There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 56 of 266)

What caused the housing crisis? Perverse government incentives.

Form an academic paper by George Mason University Economics Professor Russell Roberts:

Beginning in the mid-1990s, home prices in many American cities began a decade-long climb that proved to be an irresistible opportunity for investors. Along the way, a lot of people made a great deal of money. But by the end of the first decade of the twenty- first century, too many of these investments turned out to be much riskier than many people had thought. Homeowners lost their houses, financial institutions imploded, and the entire financial system was in turmoil.

How did this happen? Whose fault was it? Some blame capitalism for being inherently unstable. Some blame Wall Street for its greed, hubris, and stupidity. But greed, hubris, and stupidity are always with us. What changed in recent years that created such a destructive set of decisions that culminated in the collapse of the housing market and the financial system?

In this paper, I argue that public-policy decisions have perverted the incentives that naturally create stability in financial markets and the market for housing. Over the last three decades, government policy has coddled creditors, reducing the risk they face from financing bad investments. Not surprisingly, this encouraged risky investments financed by borrowed money. The increasing use of debt mixed with housing policy, monetary policy, and tax policy crippled the housing market and the financial sector. Wall Street is not blameless in this debacle. It lobbied for the policy decisions that created the mess.

In the United States we like to believe we are a capitalist society based on individual responsibility. But we are what we do. Not what we say we are. Not what we wish to be. But what we do. And what we do in the United States is make it easy to gamble with other people’s money—particularly borrowed money—by making sure that almost everybody who makes bad loans gets his money back anyway. The financial crisis of 2008 was a natural result of these perverse incentives. We must return to the natural incentives of profit and loss if we want to prevent future crises.

Is This Normal? (What Seattle Real Estate Agents Earn)

We’ve spent plenty of time trying to figure out what’s fair to pay Redfin agents. As part of that exercise, we analyzed the gross commissions for all Seattle-area (King County, to be precise) agents who closed at least one transaction over the past year (May 12, 2009 to May 11, 2010). The data surprised us, so much so that we thought we’d ask this community if we’re making any obvious mistakes.

We sorted the agents by gross commission, assigning percentiles to each. When we didn’t know the commission on a deal, we assumed it was high: 3% for each side.

Agents at the 50th percentile of pay earned $29,820 in gross commissions. Agents at the 75th percentile earned $75,018. You don’t hit $100K in commissions until the 82nd percentile. Then we graphed the data, showing the gross commissions on the vertical axis, and the percentile of the agent earning those gross commissions on the horizontal axis. The result was a hockey stick:

But then we reasoned that a lot of part-timers are closing one or two deals on the side while working another job; so we excluded all the folks who earned less than $25K in gross commissions. This shifted the graph to the right a bit, but otherwise we still saw a very small number of agents earning a huge proportion of the total commissions in a market:

Then we asked ourselves how much money a good agent — say, someone earning $100,000 in gross commissions — has to shell out in costs each year:

Type of Expense Traditional Agent, Annual Costs
Brokerage fee $10,000
Health insurance $10,500
Marketing $10,000
Social Security, Medicare Taxes $6,500
Transportation $3,600
Cell service $1,200
Equipment $1,000
Dues, education $783
IT $1,000
Total $44,583

All told, the data left us scratching our heads. In a fairly wealthy market where sales volume has been increasing, a good agent — someone among the top 15% of his peers — is probably netting less than $60,000 per year. Does that sound right?

Free Market Solutions To Government- Hatched Problems

Got oil in your water?  How’s that government supervised clean up working out for you?  A few weeks ago, I said:

This may be a hard pill for government groupies to swallow but the response to the Exxon Valdez oil spill (more government regulations and a limit on liability) is what caused this disaster.  Regulations offer a false sense of security.  Moreover, when the State manages risk for private industry, private industry will take as much risk as they are legally permitted.  It happened in the housing market and now its happening to our environment.  This is what free market supporters call “moral hazard” which is a fancy way of saying “with reward comes responsibility”.

Still, the chocolate milk pumps into the sea at a rate of 150 gallons per minute.  In my conclusion I said the free market might develop some new technology to clean up oil spills:

The solution?  Government should do one of its two legitimate functions and adjudicate the claims.  The judgments will properly quantify the risk associated with an oil spill so that the industry can better measure that risk.  Maybe all offshore drilling will cease.  Maybe new technology will be developed to bring the oil through the water safely.  Maybe reinsurance products will be developed to diversify the risk.  …but we’ll never know.  We’ll never know because Senator Sara and the rest of the superheroes in Washington are certain that they can corral what Adam Smith called “The Invisible Hand”

and…perhaps the private sector, financially backed by the most unlikely of entrepreneurs, did:

Motivated by the Exxon-Valdez oil spill, Kevin Costner began assembling a team of scientists to construct a machine that could clean up massive spills. A decade and a half later, that technology might now be put to use off the coast of Louisiana.

A massive oil slick creeping to the coast, vulnerable Louisiana wildlife just miles from its path, and Kevin Costner mingling on the lakefront. These are unusual times, and the Hollywood star is introducing Read more

Rand Paul’s take on private property rights is correct — and daring to tell unfamiliar, uncomfortable truths to voters is laudable.

Well.

I’m thinking that “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day” has brought us a nearly universal display of cowardice from the RE.net. If I am mistaken in this, I will happily amend my error with a link and a courtly bow. But I expect there is even more room for quivering, quibbling, cowering, caviling cowardice on this fine and perfect day.

Like this: The position Kentucky senatorial candidate Rand Paul took on property rights yesterday is correct — not just as regards property rights, but as an expression of the errors we need to correct in the body politic if we are to reemerge, eventually, as something resembling a civilized society.

The left is attempting to smear Paul as a racist for insisting that private property owners themselves have the moral authority to be racists, even if Paul and virtually everyone else find that position to be morally-repugnant. This Two-Minutes-Hate campaign doesn’t seem like a winning strategy to me, in the age of the internet. The left will have no trouble finding reasons to hate Rand Paul, but his own tea party admirers may find in his principled arguments even more cause to admire him.

But mainstream Republicans are in full-reverse mode, backing away from Paul as quickly as they can. This seems to me to be a mistake. The tea party movement is an artifact of the age of the internet. At the least, tea partiers check up on the things they are told by the mainstream media. And it seems plausible to me that many of those folks are aware that the United States has been pursuing the wrong policies — as a matter of philosophy — since the end of the nineteenth century, at least. Anyone seeking greater human liberty has to regard this present moment as an incredible opportunity to get ordinary Americans thinking about ideas they might never have considered before. For Republicans to race away from the actual philosophy of liberty seems to me to be hugely stupid.

So let’s start here: Racism is by far the stupidest and most morally-repugnant form of collectivism. This is completely obvious to any thoughtful individualist, Read more

Facebook, Privacy, Monopolies, and Marketing Revenue…

More than several years ago, I used to snicker at those who were (in my mind) overly concerned about Google OWNING all of the data in their disparate enterprises. “What would happen if they would put all of that data into a large data warehouse and mine it?” folks would ask.

For the most part I thought of that as tinfoil hat stuff. (Did you notice where I said “More than several years ago?” I came to the quick realization that those with tinfoil hats may have a point. And it is not on the top of their heads.

Enter Facebook’s latest privacy debacle. Another site (granted social media vs search engine) that appears to be not NEAR as graceful as Google and dancing on that three way line of conundrums between privacy, monopoly (which Facebook book arguably is…FOR THE MOMENT), and marketing revenue.

I read with interest Louis Cammarosano’s take on the subject. And in very large measure I agree. His take was more bent towards the use of social media in business. But the underlying privacy issues conundrum remains the same. We (consumers) enjoy social media. Heck, it’s FREE. (please remember that NOTHING is FREE-grin). Nothing.

Facebook is making a huge miscalculation (in my opinion) by not dancing as gracefully as Google has. They are giving people an excuse to head for the exits when they had over 400 million people comfortably numb. (That is more than the population of the US and the President only gets around HALF of the vote…and you have to ask yourself…who REALLY is the most powerful man in the world?) It may be more of a footrace between Obama, Zuckerberg, and Page/Brinn than one would care to admit.

Could a President really get THAT many people to waste THAT MUCH time at work??? One wonders.

Although Google has danced more gracefully, that is not saying much.

I guess my wish for 2010 and beyond is this…here’s to competition (it makes all parties better), the lack of monopolies, privacy, and to do that, folks need to be prepared to pay for what they receive in terms Read more

@tcar’s manifesto: “Toothy chumps of the world unite. You have nothing to lose but your brains.”

Witness: “The next big project from 2nd Century will be Realtor University. A fully accredited educational institution[.]”

I do not for one second hate to say I told you so:

We know sheep will follow a Judas goat to their slaughter, as will cattle. Now the NAR is testing the idea on lemmings…

Todd Carpenter becomes one with the Borg and the charming little lemmings elbow each other out of the way to dive off the cliff head first.

One of two things will happen: Todd will discover he’s made a terrible mistake and will quit this job with dispatch — I hope very loudly. Or: Todd will deliver us to our slaughter.

Anyone who expects anything other than evil from the National Association of Realtors has either not been paying attention, or, much worse, embraces that evil.

In any case, this is not something to be celebrated, not even to affect to be “nice” in chorus with the rest of the lemmings.

The NAR may want to infest our world in order to destroy it. More likely, they want to take it over.

What they certainly do not want is to approach the public as we do — openly, authentically, concealing nothing. The entire edifice of residential real estate is founded on secrets and lies, and, as long as it is, the NAR will be nothing but a cesspit of tyrannical motives and vendorslut con games.

And — more is the pity — Todd Carpenter cannot take their money without being their shill and their Judas goat — or worse.

I’m saddened by this, because of all the gutless big-name real estate webloggers, Todd has more guts than most. But nothing good for us will come of this, and the only good that can come of it for Todd is for him to escape with his scruples intact as quickly as he can.

Too late for that now. If you’re in for a penny, you’re in for a pound.

Four years ago, almost, when I started this little project, I had huge hopes for a newer, cleaner style of real estate, one based on integrity and transparency. I’ve watched as Read more

Dawn in America: The American Evolution

I’ll say it out loud;   I like that Arizona Immigration Law.  I was initially unclear about it but I read the text , alongside the text of the 4th Amendment.  For me, it boiled down to what  an “unreasonable search” is and what is “reasonable suspicion“.  At the end of the day, I have to trust that the law enforcement officers will follow both the letter and the spirit of the law.

That’s not why I like this law so much.  I support open borders.   As far as I’m concerned, let anyone come into this country…only after we have abolished all the silly federal subsidies like health care, public education, and welfare for all.  Until we do that, we have to ration those silly programs and the litmus test of citizenship seems a reasonable enough hurdle for that rationing.

I like it because a state had a problem, couldn’t get the Federal Government to enforce its laws, and decided to take matters into its own hands.  This law was more powerful than nullification or secession because it asserted the state’s sovereignty, while being in full compliance with the Federal statute. It worked within the system and exposed the system for the folly that it is.

I like it because it is the Bunker Hill of the American Evolution.  Notice I didn’t use an R in that word.  I’m optimistic that reason will triumph over irrational thought in The American Evolution.  There will be no violence nor bloodshed in the American Evolution but there will be a test of wills.  I’m watching it unfold right now:

Arizona made a law.   A few California cities and a Texas city decided to boycott Arizona, for enacting that law.  No conventions, no trade, no money whatsover, from these “progressive” cities, for the “racists” in Arizona.  Sadly, my city followed San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin in the boycott.  Pretty stupid, huh?  Well,  California politicians live in a narcissistic bubble.  The past California influence on the world’s economy has afforded them the luxury of doing what they want, in SPITE of local businesses.

…until today.

San Diegans are yelling  “Psyche” to Read more

Turbocharge Your Income On A Steady Diet Of 3-0 Bases Loaded Fastballs

Here’s what hasn’t missed for me since Reagan was in office — a super narrowly defined database, from which you can call or write, and eventually email. Stop rollin’ your eyes, as this isn’t what you might be thinking. The concept of ‘narrowly defined’ has taken a beating, to the point it means almost nothing these days. I mean a concrete set of parameters, ALL of which must be present for a home to be in the database.

Who’s most likely a potential seller in your market? What facts will be in evidence on tax assessor records? It’ll be a little different for each region, each neighborhood. Sometimes you’ll need many factors, while other areas might need only a few.

For example, in my neck of the woods, San Diego, my Virtual Farm contains real estate investors who share ALL of these factors.

  • They bought in the spring of 2003 or earlier
  • They haven’t refinanced — OR — LTV is 70% or less
  • The property(s) is 1-4 units
  • They’re located in a small subset of zip codes
  • They live outa town
  • You can mail all these folks every month for less than $100. Budget super tight? Do it quarterly, or monthly, or to half of ’em each month. When I used to do this, before I stopped doing business in San Diego back in late 2003, it produced like clockwork. Rarely did a letter generate nothing. My best year produced six figures — from 104 names. When I had their phone numbers, my batting average zoomed, big time. But then, I don’t cry when folks reject me, so I’m willing to make those calls. 🙂

    Let’s use a baseball analogy.

    When constructed as narrowly as I’m advising, this database will be populated by nothin’ but the kinda reduced velocity, straight-as-a-string fastballs delivered on 3-0 counts with the bases loaded. What’d’ya think the batting average is for hitters on that particular pitch — especially since even Grandma knows exactly what’s comin’ — and where? I don’t know, but my experience watching MLB since the fifth grade, plus my years of umpiring at a relatively high level, leads me to Read more

    A Home that’s Worth at Least a Million

    Sometimes location, location, location isn’t the key to defining the value of a home.  Often times its God’s providence.

    When I relocated home to Dallas last July, my brother and his family decided to put their home on the market – they wanted to take advantage of a soft market and ideally get a deal on a property not far from their current location.  They had two offers but neither stuck.  It just seemed like they weren’t destined to move.

    Their existing place was fine but rather than sell, they decided to stay put. An extensive renovation was in order, however, there was one feature of their home that simply couldn’t be changed – their home’s  best feature transcended any physical characteristic, it was a metaphysical connection – or rather a spiritual one.  A bond they shared with their neighbors – Dave, Carol and their daughters Patrice and Anna Basso.  The Bassos aren’t really just neighbors, they’re more like family.

    I believe there was a far greater reason why my brother’s house didn’t sell.

    Just a day before Thanksgiving, 2009, Anna, Dave and Carol’s youngest, was diagnosed with Ewing Sarcoma, a very rare and terribly aggressive form of cancer that typically strikes children to young adults between the ages of 10 to 20.  So rare that only a handful of cases are diagnosed in a year.  Anna’s cancer was diagnosed at Stage 4.  The tumors were identified on her pelvis and the cancer had spread to her bone marrow.

    While the news was devastating to Dave and Carol, the impact was almost as severe to my brother and sister-in-law – they’ve seen Anna grow up.  She was simply part of the family.  There is perhaps no stronger or more overwhelming sense of helplessness felt by a parent or loved one when the there appears to be no hope for a child.

    But again, this is God’s providence.  Where there is faith, there is always hope.

    My brother Mark knew he had to do something for Anna.  While Anna’s health was in the hands of the medical professionals, her emotional and spiritual well-being – as well as her family Read more

    The Kumbaya School of Real Estate Brokerage Values Service Over Results

    For all you real estate boys and girls out there, if you haven’t had the pleasure of going to an Apple Store to buy something, or have a problem solved, I heartily recommend a field trip. Find the biggest most trafficked Apple Store in your area and go there just to watch, listen, and learn. And learn you will. I’ve had what Dad taught me about the difference between service and results reenforced every time I walk through their doors.

    These pages have, pretty much from Day 1, screamed about delivering service, a concept with which nobody, including this company owner would credibly disagree. But results are what BloodhoundBlog is all about. Some, however, have screwed up the order of importance of the two. (Has there ever been a better place for a that said?)

    That said, and this is what I’ve been sayin’ since Dad’s fiercely burning eyes so congruently highlighted the dripping tone of sarcasm when he spit out the words to me — it’s about producing results, genius. I’ll take a gruff, mildly rude manner and give back a thank you if it comes at me hand in hand with timely, stellar results. Yeah, I know, you’re muttering ‘duh’ under your breath. You’d think that would be universal knowledge, right? We all know that’s ultra malodorous crap.

    What many refuse to allow unfettered into their consciousness, is that world class service is as effective as a gelding trying to generate the next Secretariat when it’s not complimenting equally world class results. Think about it. “Yeah, Bob said your service was the best in town. You hardly ever produce results, but your service is without rival.” When was the last time you heard that?

    Think of any service company or store selling product — would you use them again if the results were fabulous, but the service not so much? On the other hand, would you return if the results were uniformly disappointing, but the service on the way to the predictably inferior results was orgasmic? I know I’m risking the tag of heretic, but I’m gonna say it anyway.

    Those who Read more

    How An Activist Government Destroys the Environment

    Sarah Palin is so suspiciously quiet this week as is President Obama.  We’re all kind of holding our breath, as the oil spreads throughout the Gulf of Mexico, with hopes and prayers that it doesn’t reach the Panhandle beaches.  This oil spill is big and its effects might be catastrophic.

    This is not a failure of the free market rather it is a failure of government.

    Greg Swann beat me to this yesterday, encouraged by an email from Sara P,. Miller, but I’ve been talking about this on Facebook for a few days:

    There is no need to ban offshore drilling. Present BP with the cleanup bill and hold them responsible for the secondary damages, and other oil companies will think long and hard about the costs associated with offshore drilling. If the US Gov’t “bails out” BP by socializing costs, it will be one more example of how gov’t makes the world a less safe place than the free market can

    This may be a hard pill for government groupies to swallow but the response to the Exxon Valdez oil spill (more government regulations and a limit on liability) is what caused this disaster.  Regulations offer a false sense of security.  Moreover, when the State manages risk for private industry, private industry will take as much risk as they are legally permitted.  It happened in the housing market and now its happening to our environment.  This is what free market supporters call “moral hazard” which is a fancy way of saying “with reward comes responsibility”.

    We didn’t like the Valdez oil spill but let’s face it:  that was in Alaska.  It affected far fewer people and its cold there so you (and I) didn’t think too much about it.  Now that the chocolate milk is threatening our prettiest beaches, in a warm clime, with millions of people affected, we’re nervous….and it might have been averted had the State not encouraged what might be VERY risky behavior but we’ll never know…

    …because that risk was socialized by the taxpayer.

    Let me show you how it happens:

    Senator Sara  is elected from a Read more

    Gleeks, Freaks, and affirmations that improve my mood

    Talking with a client a few weeks ago. She’s been in her home for two years now, and her biological clock is beginning to tick tock. She’s nesting. It’s fascinating to see how property ownership impacts lives in a big way.

    It is the husbandry of the land — each man to his own parcel — that most makes husbands of us, that sweeps away our willingness to live as brigands or rapists or thugs.

    That applies to females as well, in case that needed to be explained.

    This client was telling me that she was baby sitting for friends of hers, and the baby started crying, as babies are known to do. She didn’t know what to do for it, she tried this and she tried that with no luck, but then without a thought, she began to sing to the baby, and it worked. Singing is not something she’s prone to do. “I never sing” she told me. That little bundle of joy obviously needed comforting and singing was the key to calming the baby. My client learned what I’ve known for years- singing makes us happy and you probably figured out that I’ve pretty much always got a song running in my head as background music to my life.

    All of this is my clumsy and roundabout way of working real estate and singing into one post so I can share a song I’ve been singing lately. It’s campy, it’s tongue-in-cheek, it’s awesome in its goofiness. If you are a newly minted Gleek, it’s okay to sing loudly and badly, as all the most fun show tunes seem designed for that very purpose. I’ve been accused of having a sense of humor and for not taking things too seriously, so it makes sense that for me, singing a show tune like this is as close as I ever get to an affirmation. “Money flows to me like a river.” Yeah, okay, but I’d much rather sing at the top of my lungs:

    “I hear the sound of good
    Solid judgment whenever you talk.

    Yet, there’s the bold, brave spring
    Of the tiger that quickens your walk.
    (roar, Read more

    Professional Development, Are You Doing Enough?

    First, I must say that it is an honor to be able to share my thoughts with such a distinguished audience.  This site and its members has been essential in my professional growth and development.  As such, I found it fitting that my first post should be about professional development.

    As real estate professionals, we have a duty to develop our real estate expertise and industry knowledge in order to keep up with the changing markets and best serve our clients.  Yet everyday I am seeing (both online and offline), professionals who are content spouting off ‘advice’ (and I use the term loosely here) on topics about which they apparently are ill-informed.  For example, a few days ago I overheard an agent telling their client about a ‘real estate investment opportunity of a lifetime’ (that’s an actual quote, I couldn’t have made THAT up).  However, in their cashflow worksheet he failed to take into account property taxes, estimated repairs, projected vacancy rates, etc. which when calculated would make this cash cow into quite a money pit.  In addition, although as professionals we are expected to have a certain degree of industry expertise, we are NOT an attorney or a tax adviser so refer any questions outside your scope of expertise to the appropriate party!  I saw a post on a national real estate forum in which an agent answered a potential buyers question:  “I am considering buying a $52K property that I intend to rent out to bring in income, do I qualify for the $8k tax credit”.  The agent’s response was an unequivocal YES, “Yes, you qualify and it’s the perfect time, I am a Realtor in your area so give me a call”.  Does anybody see something wrong with that answer?  I won’t go into detail as to the many ways in which he is wrong, but you get the point.  Don’t pretend to be an expert in something you are not!

    I fully realize that this is not applicable to BH members/subscribers, as by nature Bloodhounders are professionals who seek to raise the standard by continuously pursuing self-improvement and knowledge.  Read more

    Performance Bonds For Real Estate Escrows

    The world of distressed real estate (only about 90 of my past 100 transactions) is a funny one; all the rules are different.

    The REO sellers are pretty simple.  They have a take it or leave it policy when it comes to negotiations, escrow terms, etc..  Some short sellers however, can be like the  “bait and switch” mortgage brokers of last decade.  The “bait and switch mortgage brokers” would issue a fictional good-faith-estimate prior to pulling credit, getting a good valuation estimate, and checking income.  One week prior to escrow, a “surprise” was discovered, changing loan terms and putting the potential escrow in jeopardy.

    Not all “oops” moments were conceived in evil nor should they be attributed to professional incompetence; sometimes; s**t just happens.

    A similar trend has developed in short sale real estate agent community.  Like the bait-and switch mortgage broker, some short sale agents low-ball the price, collect offers, submit them to the bank, and pray for a reasonable settlement.  Oftentimes, the counters are far apart from the originally accepted offer.  Sometimes, the term changes are issued after the buyer has become emotionally vested to the property or invested  funds to secure a loan approval for purchase.

    I’ll repeat myself; sometimes, s**t just happens.  Other times, the surprises DO come from professional incompetence, poor disclosure and communication, or just plain old deceit. The result is an unhappy buyer or seller.  The collateral damage is consumer mistrust in every agent involved in the transaction.

    Rather than vent about the reasons, let’s consider a private market solution to the problems:  Performance Bonds.

    Performance bonds, issued by independent insurance companies, could seriously contribute to the #rtb movement.  They can be offered by mortgage originators and listing agents alike.  The credibility of offers to purchase, and listings for sale,  could rise with the attachment of a performance bond into the escrow terms.  Buyers could confidently place non-refundable escrow deposits, knowing that the lender has indemnified them from loss.  Likewise, listing agents could rely on timely execution of the escrow if a lender performance bond were attached.

    Performance bonds could lend confidence to short sale transactions, too.  Buyers could enter Read more