There’s always something to howl about.

Month: September 2008 (page 4 of 7)

Alex, I’ll Take “Irony” for $600

The government is now in the mortgage business and the insurance business.  I am sure others will expound on the AIG debacle and all of its implications in due course.  I just wanted to point out the something that should make me laugh so hard it brings a tear to me eye… instead it just brings the tear.

Just before each financial giant goes down, there is a final blow.  One last lynchpin pulled that leads to the immediate cessation of breath for a company: the ratings agencies lower the company’s credit rating.  Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, etc. take a look at the mortgage based assets the company is carrying, look at the write downs still to come and make an assessment on the credit worthiness of that company.  Once their rating drops they cannot borrow money at a cost that allows them to remain solvent and “a-begging they will go.”

Now that is the job of the ratings agencies and I do not begrudge them their responsibility.  Here’s the funny part though.  The failing, mortgage-based assets that are crushing these financial companies (and now an insurance company) were originally purchased, to a large degree, based on the credit worthiness assigned them by… wait for it… wait for it… these self-same ratings agencies!  Imagine the hubris of being so, so wrong in their primary mission of evaluating the creditworthiness of an investment vehicle, then lowering their evaluation of the creditworthiness of those companies that purchased the very investment vehicles they failed to correctly evaluate!  Talk about having your bread buttered on both sides. I know there is a great joke in there somewhere.  I am just too terrified to find it.

Welcome to the other side of the looking glass.

Life as a big, unchained hound in a big, unchained world…

I don’t give a rat’s ass about traffic, but I care a great deal about being as big as we are.

It looks like those new Technorati numbers are going to hold, and that particular screenshot sings to me. We’re not as big as the real estate porn blogs or the bubble blogs or the investor blogs, but we are far and away the biggest of the category I call the RE.net, the real estate industry weblogs.

My delight is not a matter of traffic or links, that’s just so much shoes on the carpet. What matters to me is not where we are but, rather, how we got here.

In email today a friend of BloodhoundBlog said:

I love it that you’ve done this, but I love it most because you’ve done it without the Twitterati, despite people making public pronouncements that they are boycotting BHB, by bowing to no one, by keeping your own counsel.

And that’s exactly right. I don’t care if nobody is listening, so long as we’re doing this work our way.

But consider: Hardly anybody bothers me, these days, with bad advice on what and how to write or how to manage this weblog, but this used to be a common thing. But we are what we are despite all that bad advice.

I know there are a certain number of people reading here — even if they have insisted publicly that they don’t — who don’t understand what we are doing at all. There are a small few who understand all too well — and it drives them completely crazy. Another small few get it and love it and catch every delightful little nuance of the theater of the thing. But the ninety-and-nine — and I never forget the ninety-and-nine — are here for their own reasons, and a healthy self-interest is the perfect expression of the unchained ideal.

I know that you are confronted all the time with what I consider to be horribly bad advice — kiss up, kiss ass, bend, yield, compromise, to get along you’ve got to go along. Of all the many things we can do Read more

No sharks allowed! The predictable consequences of government regulation of the financial markets

I wrote this for No Treason in July of 2002:

This morning’s New York Times has a curious piece on Alan Greenspan’s recent denunciation of greed.

The article consists of a series of quotations from Ayn Rand and from Greenspan in the days when he was incontestably in the Randian camp. On Usenet I wrote:

Well, I had wondered when someone here was going to remark upon Greenspan’s denunciation of greed, but I thought the article itself was very good. I expect the Times thought that merely quoting those texts was damning enough, but I thought they were nice selections. It would have been nice to point out that these events are the consequence not of capitalism but of our fascist mixed-economy, of Orren Boyle, not Hank Rearden, but I think the Times may have done its own cause more harm than good.

But wait. There’s more. The Times quotes Rand as saying “I make mincemeat out of the kind of businessman … that runs to government for assistance, subsidies, legislation and regulation.” Precisely what kind of corporate executive — not businessman — do they think has committed these awful crimes?

Does the New York Times think that the securities market, the sine qua non of these scandals, is free?

A year or two ago, conservatives were rejoicing that half or more of Americans were now ‘capitalists’, owners of the means of production, either directly or through retirement plans or mutual funds. Now that the New York Times is lamenting the sad fates of these — call them by their right names: Indiscriminate, uninformed, degenerate gamblers — is anyone happy to have the nation’s capital in the hands of such cry-babies?

Does the New York Times honestly believe that ordinary people should own securities? Does the New York Times believe that anyone who would gamble his retirement savings on the most volatile of stock issues should be pitied for suffering the predictable consequences of what Greenspan calls “infectious greed”?

Back when he was young and admirable, Alan Greenspan wrote that going off the gold-standard “put a penny in the fuse-box” of the American economy. Actually, the old and tired Read more

The Last 36 hours…

Please indulge me with a personal post.

The last 36 hours has been awesome. I am in Nanaimo, BC Canada for the Real Estate Webmasters conference. The last 36 hours is my definition of how life should be lived.

Beautiful surroundings.

Nanaimo (and British Columbia in general) is among the most beautiful places I have been. Words cannot do justice to the 2 hour ferry ride that I got to take yesterday. They just can’t. If you get the chance to visit this gorgeous part of the world, PLEASE do yourself a favor and make sure you do. It is amazing.

Amazing Friends.
I got to have dinner last night with about 15 friends. I try not to use the word friend loosely, and I certainly am not here. Morgan Carey (thank you for being a tremendous host. Seriously.). People like Dennis Pease and his lovely wife. Judy Orr, who I have moderated with and yet never met (until now). Knox. Drew. Tim. Tom. Mike Brown. Dave A. Jon Karlen. I am exhausted, and I know I am leaving a few out. (Lack of sleep is an excellent sign of a great last 36 hours!!)

These people aren’t just people. They are like family. Names and Avatars start connecting into an even deeper bunch of relationships that is just plain FUN. More of that will happen today and tomorrow.

This is not networking for me. It is connecting with people that I have known for 3 years online online but finally get to meet. That is what makes this last 36 hours special for me. I wish folks like Ryan and Wayne and Bramlett were here to experience it with me.

One quick point. It is about the relationships. I did not come to Nanaimo for the latest whizbang SEO secret. (A lot of those discussions ARE happening naturally, mind you! And no doubt that is a NICE side benefit!) BUT…I came for the relationships. If you take care of those, your web presence tends to take care of itsself. I am not being flippant. It is the truth.


And of course Cosmic Bowling.

This is one of Read more

Leveraged Loser Loans Lead To Loss of Liquidity

I’m kicking this one up to the top, in honor of today’s events.  It’s a historical look about the early MBS markets.  Now before you jump me for my incorrect conclusion, I didn’t realize that the hedge funds leveraged their loan holdings 10 to 1 (or more).  That “38 bucks a month” translates to a loss of about 6%.  In hindsight, with full knowledge of the leverage employed, I’d  have thought that your “IRA” would lose half its value.

Enjoy!

BAD LOANS: Buried In The Back Of The BreadBox

Let me tell you a story about how the subprime mortgage market collapsed and millions of baby boomers had to accept less money in retirement. If you liked the Da Vinci Code, you’re gonna love this one. It’s not wrapped up in sex, or murder, or corruption, just good-old fashioned “pass the buck” and “what the little guy doesn’t know won’t hurt him” attitudes.

WARNING: If you are prone to believe conspiracy theories, you are going to curse, kick the cat, and be extremely pissed off after you finish reading this.

Here is the dirty little secret of the mortgage securitization boom of the last 5-10 years: The little guy gets stung with the losses.

First, a little history lesson. It’s kind of boring but stick with me here. Mortgage backed securities (MBS) were originally the old Ginnie Mae pass-through certificates. The VA or FHA packaged up their loans and sold them through Wall Street to little old ladies who wanted to “juice up the yield” on their portfolio. They were safe because they were backed by a government agency. They yielded more than treasuries because they were a conglomeration of various mortgages. The money was loaned at, oh… 14% (remember the early 80’s ?) and the investors received, say…12%. It was a good deal because the little old lady could only get 9% on Certificates of Deposit. The difference was spread among loan servicers, Wall Street, and even the gub-a-mint agency by employing this securitization tactic.

The problem was that loan principal was returned, along with the interest, on the old Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Little old ladies Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio: Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program

Our guest on Bloodhound Blog Radio, this week, was Ronda Green, area manager with the Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program.

Listen to the full episode here.

We opened up the program announcing that we can be found on iTunes as “Radio Mortgage” .  All episodes will be available here, on Bloodhound Blog Radio.  We discussed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing and the Bank of America/ Merrill Lynch merger.  After our brief commentary, we introduced Ronda who discussed the political battle seller-contributed, down payment assistance programs face.  Assuming a successful reintroduction , we had Ronda walk through the process of the program.  Ronda asked folks to support the program by writing their Senators at www.DPAgroundswell.org

Our stated purpose of Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog Radio is to educate REALTORs about mortgage programs and offer marketing ideas to them.  The Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program offers benefits to both listing and selling agents.  We suggest that REALTORS visit www.GetDownPayment.com to find free marketing pieces (and ideas) for both buyers’ agents and listing agents.

The call was attended by about 8-10 agents including William Johnson, Carole Cohen, Marlene Bridges, and Bill Collins.  Oh, the BawldGuy snuck in to announce that he has a listing in San Diego and was looking for unique ways to market it.  Successful agents, attending Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog, is proof positive that you’re never too smart to learn something.

Visit www.RadioMortgage.net for next Monday’s schedule.

Listen to the full episode here.

Tom Johnson reports on hurricane clean-up efforts in Houston

Our good friend Tom Johnson in Houston by email:

Minor house damage to report, nothing that lets the weather in. We are one of about ten homes with power in our neighborhood (100homes). We were on the clean side of the storm, about 80 miles away from the hard hit part of Houston. We are very fortunate.

Watch the clean-up of the 4th largest US city. I have a feeling it will astound. The false alarm from Rita gave public officials around here a dress rehearsal on how to screw up, and I think they have a pretty good handle on what is required. There have been some FEMA issues but it was kind of funny. Yesterday FEMA informed the State that they weren’t able to move the relief commodities from Reliant Stadium to the Points of Distribution. The state, probably correctly, is focused on the coast and was unable to shift the National Guard to the PoDs. The Mayor and County Comm. just told the State to get out of the way. Apparently they had established some kind of volunteer corps for this type of eventuality. The state handed off permission to talk to FEMA to local authorities, and once the local to FEMA direct billing was verified with Chertoff, the trucks were rolling to the PoDs last night. They are fully stocked this AM and have restocking in place so there will be very little running out. The logistics of the relief effort are fascinating to me. It is totally devastating to a citizen to sit in line for what will be hours in the early days to be told we just ran out, so, keeping the supplies coming is as important as the initial relief effort.

All taxpayer paid workers were expected to be at work today. As the mayor said: This is going to be the largest garbage pick up in history.

I’ll have more as it processes.

I expect the Houston Red Cross would be happy to hear from you.

Programs for the Pessimist

The latest news regarding Lehman and Merrill are not surprising.  Still, expecting an impending disaster and enduring a disaster are not the same thing.  For some, a pessimistic leaning may take hold and for you… I have great news.

In a recent article in the San Diego Union Tribune by syndicated writer Lew Sichelman, we learn about a growing business in refinance lending: the cash out, no interest, no payment, no loan… loan.   That’s right.  There are investment companies out there right now loaning cash against the equity in your home.  There is no interest rate and no payments because it is not a loan.  The company simply gets to share in any equity gain you experience between the time you receive the money and when you sell the home.

There are restrictions, including a kind of pre-pay penalty.  You can not sell the home for an agreed to time period (usually at least five years).  But there is also freedom: no restrictions on how you use the money.  The investment company shares in your appreciation and your depreciation.  Of course, if your home goes up substantially, the cost of the money you received can be exorbitant.  But you get use of frozen assets right now, which can be pretty handy.

Here’s the marketing gem in all of this: There are plenty of clients and prospects on the sideline right now, desperately wishing they could get in the game.  This is one of the best buying cycles I have personally ever seen.  The problem: they are house rich and cash poor.  Here is a solution and it does not add to their monthly budget or future debt-to-income calculations.  Show them how to get that “dead” money out their home and into an income producing property.

HIGHLIGHT: If you think housing is in trouble and things are not going to get better for some time, you can take your equity out now at a cost of: nothing.  When you do eventually sell you will still have to pay back the original amount but you will have gained no equity and so the “loan” will have been Read more

So what does this mean to the real estate markets and real estate professionals?

Since I’ve already had almost a dozen e-mails, phone calls and tweets asking me, “So how does the financial meltdown on Wall Street impact me as a Realtor?”   I thought I’d take a few minutes this morning and throw out some observations and thoughts of what it might look like.

Before I do, let me remind you that we are in what could truly be called a historical (in a negative sense) event and therefore any prognostications are exactly that and it’s going to be interesting to see.   But here’s what I see as some potential ramifications for the real estate markets:

1. Mortgage rates – due to the increased “danger” and perceived lack of safety in the stock markets, I think we’re going to see a major “flight to quality” as people pull money out of stock and into bonds.   And, because Fannie and Freddie are now owned by the government, we could see a pretty nice drop in mortgage rates because of it.  I also believe that rates will drop because (see #3) of the anti-inflationary pressures.

2. Non-agency loans – by Agency, I mean anything that is bought by Fannie, Freddie, FHA and VA.  I believe that the death of Lehman and the forced sale of Merrill (as in, sell or die) are going to be, in many ways, the death knell (for the time being) for non-agency loans.   If a bank can’t sell it on the secondary market (and the only secondary market that’s left is Fannie, Freddie, FHA and VA), then they won’t do it or it’s going to be very expensive.   Now, there will be small exceptions to that where you have small community banks who are willing to do some creative portfolio stuff, but that’s going to be the exception rather than the rule.

3. Cash is king in the financial world – we’re going to see a tightening of credit in all forms of lending where it is being done with the bank’s own money.   Commercial loans, equity lines, car loans etc. are going to be harder to get and more expensive.   This will have a negative Read more

If You Are A Home Builder – You Have A Problem

Cost Of Building Materials Likely To Rise Due To Hurricane Ike

Builders of new homes have been dealing with sluggish sales from lack of buyer demand, and with the potential of nearly $20 billion in damage due to Hurricane Ike – the cost of building materials could easily make a bad situation much worse.

Builders have not seen a reduction in material prices in spite of the slowing of construction over the last two years, due in part to reconstruction of the damage from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. While some material costs have gone down, most have not – and this latest giant hurricane striking a major population center is undoubtedly going to push material costs up.

In the last year, spikes in the price oil have not only driven up the cost of many materials – it has also driven up the cost of subcontract labor for which builders rely. As energy costs go up – so do the manufacturing and transportation costs associated with the materials builders need.

To make it a trifecta, the number of recently-built home foreclosures is at an all-time high – thus giving new construction some serious competition, as home buyers can find some very nice, nearly new homes for much less than most new construction.

When you bring all of these factors to bear, you can rest assured that new home builders are in for some rough waters ahead. Rising costs will raise their “break-even” point, thus making their efforts less profitable without a retail price increase – which the current market will not bear. Since profitability is already impossible for many builders – more of them are likely to fail.

“It ain’t over ’til it’s over,” Yogi Berra once said. Once again, Yogi is right.

Fannie and Freddie fall to foreclosure, but, still, lenders lend

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Fannie and Freddie fall to foreclosure, but, still, lenders lend

I write this column at the beginning of the week, and it appears at the end of the week. My topics are usually timeless, but, if I turn my attention to current events, there’s always the chance that I’ll end up with my foot in my mouth.

Even so, the news that matters most in residential real estate this week is the takeover by the federal government of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FannieMae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FreddieMac). These two quasi-private corporations define the lion’s share of the secondary mortgage market in the United States.

What does that mean? If you got a conforming loan for your home, it will have been sold into the secondary mortgage market in short order. FannieMae or FreddieMac would have guaranteed the loan to investors, this so your lender could have had a renewed supply of capital from which to make new loans. Federal Housing Authority and Veterans’ Administration loans would have been guaranteed by those entities, and sub-prime (non-conforming) loans would have been marketed directly to private investors. The secondary mortgage market exists to keep loan originators liquid in a market where very few people keep their savings in banks.

Given the federal takeover, has the sky fallen on the secondary mortgage market? No, although things may be a little sluggish as the newly-installed management teams learn the ropes. But as San Diego real estate broker Jeff Brown says, “Lenders lend.” There are still plenty of dollars chasing mortgages, so there will be mortgages chasing dollars. It’s plausible that interest rates could even go down, now that the secondary mortgage market has a rich Uncle Sam to back its loans.

What is not so plausible is the notion that investors will suddenly abandon housing altogether. Things will shake out. The ideal situation would be for a new free-market clearinghouse for the secondary mortgage market to arise. A business like that could cherry-pick the strongest loans, those least likely to go into foreclosure, leaving Read more

A Bloodhound’s arrogance stumblin’ on the heart of Saturday night

Cross your fingers, Cathy may have brought home a $600,000 listing today. As my contribution to our household finances, I lassoed a $50,000 prize of my own. Mine will be fun for the whole family though: We’re going to discuss it here as a unique marketing problem. Why unique? It’s a vacant lot with a structure on it. It’s a tear-down that can’t be torn down. It’s a certified antiquity with no discernible historic value. In short: It’s a challenge.

Why did I take the listing? Because I’m committed to the idea that marketing real estate is not fundamentally different from marketing anything else. I believe I can target-market this outrageously anomalous property and get it sold. I think this will be a fun exercise, a chance to explore radically different ideas about selling real property.

I linked today to a post I wrote more than a year ago. Like this post, it has that strangely disorganized cohesion of a weblog entry — part essay, part letter to a beloved friend — but I think it’s one of the best things I’ve ever written here. I reread it today, and Teri tells us in a comment that she did, too.

Here’s the best of it:

A Bloodhound’s virtues are genetic accidents, but that doesn’t make them less than perfectly admirable, whether evidenced in the dog or anthropomorphized and expressed in thoroughly conscious human behavior. Brought up right, a Bloodhound is a natural alpha, regal and indomitable. The dog will move with a lanky, un-self-conscious arrogance that is simply heart-breakingly beautiful to look upon: This what a thriving organism looks like.

I am steadfastly, philosophically opposed to the idea of humility. I think it is one of many evil ideas foisted off on us by malefactors who love us best at our absolute worst. To say to me, “You’re arrogant,” or, “you have a big ego,” is no reproach. On the one hand, it is a statement of obvious fact. But on the other, it puts me on my guard against you. A healthy, normal human being moves and acts and thinks and speaks with the lanky Read more

Some Days It’s Not Worth Chewing Through the Restraints

In addition to our discussions here at Bloodhound, if you’ve been reading the blogs lately, the commission debate continues.  Jonathan Dalton’s post on Agent Genius has recently spawned a long series of comments regarding how agents are compensated.

One comment (below) got me thinking,

“… I fully believe that my service is worth 6%. Clients in my area seem to be less concerned with getting a “deal” on their commission rate than they are with getting an EXPERT to work for them.”

I am not questioning the agent’s value – it’s hard to debate that consumers want an expert. The issue I have with the comment is “I fully believe my service is worth 6%.”

Why?

What is the significance of 6%?  As we discuss the issue of commissions, why are we stuck on a percentage of the sale? Why isn’t the number 10% or higher – or in some cases, lower? 

In actuality, if you’re cooperating with a buyer’s agent, aren’t you really saying you’re really worth only 3%?

Indulge me for a moment as I share a little story…

In early winter 2007, I happened to represent a client in the sale of his 3-flat in Lakeview – highly desirable area north of Lincoln Park – the building generated solid rental income. I listed the property and generated 2 offers within the first 20 days on the market. The first deal fell apart due to an over-zealous inspector who told my clients the building was worth no more than land value,

Pardon me, but you’re an inspector, not an appraiser.

But that was the least of my problems …

The second deal blew apart 3 days prior to closing. The zoning certificate was incorrect – issued by the city. Chicago stated that that building was a 5-flat. My client was thrilled – LOOK! We can now ask for more! Um – excuse me, but no. When he purchased the building 2 years prior, the city correctly issued a zoning certificate indicating that the building was in fact a legal 3-flat.

The attorney and I discussed Read more

It’s The Weekend, Right? Time For Another Deal.

Lehman Brothers has been shopping their firm.  Here’s Paul Muolo, who co-authored a book I’m reading, Chain of Blame, with OC Register’s Matt Padilla:

THIS JUST IN: It could be a busy Sunday again at the Treasury Department in Washington. Lehman Brothers (and Aurora Loan Services) may be sold in a deal brokered by the government. The rumor mill was working overtime dishing out speculation on Merrill Lynch, whose share price was sinking to a new 52-week low. There was also talk the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was contemplating the takeover of two depositories. Stay tuned…

Hank Paulson works weekends.

Lehman Brothers is one of the most treasured names on Wall Street.  Its roots go back to before the Civil War, when they operated as cotton traders and established the Cotton Exchange in New York.  They financed Sears, Woolworth’s, and Macy’s, at the turn of the century.  They had a large hand in financing the growth that defined the 20th Century as “The American Century”, providing capital for the movie, television, aerospace, and information services industries.

One more venerable investment banking firm becomes a casualty of the credit meltdown.

Listing real estate the Bloodhound way: Working like a dog to achieve specific marketing objectives

Teri Lussier:

My other question: Good ideas and bad ideas. This bites me in the butt over and over. My brain is great at generating ideas, not so great at knowing what makes an idea great. Something new or different is not always better (I need to have that tattooed on the inside of my eyelids). The million dollar question: How do you know?

The way we work is to think backward from the marketing objective: What event or outcome do we want to have happened? “Sell the house!” is a lot to tear off in one mouthful, but how about, “What can we do to get visitors to sit down and ‘try the house on’ in their minds?” That’s where the coffee table book came from.

I wrote the original version of our sign philosophy before I created our first yard sign. That sign was very different from the signs we make now, but that paragraph of small text was there from the very beginning. I knew that if a yard sign was actually going to work to sell the house, I had to get people to stop their cars, and that paragraph of text has been doing that one little job ever since.

This is all Richard Riccelli again, thinking in terms of direct response marketing. The big yes to the house is an accumulation of smaller yeses to particular marketing tactics, so the most effective marketing efforts will consist of taking away the negatives — eliminating the deal-killers. Who can you turn to for that kind of marketing advice? Your buyers. When you show, again and again your buyers will teach you what’s not working in other listers’ houses. Learn from your buyers and eliminate the turn-offs from your own listings.

That’s important. People will read the things I write and decide that I’m talking about tricks or gimmicks or tactics. I’m not. I’m talking about a complete home-marketing strategy, and each individual element of that strategy is expected to fulfill a particular strategic objective. But our strategy starts with four obvious tactics that are omitted in at least 90% of the homes Read more