There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Lending (page 47 of 56)

FedSpeak July 1, 2008

The following are excerpts of a speech made by David Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. My interpretations are in italics and bold.

Speech – July 1, 2008: “What’s ahead
I know you are most interested in the path from here—the path to recovery in the financial markets and, by my inclusion, the broader economy. My base case forecast for the economy involves a stronger-than-expected first half of 2008 with growth of 1 to 2 percent but not much pickup in the second half. That means that things are going to slow down from here to at least Christmas.

The drag of high energy costs, continuing financial market stress, and a still-declining housing sector may continue for a while with gradual improvement of growth in 2009. That means that we hope that by the end of 2009, we’ll see the economy start to show a little improvement. Not much, but a little.

There is much uncertainty surrounding this outlook. We really don’t know and we’re guessing almost as much as you are.

More adverse alternative scenarios are entirely possible. We’re probably being overly optimistic.

Self-reinforcing progressive deterioration Lower house prices will reduce the number of people who can refi out of bad loans which will bring increased defaults which will bring increased numbers of REO which will bring lower house prices (now repeat this again) could continue in the housing market, in turn affecting the financial markets the banks will take it in the shorts if that happens.. And neither the financial markets nor the overall domestic economy is protected from surprise events around the world.

Like many, I believe stabilization of the housing sector is required for recovery to proceed Really? Who would have thought? (Okay, sorry for the sarcasm). There are early and tentative signs that a bottom may be forming in some housing markets. Having said that, a sober approach to calling the future must allow for an additional period of house price decline, a slow housing sector recovery, and, as a result, a quite choppy progression to better markets and economy.” It’s going to be a Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review – the Fed Translated….

Hi all,

I want to thank Greg and Teri and Brian and….everyone for the honor of being invited to hang out with such an esteemed bunch.  I’m really excited about it and looking forward to working, talking and “raising the bar.”

I’ll do up a post next week telling a little more about “my story,” but for now I wanted to put up the post that I write every week for my blog.  I call it “Mortgage Market Week in Review” and it’s my overview of what’s been happening in the market and how it impacts the real estate world.  I hope you enjoy it.

For this week’s “Mortgage Market Week in Review,” I’m going to translate the Fed’s announcement that came out on Wednesday at 2:15 PM. It will, I believe, help give us a better view of what’s happening in the financial markets. The actual statement by the Fed will be in italics, my comments will be in bold.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

That, in and off itself, says that the Fed sees things as having changed since the last time they met. The last time they met, they felt that the economic weakness issue was more important than the risk of inflation. Now they are saying that it’s pretty much a tie as to which risk is bigger.

Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, Remember, they are looking at the big picture and are looking at things nationally. partly reflecting some firming in household spending Household spending has firmed some, but a closer look at the charts (which I won’t bore you with here) shows that consumer spending is either 1) Spent on essentials like food and gas or 2) drifting slowly downward. So, I don’t see the household spending holding up, especially as people have to cut back in spending in other areas because of the cost of food and gas for their cars.

However, labor markets have softened further As the labor markets soften (a nice way for Read more

Down Payment Gift Programs: Yea or Nay?

On June 9th, in a speech to the National Press Club, FHA Commissioner Brian D. Montgomery announced that his agency plans to create new regulations banning the use of down payment gift programs.  The most popular of these programs is The Nehemiah Program and you can go to their site for more details, but the gist is this: seller contributes 3.5% to this charitable organization, which then contributes 3% to the buyers purchase, serving as their FHA downpayment.  Appears to be a win-win: the seller gets their home sold, the buyer gets into a home with no money down and a charity gets .5% for helping.  The problem, according to Montgomery, is that loans using this type of problem are defaulting at two and three times the rate of their traditional down payment loans.

There is no question that this type of program gets more people into homes than would otherwise be possible.  But… what of the ethics?  Although legal and within the bounds of FHA’s current guidelines, is there any question that this type of program also eviscerates the very spirit of the guidelines?  FHA allows charitable gifts with the understanding that there is an implied vouching for the client.  Whether it be family, employers or a city program, the idea is that the donor has some knowledge, purpose or interest in seeing the buyer succeed.  But with the down payment gift programs, the donor is the seller and their only interest is in selling their home.  (In fact, at times the home’s value is inflated to cover the 3.5% donation creating a circular interest of the buyer for the buyer.)

A down payment gives the buyer some “skin in the game” and creates within lenders a sense that the buyer won’t walk away at the first sign of trouble (which sense was confirmed as we watched homeowner after homeowner walk away from their mortgage recently when there was no equity to protect – not an ethical consideration, purely business).  Without downpayments, rates would climb to cover the inherent risk.  Maybe that type of loan will come back once the risk can be assessed, Read more

Redefining Mortgage Disclosure

Jeff Corbett announced that he launched Ratespeed this week:

What is it? An anonymous, automated, transparent, mortgage program and interest rate pricing pre-qualification Search Engine widget, thingy.


Why is this important? For the first time anyone can transparently access wholesale direct mortgage interest rates and program quotes without having to talk to a licensed mortgage professional first. Yep, this is important to a lot of people.

I”ve been thinking about how to improve a mortgage shopping experience for consumers and am enthralled with both Jeff’s offering and the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. Both platforms are trying to better display information to consumers about loan terms. Zillow approaches it from a “live market” while Jeff Corbett focuses his efforts on yield spread premium.

I think the answer lies in a combination of a suggestion Todd Carpenter made, about eliminating all yield spread premium disclosure, and the Bank of America No Fee Plus Mortgage. I demonstrated how the No Fee Plus Mortgage was no real bargain today, after I visited my bank.

There is an answer. Isolate one variable; rate. Make loan originators guarantee all third-party fees, as well as their fees, when quoting mortgage terms. ABN-AMRO (now Citigroup) tried this some 3-4 years ago when they offered the “Guaranteed One Fee Mortgage“. When you do a side-by-side comparison with rates and loan programs matched up, you’ll get a true cost of credit if the originator is required to manage the closing costs and disclose them as one fee.

Banks or brokers will only disclose two things to the consumer: rate and one fee. It would be stupendously simple to understand.

Ultra Basic GTD (Getting Things Done) for Solo Warriors.

I’m a big fan of GTD.  More than any of the dozens of books I’ve read on goals and time management, Getting Things Done by David Allen enriched my life and changed my outcomes.   Most of the sentences in Getting Things Done can be followed by “no shit.” But, as my friend Julie Harris says, sometimes the “no shit” points are the most important.

All of us 2.0/3.0 agents here can do well to follow Jeff Brown’s stellar advice.  But execution is the key, Just…do it.

Kludges are very helpful when we’re trying to get something finished.  Worrying about if this is the ‘latest,’ productivity tool is usually a waste of time.   Having dead simple tools like dry erase boards and index executed zealously is WAY more useful than having a half ass implementation of the worlds most perfect solution.  I rock a Hipster PDA because there’s something unignorable about index cards.  You can turn a Palm/Iphone off, but if you have things to do, they will be reflected in the stack of cards you’re carrying. Is it as slick as an Iphone?  No, but since I made the damn thing it works.

Instead of having calendared reminders, I took a sheet of paper, and made a basic table: 

Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Blog Post

Call 20 Past Clients

Post to Facebook Groups

5 LinkedIn Questions answered.

Blog Post

contact 10 financial planners

contact 10 attorneys
send e-zine

…and so on.  Click for a full version. Both 1.0 and 2.0 activities are on the list.  If you’ve got a solid plan, it’s one of the easiest ways to force yourself to execute.  If I’m behind, I have a VISUAL reminder.  What’s hard is setting a realistic schedule and trusting it…that’s another post altogether.  (And yes, I have a monthly version and a quarterly version, too…this has kept me from needing an assistant because I have my tasks laid out in a linear fashion.)

My page It’s laminated #70 card stock so it has some weight. I use a  Vis a Vis wet erase marker to mark things Read more

Zillow Mortgage Must Verify Consumers To Become A Marketplace

Mike Mueller is leaving the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. A poor consumer performance review drove him to do just that.

From the consumer review on Zillow Mortgage:

Rating: 1 / 5
Comment: I asked for conforming quote, got sent jumbo quote with huge fees. I even specifically noted the request in the ‘notes’ section due to the newly raised conforming loan limits. If a lender cannot start off paying attention to the customer’s needs there’s no reason to go further.
Reviewer: srg418

Is Mike a crybaby? Hardly. Mike Mueller’s one of the real pros out here and that’s what has me worried about Zillow’s mortgage offering. In their effort to be consumer-centric, they are forgetting that the the “truth” lies in a lender’s opinion of the borrower. If the truth (in this case) is the loan terms, then why are we letting consumers wreck lender’s reputations for delivering it?

Mike delivered the unpalatable news that the “new” jumbo conforming rates were different from the conforming rates. I did that about two months ago to a customer and was equally admonished for my “deceitful tricks”…until the customer started applying for loans. Fortunately, the customer was fair-minded enough to tell me that he funded his conforming-jumbo loan with another lender…at a higher rate than I quoted him. Nobody won- he paid more and I lost money because of his inability to deal with the reality of mortgage guidelines.

The problem lies with the one-way mirror used on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. Like a perp in an interview room, mortgage professionals are criticized by consumers with predetermined bias. It is the bias of “needing to be correct” that stems from an inadequacy to deal with the truth. That sort of bias convicted Ruben Carter and I’m afraid that it hung Mike Mueller as well. Now, Mike won his case on appeal and fortunately it didn’t take 22 years for the truth to come out. From David G, in the comments thread:

I’ve deleted the review. Borrowers on Zillow can only rate lenders that they’ve worked with but I must Read more

The Meltdown Culprits are Finally Punished

I just finished writing a comment regarding the mortgage meltdown which led to the credit crisis which has caused a real estate recession (don’t you just love our fondness for allegorical alliteration!)  We were playing the blame game over on a post I wrote regarding The Gang of Three and how Wachovia’s current misfortunes may signal the bottom.

While many lenders and originators and agents and appraisers and so on can shoulder some of the blame, we should look to two primary sources for our stone throwing activities: the first is borrowers.  Borrowers, however, get a pass because it is politically, if not financially, incorrect to blame the customer.  That leaves us with number two: the rating agencies.  Yes, the rating agencies: Moodys, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.  Have you heard much in the press or by the politicians with regard to the rating agencies?   Neither have I, yet I argue that they are the proximate cause and primary culprit in this mess.  Lenders make money by lending money.  Investors make money by investing.  Borrowers can borrow because lenders can lend because investors will purchase on the secondary market.  The secondary market prices and purchases based on the rating given by the neutral, third party rating agency.

But, it turns out that the rating agencies were being shopped and whoever gave the best rating got the job.  So instead of giving investors accurate warnings, which in turn would have made the loans much more expensive, which in turn would have cut way down on the volume of high-risk loans – we instead have rating agencies trying to make money.  There’s that pesky “invisible hand” at work again.

Thankfully we can all relax.  As you can see by reading this article in Business Weekly, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has brought these criminals to justice and hit them with the severest of all punishments: he made them say “sorry.”  They have also agreed to set up some new guidelines (may I suggest: “Keep your hand out of the cookie jar” be first and foremost?)  Wow, nothing like a good strong talking to when you have caused or at least been heavily involved in Read more

And Wachovia Completes the Gang of Three

Wachovia board members have forced CEO Ken Thompson to retire  and Realtors should be popping champagne corks all over the nation.  Why?  Because Wachovia is the final reckoning of the Gang of Three and this may very well signal the bottom of the market.  Disclaimer #1: I usually write posts and comments backed by statistics.  Barry Cunningham will attest to that.  But this post is going to be more along the lines of a common sense case study; a thought experiment.

The Gang of Three
When the press first started reporting on the “sub-prime” crisis (a misnomer in itself, but we’ll save that for another day), a number of us were pointing out the real problems and what was to come.  There were three lenders to worry about and Countrywide, by virtue of its size more than any particular wrong doing, was used as the example.  In my weekly speeches to Realtors, I began to refer to them as The Gang of Three: Countrywide, WaMu and Wachovia.  The initial problems at Countrywide can be seen as far back as May of last year.  The set-asides at Countrywide were woefully inadequate, in my opinion, and that seems to have been borne out.  WaMu went down the exact same path and now, finally, we see Wachovia doubling the losses they originally forecast.  Why are these three lenders leading the Lemming parade off the financial cliff?  What do all three lenders have in common? (Hint: it’s not sub-prime loans.)  The common thread here is Negative Amortization Loans (cue ominous music).  Disclaimer #2: I am on record as being VERY against Neg-Ams (I have never written one for a single client).  Do they have a purpose?  Yes.  A few of my colleagues have used them effectively.  But I would venture to guess 75% of the neg-am loans produced were at least a by-product of greed if not out right theft on the part of the originator.

There is not space here to go into why these loans are, generally speaking, so abused and that is not the point of this post.  The point is that these are the big three originators of neg-ams (Countrywide, WaMu and Wachovia through their very questionable puchase of Golden West Financial) and all three Read more

Who’s a Mortgage Fiduciary?

Are you ready for the next big argument about fiduciary capacity? It’s coming in the form of national loan originator licensing and it promises to be a doozy.

The Federal Housing Finance and Regulatory Reform Act of 2008 is proposed legislation that seeks to license anyone who quotes rates or fees to borrowers (among other things). It’s a political stunt, veiled as consumer protection that is yet another revenue racket for the government. It’s requiring a 20 hour pre-licensing course, with testing and national fingerprint registry.

Anyway, there’s a lot of talk about “acting as a fiduciary” to the borrower. The rhetoric leads me to this conclusion; it just can’t be done (at least under the current environment). A fiduciary is someone who subordinates her interests to her client’s. I just can’t determine how a mortgage banker can TRULY act as a fiduciary; they don’t have all the product offerings available.

Wells Fargo doesn’t offer negative amortization loans . Contrary to what you hear in the media, there are times when a negative amortization loan is JUST what the doctor ordered. If someone has a large amount of debt, it might be in their best interest to defer interest (at 6.75% pre-tax) so that they can free up some cash flow to pay down the higher interest debt (at 13% post-tax). In this flat housing market, it may be the only chance someone has to improve their credit score by swapping 13% money for 6.75% money. Many bankers can’t offer that product. Would they refer that loan out to a specialist (like an attorney or doctor would) or “sell” the client on the “in-house” loan program?

Conversely, would a Wachovia originator, who just cashed a check at Bank of America and noticed that they aggressively priced their 15-year loan, refer that loan across the street or write it at .25% higher?

Mortgage brokers, then, should be perfectly positioned to act as “true” fiduciaries. If transparent brokerage compensation was pre-negotiated in an exclusive right-to-finance agreement (much like a Read more

Looking for the bottom? Real estate speculators are establishing the bottom-dollar price for lender-owned homes in Phoenix

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Looking for the bottom? Real estate speculators are establishing the bottom-dollar price for lender-owned homes in Phoenix

If you’re looking for the bottom of the real estate market in Phoenix, chances are it’s right up the block. It’s that house with the jungle of overgrown weeds in front.

It used to be for sale. Then it was a short sale. By now it’s lender-owned. A year ago it might have been listed for $250,000. Now the price has been slashed to $120,000 — maybe less.

That’s a sad story, particularly if you knew the owners. And now, as you watch the parade of investors checking it out, you might feel a certain anger toward them.

If so, your anger is misdirected. Between syrupy books and movies and high-strung high-school-teachers, we have been indoctrinated to despise speculators. But the truth is, speculators are the garbage collectors of capitalism. They come in and clean up messes they did not create, returning productive value to underperforming assets.

It you’re looking for a villain in these stories, look to the borrower, to the lender or just to the vicissitudes of life. But it is the speculators who are going to bring the real estate market back to a viable state.

How? By establishing the bottom-dollar price.

What is your home really worth right now? It’s worth as much as the lowest-price lender-owned comparable plus the cost of returning that home to turn-key condition plus a small convenience premium. In other words, if the lender-owned house sells for $120,000, and if it will take $10,000 to make it as nice as your home, then your home is worth $135,000 — $140,000 at most.

And if you’re not willing to sell you home for that price? Get it off the market right now. It will not sell for more, but the surplus of over-priced inventory is a false signal to buyers that the market has not found its bottom.

If you must sell into this market, you’ll sell at the market price. If you can afford to wait, you will almost certainly do better Read more

Mortgage Rates Higher at the End of May

Here’s how bad it gets when the mortgage-backed securities market deteriorates:

From May 21:

This is a chart for the last 30 days for mortgage-backed securities.  When MBS prices go up, mortgage rates come down.  In this case, I noticed a meteoric rise in MBS prices in the last week in April (off a low of 99.5).  I called for clients to lock on May 2, 2008, when the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.875%.  Today, it has improved to 5.625%.

Today, mortgage rates are over a half a point higher (in rate) :

This is panic selling that we’re seeing in the fixed-income securities market.  I knew it would happen but I was early.  The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 5.625%, nine days ago.  Yesterday, it went to 6.0%.  Today a 30 -year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.25%.  Expect rates to be above 6.0% for the next two weeks; we should see them creep down by the end of June to the sub-6 level.

Don’t fret- they’ll be back.

The Unchained Originator: Ken Stampe

I was disappointed with the low turnout of loan originators at UNCHAINED. There were two local originators, who attended our Mesquite library performance, and my buddy Ken Stampe. Ken and I met in 2006, on Active Rain. He was one of the first to sign up for Unchained. His only condition was that I buy him a beer in Phoenix.

Of course, a thousand bucks is a lot to pay for a cold Bud so he was hoping for a whole lot more. He got his money’s worth by showing up. That’s the name of the game in mortgage origination today; showing up. There were some 70 REALTORs at Unchained. Some are beholden to the local originators and I might have impressed a few but Ken Stampe was the Trojan Horse.

The Trojan Horse, as told in Virgil’s Aeneid, depicts the Greeks as guerrilla warriors, using the Trojans’ strength against them.

Ken Stampe is a modern day Greek. While originators were bellyaching at TAMB conferences , Ken dressed up in a Web 2.0 costume, and penetrated the walls of the RE.net. Now before some smart fella reminds us of the saying the Trojan Horse story inspired,

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts“,

let me tell why Ken’s strategy is flawless. He is ONE OF YOU, now. He’s playing on the social media marketing playground. By definition, he knows the rules of web transparency. He screws up? You blog about him. He plays the bait and switch game? Zillow’s consumers will crucify him. I know Ken so I know him to be impeccable in his business practice but good fences make good neighbors. The transparency of the Web 2.0 world makes us better originators which, in turn, makes you better REALTORs.

Here are four things Ken did by attending UNCHAINED:

1- He met me. Seriously, that’s important. Originators need support systems across the country. We call each other frequently to bounce ideas off one another. While we were phone friends, Ken cemented an already strong relationship.

2- He Read more

So How Does Your Lender View You As A Customer?

If Your Lender Is Countrywide – This Telling Email Might Give You An Idea

This email is being circulated on the web… I cannot verify its authenticity or content, so until it can be confirmed, take it with a grain of proverbial salt.

A Real Countrywide Email From the Office of Angelo Mozilo – Email Below Calls Homeowner Disgusting
By Moe Bedard on May 20th, 2008

It isn’t every day that you get to see behind the scenes of the housing and mortgage crisis. Mainstream media usually tells the same homeowner story of pain and suffering and then the “made up” stories from the lenders and servicers who are masters of deception and lip service.

Here is an email that was forwarded to me by a Countrywide Home Loans borrower named Don Bailey. Don joined my forum to get free foreclosure help and assisitance in obtaining a loan modification from Countrywide and that is just what he got. He followed or advice to a “t”, wrote his hardship letter (we provide free samples here and on the forum) and then proceeded to email and fax his information to the email list we provided him.

Email from Don to Countrywide after he received the disturbing email from the Office of Angelo Mozilo sent to him by accident:

Hello,

I took the advice on this forum, and e-mailed my hardship letter to the list of e-mail addresses posted in the threads. Two minutes later, I received a reply……a mistaken reply by Angelo Mozilo to the rest of the people on the list. Here it is. Nothing like this to kick a person while they are down. What hope do I have …

“removed@yahoo.com
CC: Steve_Bailey@Countrywide.Com
Subject: Re: bailey acct# xxxxxxxxxx
From: Angelo_Mozilo@countrywide.com Add Mobile Alert
Date: Mon, 19 May 2008 06:41:34 -0700

This has already been sent on to our senior manager who will determine the facts behind your request and he will take the appropriate actions.

Dan Bailey
05/19/2008 06:37 AM
To Angelo_Mozilo@countrywide.com
Cc
Subject Re: bailey acct# xxxxxxxxxx

Interesting to find that you think my letter is disgusting. I will send Read more

BloodhoundBlog Unchained: The Way of the Hunter…

We’re Unchained, but we’re still wired to the net — wirelessly. These posts are set up so that folks can make notes or comments in real time.

  • Two words: Ubiquity works
  • Setting traps on the sites that can expose you to consumers
  • Baiting the traps – providing relevant consumer content to match up with the community
  • Building a community – recruiting eyeballs that keep coming back
  • Getting commitment – how to convert engaged consumers to permission-based marketing participants
  • Channel marketing – building a referral network online

Brian Brady teaches you how to be as hard to miss as he is…

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HR 5830: Here Comes The Bailout Act of 2008

The best thing about being suspicious of politicians is that you learn how they think.  I actually think this is a GOOD idea.  Libertarians will hate it but I think this bill has merit.

Remember my Bailout Post, in March?

I have a little idea about how to save the American real estate market.

Let’s start with the premise that lenders are taking 20-30% hits on short sales. Then, let’s have the US Treasury loan 30% of the balance, of the aggregate debt, to homeowners whom request it, in order to pay down the first mortgage (or second mortgage). If I have $200,000, in aggregate liens against the property, the US Treasury will lend me $60,000, to pay down those aggregate liens, to $140,000. This reduces the lenders exposure.

What type of loan will the Treasury make to homeowners?

The term can be for the lesser of:

1- the remaining term of the first mortgage

2- 65 less the age of the primary borrower.

The interest rate can be the corresponding term treasury rate, plus .5% (for administrative costs). Maybe we can use some of that “yield spread” to coerce a few mortgage brokers to “originate” this government debt (okay, that was completely self-serving). For a 42 year old, with a 27 year term on his first mortgage, the term of this new government loan (in second position) would be 23 years (65-42=23). If a 23 year treasury bond yields 4.1%, than the note rate for the new loan will be 4.6%.

Well, maybe the Members of Congress are reading Bloodhound Blog; it wouldn’t be the first time that happened.  Bryant Tutas reports on HR 5830, on Active Rain:

From what I’ve read, and understand, this Bill will give distressed Homeowners an opportunity to refinance with FHA at 90% of value IF their current Lender will agree to a short payment.

One of the caveats is that the FHA will own a piece of the action. When the borrower sells they will either pay, from any profits, a 3% exit fee (a percentage of the original loan amount) to the FHA or a declining percentage of any net proceeds, attributed to appreciation, Read more