or selling and aren’t just focusing on “how much can I make.”  Unfortunately, not all of them are focused that way.
  6. They would realize that there is a lot more that goes into determining what price to list a house at than the Read more

Is It Harder to Get a Mortgage?

If you’ve been reading this for a while, you’d know that it’s been getting harder to get a mortgage.   Well, today we have proof of it for all to see.   This chart is courtesy of the Federal Reserve (by way of the Big Picture). Some commentary after the chart:

Now for some thoughts:

1. See the line that represents prime mortgages?   Yep, it’s gone continuously up since this started a year ago.

2. See the line for “non traditional?”   Remember back late winter where things sort of “eased off” in terms of credit?  Yep, that’s when those loosened up again.   Well, that’s changed again.

3. Subprime – well, let’s just say that subprime is going the way it should – up so that only those with large downpayments can get them and they end up paying more for them.

So what should you take away from a chart like this?   A couple of suggestions:

1. If you are planning on buying a house or building a house, you better plan on being able to document your income and your assets completely.

2. If you have something “marginal” about your financial profile (income isn’t quite enough, documentation is challenging, credit is spotty) you can expect to have to come up with more of a downpayment and work through more details.   You also might want to consider moving your timeline up and trying to do it now rather than next spring – it’s looking like it’s going to be harder then…..

3. If you are looking to buy a house for the first time, you might have to rent a little longer and save up a little more of a downpayment than you would have.

All is not lost, the mortgage world is not dead, just a bit harder than it used to be.   Call me if you’d like to chat about it.

Tom Vanderwell (616) 292-7559

There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

Notes for insiders: The legislative thumbprint of the National Association of Realtors is churn. The NAR is not necessarily for or against any legislation. Instead, their lobbyists will look for ways to introduce short-term incentives to churn real estate — artificial inducements to buy or sell real estate now rather than on the consumer’s own timetable. In this bill, getting rid of seller down-payment assistance, introducing the new-buyer tax-credit and revising the capital gains exclusion rules all promote short-term churn. What about the long-term? The NAR knows it will be able to lobby for new real estate-churning legislation next year — at every level of government. This is just another example of the fundamentally anti-consumer character of the NAR.

Here’s another thought: Wouldn’t it be great if, instead of regurgitating Zillow’s gee whiz press releases, the real estate reporters of the mainstream media actually reported on what is really going on in real estate?

 
There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

Having trouble making your mortgage payments? You might be able to make a change in your loan, thanks to the mortgage relief bill President Bush recently signed into law. Under the bill, you can convert your high-interest adjustable-rate loan to a lower-interest fixed-rate note if you meet what might, in a declining market, seem to be Catch-22-like guidelines: Your payment must be more than 31% of your income, and your new loan cannot exceed 90% of your home’s value. Help is available — provided you don’t need it.

Starting October 1st, seller-paid down-payment assistance grants will be outlawed for FHA loans. This is bad news for lower-priced neighborhoods in Metropolitan Phoenix, where as many as nine out of ten homes are being sold with down-payment assistance. Expect to see a flurry of this activity in the next two months.

But the left hand gives where the right hand takes away: Buyers who have not owned a home for three years can take a $7,500 “refundable” tax-credit if they buy between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009. The credit Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

So, it’s Friday again and what has this week been like for the mortgage world? Well, it’s certainly not been boring, that’s for sure! We’re going to talk about six different things in today’s Mortgage Market Week in Review:

Freddie Mac – They started the week’s major news by announcing on Tuesday that they had lost a LOT more money than the market had expected in the last quarter, like $821,000,000 in 90 days. That works out to approximately $380,000 per hour in losses. The markets started worrying about the likely that the government will actually have to bailout Fannie and Freddie. The credit markets get nervous (or more nervous depending on your viewpoint).

The Fed – on Tuesday it would appear at first glance that what they did was a big fat nothing. I’ve done a fair amount of reading and studying of Bernanke and his views and I think I’d have another take on it. What the Fed said on Tuesday was (my paraphrase ) “The economy has some risks on both sides, the risk of recession and the risk of inflation, we’ve made the moves we’ve needed to make, we will continue to monitor things to make sure that the outcome we’re planning on happens, we think it might be a bumpy landing, but we’re confident we’ll be fine.” So rather than a “do nothing” statement, it was more of a “Things will come out okay, just be patient” statement. Does that make sense?

AIG – Not to be outdone by Freddie, AIG announced that during the second quarter, they lost $5.36 billion (that’s $5,360,000,000 or $2,481,000 per hour). Their losses were in collateralized debt obligations (aka CDO’s) that were mainly fancy packages of mortgage debt. Hmmm, that’s a pretty big number.

Unemployment Claims – Initial claims for the week came it at 455,000, the highest since 2002. That’s not a good number.

Pending House Sales – depending on whether you listen to the mainstream media or some of the analysts who look at the numbers behind the numbers, the report is either: 1) A sign that the housing market Read more

A-C-C-O-U-N-T-A-B-I-L-I-T-Y Find Out What It Means To Me

Honestly, I think Aretha got it right – stick to seven letters, melodically I think it just works better.

Anyway – in my family I’ve been labeled “you liberal” – the second youngest of eight kids.  Accountability, Responsibility, Discipline and Consequences were not just words, but codes of conduct – drilled into my skull – in The Hall Household, not at all surprising considering my dad is a ’53 West Point grad.  Punishment was a given – or should I say consequences were always delivered.  Spankings were called “reminder taps” – mind the pun – for at times, taps held near dual meaning if you catch my drift.

I typically save controversial or political discussions for funerals, weddings or family renuions because, being usually void of any emotional energy, I find that people are compelled to share their views in rational discourse – no such events planned in my near future so I am forced to share my views in the emptiness of cyberspace.

Is it me or have others noticed – in reading the headlines, blogs and other online sources, I am struck by the lack of consequences and accountability due to poor judgment – a lack of management shakedowns at some of the largest companies that I suggest are at the crux of the housing debacle.

Starting at the top at Bear Sterns, haven’t heard but a blip regarding heads rolling.  No news of foreclosures on Upper East Side Townhomes or penthouses – no sheriff warrants issued in The Hamptons – no learjet repos.  Government bailout – yep.  Significant management changes due to the consequences of poor judgment?  Nope – just talk of a takeover.

Seems that same is true over at Countrywide – more “seasoned” managers have been moved around and the CEO simply retired – B of A put their guy in charge of mortgages.  Plenty of seasoning but little grilling.  Wamu’s shareholders sought accountability and won a majority of votes to remove the chairman and CEO positions – but not a great deal more – in fact senior executives’ bonuses were shielded from the loses attributed to the mortgage-related business.  I Read more

Know Nothing, Do Nothing Fed Inspires Confidence and Encourages Faith

The Federal Reserve released it’s August statement yesterday and pundits are scrambling to interpret what was and (equally as important) wasn’t said.  Financial market participants have a 10-15 year history of trying to “outguess” the FOMC and focus more on the commentary than the actual decisions.  The result has been volatile market movements directly after a word was changed from “probable” to “eventual” in the Fed commentary.

I’ve learned to trust Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s judgement.  An astute student of Milton Friedman’s study of The Fed’s role in the Great Depression, Bernanke has taken considerable action to preserve a healthy banking system.  Free market enthusiasts would argue that his intervention is artificially  postponing the eventual asset deflation reflective of a dour economy.  I’d argue that his actions were necessary to promote confidence.

Confidence.

Sean Purcell and I discussed the press’ obsession with doom and gloom yesterday.  Last month a Qantas 747 lost a portion of its fuselage, had to quickly descend below the 10,000 “hard deck”, and make an emergency landing.  The 2.0 world gives us citizen journalism in the form of this passenger video.  Watch it and you’ll see a professional air crew inspiring confidence in faithful passengers.

The Australian News realized that “professional” and “rational” won’t sell fishwraps and elected to lead with “Terror As Huge Hole Cripples Qantas Plane“:

A QANTAS jet plunged 20,000 feet and was forced to make an emergency landing after a giant hole was ripped in the plane’s undercarriage, passengers say.

The Qantas Boeing 747, en route from London to Melbourne, via Hong Kong, landed safely today and a “gigantic” hole was discovered in the belly of the plane, near the wing.

Some of the 346 passengers on board told of debris flying through the depressurised cabin, and oxygen masks dropping from the ceiling. Some said the plane had plunged about 20,000 feet after a door “popped”.

“There was a terrific boom and bits of wood and debris just flew forward into first (class) and the oxygen masks dropped down,” Melbourne woman Dr June Kane told ABC Radio.

An option to “lead with the bleeder” rather than the heroism of the air crew.  Read more

The Fed Translated….

As you have probably heard by now, the Fed held rates the same today.   Here’s their statement (in italics) and my translation (in bold).  I hope this helps you understand what is going on.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2%.

Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. Partly reflecting the stimulus checks that we all received during the second quarter.   Did you spend, save, or pay off debts with yours? However, labor markets have softened further When the markets expected 70,000 jobs lost and we got some “good news” of only 51,000 jobs lost for July, you know the job market is softening. and financial markets remain under considerable stress Yep.  Enough said. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters The next few quarters – so we are going to be in this for a while. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth. Eventually we’ll work our way out of this.

Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. Inflation has calmed down, especially with the recent drop in oil and other commodities.   However, we don’t know what it’s going to look like going forward.

Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. It’s a toss up.   There are risks on both sides and we’re not really sure what is going to happen. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. We haven’t fallen asleep, we are aware of what Read more