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December 8, 2009

Modifications are Failing…. (More on the Acronym Soup)

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

There’s a couple of interesting and yet disturbing points to this report from CNBC:

  • over 2/3rds of the people who are currently in the trial period of loan modifications are not going to qualify for the permanent modifications.   Why?   A couple of likely possibilities:  1) They are too far upside down and are looking at it and saying, “I’m out of here.”   2) They aren’t willing to provide documentation of what their financial position is because it would make it evident that they had lied on their loan application and that’s a federal offense last time I checked.
  • I had a past customer call me on Friday and said that he was never told that his short sale paperwork had an expiration date (which has now past).   He said it took too much work and he’s not going to do the paperwork again.    I didn’t ask him what his plan is from here, but I think it illustrates the pain and frustration that so many people are feeling in the process.   They just throw their hands up in the air and say, “I give up.”
  • If 2/3rds of the loan mods don’t go to permanent status, what do you think that’s going to do to the number of foreclosures?   Yeah, that’s right, it’s going to increase them.

The entire way that the banking industry is handling foreclosures, short sales and loan modifications isn’t designed to encourage participation (or perhaps mandate participation?)   Until we get an organized and systematic way to deal with the facts that:

  1. We have many people who took out loans that they never had a chance of paying on time.
  2. We have many people who took out loans that are worth way more than their houses are.
  3. We have many people who took out responsible loans and have had bad things happen to them and now aren’t able to make their payments.

All three of these require different responses and a different way to effectively resolve the challenges that we’re facing.

If you ask me, the government and the banking industry haven’t figured out the way to deal with them that really works yet.

Tom Vanderwell

P.S. You’re probably Read more

December 7, 2009

What’s in a name? That Which We Call a “Job” Summit, by Any Other Name…

by

Real Estate Renaissance Man

Author website

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.”

Through The Looking Glass – Chapter VI

Lewis Carroll

Small business accounts for over 65% of all new jobs.  If you wanted to create new jobs (I mean, if that was your actual goal and not just a cover story) you might decide to sit down with people who represent small business interests.  The guest list for an actual, according to Hoyle, “Job Summit” then, might look like this:

  • The Chamber of Commerce
  • The National Federation of Independent Business
  • The National Association of Manufactures
  • and so on…

If, on the other hand, your actual goal was to consolidate power and become the de facto benefactor of jobs, you might want to sit down with the people who kill small business on a regular basis.  To keep things simple, you should probably limit yourself to those with whom you are already sleeping.  The guest list might look like this:

  • The Service Employees International Union (S.E.I.U.)
  • The American Federation of Teachers
  • The United Steel Workers Union
  • Policy wonks with absolutely no real world business experience
  • And of course, Paul Krugman (an economist/columnist so far to the left he can’t ever be right)

Which list do you think showed up for the White House “Job” Summit?

To paraphrase Lewis Carroll (and, quite possibly, President Obama?):
“It is a job summit damn it! It is because I say it is.  The question is, which is to be master: you… or me.  That is all.”

December 4, 2009

A first look at the Panasonic Lumix ZR1 as a real estate camera

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

Just a real quick look at the Panasonic Lumix ZR1, in use with the dogs this week as a real estate camera. When I get time, I’ll do some side-by-side comparisons. This is just a quick look at some photos and a demo movie.

First some pix:

These are good, nice and wide, nice and bright. No distortion on the straight lines. A little bit of lens flare, but this ain’t Life magazine.

Here’s a huge benefit: Even with the flash on, the ZR1 is fast. Refresh time is maybe two seconds, essentially no delay at all. The auto-focus/auto-exposure systems need a little time to do their calculations, so it’s possible to rush the camera. But a wide lens has a huge depth of focus, so it’s hard to get into real trouble.

The movie is not so pleasing. The wide lens is great, but the AF/AE issue is much more serious on-the-fly. I don’t like house videos, anyway, but, if you plan to do them with the ZR1, you need to make sure you have a lot of light.

Here’s the video as recompressed by YouTube:

Not great. The original is better. You can see it by clicking “Play in Popup” in the links at the bottom of the post.

My one complaint with the camera, so far, is that it’s so tiny. I have big hands, so it’s taking some getting used to. But it’s wicked easy to get a lot of very good photos very quickly. And the 25mm lens is very, very wide for a point-and-shoot camera.

Further thoughts when I’ve had more time to play.

December 4, 2009

Embarrassing Confessions & Marketing Memory

by

Real Estate Renaissance Man

Author website

Two quick confessions:

I can’t throw a baseball.
I’m pretty sure I just scared a potential client away.

I used to be able to throw a baseball.  I played little league and pony league with some success.  There weren’t any pro scouts putting radar guns on me or anything, but I played right up until high school and I was regularly elected to the all-star team.  (Although looking back, it probably helped that I was much bigger than all the other kids and threatened to show them my Bruce-Lee-super-fist-of-temporary-death if they didn’t vote for me…  Nah, I’m sure it was my prowess inside the foul lines.)

Anyway, in high school I discovered my true calling: shot-put.  After that, I didn’t have occasion to pick up another baseball until my boys started playing just a year or two ago.  That’s when I discovered that I now had all the throwing grace and accuracy of a little girl.  You see, by my estimate I probably threw the shot – over the course of my competitive career – 15-20,000 times.  That pretty much wiped out any skill I ever had for throwing a baseball.  On the other hand, it created a near perfect shot-put technique that I can still demonstrate even now… as I enter my peak “mid 40s” athletic years.  (These are a lot like my peak “mid 20s” athletic years, only everything is now done while carrying around the extra weight of a small child.  It’s actually quite impressive if you think about it…)  Think about it or not, I can still summon dynamic and purposeful form because of a powerful adaptation called muscle memory.

Earlier this week, as I was parking my truck,  I noticed a car stopped in the middle of the street.  The driver was craning her neck to jot down information from an agent’s For Sale sign.  She then pulled up two houses and stopped again to take down information from another agent’s For Sale sign.  By this time I was walking down the sidewalk; I veered in toward the middle of the street and approached her on the drivers’ side.  “Hi,” I Read more

December 3, 2009

A Disaster for Democrats? Yeah, but what about the rest?

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

This is just ugly…..

Let me attempt to explain.   Goldman Sachs came out with their economic forecast.   Here’s a brief summary of it:

  • Mediocre growth until late 2011.
  • Unemployment peaking at 10 3/4 in the middle of 2011.
  • Extremely low inflation through 2011
  • Low interest rates through 2011 (at least the ones the Fed controls.)

So, what does this mean for the housing and mortgage markets?   The following list of predictions are made under the assumption that Goldman is right.    If they are, I think the housing market is going to see:

  • Continued growth in the number of foreclosed homes.
  • Continued downward pressure on house prices.
  • Continued delinquency problems at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.
  • Continued tightening of underwriting guidelines for mortgages.
  • Continued situations where the interest rate isn’t the problem, it’s property values and qualifying for the loan that’s the problem.

In addition to that, a couple of other things we could see:

  • Growing political unrest and dissatisfaction with the current state of the government and those who run it.
  • An opportunity for a massive restructuring of the political landscape, starting in 2010 and continuing to the 2012 election.
  • Growing resentment against the financial institutions on Wall St. and elsewhere that have had a big part in this mess.
  • Substantial regulatory changes that will either lower the regulatory and tax burden on consumers and businesses and create the type of growth that we need or will stifle all initiative and all opportunities for us to pull out of this any time soon.   We’ll either go Reagan or we’ll go Atlas Shrugged.   I vote for Reagan.

It’s going to be bumpy and it’s going to be wild, but it’s definitely going to be a ride to remember……

Tom Vanderwell

James Pethokoukis » Blog Archive » Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems | Blogs |

The key features of our 2011 outlook: (1) a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011; (2) a peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10¾%; (3) extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during Read more

December 3, 2009

2010 Big Broker Market Domination Action Plan

by

Retechulous...

Author website

Here below is my take on a possible action plan for any mid to large sized real estate brokerage that would like to increase local market share by drastically enhancing its brand visibility and recruiting more agents to its team.

At the core of this plan is the creation of a company standard “Agent Lead Generation Package.”

The thinking here is that as the brokerage works to serve (and mandate) the lead generation efforts of its agents, it’ll concurrently establish it’s standing as the most omnipresent, technically progressive, office in its market area.

Broker Market Domination Action Plan

  • Establish a wide multi-author, wordpress based blogsite designed to serve as the cornerstone of your overall lead generation system. This site will double as a regional web based “newspaper” of sorts and will likely have eventual value as such. Key components of this site should include a video gallery page, idx integration, an evolvoing google map and individual agent pages that stream agent created content and feature unique lead capture offers for each agent.
  • Establish Company Social Media Profiles – A Facebook page, Twitter account, and Youtube account. Set them each to automatically interact with the main site, with new content being syndicated and shared between all components. Any content posted to the main site will land on Facebook and Twitter, with links calling eyeballs there back to the main site. Any videos uploaded to Youtube will land on the video gallery page and if properly titled and tagged in Youtube they should provide a stream of traffic for years to come.
  • Establish a Content Creation Schedule for Each Member of the Team. Make it a company mandate that everyone must contribute to the site on a regular basis. This includes ownership, management, administrative staff, and all agent partners. Assign each team member a themed piece of content that they are responsible for on a weekly basis. Figure out a way to punish those who don’t comply, and to reward those who do. Example – You could charge each agent who doesn’t contribute content a $50 penalty that will be used to hire Read more
December 3, 2009

1 Full Percentage Point? That would leave a mark…..

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, this Mr. Sack guy is the guy who manages the Fed’s day to day dealing with the financial markets.   Here’s what he had to say about rates yesterday:

  • 10 year Treasuries were .50% lower than they would have been without the program.
  • Mortgage rates would be 1% higher if it weren’t for the Fed’s purchase of mortgage backed securities.

The only questions that I see coming from this are:

  • Will those differences automatically reverse themselves when the program stops?   It’s not necessarily a given that they will unwind immediately when the buying by the Fed stops.
  • How long will it take for those positions to unwind?   Will rates climb over 30 days?  6 months?  12 to 18 months?
  • If you are contemplating either refinancing or purchasing relatively soon, why haven’t you done something yet?   Take a look at the list of Bloodhounds on the right side and call any of the lenders on the list or call your favorite local guy, but don’t wait too long.   The window of opportunity is going to be closing some time soon and probably sooner than we all think.

Stay Tuned……

Tom Vanderwell

The Fed’s Market’s Guy Eyes Asset Sales and Rate Increases – Real Time Economics – WSJ

Mr. Sack is a key voice on the Fed’s expanding balance sheet, because he manages most of the central bank’s interactions with financial markets and thus many of its asset purchase and money lending programs……

Mr. Sack’s group estimates that the Fed’s purchases of $300 billion in long-term Treasury securities earlier this year helped to push yields on 10-year Treasury notes down by about half a percentage point……

Some critics have argued that the Treasury purchases didn’t have the intended impact of pushing rates down.
But Mr. Sack – a long-time proponent of such purchases – said his estimate is supported by regression analyses by the Fed.

Purchases of mortgage backed securities, he says, pushed those rates down by a full percentage point.

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December 2, 2009

I can’t tell you how disgusted this makes me….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

It’s another example of people in the mortgage and real estate world who took advantage of someone who didn’t understand the system.   And they aren’t the ones who paid the price, the borrower is…..

We’ll be better off when all of those types who are motivated soley by profit have been run out of the business.

Tom Vanderwell

Calculated Risk: WaPo: A Liar Loan Example

From Donna St. George at the WaPo: The $698,000 mistake

[A]ll of this began in the heady days of the mortgage boom … [Ms. White] only knew that there seemed to be possibilities, even to those with little means such as herself, which is how a woman who had never paid more than $700 a month in rent and who had relied in recent years on Section 8 housing vouchers suddenly owned a house.

A four-bedroom house.

With 3 1/2 bathrooms. And walk-in closets, black granite countertops and a fireplace.

You can already tell how this story will end.

On settlement day, reality bore down.
…
Papers were read and presented, most of which White did not try to decipher. … White’s papers cited income of $163,320 a year, even though she says her 2005 income-tax earnings were less than $15,000 and she relied at times on food stamps.
…
White signed papers while waiting for the one she cared most about: her monthly payment. … “Please let this be something I can afford,” she said to herself. She was pretty sure she could afford $2,000. She told herself that if her day-care business did well, perhaps she could afford $2,500. If it was $2,800, she would struggle. Here, now, came reality: $5,635 a month.

To get White to sign, the sellers – who were real estate agents – agreed to make the first two mortgage payments for Ms. White. According to the article, White received $40,000 in cash out at closing – and the seller made over $200,000 on the house. Naturally it went into foreclosure Read more

December 2, 2009

It’s going to get harder to get an FHA loan……

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

We’ll get more details later today, but it looks like it’s going to get harder and be more expensive to get an FHA loan.   A couple of main points to consider:

  • FHA is currently losing money by the truckloads, so something has to change.
  • The increased FICO scores, larger downpayments and reduced seller concessions will probably weed out a few people, but not that many.
  • It will make it more expensive to buy a house FHA.
  • At first glance, the part about scrutiny of the lenders seems like it really wouldn’t affect borrowers, right?   Wrong, here’s why.   If FHA becomes more demanding in terms of their buy back provisions with lenders, guess what, lenders are going to be looking at absolutely every little detail on the loans to make sure that they comply with the guidelines.    Your borrower needs to have 12 months on the same job and he’s only at 11.5 months?  Sorry, wait two weeks.    The paystubs are dated 31 days before application and we need 30 – sorry, got to get another one.    The bank statement, well, you get the picture.

I’m working on a post outlining the details of what Fannie is doing next week Saturday with their new guidelines.   Fun times…..

Tom Vanderwell

FHA to Toughen Mortgage Rules in Lenders Crackdown – Real Estate * US * News * Story – CNBC.com

Amid rising foreclosures and falling home prices, the Federal Housing Administration is proposing new rules to crack down on lenders and asking Congress for the authority to raise certain borrower requirements, all in an effort to reduce risk to its $685 billion mortgage portfolio.

While FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in an interview on CNBC following that release that the FHA would not need additional federal funding to meet its loan losses, he added that FHA will be looking for new ways to reduce risk.

Those steps will include raising minimum borrower FICO scores, requiring larger down payments, and reducing the maximum permissible seller concession from six percent currently to three percent.

It could also include raising up-front and/or annual insurance premiums, which would require Congressional authority. This is according to the testimony HUD Read more

December 1, 2009

HAFA, HAMP and other assorted worthless acronyms….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

Okay, I’ve got to admit, it’s been one of those days, but I can’t stand by and not say what I’m thinking about this new “short sale” program.    I’m already hearing a lot of Realtors and others saying, “This is great news!”    Well, hold on a minute…..

I’m going to go through some of the main points of the HAMP Update that was issued yesterday and that our President spoke about today.    You can find the entire thing at Hamp Update if you want to read it for yourself.  If you want to read the entire directive, you can find that at Directive.   The bold and italicized portions are quotes from the official documents.   The regular print is my thoughts…….

Supplemental Directive 09-09 provides guidance to servicers
There’s the first clue that something’s not going to go well.   It provides guidance. 

The definition of guidance according to Wikipedia is: Advice (opinion), an opinion or recommendation offered as a guide to action, conduct. 

See where the problem is?   It’s guidance, it’s not mandatory.   So, Uncle Sam can say, “Now, Mr. Banker, you really should do this……”    And the Banker can say, “(Well, we really shouldn’t print that.)”

provides servicers with the option to determine the extent to which short sales or deeds-in-lieu will be offered under this program.  (This is actually from the Directive).    

It provides options.   It allows the servicer to determine the extent to which they offer them under this program.

So, once again, what do we have?   We have Uncle Sam saying, “Now, Mr. Banker, it would be really nice if you did this……”   And the Banker can say, “____________________.”

The effective date of this Supplemental Directive is April 5, 2010.
Excuse me, but what the heck is the rush for?   I mean, they rolled out the HASP refi program to lenders the day that they made it public to consumers so we were getting calls on it before we even knew what was what.    Now they are giving the banks four months to decide whether they want to participate?    Why not next Monday?

With either the HAFA short sale or DIL, the servicer may not Read more

December 1, 2009

The Next Step….

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

I’ve had a lot of people ask me lately, “Tom, what do you see is coming next?   What’s the next step in this mess?”

A couple of thoughts at this point:

  • Anyone short of Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, Meredith Whitney and maybe a few others who tell you that they KNOW how this is all going to end is lying.   (Did you notice how I didn’t include Treasury Secretary Geithner or anyone in Washington in that list?)
  • But there are some people who have the ability to peer a little farther out into the fog than most do.
  • Anyone who tells you this isn’t a confusing and potentially scary time is lying to you as well.   Never in our life times have we seen the kind of financial devastation and economic pain that is currently happening.   

The things that are going on are causing lots of people to question a lot of things that they weren’t questioning before.   Things like: 

  1. Will I be able to retire?  
  2. Can I ever trust a mortgage lender again?  
  3. Will real estate still be a good investment?  
  4. What’s happening in the stock market?  
  5. Is my financial advisor telling me the whole story?  
  6. What are mortgage rates going to do? 
  7. How does the actions of the Federal Reserve impact the financial markets? 
  8. What are the long and the short term ramifications of the deficits that the government is currently running?
  9. How does the value of the dollar impact real estate and mortgages?

Those are just a smattering of the types of questions that I’ve been hearing from people lately.   Okay, some of them aren’t quite in the format that I spelled them out but they have basically been asking that.  Frankly, I think the consumer’s desire to ask more questions is a good thing and a healthy thing in the long run.

So where am I going with this?   I’m getting to it…….

I’ve been fortunate to “hook up” with two of the experts in other areas of the financial spectrum (one of whom is our own Jeff Brown) and we’re setting up a new source for financial and real estate market insight and understanding.   As Read more

November 30, 2009

The System is Broke? Humpty Dumpty

by

Mortgage Officer

Author website

I’m just quoting the conclusion of the article that was up on Calculated Risk over the weekend.  It was about a lot of the technical aspects of mortgage servicing and the way that mortgages are sold and bundled.    A couple of main comments and then read the conclusion below:

  • Many of the problems in the mortgage world are because of the way that the mortgage world is structured.   That means that it is going to take systematic and structural changes to get us back to a system that really works.
  • When there is a lack of accountability, things won’t work the way they are planned.
  • Do you think that this lack of accountability and lack of responsibility is part of the reason why short sales and foreclosures are so hard to get approved?   There is no incentive for the servicer to make the decisions that need to be made.

Check it out below…..

Tom Vanderwell

Calculated Risk: Thanksgiving Weekend Mortgage Litigation Roundup

In other words, as many of you suspected all along, “hoocoodanode?” was officially part of the plan for creating mortgage backed securities. Systematic and willful ignorance was incentivized. If Wall Street created a system where each bogus mortgage passed through the hands of a couple of intermediaries who had no ability to do any due diligence on the quality of the loan, then the end buyer of the loan would, legally speaking, be in a better position to collect than the original lender by virtue of BFP status. Did the mortgage broker tell the borrower the loan was fixed rate when it really wasn’t? Oh well, no way the mortgage pool trustee could have known about that after the loan passed through the hands of an originating lender, an unrelated depositor and a legally separate issuer.

Whether for better or for worse, this system is pretty clearly not playing out as intended. BFP status does nothing to protect lenders from broke borrowers and half price houses, both of which were foreseen by knowledgeable people who were not willfully ignorant of details about loan origination. And even the limited protection of BFP status may not be available in Read more

November 30, 2009

When Is It Best To Begin the Day’s Cat Skinnin’?

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

Regardless of what many of us prefer to believe, our day to day effectiveness has much to do with when our days begin and end. Yeah, yeah, I know, Captain Obvious etc. With one eight month exception, when it’s been my choice, I’ve not been an early riser. Ever notice that those who wake up later and stay up past midnight don’t pester the livin’ crap out of you about the merits of their choice? Don’t feel like gettin’ in a word edgewise for awhile? Ask anyone with a rooster fetish about the merits espoused by their dawn worshiping cult, and you may remain silent for the duration.

My theory has always been grounded in the empirical. As long as you’re not showin’ up for work late, then leavin’ early to make up for it, your 8-12 hours a day are still 8-12 hours a day. Kinda profound, don’t ya think? Still, the early morning crowers piously insist their hours are more productive than those beginning and ending later. They utter those words framed in a tone dripping with the unspoken accusation of ‘slacker’!

Is the listing you just took, or the loan you just closed worth any more or less based upon when you get up and go to bed? Apparently so to many.

I wanted to find out first hand. If one of our country’s most respected forefathers gave the idea legs enough to last for over a couple centuries, what was the harm?

Made a deal with myself to rise at 6 AM for the entire month of November. It’s been an eye opener, as I’ve learned Ben Franklin was full of what comes out of the south end of a northbound bull. Well, maybe not totally. I am gettin’ more done by 9 due to all the obvious reasons provided by being up and more or less not comatose before the #$%&^in’ sun is up. My waking hours haven’t really changed much though, which is counterintuitive to what all the lying bastards have been tellin’ us for centuries.

My kingdom for somebody to rationally explain the difference Read more

November 30, 2009

The Social Media curve

by

The Real Estate Group, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake VA

Author website

if Arthur Laffer can have a curve for taxes that defies the static revenue generation models in use at the time and since, then I can have one for social media. (Hat tip to my friend Scott Hack at Selling Greater Louisville for starting me down this road…)

socialmediainbusiness

The true reach and impact of a given social media aite has a lifecycle. A site starts as an ineffective blob and the sites promoters must somehow inspire a LOT of people to waste a LOT of time building it up. **cough**Twitter**cough** As they do it gains traction, but unless it hits “critical mass”, a point at which it is a household word and EVERYONE is using it and will not stop using it, then it will decline. **cough**Myspace**cough**

For business purposes, since we are trying to maximize our ROI, my thought is that we only should spend time on those social media sites with enough RELEVANT traffic to warrant us spending our time on them. (Right now that is likely ONLY to be Facebook and then only where we can connect with our friends from the past effeciently and possibly get deals from them.

Twitter, for all of its rabid followers is now IN MY OPINION in decline.

**Eric ducks a tomato and few folks from NAR who are just now learning to spell the words “social media” (grin)**

How do I know? The aforementioned Scott Hack told me last week that he was noticing that more and more twitterers are doing less and less tweets. He is an avid twitterer. So I took it upon my self to do my own marketing research over Thanksgiving.

Of the many people in their 20s and 30s that I talked to, who were on Twitter, most (75%) planned on spending less time there in the coming year.Interesting to note that they STILL INTEND TO USE FACEBOOK.

So then I went to the younger crowd (read: Nephews and nieces) Are they getting on Twitter? No, No and no…why? Because they have become comfortable with the Facebook platform.

When I talk to the 35 to 45 year old crowd, they Read more

November 29, 2009

Where’s that inflation?

by

Raleigh Criminal Lawyer

Author website

I’ve been saying for a year now that inflation is down the road. I had predicted that we’d start seeing the first signs of it by the end of 2009. And I had said, in anticipation of inflation, the Fed would start raising interest rates, in order to draw out all the money it and the rest of what the federal government has pumped into the economy since the fall of 2008.

But… there’s no apparent inflation yet. The CPI – however accurate that is – has increased at between .2 and .4 percent in July, August, and September.

As a result, the Fed has contented itself with keeping interest rates low. But this can’t last forever can it?

Where’s the inflation? Someone smarter than I please chime in.

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