There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Lending (page 55 of 56)

The 800 pound gorilla in the corner – the meltdown of the Wall Street mortgage market

As we go about our daily lives in the mortgage and real estate world; dutifully performing our job functions and taking the high road of customer enlightenment via blogs such as Bloodhound; we are faced with a very large gorilla looming in the corner of our workplace. That gorilla is the amazing meltdown of the Wall Street mortgage market and its subsequent impact on the future of housing. If you’ve been following the financial news lately you’ve noticed that the indexes that track the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) – Wall Street’s favorite securitization method for subprime and other mortgage debt – have taken a severe beating.

The reasons are many and the events of the recent weeks impact everyone tied to the mortgage industry and economy at large. Some of the major recent events that have changed the rules of the game we are playing:

  • Wall Street rating agencies like Moody’s, Standard & Poors and Fitch have changed the way subprime debt is valued; essentially emasculating large portfolios of CDOs made up of subprime mortgages
  • The complete under-performance of these CDOs as mortgage delinquencies continue to rise resulting in a liquidity and credit crunch at the investor securitization and investment bank levels
  • The elimination of mortgage programs as securities become illiquid and unsellable to Wall Street
  • The escalation of foreclosure properties and borrowers attempting short sales that are degrading mortgage pools even further

Let’s take a look at today’s events just as an example. Option One announced that they are no longer offering the 2-year fixed adjustable rate mortgage. Commonly referred to as a 2/28 mortgage this product was wildly popular during the recent credit boom. It offers a low “teaser” rate for the first two years before adjusting to a much higher “fully-indexed” payment. These loans, issued in trillions of dollars during 2000-2006 are resetting in record numbers to ever-higher interest rates. Many point to the 2/28 reset as one of the primary causes of mortgage default, foreclosure and – ultimately for Wall Street – poor security performance.

Why did Option One eliminate the 2/28? Simple. Profitability. Read more

Missed Fortune and the Wall Street Journal: The Value of a 50 Cent Financial Planner Is…About a Half a Buck

One of the tenets of financial advisory is the principle of fiduciary responsibility. Today, Wall Street Journal reporter, Jonathan Clements, openly criticizes the strategy Doug Andrew outlines in his best-selling book, Missed Fortune. Mr. Clements’ article, When the “Self” in Self-Interest Isn’t You, attacks the strategy as being completely self-serving for the financial advisers who recommend it.

The author is trapped in the mindset I call “Boomer Economics“: paying down the home and socking away as much as possible in employer-sponsored, qualified retirement plans. The problem with Boomer Economic Thinking is that it is becoming dangerous. The economy dramatically changed on September 12, 2001. We saw a shift of wealth from financial assets to hard assets, hyper-fueled by leverage.

Doug Andrew advises people to redirect monthly contributions for retirement. He advises that they fund a 401-k plan only to reap the benefit of employer matching. He advises that the remaining monthly contribution be earmarked for variable universal life insurance contracts so that the withdrawal from those assets is tax-free. Mr. Clements suggests that this advice comes from “unscrupulous advisers”.

Equity harvesting is another principle promoted in Missed Fortune. It is recommended because home equity fails the litmus test of sound investing. It is illiquid, volatile, and it has absolutely no return. Equity harvesting protects property owners from volatility. Kris Berg describes the challenges experienced Realtors face with panic selling, induced by illiquid property owners and inexperienced sellers’ agents. An equity harvesting strategy, invested in a side bucket to provide liquidity, can mitigate that risk. Mr. Clements directly attacks that principle as being a fee-driven recommendation and misapplies a disclosure offered by the NASD in 2004.

It is a brave new world with extraordinary challenges for the under-60 population. The World War Two generation was able to rely on the paternalistic retirement plans offered by the government and growing corporate America (Social Security and defined benefit pension plans). The Boomer generation presented the government with a distinct threat to those plans. The government answered with a tax-banking Read more

Divorcing the real estate commissions is simply a matter of HUD-1 bookkeeping effected by the mortgage lender

In a charmingly romantic post this morning, Jonathan Dalton gets bogged down in the all-too-common idea that divorcing the Realtors’ commissions would impose some new financial burden upon buyers, resulting in their loss of representation.

This is false. Although we operate by the fiction that the seller pays the real estate commissions out of the proceeds of the sale, in fact, if the buyer’s lender is not willing to fund the transaction, no sale will occur and no one will get paid. It’s useful in the abstract to envision the transaction as being either all-cash or 100% financed. In both cases, all the money is brought to the closing table by the buyer or the buyer’s lender.

To effect the divorced commission in the overwhelming majority of transactions, all that is necessary is for lenders to change their underwriting guidelines, making corresponding changes in the way they illustrate the flow of funds on the HUD-1 settlement statement.

Right now, many lenders will allow up to 7% in sales commissions, to be charged against the seller’s side of the HUD-1, with up to 3% in closing costs, also charged against the seller’s side of the HUD-1.

If lenders changed their guidelines, such that no more than 3.5% could be charged against the seller for the compensation of the listing agent, with no more than 3.5% charged against the buyer for the compensation of the buyer’s agent, the commissions would be divorced.

So far, this is nothing more than a change in underwriting guidelines and HUD-1 accounting. Absolutely nothing has changed away from the paper-shuffling lender universe. The costs to the buyer and the proceeds to the seller are exactly the same.

Not to rock too many boats at once, but it would also be possible for lenders to make their internal procedures and the HUD-1 bookkeeping more honest, putting a little extra money in the pockets of both buyer and seller.

In the chart shown below, the first column illustrates the current procedure. The middle column shows how commissions can be divorced while retaining the psychotic style of accounting lenders currently deploy. The third column demonstrates how commissions can Read more

A Real Estate Recovery in Early 2008, Don’t Be So Sure…

Chicken Little made the famous quote, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Would he have been more believable if he had said the sky is falling, but I expect it to ease down slowly and rebound early in 2008? This is exactly what many real estate professionals have been doing for the past six months.

Here are just a couple examples:

Bob Toll of Toll Brothers, one of the nation’s largest home builders reports to CNN,

I don’t see the market getting better until, at the earliest, April of 2008. But I do think that when a recovery occurs, it will be much quicker than it has in the past because of pent-up demand. You’ve got decent job growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, great corporate earnings reports and tons of money being created and sloshing around the world.

Why April? Why 2008? Since Bob Toll, like myself is a Cornell graduate, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will assume he has concrete data for this projection, but I really have to wonder if he is looking at the big picture. Access to capital has reversed course significantly and has now become a major stumbling block for many would be home buyers. Additionally, Congress is considering adding more rules and regulation to the banking arena, which will inevitably make lending tougher. On the other side of the equation, supply is hitting an all time high. Not only have many of the home builders over built, but adding foreclosures, and longer than average time on the market for regular stock really makes the picture look grim for sellers. It will be very hard for this equation to right itself in less than a year.

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, writes at Bloomberg.com,

We’ll hit bottom in 2007 in terms of sales, but we’ll continue to see price declines into 2008. Prices tend to weaken for about six months after inventory normalizes, and we probably won’t see that begin to happen until the end of this year.

While Richard shows a bit more pessimism than Toll, he too Read more

New Homes Sales, Market Slowdowns, and Investor Irrationality: Looks like its Time to Face a Correction

Tanking new homes sells should have real estate flippers and small investors worried. Today KB Homes reported a loss of $149 Million. Additionally, CEO Jeffrey Mezger remarked in the Wall Street Journal, “We can’t predict when market conditions will improve,” essentially ensuring investors conditions will not improve next quarter. Homebuilders have been feeling the pinch for over a year now, but it is finally getting serious.

Surface level analysis of the problems with homebuilders points to signs of a tanking real estate market and excess supply of new homes in some markets. Given the choice between a new home and a “used” home, most consumers will choose the new one. Additionally, homebuilders have the power to offer incentives like upgrades, favorable financing, and lower prices to move their inventory. Investors in hot markets that are cooling will find it hard to compete with institutions like KB Homes, Toll Brothers, Lennar, etc. This will make it tough to move, even the nicest flip.

Furthermore, this situation definitely signals a slowing in the real estate market. Despite what many have been saying on the Realtor/NAR front, investors and agents alike should be preparing for a real estate slow down. KB Homes sites access to capital as one of the mitigating factors affecting home buyers among other factors. This access issue will affect buyers, as well as more aggressive investors, who opted for no money down loans.

The deeper analysis suggests all of the negative news will eventually affect the market sentiment on real estate. Over the past six months the real estate market has seen the collapse of the subprime real estate market, issues with commercial and investment banks, mortgage rates rise, and issues with homebuilders. At some point investor and consumer confidence in real estate has to be affected by all of this news. While this news may not be the tipping point, investors should be asking how much more can the market take?

Investing is part fundamental and part irrational. At times the market seems to go 90/10 one way, and at times those proportions flip. As more negative real estate news emerges Read more

Buying Foreclosure Properties? Don’t Be the Early Worm…

The old adage “the early bird gets the worm” points to the advantage of being first to market. But, has anyone ever thought about the early worm, clearly he was not so lucky. Many of the people who are jumping into the foreclosure market now may be the early worms.

Typically, I am the first one to support jumping into a market that has sustained a significant decline in fundamentals and an increase in the foreclosure rate. The problem with today’s market is the lack of an exit strategy for this type of investment. Take Michigan for example, I luckily got out of this market in 2005 during a downturn. While I made a healthy profit, the investors who bought properties during that time are now the same investors in foreclosure.

The difference between the 2005 market and today is simply access to capital. Many foreclosure markets have two types of buyers. The most common buyers in these markets are low-income families looking to move into their first or second home. In the past these buyers were able to secure subprime or other credit neutral financing. With these vehicles gone or very hard to find, these buyers have been taken out of the market.

The other buyers in these markets are investors. Typically, savvier than families, investors like to get in for a bargain. Unfortunately commercial interest rates have been steadily rising and the prospect of moving these properties has been declining. The commercial interest rate directly affects the value potential of the property. Consider an increase in the commercial multifamily interest rate from 6% to 7.5%. On a $100,000 loan, that is about $100 a month payment increase. With rents holding steady in many markets, the investor will probably have to eat this increase.

Two to five years ago investors could simply rent a property out while waiting for a sale. That option has almost been taken away with the increase in interest rates. Additionally, having a renter in the property opened the buyer pool up further to cash flow investors. Now, the only investors left to turn to are the speculators, looking to Read more

The responsibility of mortgage brokers and other front-liners in the foreclosure fiasco

A quick note: I am a mortgage broker and banker so I wear both hats. I consider myself in the group below.

Seth Godin wrote a great post the other day simply titled “Responsibility” that focused on one key question: “Are you responsible for what you market?”

His answer was a resounding yes based on this premise: marketing works. If you agree that marketing works then you should agree that the idea of free choice is really not that free. Marketing influences choice. Godin cites the decline in cigarette smoking over the period since advertising has been significantly curtailed as one (of many) examples:

If marketing works, it means that free choice isn’t quite so free. It means that marketers get to influence and amplify desires. The number of SUVs sold in the United States is a bazillion times bigger than it was in 1962. Is that because people suddenly want them, or is it because car marketers built them and marketed them?

Cigarette consumption is way down. Is that because people suddenly don’t want them any more, or is it because advertising opportunities are limited?

This post led me to some new thinking on our embattled industry and the current round of finger-pointing up and down the money-ladder. The common refrain from mortgage brokers as a defense to the “predatory lending” accusations being bandied about by consumer groups and government entities is “We only sold what the banks gave us to sell” and “Brokers don’t underwrite the product.” These notions that depict brokers as impotent pawns in the mortgage game with little control over their actions-resigned to the whims of the banking world, forced to peddle whatever products were made available by the banks- is callous and dangerous. This position is clearly one that Mr. Godin would whole-heartedly disagree with; and I do too.

As brokers we’re responsible for the loans we choose to put our customers in. When we choose to put a retired person on fixed income in a negatively amortizing payment-option loan for maximum rebate with out clearly identifying their comfort level and understanding of the Read more

Pay the Loan Down and Refinance Later? The IRS is Out To Getchya !

Rising real estate prices and serial “cash-out” refinance transactions has the IRS licking their chops. Mortgage interest deductions are limited to the acquisition indebtedness plus a maximum of $100,000 for home equity indebtedness. Scofflaws have taken advantage of the fact that the IRS is not able to track the segregation of loan transactions by loan proceeds usage. In fact, your friendly CPA has probably told you “not to worry about it” when you erroneously overdeduct the mortgage interest for the loans you’ve taken against your home.

That’s about to change. The IRS is requiring lenders to report any and all cash-out refinance transactions this year on the Form 1098. This now gives Big Brother an opportunity to segregate new loans by proceeds usage and set a trap for the willing tax scofflaw.

Let me give you an example: Bill and Jacqueline bought a beautiful home in Houston, TX for $250,000 in 1998. They put $100,000 down and took a $150,000, 30 year mortgage. They set their acquisition indebtedness at $150,000 but were reducing it as they paid the loan through an amortizing loan. In 2003, they refinanced $140,000 into a 15 year, low rate loan as their home value grew to $340,000. They plan to refinance their home in 2012 to pay for their twins education at the University of Texas. They recognize that they’ll need about $200,000 for the twins’ education but figure that they’ll be well under the acquisition indebtedness plus home equity indebtedness limit for tax deductibility of mortgages.

They’ll owe about $35,000, borrow $200,000, and be well under that figure…right?

WRONG. Acquisition Indebtedness is reduced by an amortizing loan, in their case, it is reduced to about $35,000. Add the $100,000 for the home equity indebtedness and their limit for the deductibility of interest will be closer to $135,000. The interest on $100,000 of that loan won’t be tax deductible, costing them about $2,000 to $4,000 in extra income taxes each year.

…and they WILL get caught. The IRS is following the money now. If you’ve used your home as an ATM and haven’t reinvested the proceeds or improved your property, you Read more

Can an $8 Billion Private Equity Fund Affect a $1 Million Commercial Investor? It Certainly Can…

Addressing several people’s concerns about the state of private equity and the possible assertion that private equity could be the next fallout candidate, I thought I would look into this situation a bit more. For those of you who think that this discussion will be outside of the scope of commercial real estate investing, read on and I am sure you will be pleasantly surprised.

At the 8th Annual US Real Estate Opportunity & Private Fund Investing Forum several very important items of note were mentioned. The most significant item is the increase in fundraising efforts, which has moved up from $35 billion in 2005 to $60 billion in 2006. On the heels of that announcement, Morgan Stately Real Estate has just announced it has raised an $8 Billion fund designed to invest in Real Estate in established and emerging markets.

Before I discuss how these numbers will affect the common investor, I want to take a step back and clearly outline what a Private Equity Real Estate Fund or Opportunity Fund does. First, these funds begin by raising investment capital. The larger funds typically bring in money from pension funds, hyper wealthy individuals and governments all over the world. Then, they take these funds and make leveraged investments. An $8 Billion fund will probably invest in about $30 Billion worth of real estate. Investors typically expect returns of 12-20% based on the investment strategy and they expect to exit the fund within the span of 7-10 years.

These funds make a variety of investments. First, they typically invest in all major commercial property types (hotel, industrial, office, retail, and apartments) and minor ones as well (storage units, trailer parks, malls, etc.). Additionally, they may purchase Real Estate Investment Trusts, Mortgage Companies, Real Estate Services firms, etc. With $30 Billion to invest, any and all real estate investments are fair game.

Over the past 20 years the private equity industry has grown tremendously. While the major players (Blackstone, KKR, etc.) get all the headlines, many smaller private equity firms operate in lower tier investment categories. If KKR looks for Billion dollar deals, these firms will Read more

Subprime Lending Fallout Goes Upstream to Take Down Two Major Hedge Funds: What does this Mean To Real Estate Investors?

Two major Bear Stearns Hedge Funds face foreclosure due to their significant exposure to the subprime lending market. While this does not fall under the category of real estate investor, I spent last summer working for Bear Stearns and interacting with many of their hedge funds. Based on the very limited details of the stories out now, I cannot be certain if I have worked with these two particular funds. I can be certain; however, that it would not be a good time to be in the mortgage space at Bear Stearns.

In my three months at Bear Stearns, I met some of the smartest people in the businiess. While this is not an advertisement to work at Bear Stearns, I think they are a very well run organization with smart people. This of course begs the question, how could something like this happen to such smart people? Furthermore, with all of the subprime lending issues out there, what does this mean for borrowers who are less creditworthy?

Simply put, in my humble opinion, the subprime market will be doomed for some years (at least five or more). Since I know this site is filled with a ton of very smart mortgage brokers, I will outline my reasoning.

Consider the following information:

1) Many subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy

2) Major buyers of Mortgage Backed Securities (like Bear Stearns) are having issues with subprime mortgages

3) Despite what the National Association of Realtors says, the housing market seems to be taking a slow and steady turn for the worse

4) Major Banks have tightened their lending policies

Lets take an example of a typical transaction before the subprime fallout. A low creditworthy borrower applies for a subprime loan. Some intermediary or mortgage broker, supplies them with the best loan for them from either a bank or a conduit lender. The bank/conduit lender then sells the loan to an investment bank (like a Bear Stearns or Goldman Sachs) to free up more money to lend and to remove the risk off their books. Finally, the investment bank packages this loan in the form of bonds that investors looking Read more

Real Estate Relationships: Do What you Say you Will Do

The long absence is finally over. After a grueling finals week and graduation, a two week vacation, a move to New York City, and a failed real estate deal, I am back with the pack. Based on the great content that I have seen coming from the site, I can assume my absence has gone unnoticed. In order to come back with a bang, I thought I would share a quick life lesson about real estate. The lesson: Real estate is a people business, so it is important to do what you say you will do, and maybe more, but certainly never less.

Here is a quick example. My latest deal to buy two apartment complexes in Greensboro ended in utter failure because one person simply did not do what they said they would do. Before considering this deal, I wanted to be sure there would be enough financing in place to make it happen. While I could have really stretched, begged, and borrowed to get all of the 20% that I needed for the down payment, my trusted mortgage broker recommended I partner with a local investor. He assured me that he could find me a suitable partner within the 30 day due diligence period, so I proceeded with the deal.

To make a long story short, no partner ever materialized and I was forced to bow out of the deal shortly before the end of the due diligence period. Given my upfront nature, I had already informed all parties that this deal hinged on me finding a suitable partner, which over a group dinner my mortgage broker ensured everyone would happen fairly quickly. Fairly quickly, turned into days, then a month and still a partner had yet to emerge.

In the end the mortgage broker’s reputation was trashed after this deal. My agent, who does a lot of great commercial work in the area, has decided not to work with the mortgage broker again. Additionally, the seller’s broker has also black listed this broker, and I think it is obvious that it will be a cold day in a very hot place Read more

Ask the Broker: What’s up with my APR, and why is it so different from my interest rate?!?

Hot out of the broker oven mailbox today is this question:

I am in the process of refinancing. Can you please tell me what the APR should be for a $295,800 loan? The broker is charging 2% origination fee and 1.5 loan discount. The interest rate at 6.64. I’m not sure if it makes a difference but its a adjustable rate and balloon loan. After 2 years mortgage will go up.

The total settlement charges are $14,590.77. The truth-in-lending disclosure has an annual percentage rate of 10.634%. This doesn’t look right.

I questioned the broker and he said that rate is all the fees and payments that are in the loan. This is not my first time refinancing and I never saw it that high. Why is the difference so much?

Disclaimer: I am not privy to the reasons or motivations for this transaction; nor the particulars above and beyond the above question. Below are simply some general thoughts that stand out from the above inquiry. I could be completely off-base in any one of my assumptions.
I had to step away from the computer and take a lap before responding to this mailbag question. Before we get to the APR/rate discussion there is another point I want to highlight first:

(1) Paying discount points to achieve a lower rate when taking a short-term ARM is always a money-losing proposition. Because this is a short-term 2-year ARM loan you will never recoup the money you paid in points to get the lower interest rate (1.5 points or $4,437 in this instance). In order to simply break even on the money spent for the loan discount in the two years before your rate adjusts your monthly mortgage payment would need to be $185 less than it would be otherwise with out the discount points.

If we make a rough assumption that each point paid in discount reduces your interest rate by .5% (a reasonable assumption on a subprime 2-year ARM, might be a bit generous) then your interest rate with out paying the 1.5 loan discount points should be around 7.39. This makes Read more

Where Did Your $40,000 Go? , or Why Your Buyer’s Prequalification Needs A Refresher

Just a quick note to the real estate agents that read Bloodhound Blog: now would be a terrific time to have all of your buyers re-prequalified for a home.

Mortgage markets are suffering through an old-fashioned beatdown and some rates for some products are now sitting 0.750% higher than they were just 10 weeks ago.

The last 48 hours account for 0.250% of that increase.

Your buyer’s prequal from even two weeks ago is likely worthless.

As a real-life example, consider a client that can afford a $2,100 monthly mortgage payment and wants an amortizing loan.

  • April 7: $350,000 loan size = $2,100 payment
  • June 7: $310,000 loan size = $2,100 payment

That’s a $40,000 difference — poof!

(Image courtesy: American Museum of Natural History)

Podcast interview with fellow Bloodhound Blog contributor Dan Green

At my home blog, Blown Mortgage, I have the privilege of interviewing some of the best and brightest in the real estate and mortgage world. In this interview I spoke with Dan Green of Bloodhound and TheMortgageReports.com. As a blogger with over 2 years of posts logged he has a lot of experience and insight in to how blogging can help you business. Dan sources 25-30% of his business from his blog. Chew on that ROI!

This is the second Bloodhound I’ve had the pleasure of interviewing and I hopefully get to talk to the rest of the gang in the near future (hint, cough, hint).

Because I don’t want to put Greg through the FTP wringer again I’ll simply provide a link to the 13 minute interview over on Blown.

I hope you enjoy it – I know I did.

OC Register’s Matt Padilla talks mortgages, blogging, and the main-stream media

On my home blog, Blown Mortgage, I have the honor of talking with some of the best people in our industry about their take on the current market and the forces that are shaping each of our lives in this profession. I’ve interviewed housing bears, loan originators, marketers and more. The level of ability and professionalism in our industry amazes me each time I have the opportunity to talk with someone new.

This week I had an opportunity to speak with Matthew Padilla. Matt is the Real Estate and Mortgage reporter for the Orange County Register. I was looking forward to this interview because it marked the first time I had a chance to speak with a member of the main-stream media about the mortgage and real estate markets. I was interested in hearing him talk to what he has heard from his investigative reporting (since he does get to spend all day chasing down the stories).

While his insight on the market is, in my opinion, spot on and valuable; the reason I wanted to share it here with you is that Matt provides interesting insight in to how blogging has impacted his reporting and coverage. Speaking with him it became very apparent that what we do as bloggers has caused a paradigm shift in how the main-stream media thinks about, generates, and disseminates news. Matt talked at length about how and why he uses a blog, how he designates pieces for the blog versus the paper, how other blogs drive his research, and a wide range of other topics about the interface between the new and old mediums.

I think that all of us that blog each and every day should always remain aware that what we are doing is of extreme importance and consequence. Each blog post, each insight, each story and personal experience shared by experts such as those I have the privilege of writing with here at Bloodhound is shaping the news that is told tomorrow. If you ever wonder if anyone is listening and you wonder if it is worth Read more