by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

It turns out we’re only 12th on the list of sprawling cities, according to the Arizona Republic:

Metropolitan Phoenix isn’t the poster child for sprawl, but it’s a sibling.

A new study called “Sprawl Costs: Economic Impacts of Unchecked Development” ranked the Valley No. 12 among the nation’s top 20 most sprawling areas.

Los Angeles took the top spot, and the Washington-Baltimore area was No. 2.

The study is one of the get-a-headline-by-inventing-a-big-scary-imaginary-peril variety, but it’s hard to argue that the Valley is not a sprawling place.

There is a cure of course: Stop building freeways to promote development. Areas already overburdened by traffic need freeways, that’s understood. But freeways like the 101, 202, 303 (and you’d better know there will be a 404) are built to create traffic problems, not solve them. When you build a freeway through empty land, it won’t be empty for long. The purpose of those outlying freeways–and of all those still to come in Pinal County–is to open up land to the dreaded sprawl–to subsidize future development.

by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

The rejection by California’s voters of the four ballot initiatives proposed by Governer Arnold Schwarzenegger is actually big news for Arizona. All four will tend to drive business out of California, and much of that business will come to Arizona. This is from the Las Vegas Review Journal:

Certainly, California’s high tax climate is a direct result of a state government that refuses to curb its insatiable appetite for expansion. In addition, the promises made to government employee unions — promises that will continue to be made, if Tuesday’s vote is any indication — will only hasten the state’s need to capture more and more of the private sector’s output.

High real estate prices? Why, that wouldn’t have anything to do with burdensome regulatory environment governing land use, would it?

When you create conditions hostile to business, entrepreneurialism and economic growth, yet favorable to the advancement of big government — and when you turn back any effort to implement even modest reforms — the long-term results are easy to predict.

by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

A fascinating rundown on all the home building going on in (formerly) sleeepy Pinal County, south of the Phoenix area:

The population of Pinal County, which has about 250,000 residents, is expected to grow to about 1 million in 20 years.

But housing analysts say that for Pinal to continue to grow and entice people to make the commute, home prices in the area must stay lower than much of the rest of the Valley.

by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

“I love the dynamics of the population growth the area has,” he said. “There’s a lot of immigration from California, a lot of immigration from snowbird areas. Not everyone wants to be in the single-family life.”

So says Hosein Fateh about a condominium community he has planned for Gilbert. No projected prices as yet, but presumably these will not be aimed at the $300+/sf crowd sought by builders Downtown and in the Biltmore. It will be interesting to see if there really is a market for faux-urban-style living among people not quite as monied.

by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

As has been persistently predicted for more than 18 months, the sky has at last fallen in the Phoenix real estate market. This per the Arizona Republic. The median price for residential housing actually went down by one percentage point in October, the first time this has happened since December of 2003.

Obviously our market is a lot softer than it was six months ago, but this is not quite the calamity so long foretold. Recall, until very recently every other mountebank was seething about a bubble that was doomed to burst at any instant. Instead, we’ve had a slow progression back to a relatively normal market, with nary a whimper of hardship to be heard.

This is me, in the first of my real estate columns published by the Republic:

When newsmakers make pronouncements about the real-estate market, they are conflating everything with everything else: north Scottsdale with south Phoenix, the stately custom homes of Litchfield Park with the ramshackle trailers of Ellsworth Road in east Mesa. The total supply of available homes is up from where it was a few months ago, but not by much. Among the homes that are most avidly sought and most assiduously marketed, demand is still very high – and price pressure is still very strong.

Real estate is non-fungible. That’s the fancy way of saying that no one home can be substituted for another. So, to say that homes in greater Phoenix appreciated by 47 percent from July 1, 2004, to June 30, 2005, is interesting, but it is not hugely revealing. It conflates too many unlike homes and neighborhoods to be valuable.

It’s much more useful to note that the 1,603-square-foot Terracina floor plan in Ashton Ranch in Surprise appreciated by 67 percent in that same span of time. The 1,313-square-foot Vail floor plan in Rancho Santa Fe in Avondale was up 56 percent. The 1,273-square-foot Sterling model in Fletcher Heights in Peoria gained 56 percent in value.

Surely there is a net depreciation in values happening somewhere, but it’s important to understand where. At the fringes the softness is pronounced–the very low and very high ends, along Read more

by Odysseus

Big, Beautiful Bloodhound

Author website

The Arizona Republic blows warm, wet kisses at the light rail system currently (and essentially perpetually) under construction in Central Phoenix. It really doesn’t do to gripe about this thing. It will happen, no matter how much it shouldn’t. But the article itself is funny, presumably without intending to be. I am obliged by my agreement with the Republic not to make fun of it, so please understand that I am only drawing attention to the particular lines of text I quote below. Like this:

The spring weather is starting to heat up, and after a short bus ride to the station at Central Avenue and Camelback Road, you’re cooling your heels under one of the shade structures on the station platform.

See, the thing is, the light rail is not actually intended for people who live in Phoenix–at least not for the tax-payers, nor for the current users of public transportation. The two largest concentrations of adult bus passengers are in Sunnyslope and South Phoenix, but the trolley goes nowhere near either place. The actual ‘audience’ for the light rail are tourists. They won’t actually ride it, nor will the tax-payers, but the City wants to be able to shout, “Phoenix, too!,” to the light rail-afflicted world. It seems likely that out-of-towners are the ‘audience’ for this article, too, since everyone who lives here knows how unbearably hot it is outdoors, even in the shade.

You’re ready to get on board. Looking around, you see people heading for work, Arizona State University students, airline travelers with suitcases, and a few transient types.

Of course, prosperous people love ‘transient types.’ That’s why you see so many expensive suits on the bus. That’s why hitch-hikers jump for joy when they see a $50,000 SUV–a free ride with lumbar support!

There are no advertisements inside or outside. Valley Metro put a moratorium on ads for the first year, then will decide whether to allow them.

Here’s an important fact: Light rail is very expensive to run. Not just to build, mind you, although it’s hugely expensive to build; the system in Phoenix will run to more than $1,000 an Read more