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If 90% of the Buyers Go Away Will 90% Of Realtors Go Away As Well?

Supply and Demand | AP Aol Poll says real estate is in trouble 

Nearly 90% of consumers recently polled say they are not interested in buying a home any time soon.  A joint poll of the Associated Press and AOL indicated that the recovery of the housing sector will not be any time soon if the retail American consumer has anything to say about it.

60% of those polled stated that they were DEFINITELY not going to buy a home anytime soon while just 0ver 10% said they would be looking to purchase a new home in the near future.

You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to see that there is a tremendous amount of inventory available for a very slim and decreasing demand. If supply and demand ideology is true, then it is safe to say that there are going to be an overwhelmingly increasing number of unsold homes.

Since unsold homes equates to unearned commissions, what are the majority of real estate agents going to do? Earlier this year, we wrote what was viewed as an inflammatory article announcing the NAR Going Out Of Business Sale. Doesn’t sound too far fetched anymore does it?

Don’t Believe It’s A Going Out Of Business Sale…Then Somebody’s Lying To You!

While this news of prospective buyers not wanting to purchase any homes is somewhat disconcerting, it’s not the main reason to be alarmed. It’s merely a by product of a continued misunderstanding of the simple economic precept of supply and demand.

Many current home sellers do not understand it, and many listing agents do not understand it. It is my opinion that if this theory was more understood and accepted, then it is possible that the housing market would not be in the state that it is.

The Laws of Supply and Demand represent the cornerstone of economics and these laws are the basis for a free market economy. DEMAND is based upon how many buyers are interested in acquiring a certain product or service AND how much of that service or product they are interested in consuming. The latter part of that statement is often overlooked.

When planning to bring a product or service to market it is prudent to have a good Read more

Sometimes The Listing You Don’t Get Is The Best Listing Of All

Looking For That Silver Lining – And Then Finding It

Around the beginning of this year, my favorite loan officer called me up to ask if I would list one of her clients homes for sale. He had fallen on hard times, and needed to sell quickly. He had only been in the property for a year, but had adequate equity to get him out.

The home was a fairly long drive (outside of my normal area) but I agreed to go and talk to him. I spent a few hours with him – including walking him through many low-cost steps to bring the home up to a more marketable condition.

I also educated him on the current market conditions – including the status in his subdivision. This education included a drive to inspect a couple of active listings (featuring a HUD foreclosure) so that he could see firsthand what he was up against.

The sad reality of paying too much for the house when he bought it (he was an unrepresented buyer); the current market conditions; combined with some damage from teenagers and dogs – meant he wasn’t likely going to get much out of the property when sold – especially since he couldn’t continue making payments.

So we pretty much agreed on the listing price, and that I would come back in a week after he had the chance to knock off the items on his punch list – as he needed to leave and take his kids to a special event.

I spoke with him a few times during the week to check in on his progress (which wasn’t going too well) but he assured me that he would be ready by the following week for me to come out and get the listing signed and the pictures taken.

Meanwhile, I ordered his website domain and sign for his single property website.

The day before going out to take his listing, I called him up to confirm our appointment… but didn’t reach him – so I left a voicemail.

He never called back.

So the day of the appointment, I called him… and again – no success. Normally, Read more

A Special Sunday Session at BloodhoundBlog Unchained: Russell Shaw UNPLUGGED (And: Why I’m Going to Win My Pricing Battle With Greg)

Call me a shrewd negotiator or color me lucky but I pulled off a coup for the folks coming in for the Sunday session of the BloodhoundBlog Unchained Social Media Marketing Conference, brought to you by Zillow.com.

I was spending my Saturday evening online and e-mailed Wonderful Russ, asking him to give me some time, on Sunday afternoon. There are two things you need to know about Russell Shaw: (1) his accomplishments dictate that you should schedule appointments for his time (2) his welcoming nature affords you an open door, so that it isn’t always a requirement. You’ll have to travel very far to meet a man more welcoming than Russell.

Russell is a night owl, like I am. I think it’s because he is most creative at night; I know my best creative thinking comes after 10PM. I wasn’t surprised and was certainly delighted when his invitation to talk came immediately.

Call me now- I’ll pick up,” he beckoned.

When Russell Shaw invites you to call, you just do it. Let me give you some background, first:

I lived in Phoenix for 12 years. I’ve been a lender there, since 1995. Anyone familiar with Phoenix knows that Russell is an institution. Everyone within reach of the Phoenix television and radio airwaves knows Russell. I’ve watched Russell lose weight and gain gray hair, over the years, as THE spokesman for Maricopa County real estate. His presence is overwhelming with his plain-spoken “no- hassle listing” offering.

If you’re stuck on Interstate 10, driving into work, you’ll hear this, on the radio. When you return home from work and settle down to enjoy the Diamondbacks game, you’ll see this, on the television. Ubiquity is Russell’s middle name. It is not a mistake that I’ve modeled his offline presence with my own brand of online ubiquity. I’m not brilliant, just smart enough to model successful people.

I’ve hardly started and I could continue for hours. While Russell’s success is chronicled in The Millionaire Real Estate Agent, a true testament to his success comes from a story from last Spring.

Russell hosted a lecture series (for FREE) that Bloodhound Blog, North American Title, Read more

Introducing Chris Johnson, New Market Survival Enthusiast

Until today, I thought Richard Riccelli had the best job description among our contributors: “Marketing Provocateur.”

Loan Officer Chris Johnson offers plausible competition with “New Market Survival Enthusiast.”

Chris Johnson calls the tiny town of Westerville, Ohio, home — a challenge for a loan officer. A prolific weblogger and an incipient father, Chris is a tireless advocate of continuous self-improvement.

Chris and I have been dancing with each other for months. Time will tell, but I think he’s joining us now because he wants to deliver unto us a deep and difficult-to-master marketing philosophy: Get behind the mule and plow! Sounds like a BloodhoundBlog message to me.

At the same time, I am pruning our Frequent Contributors roster by a few names, folks who haven’t had as much time for us lately: Lani Anglin, Bill Leider and Galen Ward. We’ve never retired a contributor account, so it could be they’ll rejoin us in future.

Our recent additions have all been very big dogs, so it will be interesting to see if Chris can out-howl them. Nothing like a big challenge to bring forth big results.

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A Bourse is a Bourse and Zillow Mortgage is a Marketplace and Never the Twain Shall Meet

Bourse is a funny word isn’t it?  What exactly does it mean and why do people keep referring to the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace as a Bourse?

Bourse: \ˈburs\ Function: noun
Etymology: Middle French, literally, purse, from Medieval Latin bursa — more at purse
Date: 1597
1: exchange 5a; specifically : a European stock exchange
2: a sale of numismatic or philatelic items on tables (as at a convention)

Wikipedia equates a bourse more generally to a stock exchange.  This seems to be the connotation meant when Zillow Mortgage Marketplace is referred to as a Bourse: an open marketplace where pricing is transparent.

Hogwash… or more accurately: Pork Bellies.

I was an options trader on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange.  That means I stood in a pit with other traders and made the market for various options on various stocks.  (I reiterate this to make clear my bona fides).  When a broker (representing “the public”) came into the pit and yelled out an option strike, my job was to have the best bid/ask and be FIRST.  If I accomplished both goals, I got to do the trade.  If someone else was tighter or faster… he/she got to do the trade.  This is the most transparent, open market type of bourse that exists.  How does Zillow Mortgage Marketplace compare to this?  Not even close.

There are more than a few discrepancies, but let me cut to the chase: In a transparent exchange, whether it be a pure “open market”, “open out-cry” system like in Chicago or the “license to steal” that goes on at the New York Stock Exchange, one thing remains true: the underlying commodity is fungible.  One share of IBM stock is interchangeable with another share of IBM stock.  One call option is interchangeable with its mirror strike and expiration date call option for the same underlying equity.  Its nature does not change based on who buys them or who sells them.  This is a bourse.

MORTGAGE IS MORE FUNGUS THAN FUNGIBLE
Now you might say that all 30 year fixed rate loans are fungible, but they are not.  A lot more information must be presented before claiming two such loans interchangeable.  Read more

Just When You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any Worse

I was in Oceanside, CA, Saturday afternoon.  My daughter is in the cast of The Wizard of Oz at the Star Theater.  I watched her debut Friday night so I expected to while away Saturday at the beach or surfing the internet at Jitters Coffee Pub.

An interesting sign caught my eye.  That sign and Mike Farmer’s proclamation that “real estate is dead” (he read it everywhere) got my contrarian mind whirring.  The mere appearance of this sign affirmed my reason to join the Dan Melson recovery camp Searchlight Crusade.

N.B- Dan’s one of the sharpest out here; it sucks that he’s in my backyard.

Then, I read this.

…I’m just gonna recommend neg-am ARMs.  Ask Mel Gibson why.

The Odysseus Medal: “This stuff is simple to learn. No heavy lifting.”

Sunny and 93 degrees outside right now. This is warm for April, but not hugely so. I rode my bike when I should have been writing this post. Dock my pay. I deserve it.

There was a lot of great stuff on the nets this week, but nothing totally slayed me, so I’m not awarding an Odysseus Medal. We’ll see what next week brings. (I’ve already see one insanely great Black Pearl.) Here are this week’s awards:

The Black Pearl Award this week goes to Russell Shaw for I Want To Be A Lister – The Listing Presentation – The Objections:

About a year ago I wrote what was really part 1 of The Listing Presentation. Anyone wanting to increase their listing skills will likely find time spent on this post and that first post time well spent. I have mentioned the short list of different things a seller might say (or objections they might have to listing) to you. All good listers know these objections and are not startled or thrown off by the seller bringing them up. In fact, great listers know the objections so well that they want the seller to bring them up and if the seller does not bring them up the agent will bring them up. That’s correct. If you already know what they are thinking, why not just address it before they even mention it? It is usually fun to hit a softball when it is a slow underhand pitch.

As the nature of the objections has never really changed it is really sort of silly for any agent wanting to take a lot of listings to not know – in advance – that these are the concerns of the seller. I know that the internet and these new-brand-new-all-new-discount-really-really-low-maybe-even-no-commission companies have changed the very nature of life on earth, as we know it – but I am pretty sure the main objections that you could hear from a home seller back in 1968 were still the same in 1978.  They are still the same in 2008. I am thinking they may be still quite similar in 2048. Just Read more

Is Eric Blackwell the best father? The best friend? He could be on his way to being named Greatest Real Estate Agent In The World

Eric Blackwell showed us all yesterday what a great job he’s doing as a father.

Today, Ryan Ward offers potent evidence that Eric is a very good friend to have: He is throwing his support behind Eric in the SEO contest to determine who is the Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World.

I have been an honorary member of Team Eric — a member in the sense that I have done what I can, honorary in the sense that I don’t know how to do much — but Ryan has been a serious contender in the competition. Advising his supporters to send their links to Eric’s entry instead is a stunning tribute to their friendship and to the respect they share for each other.

This contest has been fun and very instructive. It doesn’t matter who wins if we all learn from it. Even so, if you would like to help Eric in his final push for the finish line, put up a link to his Greatest Real Estate Agent In The World post.

Here’s some sidebar code if you want it:

Copy all the code from within the box and paste it into the sidebar of your web site or weblog. It’s plain vanilla HTML, so it should work fine in any page.

At this point, every drop of Google juice is going to matter, and we don’t want for Eric to finish the race on fumes. He’s been a great friend to everyone who reads BloodhoundBlog. Here’s our change to pay back a little of what he’s given us.

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It’s 10:00AM; Do You Know Where Your Realtor Is?

Real Estate News } Real Estate Radio USA

Do you know that the Realtor who you have your house listed with is actually still earning their living as a Realtor? That was the concern recently voiced and posed to us by a concerned agent in Poinciana, Florida.

“In Central Florida, for example, over 50% of real estate agents are not actively working their listings. (That’s an approximation based on the number of agents who never return my calls and/or are know to now have full-time jobs doing something else.) Seems to me that there is something inherently unethical about REALTORS who don’t disclose to their customers that they aren’t working full-time to sell their properties.”

While I understand that this agent is probably a bit frustrated with her Central Florida colleagues and may be embellishing a bit, this comment gave me reason to ponder the implications of her statement.

A real estate agent approaches a homeowner and seeks to obtain a listing, prepares a listing presentation, and obtains a listing, all the while knowing that they will only be working part-time to sell the homeowner’s property. The homeowner, of course thinking they are hiring a professional, would probably not think to ask this “professional” if they are only in the game on a part-time basis.

Obviously this is not something the part-time “professional” is going to offer or disclose willingly, so therein lies the dilemma. Is there an inherent misrepresentation if an agent does not inform the homeowner that they are not earning enough of a living as a real estate agent and is not a full-time agent?

Does the homeowner have the right to know in order to make a fully informed and properly represented hiring decision that could possibly involve the signing of a binding contract?

In reviewing the National Association of Realtors Code of Ethics there seems to be some evidence to support the notion that an agent should indeed inform a homeowner of their status as a part-time agent.

Article 12
REALTORS® shall be honest and truthful in their real estate communications and shall present a true picture in their advertising, marketing, and other representations. REALTORS® shall ensure that their status as real Read more

Integrity — It’s more than just a word…

We were just assigned our seventh Team Lead since Catholic Healthcare West had outsourced me to PerotSystems. I’d been part of Perot’s Business Applications team for about sixteen months, and this seventh Team Lead was the first to come to Phoenix to look her team members into our eyes. She was brand new to the account and now had to give us our annual reviews, without the benefit of ever having viewed us. Like so many other corporations, Perot has the employee review herself, then during the annual review the employee and her direct supervisor compare reviews to come to an agreement. I’m often my own worst critic, so I was modest in ranking most of the achievements I was being measured on. But when I got to Client Satisfaction and Integrity, I gave myself the highest possible scores. Nina (pronounced Nine-ah), had seen a few of the accolades given me by clients who I supported, so she conceded the penultimate score on Client Satisfaction. But she had no way to assess my integrity. So she apologized, explained she was handling everyone on her new team the same, and gave me the average score, what would be a “C” on Cameron’s report card, for my Integrity. My reaction? This was the most honest evaluation that Nina could have given, given the circumstances. How can anyone judge another person’s integrity without evidence?

First of all, just what is integrity? I like Wikipedia’s definition:

Integrity is the basing of one’s actions on an internally consistent framework of principles. Depth of principles and adherence of each level to the next are key determining factors. One is said to have integrity to the extent that everything one does on the same core set of values. While those values may change, it is their consistency with each other and with the person’s actions that determine the person’s integrity.
(Emphasis mine.)

Words have precise meanings, and it’s the imprecise use of words that causes so many problems.

(My Mom and I had this debate yesterday: She — “I heard it on TV today… we’re definitely in a recession.” Me — “Definitely, as Read more

Are You Still Waiting For Her To Come Back?

So much of the country hasn’t experienced the 15-40% annual appreciation rates places like San Diego have experienced several times. Regardless of the down times, we’ve learned she always comes back smiling. The market? In the end, she would always love us. She always has. Though at times she could lash out, she always made up for it with lavish gifts of abundant appreciation. That may still be the case in regions like SoCal, but it’s my belief it won’t include the vast majority of residential income property.

There are several reasons allowing investors to conclude this. I wrote about many of those reasons in over at my place, adding a video for fun.

First and foremost, developers paid attention in eighth grade math class. They can make $X building duplexes or fourplexes and the like OR $X+ building condos/townhomes OR $X+++ building single family residences — and all on the same piece of dirt. Go figure, they chose to build where they found the most profit. This has been happening in places like San Diego since the ’80’s.

The only residential income product built since then has been recently. It’s been concentrated on the coast and upper income locations with rents that are incredibly high. These newish projects are not competition, nor do they have any positive affect on the values, rents, or vacancy rates of 35 year old duplexes. Duh.

An example is a new place offering 1 bedroom apartments for twice the rent of competition half a mile away. Twice as much. They also offer their tenants everything but a Friday night date — something I’m sure they’ll correct upon reading this.

The point is that the market? She’s left you. And she ain’t coming back no matter how much you turn on the old charm. When investors have the choice of putting less than 35-50% down just to break even, they’ll do it. The party’s over. Capital flows to the best returns. Duh. So why do folks in places like uh, the west coast for instance, insist things will revert to the status quo they’ve relied upon for so Read more

“It’s the difference between grabbing junk food from the drive-thru and sitting down with people you love for a leisurely and lively dinner.”

That’s Teri Lussier talking about the experience of settling in for a serious read at BloodhoundBlog, as against cruising the blogiverse.

I’m inclined to agree — and I’ve never been stingy with words. But here’s a thousand words Cathleen wrote yesterday afternoon while she was staging and preparing a house for listing:

The world is rich with Splendor. Sometimes you have to sweep a little debris out of the way to catch sight of it, that’s all.

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The Odysseus Medal competition — Voting for the People’s Choice Award is open

We have 17 entries on the short list this week, out of a long long list of 60 posts. This week I’m showing nothing but Black Pearls, practical hard-headed ideas for working better, faster and more profitably.

Vote for the People’s Choice Award here. You can use the voting interface to see each nominated post, so comparison is easy.

Ahem: Please don’t spam all your friends to come and vote for you. First, what we’re interested in is what is popular among people who would have been voting anyway. And second, I’ll eliminate you for cheating. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Voting runs through to 12 Noon MST Monday. I’ll announce the winners of this week’s awards soon thereafter.

Here is this week’s short-list of Odysseus Medal nominees:

< ?PHP $AltEntries = array ( "Barry Cunningham -- What Would You Do? What Would You Do?”,
“Brian Brady — How to save a declined loan
Mortgage 911“,
“Chris Johnson — Blogging is Not Prospecting Blogging is Not Prospecting, Or Even Close.“,
“Courtney Tuttle — 10 Ways to Improve Blog Traffic 10 Ways to Improve Blog Traffic in 30 Minutes or Less“,
“Dan Green — Do-It-Yourself Divorce Why A Do-It-Yourself Divorce Requires Professional Mortgage Advice“,
“Dave Smith — A Tool to Help Pick Keyword Targets A Tool to Help Pick Keyword Targets“,
“Eric Blackwell — Seller / REALTOR relationship What a Seller / REALTOR relationship should NOT feel like.“,
“Jonathan Dalton — Why Blogging is Prospecting Roll Over, Secretariat – Why Blogging is Prospecting“,
“Loren Nason — Who is Your Webhost and Why it Matters Who is Your Webhost and Why it Matters“,
“Mary McKnight — How to use demographics How to use demographics to craft real estate blog posts that target your readers“,
“Richard Warren — Real Estate Wholesaler So You Want To Be A Real Estate Wholesaler?“,
“Russell Shaw — The Objections I Want To Be A Lister – The Listing Presentation – The Objections“,
“Steve Leung — Generating a Lead Using an E-Book The Anatomy of Generating a Lead Using an E-Book“,
“Teresa Boardman — Know when to Walk Know when to Walk“,
“Teri Lussier — Working with engenu Working with engenu; a painless geek tool even an ‘I’ can love!“,
“Tony Schuricht — start investing in real estate again Five reasons to start investing in real estate Read more

Fully-Clothed In The Valley Of Transparency

Originator: I’m being paid $7, 000 from the lender because you chose a rate of 6%

Client: Got it. Cool, thanks for saving me money

Originator: If you chose a rate of 5.5%, YOU would have to pay me my $7,000

Happy Client: Understood. I’m down. Let’s roll with the 6% option.

Originator: You realize that if you negotiated better, I might have done it for less? It would have depended upon the demand for my services.

Confused Client: I’m sure I could have gone to Zillow and gotten a better price but I was impressed with your execution– I think it’ll save me a lot of money. Your blogging efforts convinced me that I need to be in relationship with you.

Originator: I just want you to affirm that I’m worth every single penny of my fee. I’m not a discount mortgage broker; I’M A PROFESSIONAL. You’ll also notice that I didn’t opt to put an anonymous rate search widget, like this or this, on my website.

Irritated Client: Understood. I trust you.

Originator: Transparency is great, isn’t it? You made the right choice.

Frustrated Client: You’re so smart. You’re so strong. You’re the best choice for me.

Originator: In the interest of transparency, should I drop my trousers to prove it?

Lost Client: Good bye.

My admiration for what Zillow has given the lending community is clear. I love that they’ve created a virtual Bourse for mortgages because I think like a trader. If my pipeline dries up, I’ll be in there, slogging it away. There’s a difference between playing by their rules, on THEIR platform, and adopting that “shopping technology” on my platform.

I’m virile but I don’t walk on the beach, in a Speedo, to prove it. Maybe that makes me deceitful, maybe it just makes me…

…smart.

The REAL Team Eric – and what my boys teach me about marketing…

You have probably noticed me talk about Team Eric–a group of Real Estate Agents who work with me as part of the Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World contest. (Thankfully, this effort concludes in two weeks! It has been fun!). But here is the REAL Team Eric.

blackwell2.jpg

That would be the lovely Mrs Eric (codename: Jen) along with our 4 kids. Why am I getting personal with this post? Well, because I have learned MUCH about marketing from THIS Team Eric. (and would like to share some of it.) Especially the one in the upper right (Cameron ,16 ) and the lower left (Jordan, 9).

What do a 9 year old and a 16 year old know about marketing? Actually quite a bit. You see, they are in the business of marketing real hope to parents and other kids with Autism. Cameron has Asperger’s syndrome and Jordan has classic Autism. They speak at seminars nationally on the subject. Yes it is kind of wierd to be the parent of kids who regularly can comfortably get up in front of hundreds of people and talk about “their life with Autism” and “Autism Mythbusters” and other such fun.

So, anyway, here are some quick things they have taught me:

1. Be online. Promote it. They wanted me to help them create AutismNotes.com. So we did. They wanted to give up their anonymity (to a degree) to help others. So we did. They are NEVER too busy to let someone know about the site and are always talking with people about it.

2. Manage your Reputation. Google “Cameron Blackwell autism” or “Jordan Blackwell autism” you will see quite a bit about stuff they are doing. If you Google your name, how are you doing? Cam has 6 of the top 10 for ‘Cameron Blackwell’.

3. Make Friends. That has been the theme of what I have tried to do with the Google contest, but the idea was NOT original. Cameron over the years has actually befriended SCORES of the worlds leading minds in the field of Autism. Many have had dinner at Casa de Blackwell! His Read more