BloodhoundBlog

There’s always something to howl about.

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Vook dead yet? Doesn’t matter. If you want to sell blades, first you have to find stubble that people are willing to pay to have shaved.

This was in my email this morning, spam from LinkedIn.com:

Joel Burslem is no longer Director of Product Development at Vook

Means what, I don’t know. Deck chairs on the Titanic. There is no huge surging mass of sub-literates demanding even easier-reading access to the half-shouted profundities of Gary Vaynerchuk. Love him or hate him, the guys lives and dies in video. He cannot be caged by a page, no matter how stylish or expensive or electronic that page might be. The book is a dead letter, so how could the Vook not be an even-deader letter? You cannot even pretend to believe otherwise unless you are in the pay of Brad Inman.

But: None of that matters. The Vook is instructive because it teaches us a host of interesting lessons about how to fail in business. Big names. Big funding. Design budget. Attractive product that works. Fancy offices filled with bigfoot corporate types. Even Aeron chairs, I’ll bet. What could go wrong?

Only this: There is no market for the product.

Remember that “find a need and fulfill it” bit from Business 101?

Can you name even one person who has confided to you, “You know, I’d probably read more if books were more like television?”

“I’d sure like to read more books, but the books I want to read are interrupted at intervals by bad actors enacting bad scripts.”

“What I want from books requires a sub-woofer!”

That’s a disaster from day one, and I have been ridiculing the Vook since first I heard about it. But even now, I can see an actual use for this technology: How-To books: How to build a rocking chair in 24 easy steps or The Kama Sutra for Klutzes. Those could sell, because they answer a need that can be served by both text and video. Even then, though, they’d be better as web sites — easier to control, easier to revise, etc.

But let’s go back to the Vook’s original marketing problem and try to solve it in a better way.

Brad Inman is a choke-point dinosaur. His goal was to come up with a “blade” dispenser — a relatively cheap razor Read more

Voters discover a cure for Obamania?

I actually feel kind of bad for the should-have-known-better folks who voted for Obama. It was obvious to me last fall that he was a false-flag candidate, a stone liberal masquerading as a centrist. And I understand that, for true stone liberals, he’s actually been somewhat of a disappointment. But for people who can do math, their misplaced faith in Obama has to sting twice, once for having been so dreadfully wrong, and once again because snarky assholes like me just won’t let it slide.

But here’s the good news, from my point of view: Last night’s results may have the immediate impact of putting the brakes on all this tax-and-spend stupidity. The larger stupidities will endure, of course, but we just might have gotten ourselves shut of the home-buyer’s tax-credit last night. Surely this is an event worth celebrating.

This is Instanpundit.com’s Glenn Reynolds in today’s New York Post:

But [Obama] was right the first time about not being ready for the Oval Office. As president, he seems confused and a bit distant on the issues, leaving the details to congressional Democrats and an ever-growing number of “czars” while he golfs and launches attacks at Rush Limbaugh and Fox News.

With the economy tanking (unemployment is much worse after Obama’s deficit-swelling stimulus than Obama’s advisers predicted it would be with no stimulus at all), with the promised post-partisanship dissolving into witch-hunts against hostile media and the promised post-racial America devolving into the awkwardly staged “beer summit,” with the “necessary war” in Afghanistan the subject of endless dithering and the promised “smart diplomacy” materializing as a series of awkward missteps by Hillary Clinton, the froth has become a lot less frothy.

Republicans, who were prepared to give Obama the benefit of the doubt a year ago, now can’t stand him. Independents who voted for him are deserting in droves. And Democrats don’t seem that happy either.

The good news for Obama is that he doesn’t have to run for re-election for three more years, so he still has a chance to get his feet under him. But for Congress members facing elections in a year — including Read more

CIT + FED = BK

A few months back, as part of a Tin Foil Hat Production, I mentioned CIT’s desperate need for funds and the Fed’s decision not to bail them out. Why is this noteworthy? After all, I don’t believe the Fed should bail anybody out.  I cheer wildly to see Ford record surprising profits while competing against the Frankenstein creation that is GM, just as I quietly root for GM’s justified demise.  But here we are, with CIT declaring bankruptcy and the hypocrisy is just too much.   Apparently, a company focused on financing small business (70% of the entire factoring business!) is not worth a bail out from the administration that claims to look for ways to spur Small Business.  Color me cynical, but I think CIT’s main problem was a lack of Goldman-Sach’s alumni on its board…

“The net effect of government intrusions in the real estate market is to create a standing wave of foreclosures amid steadily-declining home values”

This from my Arizona Republic real estate column:

As I write this, the entire real estate industry is on tenterhooks, waiting to see if the $8,000 first-time home-buyers tax credit is going to be extended.

It’s not really a tax credit, it’s a taxpayer-funded subsidy, a “gift” extracted by force from everyone who does not buy a house under the program. The money taken from taxpayers — either now or later by deficit spending — is money that cannot be spent or invested elsewhere.

And it’s not as though this were a zero-sum game. The actual marginal sales — the home sales that would not have happened without the subsidy — may have cost taxpayers from $40,000 to $75,000 each. And as huge as those numbers are, they ignore the interest cost of the borrowed money, the opportunity costs of mal-investment and the compound interest value of those opportunity costs.

Government action cannot create wealth. At best, it moves wealth around. At worst, government destroys wealth by taking it away from the very people who have new ideas and new technologies to invest in.

But as bad as this tax credit is, it’s only temporary. Someday it will end. The mortgage interest tax deduction — which almost no home-owners actually get — is forever. The government dominance of the secondary mortgage market — FannieMae, FreddieMac, GinnieMae, etc. — is forever.

And here’s the real kick in the head, given all we’ve been through in the real estate market over the last eight years: The National Association of Realtors reports that 59% of all new home loans this year were underwritten by the Federal Housing Authority, the Veterans Administration or the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

What this means is that a huge number of homes will have been sold this year with down-payments ranging from 3.5% to -5%. Six out of ten new mortgages are essentially nothing-down loans.

The U.S. government wants to buy your vote by making home-ownership easy. But the net effect of government intrusions in the real estate market is to create a standing wave of foreclosures amid steadily-declining home values.

 
Steal this book: I’ve written over 200 Read more

Business as Politics? No way.

I don’t know where I am on the political spectrum.  I don’t think it’s particularly important.  But I know that if I took Robert Worthington’s approach to my business, I would be out of a job.  People come to me with problems.  I try to help them resolve their problems within the set of rules.  They pay me.  End of story.

What I think about those rules when I lay my head down at night is quite distinct from how I earn a living.

Whether you’re a lawyer or a real estate agent, a lender or a widget maker, you add value to the world by solving other people’s problems: keeping them out of jail, finding them a home, helping them finance a purchase, or selling them some widgets.

How you conduct your business – how you treat people and honor your commitments – matters.

What you think about whether they take a tax credit, or borrowed from 2003-2006 at Fed subsidized mortgage rates, or have benefited for decades from the mortgage interest rate deduction does not matter.

And if you’re so concerned about an $8,000 tax credit that you’d turn away customers, I think, quite frankly, your priorities are confused.  There are some deep injustices in the world, and in this country.  An $8,000 giveaway, however stupid or smart a policy that may be, is not one of them.

With help like this…

Robert Worthington is right.  Do you want to know how right he is?  According to Goldman Sachs, who ought to know about government intervention, the feds interventions into the housing have pushed home prices 5% higher on a national average than they would have been otherwise, Goldman Sachs estimates in a report released late Friday.

The government over the past year has slowed the pace of foreclosures through moratoria and the drive to modify mortgage terms to keep more borrowers in their homes. It also has pumped up demand for housing by giving tax credits to many first-time home buyers and by driving down mortgage interest rates. As a result, home prices in some areas have risen in recent months, particularly for homes that appeal to investors and first-time buyers. Bidding wars for the more attractive bank-owned homes have become common.

But these artificial props won’t last forever and may have created a false bottom in the market. “The risk of renewed home-price declines remains significant,” Goldman economist Alec Phillips writes in the report, “and our working assumption is a further 5% to 10% decline by mid-2010.” – WSJ

If they’re right, rather than a healthy market heading into 2011, what do you think we might actually have?  We could be looking at falling home prices, rising interest rates and a government whose currency is faltering.  Does it sound like a double dip?  Will you be happy that the functions of the market were tampered with once you realize the misery has been extended, for years? Remember to say thanks to the NAR, thanks to the NAHB, thanks to the Feds and most of all, thanks to us realtors who supported the larceny.  But, at least you may have universal access to a health care waiting list.

Post-Opt Best Practices: Internet Marketing Meets

Really quickly. A lot of us have various opt in methods. Free books, blog comments, FB adds.

What are we doing with that noise? Hello.  Call them.

Objection #1 “But I Can’t Find A Numba”

OKAY, fine.  You can’t find a number.  Sergey and Eric made this little website, it’s a good starting point.  So is linkedIn.  So is Twitter.  Search your lists.  Search everything you do, and yeah, you can “find a numba.”

It’s not hard.

Some hints:  a lot of people are in the 90 and 9 in your fb list.

A lot of people are in linkedin.

A lot of people are attached to someone else.

Objection 2: But, Daddy, They’ll HAAAAAAAAAATE me.

Twice, maybe.  Twice I’ve called people and gotten some sort of jerk face.  Offense that I’d dare call them.  I call  about 15 people a day.  75 a week.  I have had a bunch of people I got no interest in, that’s for sure.   I have a bunch of people that I can’t stand…another given.   And a bunch of people that want the free stuff.  No sweat.

More often, I call people, decide that they are morons and don’t pursue anything.  With them.  I call, they’re not interesting….to me.  See, calling about 75 people a week gives me options.  I don’t need to chase every imbecile or get anxious about stuff.

…I don’t have any Boiler Room Jedi Mind Tricks.  I don’t even currently have a script.  I’m not that good…I step up to the plate and take my hacks.   And that’s enough to make me a living that has been six figures 9 out of 10 years 2006, friends was the bad, bad year  I know you all were laughing, but I was rocked hard by the IRS, my own ego, and a bunch of rental properties that were imbecilic.

Objection 3:  I shouldn’t have to sell.  I’m such a great blogger that they should come to me.

Okay fine.   Look, they did. They came, saw and commented.  They gave you love, they gave you some confidence.  Now pick up the phone, and close the deal.  They are BEGGING to give you their money.   Read more

Please do NOT extend the $8,000 tax credit

If you are on the far left, there is no need to read any further, for what I am going to say, is from a capitalist “conservative” mindset (which only means to left wingers that…I must be a hate monger for not wanting to extend the first time home buyer tax credit to those poor innocent people who can’t afford a home in the first place).

To extend the tax credit is simply going to increase the national debt load beyond what taxpayers can already afford to pay, yet weakening the economy even deeper.  Simply put I’m sick and tired of Realtor’s wanting the extension of the tax credit because it only benefits a few parties to a transaction instead of bettering the country.  We need to look at the big picture.  The fact is the tax credit must end at some point in time; that is a fact!  Realtors need to put their own personal interest aside and do what is best for this country, not themselves!  Extending the FREE money tax credit will only increase the pain of debt until the US dollar is worthless.  So the FACT is…Americans must be willing the do the tough thing!

What is the tough thing you might ask? well, for me,  I have refused to work with buyers looking for the tax credit!!! YES, you heard me correctly.  I know that if I am against the tax credit, then I must ACT as I believe.  I BELIEVE the government should not be handing out any of my money “tax payer money” to try and stimulate an economy that is FALSELY INFLATED in the first place.

How about this for a thought.  How about Americans need to live their WAGE so no tax credit is needed!  Here is my thought for the day.  WHAT IF, your home cost 125k instead of 300k?  what if you drove cars 10 years old with no car payments?  Could YOUR WIFE be a stay at home mother for her CHILDREN if this were the case?  Would the 10% unemployment rate drop to near zero if Americans lived their wage so Read more

If you want to do what you can to kill this pestilential home-buyers’ tax credit…

…today is probably the day to make contact with your state’s U.S. Senators.

(Incidentally, if you want for your political communications to have maximum force, you have to do more than write a check. You’ll get double the impact is you make a photocopy of your check — and then mail the photocopy to your candidate’s opponent. This should be very effective over the next two years in “purple” districts.)

A/B Testing Unleashes Creativity

One of the things that I truly dig about Ryan is his utter willingness to try anything.  Goofy?  Serious?  Whatever?  It’s all in play for him.  What keeps people on pages longer he’ll do.

I’m now free to do that.  I was constrained by subordinating everything to someone else’s “best practices.”  The Caples stuff, other people’s methods, best practices, and the Fortin stuff that you see working.  I am Japan.  Like Bawld Guy. Take ideas, appropriate…make ’em mine, lather rinse repeat, and knock out another 5 of my 10,000 hours.

No more need simply copy.  Enter A/B Testing.  You can create a loop that corrects itself.  By not having your ego involved, by subordinating EVERYTHING to effectiveness, you can try ANYTHING and see what’s what. Wanna see if pink hippos sell?  Go.

Blog Consultant Michael Martine pointed this killer video out, and for those of us using WordPress and a Theme of some type that allows page level layout changes (for color scheme and suchlike) this is the cool.

Now, I can do 2 things: see if pink hippos sell , and see what sells better than what else.

Questions I am going to address:

  • Does a highly produced video sell better or worse than a “Garage bandy” deal?
  • Does 16×9 kill 4×3 like I think it does?
  • Does asking for a sale work better than asking for an opt in?
  • Does asking for a sale AND an opt in lower the chances of either one happening?
  • Does leading or closing with testimonials work better?
  • Do testimonials work at all?
  • Should I have dense or sparse sidebars for the purpose of getting opts?

Heady stuff, and stuff that can let us run experiments to test it, and guard our marketing dollars.  This is an utter blast, if testing is part of what you do on a regular basis, you can constantly improve your marketing.

When you learn what people respond to in marketing…

…you can improve your salesmanship.

That’s why we do what we do.

How to do A/B Testing with WordPress from Carsonified on Vimeo.

7 Things Every Home Buyer Should Know – Part 2 – Don’t Worry

Time to take a look at the second installment in the 7 things series.   If you recall, last time, we looked at the fact that, in a rapidly changing market like we are, 6 months ago is ancient history.    What someone paid 6 months ago…… Well, just read about that at 7 Things – Part 1.

So what’s Part 2 about?   Here’s what I wrote last time:

2. Don’t worry so much about what you paid for your house. Instead, look at the difference between what you can expect to sell your house for and what it’s going to cost you to buy the new one that you want. I expect you’ll find that those are much more important numbers (unless you end up without any equity, in which case you don’t sell).

There are a couple of things that I think still hold true and one big thing that I think doesn’t hold true any more.    First the things that hold true:

  • If you are selling one home to buy another, the most important number is not what you paid for the existing home, the most important number is the difference between the two homes.   If the value of your home has fallen by $40,000 but you’re in a situation where you can buy a newer home with less maintenance and 1000 square foot bigger for a “net” difference of $20,000, then it might very well be a good deal.   
  • If your family situation has changed (i.e. – We got married and are expecting our second set of twins in the last 2 years! – Yikes!) then what you paid for your house doesn’t matter.   I’ve got a client who is negotiating on a house where the seller has to sell within the next three weeks but they are “hung up” on what they paid for the house.   If you need to do something, don’t worry about what you paid for your house, just focus on what the financial and logistical aspects and make the move.    I’m working with Read more

Estately – Running in the black. Congrats Galen.

I do not get around to as many blogs as I would like in the real estate space. (Seriously – I am busy with EricOnSearch and the brokerage), but it did not escape my notice that my friend and fellow dog, Galen Ward and Estately are running in the black.

EricOnSearch (my little teeny tiny enterprise) runs in the black. We celebrate others who do as well. Just like when I toasted Glenn Kelman and RedFin turning a profit, my hat is off to Estately. Good job guys!

In each of these cases, profitability has come from hard work, tough decisions and focused effort. That is how you stay out of a dot com bust or any other kind of bust for that matter.

Cheers!

The bad news: Tens of thousands of people, including IRS agents and including at least one four-year-old, fraudulently claimed the $8,000 first-time home-buyer’s tax credit. The good news? When these morons take over your health care, you’ll probably die before you suffer too terribly much…

From Politics Daily, the you-just-can’t-make-this-shit-up section:

Four-year-olds are adorable, trustworthy, and, having never owned a home before, fully eligible for the first-time homebuyer tax credit that Congress passed in 2008.

As a result of that loophole and numerous faulty reporting mechanisms, a House panel learned Thursday of tens of thousands of cases of fraud in the tax credit program, including more than 500 instances of people using their children — including a four-year-old — to apply for the credit to get around income caps and a requirement that the purchaser has never owned a home.

Together, fake or faulty claims for the $8,000 refundable tax credit may have cost the government up to half a billion dollars so far, investigators told the Ways and Means subcommittee.

Russell George, an inspector general with the Treasury Department, told the subcommittee about the most brazen instances of bogus claims that he had come across since the IRS created a filtering system last May to weed out suspicious applications.

George said he had found nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.

It is completely implausible to me that anyone could expect anything other than disaster from government-run anything. I like to say that governments are only good at one thing — killing people — but even that isn’t true of the U.S. government: The Army expends 20,000 rounds of ammunition for every confirmed kill. No worries, though:

This week Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) began a push to expand the credit to all homebuyers and extend the deadline, now set for Nov. 30th, to July 2010.

Good plan…

“See, the thing is, Don Corleone, I just want you to steal my competitor’s assets and give them to me. I don’t want for you to tell me what to do with them after you steal them for me. Capisce?”

Rotarian Socialism in action:

Google chief executive Eric Schmidt favors net neutrality, but only to a point: While the tech player wants to make sure that telecommunications giants don’t steer Internet traffic in a way that would favor some devices or services over others, he also believes that it would be a terrible idea for the government to involve itself as a regulator of the broader Internet.

The impulse is to say, “What a schmuck!” But once they’ve screwed up the internet, that will be one more once-free aspect of American life that will be enslaved forevermore.

Here’s a little rule of thumb to head off objections: If an allegedly-valuable social objective cannot be effected without force, it’s crime.