There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 95 of 266)

Orson Scott Card on the Fannie/Freddie melt-down: “Would the last honest reporter please turn on the lights?”

Orson Scott Card is a Hugo-award-winning science fiction author, having written Ender’s Game and Speaker for the Dead among other best-selling works. In the intro to this article from Meridian magazine, he is presented as being a Democrat, but it would be more accurate, I think, to portray him as an anti-idiotarian, the post-9/11 movement of liberal, conservative and libertarian anti-islamist webloggers. Card is an insanely great writer. You can find him at his best at his Hatrack River site. As always, I don’t have any great use for Republicans, but I think this is a fine excoriation of the suicidal negligence of the mainstream media.

These are facts. This financial crisis was completely preventable. The party that blocked any attempt to prevent it was … the Democratic Party. The party that tried to prevent it was … the Republican Party.

Yet when Nancy Pelosi accused the Bush administration and Republican deregulation of causing the crisis, you in the press did not hold her to account for her lie. Instead, you criticized Republicans who took offense at this lie and refused to vote for the bailout!

What? It’s not the liar, but the victims of the lie who are to blame?

Now let’s follow the money … right to the presidential candidate who is the number-two recipient of campaign contributions from Fannie Mae.

And after Freddie Raines, the CEO of Fannie Mae who made $90 million while running it into the ground, was fired for his incompetence, one presidential candidate’s campaign actually consulted him for advice on housing.

If that presidential candidate had been John McCain, you would have called it a major scandal and we would be getting stories in your paper every day about how incompetent and corrupt he was.

But instead, that candidate was Barack Obama, and so you have buried this story, and when the McCain campaign dared to call Raines an "adviser" to the Obama campaign — because that campaign had sought his advice — you actually let Obama’s people get away with accusing McCain of lying, merely because Raines wasn’t listed as an official adviser to the Obama campaign.

You would never tolerate Read more

The GPhone is Here…and Here are My Thoughts

I was pleasantly surprised to come home from the grocery store last night and see a package from T-Mobile w/ my new G1.  My girlfriend wasn’t so pleasantly surprised b/c it meant that I would for the most part ignore her for the evening while playing with my new toy.  Here are my first impressions:

  1. If you’re already a Google fanboy, you’ll love it.  When you fire it up, it prompts you for your google ID, and you’re done.  Your email, calendar, and contacts are all seemlessly integrated with the phone.  You don’t have to lose your @mywebsite.com email address, either.  Using Google Apps, you can allow big G to give you all their services for free, and retain your branding.
  2. The App Marketplace is REALLY thin right now, but there’s not an app on there that costs.  I immediately installed Accuweather (which I had on my BB,) and Plusmo College Football (which was already available for IPhone.)
  3. Coming from the BB, I like the trackball + touchscreen navigation.  Very easy to maneuver websites with a lot of small nav buttons using the trackball, and very quick to navigate easier sites with the touchscreen.
  4. I’m assuming b/c they piggybacked off the 1-800-GOOG-411 technology, the voice dialer actually works REALLY well.
  5. There’s no port for headphones, which is really annoying.
  6. Amazon MP3 is every bit as good as itunes.
  7. So if you rotate the g1 on its side the screen does NOT adapt.  It’s very easy to navigate through w/o using the keypad, so I think this was a pretty silly move.  I’m not sure if they can do a soft upgrade using the compass or something, but I hope they can.
  8. The messaging is not as consolidated as the BB.  I really like getting my sms, mms, and emails all in the same viewer.  There doesn’t appear to be an option for that here.
  9. The browser isn’t quite as nice as the Iphone’s.  The Iphone browser does a good job of autosizing a site to fit the screen – android’s, not so much.  However, it’s still the 2nd best phone browser I’ve used.

So, all in all, I’m happy with the Read more

No layoffs at Trulia: The San Francisco treat is still hiring

CNET:

Real-estate sites had some tough times last week. First, Redfin, an online brokerage for residential real estate, announced that it was laying off 20 percent of its staff, then Zillow, a service that delivers home values and lists sales, announced that it was forced to lay off 25 percent of its workforce.

But Trulia, which lets buyers find homes for sale across the United States, says it has no layoff plans and that it has enjoyed so much growth, it’s actually looking to expand.

“We are not making any layoffs. All companies need to be smart in this environment and adjust to the market movements,” Pete Flint, CEO and co-founder of Trulia, said in an interview. “As a company, we are in a strong position. We always believed that we had to be aggressive but fiscally responsible, and that is why we are in the position we are (in) today. In fact, we are still making a few select hires, where they are important to our revenue growth.”

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Hurry up and wait

Wake up at 11:00AM. Drink a pot of coffee. Smoke a half pack of cigs. Do nothing for the rest of the day. This is my Will.

My Reality, per contra, dictates otherwise. Wake up at 5:55AM to the clanging of the Metra train bells across the street. (I don’t know how but at least 20 people a year find a way to get run over by a commuter train in this city, thus…the clanging bells at every turn and at all hours of the sleep cycle.) One medium cup of half decaf because my doctor is a cruel and unusual man. Smoke nothing because I kicked the actual habit years ago (although mentally, I’m still a two pack a day guy). Do nothing for the rest of the day.

And by doing nothing I mean waiting around in my real estate uniform, ‘tapping my last season’s Pradas’ (Legally Blonde), waiting for all my short sale deals to get final bank approval and inch along to the next stage of amortized gestation. Actually, I only have two of these nightmares recurring right now but they are so big and the characters involved so vivid, it feels like I have ten. Both deals are mid-seven figure offers and either can come unglued with the first hint of a strong Lake Michigan squall. I keep reaching for a smoke but like I said…

I consider the sellers in these scenarios, both developers. I ponder how, not so long ago, they were prospering in the ponzi schemes of their countless construction draws only to find themselves now languishing under a landfill of recycled paper debt, cheering my clients (the buyers) along from beneath, handcuffed and shackled to whatever is left of their decomposing credit ratings. I make a mental note to inform both of my parties that the traditional Builders Warranty probably isn’t worth the bad paper its written on. They will probably both want to lower their offers. Again. He who cares least wins. Hey, ‘leave the gun, take the cannoli.’ (G-father)

I go to bed early as there is nothing left to do but wait. Read more

Tom Johnson to the Realty.bots: All that free stuff you gave us would have been a bargain at twice the price!

In a comment at the Future of Real Estate Marketing, our friend Tom Johnson delivers a fatherly lecture on the facts of life:

This is the free market and unintended consequences at work. There is a reason that the commission rates have been stuck for years where they are. The contingency nature of the listing relationship drives the business. The consumer is unwilling to pay for service that does not result in a sale.

Pouring VC cash into the real estate space has improved technology. The RE.net came on the scene with plans to disintermediate the real estate brokers by tapping into the commission honey pot. This put pressure on commissions forcing brokers to cut costs, so the RE.net responded by giving the services away for free. Free outbound doesn’t earn a return inbound. The cash burn continues, brokers continue to cut costs by not buying RE.net products causing more cash burn and layoffs.

As transactions slow, the commission honeypot shrinks. Brokers will cut cost and redouble efforts to get salable listings, by using the free tools that are provided by RE.net.

It seems to me that the RE.net did indeed disintermediate, but it was not the RE brokers that were disintermediated, but the print media. So here we are, marketing listings for free on the web. Because of the fractured nature of the RE space, it takes unimaginable amounts of time to manage all that free stuff, so we are where we were. The consumer is still unwilling to pay cash for RE services on a non-contingency basis. So, we tweet and blog and facespace our listings, to get a transaction started, and then the real work begins-getting the contract to the closing table. That is the part of this industry that the RE.net sort of forgot about and the cash burn continues…

Indeed. We have seen the future of real estate marketing — and it is us.*

As might be obvious, I don’t have a lot of time for other RE.net sites right now, but it is worthwhile to note that tFoREM has four whole posts this week, a huge number by comparison to recent Read more

This just might be the optimal time to buy a home in Phoenix

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
This just might be the optimal time to buy a home in Phoenix

Who should be buying residential real estate in Phoenix right now?

If you have been planning to buy a home sometime soon, and if you know for certain that you won’t need to sell it for at least five years, this just might be your magic moment.

Interest rates are still deliciously low, but both current events and long term trends suggest they’re headed higher. You’ll probably have to sell your current home for less than you wanted to, but you’ll be buying your next home at a bargain-basement price.

Sadly, you may not have enough equity in your home to move up. But if you do, there are some amazing homes out there selling for unheard-of prices. Houses that sold for $375,000 in 2005 are going for $175,000 three years later.

If you do have substantial equity in your home, even at today’s prices, moving up now may make a lot of sense. The rules for the capital gains exclusion on primary homes change on January 1st. If you’ve been in your home for more than the last 24 months but fewer than the last 60 months, moving before the end of the year could save you a significant amount of money on your taxes.

It makes sense to me for college students and their parents to snap up condominiums and starter-homes while prices are so low. After the start of the year, if the student holds title, it will take five years to realize the full benefit of the capital gains exclusion — approximately the length of a college career.

First-time home-buyers are taking advantage of this market, as well, with low-down-payment or even nothing-down government-sponsored loans.

Who else should be buying? Investors, of course, but the smart ones have already figured that out. For now, it’s very easy to acquire a premium home in a commuter-friendly suburb that will be cash-flow positive from the first tenant. Investor loans can be hard to obtain, but prices are so low that many investors Read more

a Blog is a Place to Connect (locally)…part 1

I recently wrote here on this blog about the need to go beyond REALTOR to REALTOR linking and that a blog, properly implemented could be a GREAT way to attract local RELATIONSHIPS and thus links. I also wrote recently on my blog about the fall of the newspapers, the vacuum that was left, and the advantage that affords us to be CITIZEN JOURNALISTS. And I promised to show some examples of what I was talking about.

Fast Forward.

A group of us got together to help each other find ways to do just that. Although there are (currently) only 10 of us in the group, I wanted to share a few of the cool bloggy ways that we are combining the principles above with some neat WordPress tools to generate local connections and go local.

One of the guys in our group is Scott Hack. He is a REALTOR in my office. Oldham County Wired is his attempt at building local relationships by disintermediating the dead tree media with a community blog of his own. Here are some cool things he’s done:

Used Eric Bramlett’s QuizMaster 3000 plugin to generate a University of Louisville fan quiz on his blog. (That got posted on a local sports forum 🙂 )

Had a friend write movie reviews.
(Greg called it right when he said “Vanity thy name is author” and I can find local community members MUCH more willing and talented than the dead tree media can!)

He’s personally connected as he has done stories about local folks. (Think they might USE his services for Real Estate?)

Used his Google Calendar Feed to power a “Community Calendar Page“. Hmmm…how many folks do you think will come to his blog and connect with him because of him asking for dates for THEIR events?

On my token attempt, Southern Indiana Times, I am using a plugin called WP-Classified (just released in bug free enough to post here form) that adds a classified ad section to the “paper”. I will be adding more to that and using it to garner repeat traffic.

These are just a couple of the ways we are Read more

Greed is Good: How the Rich Get Rich

I think Gordon Gecko was on to something, greed is good. In fact, the combination of greed and fear are even better, or at least they are telltale signs, it seems – for when to enter or exit the market.

Amidst the financial turmoil, Charlie Rose recently interviewed Warren Buffett regarding his thoughts regarding the financial crisis we’re facing as well as to discuss his $3 Billion investment in GE.

A Conversation with Warren Buffet courtesy of Charlie Rose

I happen to like Warren Buffett a great deal. He’s smart yet humble. Sometimes it is difficult to believe that this folksy cornhusker is a billionaire. When Warren pulls the trigger on an investment – and they are generally not small in size – people stand up and take notice. Clearly, you don’t become the wealthiest American by shooting from the hip.

Headlines today indicated that Warren is telling everyone to buy US stocks. Perhaps you’ve heard his quote – I’ll paraphrase:

When people get greedy he gets fearful, when people get fearful, he gets greedy.

I was left with a certain level of confidence despite the current financial and housing crisis – Warren is investing – again, not alittle – but alot. He’s not waiting on the sidelines, he’s investing now. Our stock and housing markets are ripe with opportunity.

Granted we’re all not blessed with billions – but interestingly enough, those who do have the resources should be investing – not in the future – but now. There is and will continue to be turmoil, however, as Warren stated, it is best to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong.

My take and my advice to my investor clients as well as those who are holding out for “the deal of a lifetime”. I think we’re approximately there.

Could prices fall further? Yep, I think they might – but would you rather buy with an approximate risk or some further loss or miss the opportunity all together?

Perhaps this is the most simple example of exactly how the rich get rich. When the majority sit Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Well, here we are and it’s time for another Mortgage Market Week in Review.   This week, we’re going to talk about consumer spending, consumer confidence, the new normal, where’s the bottom? and why interest rates have had a 1 percent up and half percent down swing since last week Wednesday.

Consumer Spending – Retail Sales came out and surprise!   They were down by 1.2%.  With all of the gloom and doom that is being preached in the mainstream media, is it any wonder that people are pulling back?   Nope.   But something that I think is missing from the discussions is a simple question.   Are (or were) people spending more than they were making?   I believe that a pretty convincing case can be made that our society was living on credit and spending more than they made for too long.   It appears that it’s starting to catch up with us.

Consumer Confidence – The same goes here.   The mainstream media is preaching gloom and doom and consumer confidence is down, way down.   Are there cases where the mainstream media are overdoing things?   Absolutely.   However, I was telling my wife the other night that I think being a mortgage guy watching the news about the economy is sort of like being a nurse (she is) watching her parent be a patient (she did this week – Mom is fine).   She said she can readily believe that.   The media is overdoing things, but frankly there are a lot of really ugly things going on.   I’m not going to go into them, but if you want to read up on them (and keep yourself up at night), let me know and I’ll point  you to some good sites on the web to read up on them.

The new fundamentals in mortgage rates. What in the world happened to mortgage rates?   Last Wednesday, they were at 5.875%, they climbed to a high of 6.875% and then dropped back to 6.375% by today.   A couple of thoughts:

1. As the government, not only ours but virtually all governments in the world, has gone on a huge borrowing spree, that has Read more

Sarasota Association of Realtors – The real Cybersquat

If you are not familiar with the controversy brewing around Marc Rasmussen, here is a great place to start. Morgan has laid the essence of the story out for the world to see. Others are starting to chime in already on it as well.

It boils down NOT to trademark (because MLS is NOT a trademark that NAR owns), but greed and envy from fellow REALTORS over a guy who worked his butt off to get ahead. It boils down to an Association that is run amok. They battle a guy and take him to court and when they finally win, and he redirects the domain, they then go to ICANN and try to win the right to take ownership of it, by claiming his domain is confusing to potential customers and Cybersquatting. And he is now appealling ICANN’s decision that will send his site–and the authority that it has built (his site is dominant in the search engine rankings)–over to his association. When he re-directed the domain, the battle was over. He was no longer “cybersquatting” at that point. He was no longer hurting them, but by them trying to grab his domain, they were trying to take away his asset and livelihood pretty much to make a point.

That is not right. That is a land grab. That is PUNITIVE.

He (Marc Rasmussen) is no different than you or I. He built his website’s authority over a number of years. I have known him for several of those years. And because he had the courage to buck the MLS “supposed trademark that they do not have” issue, he had to fight his own “Association”. Standing up against idiocy. Many of us have had local issues that we stood up for. And yet, this one will cost Marc dearly.

My take? (Glad you asked!) I am TIRED of jealous folks at a local Board of REALTORS using thug tactics (and loopholes brought about by IDIOTIC NAR regulations that should never have been made in the first place) to bring someone who is extraordinarily achieving into line with the rest of their Read more

Spread the Wealth Around Real Estate

Ladies and gentlemen, I am pleased to announce that Spread the Wealth Around Real Estate will be the name of my new real estate company. You can call it S.W.AR.E for short. I plan to open doors nationwide just as soon as the election is over. I am a very patriotic person and I want to model my new company after the feds. I anticipate rapid growth and high demand for the exciting and much needed programs that I am going to implement. Keeping up with it all is going to be very taxing.

Our business model is very simple: Spread the wealth around – You don’t need all that darn money!

Top earning agents will give back 70% of their commissions to the company. Then we (the company) will redistribute it to underperforming agents in the office.

Top listing agents will be told to hand over the vast majority of their listings to the worthless bums that sit around drinking coffee and gossiping all day. It seems that sitting on your rear isn’t very productive and we need to help them out.

Agents that have SEO will quickly become SOL! We will move aggressively to forward their leads over to agents that don’t even own a computer. Exactly how they will communicate with the prospect is something that we are still trying to figure out. Do typewriters get online? We’re working on it…

My people (that I’m not really affiliated with) have already begun distributing my autobiography to elementary school students in the continental United States to ensure proper brainwashing. History will soon show my model to be the salvation of the real estate industry. Yes, thank you, thank you. It’s all me. Unless something goes wrong then it was the previous administration.

And, if you aren’t licensed but want to come to work for S.W.A.R.E, just tell the state examiner that you are down with commission redistribution and they will give you a real estate license in ANY name that you wish. It’s that simple! We try Read more

Point / Counter-Point

Michael Cook wrote a thought provoking post earlier entitled What Happens to the Early Worm.  So thought provoking that I found my comments drifting to post length.  So how about a little point/counter-point?

Michael, a very detailed and thoughtful post. I would not disagree with you that cautiousness is a safe strategy (although not always a profitable one) and I certainly do not disagree with your assessment of the people here on BHB.  But I do have some other questions:

The income / price equation did not get out of whack overnight, so buyers and sellers should not expect it to correct itself overnight either.

All real estate is local and that is never more true than now. In some areas we have seen real estate go through the support level of fundamental value (that value which would allow an investor to purchase a property and cash flow). This is no different than the Dow last week. It was oversold and many companies could be purchased below their fundamental value. So are you suggesting that rents are going to decrease in these areas?  Otherwise, the correction has already occurred in some areas.

You are looking at some of the best real estate agents in the business here. So when they write that their business has not dropped off, it might lead the casual reader to believe that the real estate market is not in a tailspin or even that real estate is close to a bottom. Do not be lulled into a false sense of optimism. This group is adaptable, smart and most of all well above average.

Michael, to whom are are you writing this post?  If it is agents then I suggest the new market has caused an industry-wide house cleaning.  Those that do not belong have seen business disappear and those that do have been rewarded; but this does not necessarily reflect a worsening real estate market.  If, on the other hand, you are writing to consumers then I suggest they read you closely when you say that the top agents have found “their business has not dropped off.”  It has not dropped Read more

What Happens to the Early Worm?

Quite a while back I asked a question, if the early bird gets the worm, what is the early worms reward for being early? In this tumultuous market we have already seem many early worms. Several months ago a lot of people began jumping back into real estate only to be crushed by the weight of numerous new market developments. But surely the worst is behind us? Think again early worms…

Real Estate is as slow as the stock market is fast. It takes time for sellers to get desperate enough to lower their price and it takes time for buyers’ incomes to rise to the level where they can afford housing prices. The income / price equation did not get out of whack overnight, so buyers and sellers should not expect it to correct itself overnight either.

The Bloodhound Blog is a very deceptive place. You are looking at some of the best real estate agents in the business here. So when they write that their business has not dropped off, it might lead the casual reader to believe that the real estate market is not in a tailspin or even that real estate is close to a bottom. Do not be lulled into a false sense of optimism. This group is adaptable, smart and most of all well above average.

Consider these national facts about the economy and then let’s draw some conclusions about the future of real estate (taken from the latest release of the Biege Book and other financial sources):

-Consumer spending is down
-Manufacturing is down and declining
-Jobless claims are up and rising
-Housing remains weak
-Housing inventory remains well above average
-Dow Jones has dropped nearly 40% over the past six months

The most significant thing on the list above has to be the decline in the stock market. This represents a decline in confidence in the global economy. This level of decline says that investors believe businesses could be in for sustained economic distress. It stands to reason that businesses in distress tighten their belts by laying off workers and Read more