There’s always something to howl about.

Month: July 2008 (page 2 of 8)

A real estate sign of the times: Our first custom yard sign printed in both English and Spanish

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
A real estate sign of the times: Our first custom yard sign printed in both English and Spanish

We do things that other brokers in the Phoenix area don’t do. We’re not the busiest listing brokerage — not by miles — but we’re among the most aggressively innovative in our marketing practices.

Our yard signs have always been very big, to try to grab as much attention as we can get for our listed homes, but for the past two years we have been building custom signs for our listings.

Working with Signs By Tomorrow in Peoria, we have been able to build huge, custom, four-color signs for our listed homes — featuring giant photographs of the interior and exterior of the house and custom descriptive copy about the property.

Our signs stop traffic. I know because I will often sit in my car a block or two away and watch passing cars as they slow down and stop to take in the sign, look over the house and grab a flyer.

We have a home listed in Peoria right now, and we took things one step further for this property. We know that a significant number of people in the surrounding area speak Spanish as their first language, so both the flyer and the custom sign are printed with one side in English and one side in Spanish.

Working from the English version of the Flyer, Enrique Lopez of YourPrintSource.com prepared the Spanish translation. This copy was typeset for both the flyer and the sign. If you approach the home — 7813 West Beryl Avenue — from the East, you’ll see the sign and flyer in English. From the West, you’ll see the sign and flyer in Spanish.

Just because there’s no reason not to, the photos on each side of the sign are unique. Instead of four pictures, we were able to use eight.

We also added a Spanish version of the flyer to the MLS listing so that Spanish-speaking buyers can read about the features of the home.

Regardless of our endlessly-debated border policies, as Read more

What’s the obstacle to a paperless, iPhone-able real estate transaction? The sclerotic real estate industry itself

This is my column for last week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
What’s the obstacle to a paperless, iPhone-able real estate transaction? The sclerotic real estate industry itself

I carry my digital still camera and my Flip video camera with me wherever I go. I have belt-mounted camera cases, so they’re easy to carry, never in the way. I keep those two cameras with my car keys, along with everything else I take with me when I put my keys in my pocket: My wallet, my business cards, my watch, my phone, my Bluetooth headset and my MLS key.

All of these things are small and portable, either pocketable or belt-mounted, but I have almost all of the tools of my trade upon my person when I leave the house. I look like a cop — not always a bad thing — but I have my stuff with me so that I can work when I need to.

This is what I want for the iPhone or for some later iteration of the idea of a hand-held computer. A laptop or a notebook computer is luggable, not portable. Even rechargeable printers are luggable, not portable. I might have a laptop and printer in my trunk — absorbing damage from every bump in the road and cooking in the summer heat — but I don’t have that computing power on my person.

My dream is simple: Everything that I might do on a desktop or laptop computer, I want to be able to do from a hand-held computer. I’m perfectly happy to give up printed documents if I can shoot PDFs in all directions at will. This sounds almost implausible, but I think we might be down to the sclerotic real estate industry itself as the obstacle: Realtor associations, lenders, title companies, and all of the many branches of government.

It’s common, when discussing ideas like this, to throw up technical issues. The technical problems are truly trivial. The problem we face in real estate is the dinosaur mentality of our leadership. Properazzi.com has an iPhone interface, as do Zillow.com and Trulia.com. The National Association of Realtors Read more

Any BloodHounds looking for a lead in Ghana?

We have a feature called “Ask Our Agent” on our Listing Detail Pages where people can do just that, no registration required and anonymously if they so choose.

Today, for the first time, we got our first “African Diplomat” phisher, and it is such a relief. Up to now, almost all of the questions have been legitimate, and none the bogus ones were from African con men. I was insulted, to be honest, but now we have arrived! A Minister from Ghana wants to buy a $25m residence/hotel:

DEAR SIR,

I AM CONTACTIN YOU ON BEHAVE OF HONORABLE DR RICHARD ANANE MINISTER, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GHANA. I AM CONTACTING YOU IN RESPECT OF HOUSE PROPERTIES FOR PURCHASE AS CONTAINED IN YOUR PROFILE.
HE WANT A RESIDENTIAL HOUSE FOR HIS FAMILY IN YOUR COUNTRY. THE LOCATION MUST BE OUTSIDE THE CITY. AND IT MUST HAVE ALL HOUSE COMFORTS.AND THIS PROPERTIES ARE ESTIMATED $25 MILLION US DOLLAR BOTH THE RESIDENTIAL HOUSE AND THE HOTEL.

IF YOU ARE CAPABLE AND WILING TO SECURE THE ABOVE MENTIONED PROPERTIES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE CONTACT ME TELL:00233-246-430-865.SO THAT I CAN TELL YOU WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS PURCHASE.

THIS PURCHASE MUST BE VERY CONFIDENTIAL BECAUSE OF HIS POSITION IN THE GOVERNMENT.

EXPECTING YOUR SWIFT RESPONSE,MR.MICHAEL JOEL.

How awesome is that? Textbook! Here is the response I just emailed back, for your Saturday AM enjoyment:

Dear Sir:

I am contacting you on behalf of the former CEO of a mortgage originator here in the US. I got your email address from a Real Estate agent who, as I write this, is in the driveway trying to figure out how to program the GPS in her Lexus to locate $25 million residence/hotel properties for your minister. She is very excicted to help, and wants you to know that she is ready and willing to provide you with access to her bank accounts just in case you need help moving money around, no questions asked.

Your communication could not have been more timely. I can tell by your choice of an @yahoo.com email address like mine and your willingness to initiate multi-million dollar deals with people you have never met that Read more

The Youth Myth: Why It’s Hip To Be Square in Real Estate Brokerage

You’re just back from Inman Connect?  Forget everything you heard there.  Chasing the hip, young 18-34 market is great if you’re selling sneakers but could be detrimental to the health of YOUR business for the next 7 years.  Here’s why:

Five reasons why you should avoid the 18-34 year old market for the next 7 years:

1- They ain’t got no money.

2- They don’t trust real estate as an investment.  This demographic believes that real estate is either perpetually overpriced or that it is dangerous.  Some eschewed the asset class, some leveraged it irresponsibly and lost.  It’s not that they don’t trust you because you’re a shady REALTOR, they don’t trust your product.

3- They view you as a functionary.  Your value hasn’t been established to them because they haven’t had good experiences with real estate.  They see you as an over-priced clerk because they watched you make “easy money’ while they chased the overpriced asset.

4- They need a lot of education…lots of it.  Since old is now new (in lending), the young are basically dinosaurs.

5- They really don’t have any “pain”.  They’ll be focusing on mitigating losses rather than maximizing wealth.  Their “pain” is best served by loss mitigation specialists and not wealth maximizers.

So…if that’s true, why the hell are you screwing around on Facebook and Twitter? Because the fastest growing user groups on those two social networks are the cheese, baby…the 45-65 age group.  If you want to sell or finance a lot of homes in the next 7-10 years, look for the baby boomers. Here’s why:

Five reasons the 45-65 market is the ticket to “real estate riches” until 2015:

1- They have the money and they’re getting a truckload more .  Baby boomers are in their peak earning years and are inheriting the largest transference of wealth, in history, as their WW2 generation parents pass away.

2- Boomers LOVE and trust real estate as an investment.  They’ve had great experiences with real estate as an asset class want to own 2 or 3 homes in retirement (this is a group that could buy twice as many properties as their children in the next Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Well, here we are on Friday again and I’m trying to figure out how to summarize all that’s been happening in the mortgage and financial worlds.   I could write a book about it, but I won’t (at least not today….)
So, here goes:
The week started out with Wachovia (the 4th largest bank in the country) announcing that they were getting out of wholesale lending.   That started a lot of people wondering how bad things were at Wachovia because Indymac announced that on a Monday and by Friday they were shut down.    On Tuesday, Wachovia announced that they lost a LOT of money ($8.9 billion to be exact) in the 2nd quarter.   But guess what, their CEO stood up and said, “I’m confident that we’re going to be fine,” and their stock went up.
Then we move on to our dear friends at Washington Mutual and they only announced a loss of $5.9 billion and announced that they were going to initiate cost cutting measures that will save them $1 billion.  Oh and their CEO stood up and said, “We aren’t going to need to raise any more money.”   And their stock went up.
In the interest of full disclosure, Fifth Third announced our earnings (losses) for the quarter.   Compared to these two, we did quite well, but we didn’t do as good as we’d like.   We came in down $202 million for the quarter.   But our CEO stood up and said, “We’ve made adjustments, we’ve raised additional money and we’ll be fine.”   Guess what our stock did?  Yep, it went up.
Existing Home Sales came in lower than expectations.   If you’ve been reading this for a while, you know my feelings on the year over year comparisons.   We’ve moved into a new market and comparing last year to this year is like comparing me to Tiger Woods.   There is no comparison because we aren’t even on the same playing field.
Weekly unemployment claims came in higher than expected.

National City came out and announced a huge loss for the 2nd quarter – $1.78 billion.   Their CEO stood up and said (Well, Read more

The Epic Battle Ensues: Realtor vs. Realtwhore

Not sure if you’ve visited TruliaVoices lately – there is an active thread currently running, at last count, 1,599 responses. I believe that is the longest running thread in Trulia’s fledgling history. The poster has since updated the question with more information qualifying the question due to the overwhelming number of responses, however, the basic question is, “Why should someone buy in this market?”

When initially posted, the question was a legitimate query into an expert’s view as to why someone in the poster’s circumstances should buy in Chicago. Personally, I had a problem with the question – should the response be a multiple choice response?

a. buy low, sell high
b. interest rates are at historically low levels
c. Jill is half as tall as Bill and 3/4 tall as Sally
d. Vicodine
e. There is insufficent data to answer to this question

I like “e” – and for the first time in almost 30 years, I can now fully appreciate the significance of that answer on the SATs. For those of you who found Vicodine to be the logical choice, may I suggest an intervention?

Ok – so I’ve been following the thread from time to time, watching it morph from being a useful discussion to – lately – a discussion regarding the existence of nuclear weapons in Israel. Almost like a game of telephone gone bad. More disturbing to me however is how the question has evolved into a rhetorical question “WHY THE HELL would someone buy in this market? What are you, an idiot?”

If you’re familiar with the TruliaVoices rating scheme, you understand that comments are rated by either a thumbs up or thumbs down. Honestly, I think there’s a conspiracy brewing. As you read the responses of the many realtors who answered the question, “There is no better time to buy!”, many of those responses were met with a burrage of thrumbs down. You can almost hear the resounding “BOO!”, “LOSER!” – you know, while you’re at, why don’t you just poke me and call me fat.

On the Read more

Open sourcing and spiking the punchbowl with anarchism. REBarCamp is birthed as a user generated unconference and it absolutely rocks!

There’s no question that I felt a lot of anxiety in having possibly two hundred people show up for a BarCamp event without a “well structured agenda”. Nearly the entire event was created by using a variety of social media tools, our fearless unorganizer, Andy Kaufman led the charge into creating an unprecedented event for Real Estate professionals.   The black pearl from REBarCamp is letting go of control and operating without hierarchy can work to generate progressive brainstorming.   The many volunteers and attendees should be real proud of themselves for putting on what was probably the most unique event Real Estate Technology has ever seen.  I wished I had more time to parse some of the data I know that’s being posted to the web right now, but I’m working on transacting 3 of the most challenging deals I’ve had in two years.

The videos below give a post wrap up perspective by a few of the Campers.

Mike price of ML Broadcast chimes in for substance and structure.

Mike Price video

Daniel Rothamel who’s “not big on circles” say’s we hit a home run.

Daniel Rothamel video

Todd Carpenter and BarCamp mastermind Andy Kaufman managed to even get some value despite all the cat herding.

Todd and Andy video

David Gibbons of Zillow, which sponsored Beer for Bloggers downstairs after the event, shares what a vet of social media learned and I think my Greg Swann” sneaks out as I give the Cafe Du Nord a mention. This of course, was recorded after my first celebratory pint of Racer Ale.

David Gibbons video

Many thanks to all of the amazing sponsors, volunteers, and participants for making this happen. I’m looking forward to gathering some more feedback as it comes in.

The Top 7 Things Every Home Buyer Should Know…..

Okay, yesterday, I dealt with the theoretical and philosphical in our discussion of moral hazard.   Almost more of a topic for a college class than a blog about the mortgage world, don’t you think?

Well, today we’re going to get more into the every day nitty gritty with the Top 7 things (in random order) that I think everyone who is looking to buy or sell in today’s market needs to know:

1. 6 months ago is ancient history. What your neighbor sold his house for 6 months ago doesn’t matter.   What the seller was asking for the house 6 months ago doesn’t matter.   What matters is what the market will support today.

2. Don’t worry so much about what you paid for your house. Instead, look at the difference between what you can expect to sell your house for and what it’s going to cost you to buy the new one that you want.   I expect you’ll find that those are much more important numbers (unless you end up without any equity in which case you don’t sell).

3. Now is not the time for do-it-yourselfers. When the inventory levels are, depending on property type and area, any where from twice as much as is healthy (single family homes near my hometown) to 750% as much inventory as there should be (condos in Florida from what I’ve heard), you need to find a professional to help you navigate the markets and get your house noticed.   I’m not, frankly, just talking about calling the Realtor who sold the house up the street.  I’m talking about calling a high caliber professional who knows what it takes and can really give your house the attention that it needs.   People like Greg and Teri and Jeff are examples of the types of Realtors who have the knowledge and talent to help you navigate through this market and make wise decisions.

4. Any interest rate that starts with a 6 is a good number. Check out the attached chart.   From 1971 to 1998, we did not see any mortgage rates that started with a 6.   Frankly, we’ve gotten spoiled in Read more

What’s better than a hokey faux-video photo-based virtual tour? How about a FREE hokey faux-video photo-based virtual tour?

One of the factors that unites the vendors who annoy me is that they tend to do things that are fast, cheap and obvious, then market them like manna from the heavens. Still worse is doing something fast, cheap and obvious as a hosted solution, charging start-up fees, per use fees and monthly hosting fees — which can turn into a boatload of money real fast.

The back side of doing things that are fast, cheap and obvious is that the product category quickly becomes a commodity, with the corresponding free fall in prices. The dipshit thing may not be worth having, but at least it doesn’t cost much.

Today the economy of abundance comes to Ken-Burns-style virtual tours. Documentarian Ken Burns and others perfected a style of cinematography that lends motion to still photos by panning across and zooming in on the images. This turns out to be a fast, cheap and obvious way to build cheesy little faux-video virtual tours.

The good news: These kinds of tours have always been pretty cheap.

The bad news: They’re video, even if there is no actual live motion, so they occupy huge amounts of disk space and consume big bunches of bandwidth.

The worse news: They suck. As with true video, they only work as virtual tours as the secondary tour, the back-up or the teaser. All virtual tour solutions suck, but the faux-video photo-based virtual tour sucks big time.

The purpose of a virtual tour is to get the viewer to commit to the home, and the only way to do that is by way of the commitment of time. Any real estate promotion that excuses the buyer after a minute or two — as all video solutions do — is sub-optimal. The ideal virtual tour will offer the buyer more and more tools to play with, more and more ways to “try on” the home.

All virtual tours suck to one degree or another, but the best of the breed right now is Obeo.com. You get the panoramas and the pro-photographer photos, the neighborhood information, all that stuff. But what you get with Obeo and no one Read more

There aren’t enough advertising dollars for Zillow.com to go IPO, but adding Google Street View makes the site a little more useful

So far, in 30 months since Zillow.com launched, precisely one client has shown me a Zestimate. I mention the site all the time, just as a matter of casual conversation, but only the INTx types know what the hell I’m talking about. Last night on the the phone with Brian Brady, I equated the Realty.bots with model trains: We fool around with these model train layouts because they’re interesting and fun — and then we get up and go back to our real jobs on the railroad.

That’s not completely fair. I’ve been using Zillow more and more in my own real estate practice, as one of my pre-listing tools. Because our current MLS system sucks so bad — it’s gone on July 28th — often I will go to Zillow first.

One thing I’ve wanted and missed at the site is Google’s Street View.

Guess what we’re getting today? That link is dead for now, but I’m not under any embargo, so here’s the news:

Even though it uses Microsoft’s satellite imagery, Zillow will also be adding Google’s Street View technology for exterior elevations of homes and views of the streets and surrounding areas.

The other bit of Zillow news this week was the announcement by Zillow.com CFO Spencer Rascoff that the start-up will not be going IPO in 2008.

The problem? All of Zillow’s services are built on an advertising-based revenue model, and it is struggling to sell enough ads.
 
“There’s an online advertising recession right now, and we are not immune,” said Rascoff. He did not show any signs of departing from the company’s advertising-based business model, or its eventual plans for an IPO.

Street View doesn’t seem to be turned on yet, as I write this. The IPO spigot may be turned off for quite a while.

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Dan Kennedy InfusionSoft Tour: Four Cities in Four Days

If you’re unfamiliar with Dan Kennedy, he’s often referred to as “The Millionaire Maker“.  He cut his teeth as a direct marketing copywriting guru in the 80s, attracted a lot of readers in the 90s, and has built an army of students, this decade, through his Glazer-Kennedy Insider Circle.  His “superconference” had Gene Simmons and Nido Qubein as headline speakers.

InfusionSoft is a CRM on steroids and is used by many of Dan Kennedy’s successful students (among others).  Infusion Software is sponsoring a FREE  “Day with Dan” tour:

Infusionsoft, the leading, fast-growing provider of unique, integrated online/offline marketing, follow-up marketing and customer/prospect relationship management — the only software system ever endorsed by Dan Kennedy, and the one running the Glazer-Kennedy Insider’s Circle business — is sponsoring this 4-city seminar tour as an appreciation gift to our users and, with limited seating*, to other invited guests for three simple reasons: (a) as a meaningful contribution to the community of entrepreneurs in a challenging and uncertain economy; (b) as publicity tour for Mr. Kennedy’s newest books; and (c) as a means of introducing you and other business owners to Infusionsoft. There will be a brief “introduction to the power of Infusionsoft to transform your business into an automated, efficient marketing machine” at the Seminar, however you are under no obligation to participate or accept the offers made. For more information about Infusionsoft in advance of the Seminar, you can visit www.infusionsoft.com. *While the Seminars are open to the public, advance registration is required and no at-the-door admissions without tickets can be permitted. Seating is limited and strictly controlled. Hotel locations will be provided only to confirmed registrants.

Anaheim/LA, CA – 8/5

Chicago, IL – 8/6

New York, NY – 8/7

Orlando, FL – 8/8

If you’re trying to learn some cool marketing ideas, you’ll enjoy one of these seminars.  Sean Purcell and I will be in Anaheim.  If you can’t make one of the seminars, you might view this free e-book called:

The Edge of Success: 9 Building Blocks to Double Your Sales.”

PS:  I have no dog in this hunt other than to hope a few of you enjoy the Read more

What’s the difference between BloodhoundBlog Unchained and a trade show like Inman Connect? Nothing but the chains…

In a comment to my Parliament of Whores post, Erion Shehaj asks:

I’m having a hard time differentiating between an event such as Connect and BHB Unchained[….] Is there any real difference between them charging for a conference and you doing the same?

Now that’s an excellent question.

Have you been to events like Inman Connect, StarPower or the NAR Convention? Are they charging you for a conference? You bet.

Is that their sole or even their primary objective? To the contrary.

A trade show exists to deliver you to its sponsors. The conference curriculum will consist of sponsored presentations, with the sponsors attempting to sell you their products. Are these the best tools for your business? No. The sponsors you hear from will be the highest bidders, and the hosting organization — Inman or StarPower or the NAR — will actively prevent anyone from pointing out that the sponsor’s products are inferior to others available. In other words, a trade show like Inman Connect, StarPower or the NAR Convention is nothing but a shillfest, a carnival for bilking dupes, who come there to be bilked on their own nickel.

I know you haven’t been to the one Unchained event we have had so far, but what we do is nothing like that. We had one sponsor, Zillow.com, which bought nothing but naming rights — practically speaking as a much-needed subsidy. No other sponsors, no sponsored presentations at all, no trade-show booths. The bulk of the program was Brian Brady and I teaching the theory and practice of Social Media Marketing. We interviewed a few vendors as a means of pinning them down and putting the screws to them. Everything about Unchained is contained in that one word: Achieving the greatest possible independence for the grunts on the ground.

You highlighted this text:

rather than strive to find new ways of milking Realtors and lenders of their income

Everything that Brian and I do is aimed at helping working Realtors and lenders hang on to every cent they earn. If you come to see us live, you’re going to pay. Electrons are almost free but atoms cost money to move Read more

Moral Hazard….

Barry Ritholz at The Big Picture had these two comics that brought to the forefront again the issue of moral hazard. Check out the comics and then we’ll talk “on the other side.”

This is going to get expensive.....

Carry the World on our Shoulders

Okay, now some thoughts about moral hazard:

The definition of moral hazard (as taken from that scholarly journal, Wikipedia):

Moral hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would behave if it were fully exposed to the risk. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.

Let’s break that down and look at it a little more closely in light of the current market environment:

a party insulated from risk may behave differently…. What that means is that, frankly, the people on Wall Street and the bankers on Main St. (including yours truly) might very well have done things differently over the last few years if we had been more fully exposed to the risk. Will Fannie or Freddie buy it? That’s all that most mortgage lenders really cared about when structuring a loan. On Wall Street, the guys (I’m using that term in a gender neutral sense, okay?) who packaged these loans up and sold them as securities didn’t really care how they performed, all they cared about was the great big fat commissions that they made. The rating agencies didn’t care about whether they really told the truth about these mortgage backed securities, all they cared about was getting the big fat commission checks.

And so what do we have now? We have, between Wachovia and Washington Mutual, $10.1 billion in loan loss provisions in the last 12 hours. That’s for a period of 90 days folks. I was going to figure out the cost per day but my calculator doesn’t crunch numbers that big!

Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear Read more