There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 105 of 266)

Is It Harder to Get a Mortgage?

If you’ve been reading this for a while, you’d know that it’s been getting harder to get a mortgage.   Well, today we have proof of it for all to see.   This chart is courtesy of the Federal Reserve (by way of the Big Picture). Some commentary after the chart:

Now for some thoughts:

1. See the line that represents prime mortgages?   Yep, it’s gone continuously up since this started a year ago.

2. See the line for “non traditional?”   Remember back late winter where things sort of “eased off” in terms of credit?  Yep, that’s when those loosened up again.   Well, that’s changed again.

3. Subprime – well, let’s just say that subprime is going the way it should – up so that only those with large downpayments can get them and they end up paying more for them.

So what should you take away from a chart like this?   A couple of suggestions:

1. If you are planning on buying a house or building a house, you better plan on being able to document your income and your assets completely.

2. If you have something “marginal” about your financial profile (income isn’t quite enough, documentation is challenging, credit is spotty) you can expect to have to come up with more of a downpayment and work through more details.   You also might want to consider moving your timeline up and trying to do it now rather than next spring – it’s looking like it’s going to be harder then…..

3. If you are looking to buy a house for the first time, you might have to rent a little longer and save up a little more of a downpayment than you would have.

All is not lost, the mortgage world is not dead, just a bit harder than it used to be.   Call me if you’d like to chat about it.

Tom Vanderwell (616) 292-7559

Dogs in Disneyville: The BloodhoundBlog Unchained curriculum in Orlando and how it will differ from next Spring in Phoenix

We have a venue in Orlando, very comfortable with lots of hi-tech support, but I don’t want to announce it yet. Whether or not by malicious intent, the NAR has dominated every available meeting space near the Orange County Convention Center, so we had to think way outside the doghouse to find what we needed. Suffice it to say for now that it’s within easy walking distance of the Convention Center, it has ample parking, and it’s probably closer to your hotel room than the NAR Convention itself.

We’ve also decided on a curriculum for Orlando. Of the 20,000 Realtors who will be going to the NAR Convention, almost none of them are already working in our world. Many of them are not even in the wired world at all, but there’s not a lot we can do about that. What we can do is go through everything that is a part of our world in detail, building a repeatable, duplicable Web 2.0 real estate practice.

In other words, we’re going to do eight solid hours on what to do and how to do it: How to use your net.presence to attract prospects, harvest leads, manage them through time and convert them, one-by-one, into real-world real estate transactions — producing real, spendable income. If you already live in our world, some of this will be pretty basic for you. But we’ll have plenty of brand new practical ideas to make Unchained Orlando worth your time.

At BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Phoenix, Geno Petro, Teri Lussier and others asked for something like this. From the inside, all of this stuff seems obvious to me, even though Brian and I approach it from somewhat different directions. But in discussions we’ve had since then, both here and in email, we’ve come to see the benefit of building a whole program of ideas, step-by-step. Think of it as Social Media Marketing meets The Millionaire Real Estate Agent. We have room for 500 students, and I would love to send 500 very dangerous real estate agents back to their home markets.

By contrast, the curriculum for Unchained in Phoenix next Spring Read more

There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

Notes for insiders: The legislative thumbprint of the National Association of Realtors is churn. The NAR is not necessarily for or against any legislation. Instead, their lobbyists will look for ways to introduce short-term incentives to churn real estate — artificial inducements to buy or sell real estate now rather than on the consumer’s own timetable. In this bill, getting rid of seller down-payment assistance, introducing the new-buyer tax-credit and revising the capital gains exclusion rules all promote short-term churn. What about the long-term? The NAR knows it will be able to lobby for new real estate-churning legislation next year — at every level of government. This is just another example of the fundamentally anti-consumer character of the NAR.

Here’s another thought: Wouldn’t it be great if, instead of regurgitating Zillow’s gee whiz press releases, the real estate reporters of the mainstream media actually reported on what is really going on in real estate?

 
There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

Having trouble making your mortgage payments? You might be able to make a change in your loan, thanks to the mortgage relief bill President Bush recently signed into law. Under the bill, you can convert your high-interest adjustable-rate loan to a lower-interest fixed-rate note if you meet what might, in a declining market, seem to be Catch-22-like guidelines: Your payment must be more than 31% of your income, and your new loan cannot exceed 90% of your home’s value. Help is available — provided you don’t need it.

Starting October 1st, seller-paid down-payment assistance grants will be outlawed for FHA loans. This is bad news for lower-priced neighborhoods in Metropolitan Phoenix, where as many as nine out of ten homes are being sold with down-payment assistance. Expect to see a flurry of this activity in the next two months.

But the left hand gives where the right hand takes away: Buyers who have not owned a home for three years can take a $7,500 “refundable” tax-credit if they buy between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009. The credit Read more

Friday Afternoon Fun: Can anyone tell me what the hell this bowl of tossed jargon-salad says — if anything?

This came in my spam this morning, and I gave it nine seconds of my full attention: Babbling jargon-filled nonsense, probably with a well-hidden chokepoint to spill coins into the author’s pockets.

That was my instant take, but the truth is I don’t actually know what it says. To the extent that I actually tried to read it, it was too painful for me to pursue.

It could be you have more patience than me. If so, you might take a stab at figuring out what it says. It doesn’t actually matter, since the meatballs atop this sticky bowl of word spaghetti are the same ones who brought us Realtor.com and all the other big-hit NAR disasters. If anyone actually believes these wheezing antiques can outrun the VC-funded Web 2.0 world, I have a few dollars I might be willing to wager. The NAR will solve every problem it confronts by force of arms, as always.

But: That doesn’t mean you can’t have some Friday Afternoon Fun trying to parse the mangled prose that makes up this proposal. Plus which, I’m inclined to be very generous if you should unearth the chokepoint.

Note that this deeply heartfelt manifesto appears on a page full of advertising. Classy… Inman “News” dipped its pen in this spittoon, of course, but that’s such an obvious outcome it’s not even worth making jokes about… Oh, fine. Here’s one, just because it’s Friday:

Q: What do you need to get fawning, uncritical attention for your press release from Inman News?

A: A press release.

Read carefully and I expect you will discover how the NAR hopes to rape agents and consumers over the next decade. But remember this as you read: Divorce the commissions and every bit of this nonsense goes away, as it should.

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Mortgage Market Week in Review

So, it’s Friday again and what has this week been like for the mortgage world? Well, it’s certainly not been boring, that’s for sure! We’re going to talk about six different things in today’s Mortgage Market Week in Review:

Freddie Mac – They started the week’s major news by announcing on Tuesday that they had lost a LOT more money than the market had expected in the last quarter, like $821,000,000 in 90 days. That works out to approximately $380,000 per hour in losses. The markets started worrying about the likely that the government will actually have to bailout Fannie and Freddie. The credit markets get nervous (or more nervous depending on your viewpoint).

The Fed – on Tuesday it would appear at first glance that what they did was a big fat nothing. I’ve done a fair amount of reading and studying of Bernanke and his views and I think I’d have another take on it. What the Fed said on Tuesday was (my paraphrase ) “The economy has some risks on both sides, the risk of recession and the risk of inflation, we’ve made the moves we’ve needed to make, we will continue to monitor things to make sure that the outcome we’re planning on happens, we think it might be a bumpy landing, but we’re confident we’ll be fine.” So rather than a “do nothing” statement, it was more of a “Things will come out okay, just be patient” statement. Does that make sense?

AIG – Not to be outdone by Freddie, AIG announced that during the second quarter, they lost $5.36 billion (that’s $5,360,000,000 or $2,481,000 per hour). Their losses were in collateralized debt obligations (aka CDO’s) that were mainly fancy packages of mortgage debt. Hmmm, that’s a pretty big number.

Unemployment Claims – Initial claims for the week came it at 455,000, the highest since 2002. That’s not a good number.

Pending House Sales – depending on whether you listen to the mainstream media or some of the analysts who look at the numbers behind the numbers, the report is either: 1) A sign that the housing market Read more

How You Gonna Keep ‘Em Off Of The Web, And Make Them Watch N-B-C

Henry Blodget reports that Chokepoint Charlie is upset:

We view the Olympics as a global sporting tradition and consider ourselves citizens of the world, so we don’t have much patience with country-specific broadcasting rights. Thus, we’re happy that we (and you) can watch the Olympics live right here on on SAI.

(Frankly, we wish we could watch the Olympics on NBCOlympics.com, because their feed is marvelously crisp, but of course NBC is doing everything it can to prevent that. Specifically, NBC is trying to make us watch tonight, on tape delay, when the opening cermonies will be as stale as yesterday’s bread. And when they do broadcast events on NBCOlympics.com, of course, they’re not about to let us embed them.)

NBC views the 2000+ year-old global Olympic tradition as its own personal entertainment show and is therefore doing everything it can to prevent you (and us) from watching them live. For example, check out these takedown notices on veetle.com:

You don’t have to take it.  Watch the Olympics LIVE, from your computer, here .

Unchained melodies: Take Five

I’m with John Rowles — and then some — on the true, mostly unrealized, power of branding in real estate. I’ve been meaning to write about it, but I’m sick for the second time this summer, and it’s left me beyond stupid at the end of the business day.

Other matters: We are that close to negotiating a space for Unchained Orlando, this despite the best efforts of the NAR to dominate every meeting space. I may have an announcement tomorrow.

But for tonight, Al Jarreau and three fingers of Irish cough syrup. G’night.


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Sleazy Option ARM Advertisements

I wrote this article on Active Rain, about two months ago.  It’s got legs in the comments’ thread over there.  You’ll see that the REAL reason I’m worked up is that the “new sleazy option ARM advertisement” is to claim that you KNEW it was bad for the customer. The opposite is actually true

I’m pretty high-touch with my neg-am borrowers.  I keep in close contact with them quarterly.  I just received notice that one of them had a notice of default filed against them for non-payment.  The borrower lost his job and elected to use the “side account” he established, from the monthly cash-flow savings, to rent a new home rather than to “feed the depreciating asset” (his words).

Before you comment on the article, you might read all of Dan Green’s “Mortgage Planning” articles.  if you haven’t the time to read all of them, read:

If Low Downpayments Are More Risky To Banks, They Must Be More Safe For Home Buyers

I’d argue the same logic applies for negative-amortization (rising mortgage balances).

Here’s the article:

Remember the “sleazy Option ARM advertisements“?

They’re back but with a whole new twist:

This is why I never did option arms.  This is part of the reason why we are in the housing mess we are in.  Yes, borrowers have to claim responsibility, but every Bank that pushed neg am as a financing alternative deserves the billions in write downs and losses in stock options that they are mired in.  I have no sympathy for them…only contempt!

Oh, brother! If I see one more loan hack Monday morning quarterbacking this mess I’m gonna puke.  There is nothing wrong with negative amortization loans; there was something drastically wrong with the way they were prescribed.  The “new neg-am” advertisements are “posited indignation” and they’re just as sleazy as the original advertisements.  They prey upon the opposite of the greed motivation; fear.  That ain’t helping anybody!

Let me try to break down the negative amortization loan for you:

  • There is an interest rate charged; it may be adjustable monthly, annually, or for a specified period.
  • There are payment options.  One option is LESS than the interest assessed for Read more

A-C-C-O-U-N-T-A-B-I-L-I-T-Y Find Out What It Means To Me

Honestly, I think Aretha got it right – stick to seven letters, melodically I think it just works better.

Anyway – in my family I’ve been labeled “you liberal” – the second youngest of eight kids.  Accountability, Responsibility, Discipline and Consequences were not just words, but codes of conduct – drilled into my skull – in The Hall Household, not at all surprising considering my dad is a ’53 West Point grad.  Punishment was a given – or should I say consequences were always delivered.  Spankings were called “reminder taps” – mind the pun – for at times, taps held near dual meaning if you catch my drift.

I typically save controversial or political discussions for funerals, weddings or family renuions because, being usually void of any emotional energy, I find that people are compelled to share their views in rational discourse – no such events planned in my near future so I am forced to share my views in the emptiness of cyberspace.

Is it me or have others noticed – in reading the headlines, blogs and other online sources, I am struck by the lack of consequences and accountability due to poor judgment – a lack of management shakedowns at some of the largest companies that I suggest are at the crux of the housing debacle.

Starting at the top at Bear Sterns, haven’t heard but a blip regarding heads rolling.  No news of foreclosures on Upper East Side Townhomes or penthouses – no sheriff warrants issued in The Hamptons – no learjet repos.  Government bailout – yep.  Significant management changes due to the consequences of poor judgment?  Nope – just talk of a takeover.

Seems that same is true over at Countrywide – more “seasoned” managers have been moved around and the CEO simply retired – B of A put their guy in charge of mortgages.  Plenty of seasoning but little grilling.  Wamu’s shareholders sought accountability and won a majority of votes to remove the chairman and CEO positions – but not a great deal more – in fact senior executives’ bonuses were shielded from the loses attributed to the mortgage-related business.  I Read more

Know Nothing, Do Nothing Fed Inspires Confidence and Encourages Faith

The Federal Reserve released it’s August statement yesterday and pundits are scrambling to interpret what was and (equally as important) wasn’t said.  Financial market participants have a 10-15 year history of trying to “outguess” the FOMC and focus more on the commentary than the actual decisions.  The result has been volatile market movements directly after a word was changed from “probable” to “eventual” in the Fed commentary.

I’ve learned to trust Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s judgement.  An astute student of Milton Friedman’s study of The Fed’s role in the Great Depression, Bernanke has taken considerable action to preserve a healthy banking system.  Free market enthusiasts would argue that his intervention is artificially  postponing the eventual asset deflation reflective of a dour economy.  I’d argue that his actions were necessary to promote confidence.

Confidence.

Sean Purcell and I discussed the press’ obsession with doom and gloom yesterday.  Last month a Qantas 747 lost a portion of its fuselage, had to quickly descend below the 10,000 “hard deck”, and make an emergency landing.  The 2.0 world gives us citizen journalism in the form of this passenger video.  Watch it and you’ll see a professional air crew inspiring confidence in faithful passengers.

The Australian News realized that “professional” and “rational” won’t sell fishwraps and elected to lead with “Terror As Huge Hole Cripples Qantas Plane“:

A QANTAS jet plunged 20,000 feet and was forced to make an emergency landing after a giant hole was ripped in the plane’s undercarriage, passengers say.

The Qantas Boeing 747, en route from London to Melbourne, via Hong Kong, landed safely today and a “gigantic” hole was discovered in the belly of the plane, near the wing.

Some of the 346 passengers on board told of debris flying through the depressurised cabin, and oxygen masks dropping from the ceiling. Some said the plane had plunged about 20,000 feet after a door “popped”.

“There was a terrific boom and bits of wood and debris just flew forward into first (class) and the oxygen masks dropped down,” Melbourne woman Dr June Kane told ABC Radio.

An option to “lead with the bleeder” rather than the heroism of the air crew.  Read more

The just-exactly-how-dumb-are-you Realtor-spam of the decade: RECS wrecks twenty-six reputations for only a buck

This

incites no end of questions for me.

For example, exactly how will my mastery of Real Estate Cyberspace have improved by sending these schmucks a dollar?

If I send two dollars, can I be twice as wizardly?

Precisely how much value should my clients put on a real estate designation that is just as difficult to obtain as an Official Inman News sippee cup — but $148 cheaper?

Yes, yes, I’m sure there’s fine print, but I’m a high D and I don’t care. Here’s the question that made me crazy for days:

I don’t know of all of those twenty-six people who lent their names and faces to this vastly stoopid promotion, but I know of quite a few of them. Presumably they took some pains to make themselves famous in the real estate vendor space. My question:

Why would they deliberately wreck their reputations by associating themselves with this sleazy wreck of a real estate designation?

I’m quite serious. I’ve had this email open all week, trying to figure it out. I get slimed all the time by creepoids trying to leech away the value of my recommendations, but the sole power I have in the marketplace of ideas is my reputation for integrity. Because I never attach my name to crap, you know that, if I do praise a product, I’m doing so for reasons I consider valid. I can’t imagine taking money to endorse a product, but, surely, it is far worse to take money to endorse a product that — by its own admission — is not even worth a dollar!

And it’s not one wannabe real estate bigfoot up there, it’s twenty-six of them! Reputation is all there is in the Web 2.0 world. Why would they squander the intellectual capital they worked so hard to accumulate?

I couldn’t work it out, but then I stumbled on an infomercial-like sales presentation that made the whole issue clear to me:

Mind what goes into your mind.

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Utopia, Eureka, Eugene!

Now where was I…? Oh yeah, poking fun at my fellow real estate consorts for exhibiting groveling-like behavior in a buyer’s market. But that was three weeks ago and as we all know, a lot can happen in 21 days. It was also the last time I personally wrote a deal or, for that matter, even had a legitimate buyer in my car.

In 21 days they say a person can break a habit, create a habit or change a behavior. In 21 days most solid citizens should be able to negotiate a real estate offer, secure a mortgage commitment, and receive a clear to close letter from their lenders (one would think). In 21 days a well priced property, even in a lukewarm urban market like Chicago, should have at least one decent showing (ditto the above sentiment). In 21 days, the average household fly has experienced its entire lifespan without even having a genetic shot at morphing into a butterfly– unlike his other, more birth privileged fellow insect, the caterpillar. And in the blink of an eye (plus 21 days, give or take) and a thimble full of fate, it can all change…

My parents were married 10 years before I came along–that’s how they always put it; “…then you came along,” which I was cool with, mind you. No therapy issues here. As a youngster I had this imaginary vision of me arriving on some sort of astral boxcar that just came along; hungry and unshaven, in need of a drink and a smoke (lot’s of black and white TV watching in those early years)…God then drops me (already, a somewhat old soul, I’m supposing, thus the alcohol and tobacco hobo reference) into the Petro family just as they were clearing the dishes from the proverbial dinner table a good 10 years after the metaphoric dessert was served. I also have two younger sisters who apparently, just came along as well. According to the little bit I know about quantum mathematical statistics, all three of us could have just as easily been caterpillars, Read more

A Realtor’s Life: Deeply Spiritual and Cheesier

I admit my mind works a little differently than most – I like to write and talk about things that are current – so, in light of the past week’s recent events, I decided that I wanted to correlate last week’s LA earthquake, the current credit crunch and my recent trips to Costco into a meaningful discussion regarding real estate.  Surprisingly, there is a high correlation.

I have a habit of sharing my addictions as many of you well know – caffiene – and yes, Costco – sad to say, I often find myself “dining-out” with the combo pizza, occasionally the chicken caesar salad, 2 hotdogs (for my dogs) and let’s face it – the 2 drinks are essentially free.  Critical in today’s tough economic times.

You ask – how is this even remotely relevant?  Well – after hearing the news regarding the quake, and the follow-up public service announcements locally on the radio questioning what my emergency plan is in the event of an actual emergency – have I made the necessary arrangements for 72 hours of provisions – bottled water, food, batteries etc?

I immediately thought – I need to go to Costco.

Prior to my almost twice weekly adventure – mind you there are 2 of us plus 2 dogs – I checked to see what I needed – a quick scan of the pantry revealed 36 boxes of Mac & Cheese, 24 rolls for toilet paper, 72 bottles of water, two 128 fluid oz bottles of Neutrogena handwash – fridge check – 4 gallons of milk, 36 eggs, 128 oz of mayo and 48 slices of Timberlake muenster cheese.   Hmm – no batteries.

Off to Costco.

Being a Sagitarius, I am by nature an optimist, however, in light of my chosen profession, I am becoming intimately familiar with actual emergencies – the professional kind.  I’ve negotiated some tough deals, fended off irrate clients – but the emergencies I am speaking of are realtor’s-life threatening.  I Twittered briefly today with fellow “hound” Tom Vanderwell regarding Meredith Whitney’s interview on CNNMoney.com regarding the nature of the credit market.  She has a fairly solid track Read more

Another real estate model, a less-radical variation on a current theme that can work within the present regulatory context: A national franchise of real estate franchisors, each of whom is committed to sustaining the value of the brand

I read Rob Hahn’s ideas about brokerage-as-law-firm last week. I thought that much was kind of naive — a reflection of a lack of understanding the legal realities of real estate brokerage — but I didn’t jump in because I thought some of his other ideas were interesting.

Here’s the problem: A law firm is based on 1040 employment. The real estate brokerage safe harbor makes it extremely beneficial for brokers to have nothing but 1099 employees. There is no reason to expect that to change unless the IRS removes the safe harbor — three weeks after hell has frozen over.

The Team model works, but it’s inherently small-time.

Branding could work — but doesn’t — because the independent contractor status of agents dilutes the brand to homeopathic concentrations.

Hard-branding like Bloodhound does can only work with very strict control. Redfin has this — but it also has 1040 employees.

All that notwithstanding, present-day brokers are at risk of being wiped out at any minute by several liability — the designated broker is responsible for every idiot he puts out on the street.

Here’s a solution that makes sense to me:

The ideal case would be to get rid of licensing altogether, to get rid of the broker’s level of licensing or to get rid of the salesperson’s level of licensing and call everyone a broker, but none of that is necessary.

Instead, imagine an IntegratedRealty.com business entity that consists of a franchised brand for fly-you-own-flag brokers or brokerage entities. As the owner of IntegratedRealty.com, I franchise the brand and require certain standards and practices from the franchisees. I maintain offices, so, to all appearances to the public, we’re just like Realty Executives. Except that I am not anyone’s broker, and each individual franchised broker is the head of his or her own Team. They write and own their own contracts, and they’re free to sever their relationship with IntegratedRealty.com per the terms of our contract, with their representation contracts going along with them.

This could be rolled out city-by-city, like Realty Executives, or cross-competitively like RE/Max. Each new instance of IntegratedRealty.com could itself be a franchise, so you could Read more

Understanding How .250 Hitter Out Earns .325 Hitter

I’ll begin by encouraging brokers & agents to read and continue to follow Sean Purcell’s Super Team series. In my opinion it should prove prophetic and timeless. Why? ‘Cuz it’s about bank, and how to add 0’s and commas, the only thing that matters when the score is posted. The rest is like a bunch of artists arguing over being true to their spirit. 🙂

Alrighty then, how is it that there are players who strike out a lot, get 125 hits, and play just OK defense, yet make so much more than those rarely striking out, gettin’ close to 200 hits, and playin’ much better defense? The answer is simple, and it applies big time to real estate agents.

The answer can be found in the answer to another baseball question.

What team wins any baseball game?

A. The team with the most hits.
B. The team making the most spectacular defensive plays.
C. The team with the most runs.
D. The team with the most at bats during the game.

Yeah, we all know the answer. Then why do so many not understand how some .250 hitters could buy and sell .300+ hitters before breakfast is over? Stick with me here, ‘cuz this is hugely important when applied to those working in commission real estate.

Adam Dunn plays for the Reds and makes a staggering $13 Million a year. Incredibly, the guy could figure a way to strike out in a brothel. The season’s barely 2/3 over and he’s already K’d 110 times! That means when the season’s over he’ll have walked back to the dugout in shame over 150 times. $13 Million a year. By the way, since 2004 Mr. Dunn has averaged over 100 runs batted in, yearly. Apparently in baseball runs = bank. Go figure.

He hits .240 — your Aunt Fannie could strike him out on any given day — his defense is, uh, well at least he wears a glove. Yet he makes $13 Million a year. He gets over 500 ‘at bats’ each season. Sometimes over 550.

Let’s look at this through a real estate agent’s eyes. Uh Read more