BloodhoundBlog

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Appreciation Is A Luxury – Invest Accordingly

Here’s an example, using real properties recently purchased by real clients. I’m gonna modify some of the numbers, but the modifications will not in any way make the bottom line better by an inch. (Worse in fact.)

What if you paid $245,000 apiece for four properties, each with an annual gross scheduled income of $28,800. The renters sign year long leases, and tend to stay a little longer than two years. We’ll set the operating expenses and vacancies at just under 40% — $10,950 a year. This results, when using currently available loans, in a negligible cash flow of less than $250 monthly — essentially a break even.

The down payment used will be 20%, though I’ll use 22% for any return figures. In these transactions you’ll be credited up to 2% of the sales price for your closing costs. The first year’s cash flow will be just under $3,000 or so for each property. We’ll assume any increases in expenses will serve to cancel out any rent increases. The loans are fixed rate, amortizing over 30 years, with a 6.5% interest rate.

If in five years the value is still $245,000 — what will you have gained? Of course, you didn’t invest to find yourself in a non-appreciating asset. Since your crystal ball is in the shop, we’ll just consider it your time in Murphy’s barrel. 🙂

So, what will you have gained in this scenario?

  • Income tax savings of around $7,500 a year, or $37,600 over 5 years
  • After tax cash flow of almost $12,000 annually, or $59,800 over 5 years
  • Principal reduction of just over $50,000 over 5 year holding period
  • It took about $54,000 +/- to close each of the four purchases, meaning you’ve invested a total of $216,000. In 5 years without values increasing, here’s what happened.

    Add up your 5 year total for tax savings — $37,600. Your after tax cash flow for the same period is a couple hundred less than $60,000. What that means to you is simple. Your Levi’s garnered just under $20,000 ($19,520) annually in spendable cash. That’s an after tax cash on cash return of roughly Read more

    Don’t Mess with The Google

    So back in October I launched a Google Local account for The Chetson Firm. This is an account that links your business to Google Maps and allows you to post information such as your hours, location, parking, etc. I posted some images, a link to a video I had created, etc.

    I shot to the top of Google local rankings for keywords in Raleigh. I’m certain that was responsible for multiple thousands in business. Life was good. I tweaked the listing a few more times, it kept performing well.

    Then at the end of November, I tweaked it again, this time stuffing a few more keywords into the listing. Google “flagged” the listing. Overnight it disappeared from the local search results displayed by Google maps. This was a disaster. I had difficulty undoing my mistake. Where I was in the top 7 for two months, now I was nowhere to be found. (I still perform well on Google’s organic search words, so business didn’t dry up completely. In fact, December was a strong month.)

    Since Google Local has no easy way to report problems, I went into Google’s local business forums, where I found lots of people in similar circumstances. Their ads were displaying fine, until the end of November when Google did something that affected them.

    Fortunately on the strength of other marketing – some direct mail I do to DWI defendants and the fact that my organic google results are strong – I’ve continued to pull in business, but I would guess I’ve lost about $10,000 in business because of this mistake.

    I’m on the way to repairing the damage, and Google is expected to refresh its results after the New Year’s. But this illustrated for me two aspects of the same phenomenon in marketing and the online world.

    1. Don’t put all your marketing in one basket.

    2. Google really is a market maker in many respects for many different kinds of businesses.

    I’m now looking for other ways to “diversify” my marketing. Fortunately there’s Bing and other emerging avenues. Unfortunately Google, as much as I generally like their products (Wave being an exception), is still Read more

    Anyone think that Fannie and Freddie are “out of the woods?”

    Then check out this chart marking delinquencies at Fannie Mae.  

    Calculated Risk: Fannie Mae: Delinquencies Increase Sharply in October

    Fannie Mae reported today that the rate of serious delinquencies – at least 90 days behind – for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 4.98% in October, up from 4.72% in September – and up from 1.89% in October 2008.

    ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas

    and all through the country, people were paying more attention to Christmas than they were to the government and to the financial mess that is making our country struggle.

    So what did the Treasury do?   They did two things:

    • They expanded the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from $200 Billion each (that’s $200,000,000,000) to an unlimited amount of funding.   In other words, the US Treasury just handed their checkbook to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
    • They did it on the day when no one was watching and they did it 9 days before it would have required congressional approval.

    How nice and how timely.

    Nothing to see here, move along, move along……

    Tom Vanderwell

    Heard on the Street: Fannie and Freddie – WSJ.com

    That was a nice holiday gift to taxpayers.

    As expected, the Treasury on Christmas Eve increased the amount of money it can plow into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to keep them solvent. Before, the U.S. had pledged up to $200 billion to each. Now, over the next three years, the Treasury can spend as much as is needed to prevent their net worth going negative. Such a change would have required congressional consent after Dec. 31. Given that each U.S. household had effectively committed $3,800 to both firms, the Treasury should have waited till the New Year so the people’s representatives could have had their say.

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    What’s wrong with California? Nothing anyone left in the state has the fortitude to fix. What’s the Golden State’s future? Ask Detroit.

    From a lengthy diagnosis of everything that is wrong with California from The Claremont Institute:

    Three of California’s last four governors, and six of its last nine, have been Republicans. The politicians who secured those victories immediately found it necessary to cooperate with a dominant opposition party; California is, in every other respect, a state that has been becoming more Democratic for as long as its oldest residents have been eligible to vote. California has not given its electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, or been represented in the U.S. Senate by a Republican since 1992. Of the 53 Californians in the U.S. House of Representatives, 34 are Democrats. In the past half-century, each of the two chambers of the state legislature has seen a Republican majority—once. The GOP’s state senate majority endured for two years, the one in the lower house for less than a single year.

    The evidence is incontestable: the liberal strategy of waiting for the public’s anger to subside is far sounder than the conservative strategy of hoping it will gather strength. The liberal calculation rests on a shrewd assessment, not only of human psychology but also of modern mobility. California is not yet East Germany, which means that one of the ways Californians who are mad as hell can decide not to take it any more is by moving away. The Census Bureau shows that California, the state that used to be a magnet, has experienced negative "net domestic migration" since 1990. Between 1990 and 2007 some 3.4 million more Americans moved from California to one of the other 49 states than moved to California from another state.

    States don’t conduct exit interviews, so there’s no way to tell how many ex-Californians left paradise because the taxes were too high, the public services too shoddy, and the unions too overbearing. Whatever the tally, one problem for conservatism in California is that the conservative critique of the state’s governance argues as strongly for flight as it does for fight. It is possible to advocate a national policy agenda by invoking patriotism, but "state-riotism" is a far weaker Read more

    Interest rates have been trending upward, but what happens when Uncle Sugar quadruples the sugar supply at Fannie and Freddie?

    From the Wall Street Journal:

    The Obama administration’s decision to cover an unlimited amount of losses at the mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the next three years stirred controversy over the holiday.

    The Treasury announced Thursday it was removing the caps that limited the amount of available capital to the companies to $200 billion each.

    Unlimited access to bailout funds through 2012 was “necessary for preserving the continued strength and stability of the mortgage market,” the Treasury said. Fannie and Freddie purchase or guarantee most U.S. home mortgages and have run up huge losses stemming from the worst wave of defaults since the 1930s.

    “The timing of this executive order giving Fannie and Freddie a blank check is no coincidence,” said Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee. He said the Christmas Eve announcement was designed “to prevent the general public from taking note.”

    Treasury officials couldn’t be reached for comment Friday.

    So far, Treasury has provided $60 billion of capital to Fannie and $51 billion to Freddie. Mahesh Swaminathan, a senior mortgage analyst at Credit Suisse in New York, said he didn’t believe Fannie and Freddie would need more than $200 billion apiece from the Treasury. But he and other analysts have said the market would find a larger commitment from the Treasury reassuring.

    What’s your take? Are we looking at another two years of 30-year fixed mortgages under 5%?

    Howling for the hard-working dogs: “We interrupt this Christmas Season for the following brief commercial transactions.”

    Rich full day today, lots of variety. Working Christmas Eve with me were home inspector Mike Elsberry (two houses), wood inspector Joe Letourneau (two houses) and our handyman, Mark Deermer (one house). We had a plumber working at one of our listings, as well. I could tell by the (lack of) traffic on the streets that a lot of people took the day off, but I am delighted that so many of the people that I work with were working today.

    I’m going to work quite a bit tomorrow, Christmas Day. Mail, of course. But I’m also going to service a listing and take a look at half-a-dozen vacant REOs. Nothing terribly time-consuming, more like errands than anything else. But it’s work I want and need to get done, and I don’t want to put it off.

    I think this is all part of the revolution incited by these devices — alike unto the idea that privacy is an artifact of inefficiency. I don’t take time off as a binary state event, and it kind of drives me crazy when other people do.

    I think it’s insane that too much of the commercial world comes to a complete standstill on special days. But at least we are not insane enough to be consistent. No one preaching the virtue of sacred pretend-poverty wants for the power plant or the hospital emergency room to shut down from now until the Feast of the Epiphany.

    Even so, it is simultaneously plausible to me that I might have something to prove: I’m going to celebrate my Christmas, and I am not going to interrupt anyone else’s. But I can do valuable work for my clients tomorrow, and it is important to me to get it done. And, at a minimum, my clients will be ahead of the game and my workload Saturday will be lighter. Everybody wins.

    But here’s the thing: I think you’re going to work tomorrow, too, even it’s only to deal with your client email. And I think this is something to be celebrated, not condemned. We work in the pursuit of happiness, as Jefferson had it Read more

    My car is not a real estate office. In 2010, my car is going to become a wi-fi-enabled mobile real property exchange and conference room.

    This is the car we bought for me in July. It’s a used Kia Rondo, a semi-unassuming wannabe minivan that I have denominated with this demanding appellation: Prometheus.

    My favorite god, as you might have guessed, from all of human history. Prometheus, you will recall, stole the fire of the gods from Zeus and gave it to the people. An alternate reading of the Greek cites Prometheus as having borne the gift of mind to humanity, a rendering of the tale I like even better. If you are a life-sucking real estate broker or any other functionary of the life-sucking National Association of Realtors, the memes that move me will tell you a lot about my long-term plans for you.

    But: Sometimes a minivan is just a minivan. I chose the Rondo because a client of mine rented one when he was in town, and I realized it was the perfect real estate car. I had looked at more expensive so-called “crossover” vehicles, but we have practiced and perfected the art of being cheap bastards. At ten grand out the door, the Rondo seemed like the optimax choice.

    And this has it proved to be. I’m in it a lot, and it is a very comfortable roaming office for me. I don’t know how other Realtors deal with all the lengthy phone calls that go into selling real estate, but I take down a whole bunch of them from my car. I can make anywhere from one to five calls between stops, and if I were not doing those calls from behind the wheel, I wouldn’t be doing them at all.

    But wait. There’s more. I bought the Rondo because I knew I would be doing more and more real office work from the car. The vehicle has three cigar lighters, and I have 300 watt 110 volt power inverters plugged into two of them. That is to say, two three-prong outlets in the front seat and two more in the back. I could be working on my laptop, an assistant on another and a client on a third, all of us plugged in to Read more

    Why Being a Real Estate Agent Is Like Being a BaseBall Umpire

    Ever umped a baseball game at any level? It’s a rush. You haven’t lived ’till some stud has winged a 95 mph fastball your way. It literally takes a couple of ’em before your brain adjusts to the velocity. First one I saw? Told the hitter and catcher it sounded good to me as my right arm went up signaling a strike. True story. Most umpires never get past youth ball, even fewer to high school, and only a trickle get the experience NCAA baseball offers.

    There’s a cliché in baseball that says when the game’s over and you really didn’t notice much about the umpires, they did an excellent job. As is true with most clichés that’s a pretty accurate statement. In fact, the only reason folks should notice umps is if they’re able to do their job with a little flare, a little passion — but it’s not required or even necessary. Just deliver the goods.

    Same goes for real estate agents. Just as the excitement is in the ball game itself, the excitement for your clients is moving into their new home — possibly after movin’ outa their old one. Our job is making sure the excitement happens the way it’s supposed to.

    One of my favorite memories on the diamond was a day I was to ump the plate in a junior college game in a pretty highly talented league. JC’s don’t get four umps, just two. As you might imagine, with only two men, hustle and seamless, preordained teamwork is a must, not a luxury. There’s simply no room for anything short of that when you’re part of a two man team umpiring at the college level — even junior college. Anywho, in the second inning, my partner became ill, and had to leave.

    Me ‘n You, Lord.

    As luck would have it, things remain more or less quiet. I’m runnin’ around like crazy, but it’s doable. Before we resume the game, I call both head coaches to the plate for a quick powwow. I tell them in no uncertain terms I’ll be in no mood for Read more

    From the Files of Captain Obvious: Five Fundamental Real Estate Business Truths

    I. am. not. BawldGuy. And I don’t play one on this, or any other blog. Okay, now we’ve got that (not-so) deep dark secret out into the open… If you are approaching BawldGuy status, God Bless You, and keep on truckin’ and you go girl! You can move along, because this is for those of us who are working on real estate at the ground floor level.

    I’ve been given the gift of time in 2009 and looking back and looking ahead, I see some obvious truths about the real estate business. Some of these are based on mistakes I’ve made, but as long as we learn from them, I’m okay with sharing.

    Truth #5: I like twitter. I don’t like facebook. But who cares? Without a goaldriven plan to use either for a very specific reason, then I’m wasting time on both, and I’ve wasted time so you don’t have to. Use them to chat, or use them to market, or use them to sell, but understand the difference and if you are going to use them for business, have a plan and follow the plan. Don’t get sidetracked, and do stay focused. If you are a lender or a vendor then you might want to network with real estate agents, but if you are an agent, then stop talking water cooler and find people who can tell you to go to hell.

    Truth #4: You don’t need social media to do a great job in real estate. You don’t need to  blog, or twitter. You don’t need to go to conferences. You can. You might learn a nugget or two, but it’s entirely unnecessary to your success, and it just as likely will be a huge waste of your time and energy.

    Truth #3: To be successful in real estate, you need to meet as many people as possible. Lucky us, people are everywhere, and we can find them through any means- the method is really unimportant to getting to close. What’s Read more

    Need Big Bear Bloodhound for a Listing

    A couple I am fairly close to, both personally and as fellow investors, are going to sell their second home in Big Bear.  I can proudly say their expectations have been raised and they are well versed in the Bloodhound way.  If you are – or know of – an agent in that area who leads the pack in marketing and listing activities based on the great foundation of “WHY,”  I have a listing for you.

    DS Drops A WP Spider Bomb…

    Looks like DSIdxpress,a wordpress idx plugin that allows indexaspiderability of mls listings, is in beta.

    Neat stuff. I really like DS. Enjoyed tapping their feeds to autofeed content and game search engine results in my own practice late last year. Enjoy integrating their solution in client sites today. They’ll probably make a bunch of sales based on this innovation, which is cool. “You’ll have thousands of listings indexed on google” is a great pitch…

    Or at least it used to be?

    What I think this really means is that the days when IDX works as an effective lead capture tool are actually coming to a close. Spiderability doesn’t seem like it’ll be such a big deal anymore when everybody’s hip and got it implemented.

    Retechudamus says: As older school brokers scurry to grab the next “get rich quick” property search tool thats better than the guy’s down the street, the steady and sure content creators will continue to build a loyal fan base, poaching said brokers’ referral bases along the way.

    Either way, good shit DS, this is still a nice move and I look forward to playing once it’s ready!

    (Shit bomb inspired by Ken Brand, who’s dropping some eloquent “douchebags” and “bullshits” over at AG..)

    Real Estate Investing For Retirement – 2 Schools of Thought

    There surely are more than just a couple schools of thought when it comes to using real estate as a vehicle to get them to an abundant retirement. The two that almost always garner most of the attention are Buy & Hold for cash flow from Day 1, and Capital Growth First THEN a transition to cash flow upon anticipation of imminent retirement.

    Will either one get you there? Yep.

    The real question is — do you want your Social Security check to be used for groceries, or spending money? And yeah, I know, what SS check? 🙂

    Proponents of the Buy & Hold school are from the Old Old School. Don’t try to talk them outa their strategy. Show their results side by side with the Capital Growthers though, and they really get loud.

    I urge you to check out a comparison I’ve done over at my place. Caveat: It’s over 1,600 words of reading. It goes into clear detail. So far, folks who’ve read it, have been pleasantly surprised at how much solid info they understood and can now apply.

    If you’re a real estate investor, or wanna be one, this ‘case study’ is for you.

    Merry Christmas!