There’s always something to howl about.

Month: February 2008 (page 7 of 8)

Folk Music, Blame and Fundamental Solutions

A block from my office on one of the squares there’s this guitar player and singer sitting on a bench providing folk music for the passersby. It’s not music I’d actually go out and buy (probably why he’s playing from a bench in the square), but its good in its environment. It’s down to earth, raw, natural and centering. When I’m half bonkers from all the hubbub, I’ll drop by and listen – it helps to get centered.

At the center there’s a clearer, more peaceful world that’s difficult to access among the daily nabob nattering (see Spiro Agnew) and incessant activity. Yesterday, after completing my centering ritual by listening to “Old Mountain Dew”, —

Well they call it that good old mountain dew

And them that refuse it are few

I’ll hush up my mug, if you’ll fill up my jug

With that good old mountain dew

 — back at the office I started thinking about blame while reading some comments regarding the ongoing real estate bog. Blame has little meaning at the center. Some are blaming the media while others blame lenders, foolish buyers making foolish choices, greedy sellers, Greenspan’s years at the helm of the Fed, on and on it goes.

Here’s what Peter Senge writes about blame in his book, The Fifth Discipline:

We tend to blame outside circumstances for our problems. “Someone else” — the competitors, the press, the changing mood of the marketplace, the government — did it to us. Systems thinking shows there is no outside; that you and the cause of your problems are part of a single system. The cure lies in your reationship with your “enemy.”

Senge goes on to talk about putting pieces of the puzzle together to gain an understanding of the whole, how to look for leverage in the midst of fundamental problems in order to create fundamental solutions, rather than get mired in symptomatic problems and tinkering with symptomatic, short-sighted solutions.

Blame tends to lead the mind in wrong directions and use up energy better spent on fundamental solutions. Every day I’m given what is, and I can recognize it and work with it or complain about it and Read more

Choosing A Brokerage

Let me state first and categorically that I am not leaving my brokerage. I actually have been having a protracted dicussion with a colleague about choosing a brokerage. He’s new to town (Arizona) and is looking for a brokerage. Now, I have a different perspective than a new agent might have, and certainly different than a “mega-agent” might have.

For a new agent, I would assume that a person would want a brokerage that has excellent training to help launch a career. If I were new, I would want lots of help. I might like lots of classes, great mentors, lots of broker contact and communication, and possibly lots of “added stuff” like free printing, brochures, business cards, and the like. Of course, I would assume that a brokerage that has all of these extras will charge a higher commission split. I would expect to give them 20 – 30% of my money for these “helps.”

However, if I were an experienced agent, I might like to have a brokerage where I have low fees, very little interference, and a broker that I like/respect. As an experienced agent, I don’t need training, free stuff, and lots of oversight. I just need a place to hang my license so I can get to producing.

Here’s a specific scenario that my friend and I discussed the other day. He was talking to a well known firm that is very large and growing. They have a tremendous “company culture,” lots of education/support, and “profit sharing.” (You can probably guess. . .) Now, for all of these perks, the brokerage will take 30% of the agent’s earnings until a certain dollar amount is collected, then the agent will go to 100%. What is the dollar amount? $18,000 per year. So, after he makes the company 18k, the rest of the money is his, with low monthly/transaction fees.

So, my question is, “Will all of these perks raise your productivity?” Will you earn enough “extra” to justify the expense of belonging to said firm?

What say you all?

Introducing Cheryl Johnson — finally

I can concentrate. This is my gift from the gods.

The human mind is a scattered thing, flitting off at any instant in any random direction. I have the peculiar talent of being able to think about one thing exclusively — literally excluding the whole of the rest of the universe. Because of this, I can write fast, write software fast, think about things down to the last whirling atom. But the corollary is that I am exceptionally gifted at overlooking things. Cathy gets stuck with everything that I don’t want to think about.

I tend to think about things completely, to the point of tedium or even outright aggravation to other people, but I never think about something until I do. My oversights are unspeckled by anything resembling foresight.

All that’s by way of introduction to yet another “duh!” introduction:

Cheryl Johnson lives in a “how-to” world. Never satisfied with the off-the-shelf solution, she fine-tunes her tools — then teaches the “how-to” of what she’s done. This real estate broker and investor calls Los Angeles her home.

CJ has been a boon to BloodhoundBlog since we were brand new. She’s been working with me by email on a project of mine. She has actually built the holiest of holies, a viable community weblog. Add to that her tutorial talents and she’s a natural fit for BloodhoundBlog.

So why didn’t I think to invite her to join us earlier? Duh…

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The Odysseus Medal: Always check snopes.com first?

Amended: The Odysseus Medal goes this week to… no one. The post I had picked as the winner turned out to be someone else’s work. I’ve elected not to award The Odysseus Medal this week and, instead, to gargle with Listerine to clear my palate and my mind of schmaltz.

The Black Pearl Award this week goes to Mike Farmer with Real Estate in A Brave New World:

Despite the rhetoric from politicians who claim we’re on the edge of ruin, there’s a lot of wealth in this country, and it’s congregated in metropolitan areas that have outgrown, or never had, an appeal for comfort, hominess and quality of living. Baby boomers (BB) will have second thoughts about retiring in areas where road rage and pollution are the nicest things you can say about them. These places are where the money’s at, but now a large chunk of it’s in the banking accounts of BBs and will transfer anywhere their hearts desire – North Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Colorado, Tennessee, Nevada.

Many of these BB buyers will want to live in places where they can golf and shop and exercise, walk the streets and smile rather than snarl, join clubs, start a mini second career doing something they love in communities where everyone knows their names and don’t give a fig what they’re worth on a financial sheet – the easy, slow, entertaining, friendly life. I’m talking myself into early retirement, here.

These BB buyers are already net-addicted and I receive emails each day from them asking me about the area, home prices, things to do, etc. – they’re gathering information and making plans. They aren’t in a hurry and they want good, reliable, spam-free information. This has been written about many times – but what many agents don’t realize is that it’s here, now. No one’s predicting the future anymore – they’re reporting. How many are ready?

Who better to service their needs, to be their wise guides, their comforting counsel, to make information gathering and analysis painless and useful, than the modern day, internet savvy, service-oriented, friendly and efficient local realtor?

Many agents will have to change Read more

Avoiding McCain — in traffic, that is

We live in the last affordable ghetto in North Central Phoenix, a little pocket of reasonably-priced homes surrounded on three sides by unreasonably-priced homes.

John and Cindy (nee Hensley) McCain used to live about a mile and a half south of us, in the Hensley family compound on Central Avenue. We bought our house knowing there was a risk that McCain could become president and screw up the traffic on Central for everyone.

Lucky us, about a year-and-a-half ago, after ten months on market and a million dollars in price reductions, the McCains sold the Hensley estate and moved into a pair of hi-rise condos at Camelback and 24th Street — the Biltmore Shopping District.

After last night, I have to rate McCain’s chances of taking first place in the Grand Prix of Megalomania as being pretty good. But if we can manage to steer clear of the Biltmore when Captain Queeg is in town, it could be that Phoenicians won’t suffer much more than everyone else.

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Q: How many razors does one guy need? A: How many free blades come in the package? Or: Why we now have two color laser printers

We have a Konica Minolta 2450 color laser printer. Rock-solid performer, a good citizen on the network, true PostScript, excellent color reproduction.

And, as of today, we also have a Konica Minolta 2550 color laser printer — which is essentially the same model.

Why on earth do we have two color laser printers?

Because we needed a new drum cartridge, and we were running low on al four colors of toner. Big deal, right? It’s just consumables.

Here’s the thing: Four high-capacity toner cartridges plus a new drum cartridge would have run $471 at the best on-line price I could find.

The brand new 2550 printer, which uses the same consumables as the 2450 — and comes with them pre-installed — was $435, shipped.

I saved $36 and got a free printer in the deal. I would have bought two, except the next time I do this the spread between consumables and the full package will be even greater.

In the mean time, I have to decide if I want to try to sell the new printer new-in-box without the consumables or sell the old printer as a parts solution to someone who already has one or more of the discontinued 2450 model.

Is this insane? The idea was that you would give the razor away and make your money on the blades. But if the razor plus the blades is cheaper than the blades by themselves, we’d be fools not to buy more razors.

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Introducing Mike Farmer: Thinker, writer, buyer’s advocate

We’re adding a new contributor today, real estate broker and weblogger without equal, Mike Farmer:

The mythic city of Savannah is home to Mike Farmer, a commercial and residential real estate broker. Mike puts an emphasis on buyer agency, but there is a part of the man that lives simply to write.

Jay Thompson tipped me to Mike’s appreciable talents. I read his work, nominated him for The Odysseus Medal, then invited him to join us.

That’s twenty-five, but I’m not done yet. When will I be finished? When there’s nothing left to be said. It could take a while…

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The Odysseus Medal competition — Voting for the People’s Choice Award is open

Sorry to be late. I’ve worked with dozens of Macs, mine and other people’s, since 1985, and Iridium is the first one I’ve ever had fail to start up. I cleaned my desk today — idle hands — and fired up 96 Tears, a ten-year-old G3, for the first time in months, the second time in more than two years. No problem. Cameron had a IIci running on his desk for more than twelve years.

Anyway, there are 20 entries on the short list this week, out of a long list of 113 posts. News, yes, but some truly thoughtful think pieces, too.

Vote for the People’s Choice Award here. You can use the voting interface to see each nominated post, so comparison is easy.

Ahem: Please don’t spam all your friends to come and vote for you. First, what we’re interested in is what is popular among people who would have been voting anyway. And second, I’ll eliminate you for cheating. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Voting runs through to 12 Noon MST Wednesday this week. I’ll announce the winners of this week’s awards soon thereafter.

Here is this week’s short-list of Odysseus Medal nominees:

< ?PHP $AltEntries = array ( "Brendan King -- Change Your State of Mind Change Your State of Mind”,
“Dan Green — Another Rate Cut
With Another Rate Cut, The Federal Reserve May Be The Proverbial \”Fool In The Shower\”“,
“Dan Green — Database Marketing In The Business Of Personal Relationships, Database Marketing Is More Effective Than SEO Marketing“,
“Dustin Luther — dothomes DotHomes Launches US Home Search Tool“,
“Geno Petro — A Mastermind of Hucksters A Mastermind of Hucksters“,
“Jeff Brown — Getting Off the Ground Principles of Flight and Real Estate — Getting Off the Ground“,
“Jillayne Schlicke — Walk Away If You Walk Away, I’ll Walk Away“,
“Jim Duncan — I hear rumors all the time I hear rumors all the time“,
“Joel Burslem — dothomes International Real Estate Search Site Makes a Move into US“,
“Joel Burslem — The New MicroHoo Real Estate The New MicroHoo Real Estate“,
“Kevin Boer — dothomes Do We Really Need Yet Another Real Estate Search Site?“,
“Kris Berg — Going Green Going Green – finally!“,
“Kris Berg — Joe and Marge Joe and Marge“,
“Marc Grayson — Are Read more

Back among the living…

I’m even caught up on my email, if only because I was dealing with mission-critical stuff in Squirrel Mail, a Eunuchs server-side mail client written in 1474. Motto: It’s Pre-Colombian!

Now: 327 unread posts in my feed-reader.

The Odysseus Medal will issue forth with dispatch, honest.

How much to repair the Mac: $0.

Priceless…

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Fair assessment of risk or Redlining?

Last week on my blog I noted what would happen if my local real estate market were to become a “declining market.”

This week brings a perspective from the Washington Post and the Consumerist that “declining markets” equate “redlining.”

Redlining:

Redlining refers to the illegal practice of refusing to make residential loans or imposing more onerous terms on any loans made because of the predominant race, national origin, etc., of the residents of the neighborhood in which the property is located.  Redlining violates both the FH Act and the ECOA.

Does the determination that a particular neighborhood or area has declining values really equate racial redlining, or are the lenders using good judgement (something they seemed to have been lacking over the past few years)?

Race is a tricky and always delicate topic, but I just don’t see the parallel between declining values and race.

One of the folks at FortiusOne sent me a link to this map showing the counties listed by Countrywide as declining.

Declining-Markets-From-Geocommons

No joy in Bloodville…

The power supply on my Mac has bee acting flaky for weeks. Last night it finally died the true death, so I have to take it to the Apple Store to get it swapped out.

So there are three special prizes in my CrackerJack box:

  • No Mac
  • Windows instead
  • A delay in the judging of The Odysseus Medal competition

I’m guessing that enough people will be in the thrall of the Super Bowl that I won’t be missed. (For my own part, I think football could only be improved if the games were played in national forests. With Redfin agents as the referees.)

In any case, like the Phoenix herself, I’ll be back to normal shortly.

 
Amending this: Monday afternoon, he sobbed. I’ll do the Odysseus Medal tomorrow night, using Noon today as the cut-off for this week’s nominees. My apologies. In the mean time, it’s like I’m in Vegas — limited connectivity — but without the views or the liquour.

Understanding the Laffer Curve — Reality & Myth — What’s Next?

Being just slightly to the right of Attila the Hun, taxes are of great import to me. I believe in principles long established. One of them is small government works better for its citizens than large government. Lower taxes are better than higher taxes as long as the bills are being paid, our military is strong enough to deter aggressors, and basic constitutional government functions are adequately funded.

One of the breakthrough economic theories to be proven in the red hot fire of real life application has been the Laffer Curve. Arthur Laffer’s theory was adopted as fundamental to economic recovery by Ronald Reagan during his 1980 presidential campaign.

I’ll let the video below speak for itself, but will allow myself a few pithy observations.

The first time the Laffer Curve Theory was applied tax revenues skyrocketed. The U.S. Treasury’s own records show revenues generated from the early 1980’s tax cuts went up an aggregate 95%. The period measured was the time Reagan took office until he left office — just short of double in eight years. I expect this will be shown in Parts II and III when they’re released.

Actually, the first time the theory was applied was before anyone, including Laffer himself had even thought of the Laffer Curve. It was John Kennedy who cut the top marginal rate from (I’m not making this up.) about 90.5% (!) down to a paltry 70%. The reason Kennedy used was that it would spur the economy, and increase the actual tax dollars collected. Go figure. History shows he was dead on right. That top rate remained until Reagan cut it to 28% over two decades later.

Opinion — If we ever get income taxes, capital gains taxes, and corporate taxes where they belong, and combine them with cuts (elimination?) in the fat of government spending — we’ll see an economic surge that will make the Reagan boom look like a blip on the screen. But alas, I daydream. Cockroaches as a species will die before pork barrel spending does.

Opinion — Together with the significant liquidity increases in both the U.S. and European Read more

If Suddenly Your Phone Is Ringing Off The Hook…

Then You Must Live In A Super-Duper Tuesday State

With the advent of the “Do Not Call” lists and associated laws, most of us have enjoyed some level of peace from the cacophony of telemarketers.

That is, until recently.

There were loopholes left in the “Do Not Call” bill. Particularly noticeable is the loophole for political candidates and political parties – as well as other so-called “non-profit” organizations.

Isn’t it funny how once again, those who “rule” over the dumb-masses are exempt from the laws they pass on the rest of us? How many of us, as Realtors, have wanted to call a FSBO – only to realize that they are on the Do Not Call list?

Is our livelihood less important than theirs?

And now, in this Presidential election year, we have before us a set of choices that do not inspire me at all. Oh sure, we have the first woman or African-American that has a chance of winning… but neither in my estimation is qualified for the job. I just don’t view a few years in the U.S. Senate – with no substantial legislative accomplishments – as a qualification.

On the other side of the aisle, I don’t see any great choices, either. We’ve got one guy who has helped pass laws that are outright unconstitutional – and positions that are at odds with what I feel are in the best interests of the country… and another who lifts his political finger in the air to decide what his core values are – and picks up his checkbook to bludgeon his opponents.

On top of everything else, our system is set up in such a way that most of the field has been eliminated before most of us get to cast our first ballot. Think about it – only three million ballots have been cast, yet we’re down to four or five candidates.

So for most of us – we won’t be casting a vote FOR anyone… because many of us have watched our first choice get eliminated in the first few rounds. Instead, we’ll be choosing between the lesser of two evils. Or at least Read more

A new way to howl: Announcing “The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees” — the weblog

Apart from the normal crush of business, I’ve been hammering away for the past few weeks on a huge project — which I’ll be announcing shortly. In the mean time, I’ve wanted to make a further elaboration on the Long List lister I made a few weeks ago. That tool will echo The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees as they come in, but I wanted something that could be subscribed to by feed reader, as well.

It occurred to me to push the data out as a feed on my own, but instead I decided to build a link blog. I did that tonight. You can see it by clicking here.

This is a pure link blog — no commentary and no comments. I’m just drawing attention to the 75-100 posts that are making The Long List every week. You can see what’s new by visiting the weblog, but the ideal way to use this tool is simply to subscribe to the feed.

The Long List is updated several times a day, so you’ll always be abreast of the very best writing in the RE.net.

The other end of the pipeline commands your attention, as well: If you see something you think is truly great, and if it’s not already on The Long List — nominate it.

Here’s a trick, if you’re interested. Go to this nomination form, then drag it into your browser’s tool bar or save it in your bookmarks. The when you see a post you like, open the form in a new tab, so you can swap back and forth to paste in the title and URL.

On my end, the nomination process is by now almost completely automated. I moderate for porn and spam, of course, but I can normally update both the The Long List list box and The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees weblog with one click.

One of the things that I like best about this new weblog is that, from today going forward, The Long List will endure, instead of evaporating every Monday.

Anyway, the new weblog is open for business. Visit the blog, subscribe to the feed Read more