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January 31, 2010

iPad observation #1: The iPad is the computer for the rest of us

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

Cathleen bought her mother an iPhone just lately. Aloma Collins is 88, and her health is slowly failing. She’s in an awful spot, unable to do much and yet bored to tears.

The iPhone has become a bright spot on her horizon. Cathy loaded it with some apps, and Aloma has since figured out how to add others. She’s big on email and card games, so far. I don’t know if she’s surfing the web, but you can be sure she will be in due course.

When the Macintosh was introduced in 1984, it was advertised as being “The computer for the rest of us.” This was true at the time, when DOS was a ubiquitous zombie wraith afflicting the earth like the undead Unix. And Windows has sucked so perfectly, over the years, that the Mac segment of the computing marketplace has always had ample gloating space.

But what about Aloma? What about my own mother, who has so far managed to reject two EZ-to-use computing paradigms?

The iPad is the answer, or the first step toward an answer. For everyone who gets frustrated by the arcane modalities of the PC world, the iPad offers instant results, instant gratification, instant satisfaction.

Many of our ideas about computing are based in a puritanical reading of Dante’s Inferno: “How can you hope to enter data processing heaven without first having trundled your way through data processing hell?” This is hugely satisfying to many of us living the wired life, especially Windows and Unix geeks, and most especially Microsoft Certified Cash Sinks or whatever the reformat-that-hard-disk cadre is called.

To whom is it unsatisfying? How about the 50% of America that has so far managed to resist the wired life? How about Cathleen’s mother, and my own? How about your Nana? How about her grandchildren? The iPad is the computer for people who do not want to have to be told how to use a computer — the computer for the rest of us.

I’ve been thinking about and arguing about this idea for days, but the iPad is igniting a scenius all across the net. Here’s a post from Read more

January 30, 2010

Regrettably, we have to rethink all of our ideas about staging homes

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

How are we ever going to top this?

Oh, yes. It’s real. Mrs. Buyer said, “I don’t even want to think about what happened in that room.” My risposte? “Nothing happened in that room!”

But: Even so: It’s an interesting real estate problem, isn’t it? It would be $500, at most, to repaint that room. And yet every buyer who has seen it will have been revolted. What’s the cash value of that revulsion? At least $15,000 off the comps — and it’s still not selling…

January 29, 2010

What Will The FHA 90-Day Flip Rule Suspension Mean ?

by

Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

The FHA  suspended the 90-day flip rule as of February 1, 2010, for a period of up to one year.  I’m not so sure lenders are going to play ball, though.  I’ve found that lenders are implementing the 90-day seasoning rule for all loans, not just FHA, these past six months.

I warned the readers on Bigger Pockets about my observations and offered this advice:

If you purchase a property that looks like a good flip opportunity, you should be careful to not enter into a residential  purchase agreement (RPA),  from an enthusiastic buyer, for at least 91-days from the date the deed was recorded.  I’m certain there will be instances where certain lenders will follow the HUD policy to the letter of the law but for now, I’d enter every potential flip planning for a minimum 90-day holding period before you market the property.

Bigger Pockets has a lot of experienced investors and speculators who read the articles there.  Ryan Hinricher suggested that some lenders may be playing ball:

This is probably going to go both ways. I would imagine some lenders will continue with overlays despite the 1 year suspend on the rule. As an investor who was an underwriter, the best thing to do is understand if your lending sources are going to work with the suspension or ignore it. My thoughts = lender by lender. I’m planning on flipping many deals within 90 days.

Ryan’s comment proves that there are no absolutes in lending, especially today.  While I think my observations are indicative of a growing trend, I imagine that a few lenders will follow the HUD guidelines to the letter and fund those transactions.  My guess is that those lenders will charge a premium for those transactions, costing the buyer/borrower more money for the risk involved.

Should real estate scavengers, who buy distressed properties and remarket them at a profit, wait the 90 days to enter a residential purchase agreement or consider a “buy-down”, so that the lenient but more expensive lenders’ terms are consistent with “market rates”?

January 28, 2010

Lone Star Rising: Special Operators from Texas Target Suicidal West Coast States

by

Realtor, Peripatetic Iconoclast

Author website

THINK HARD

Brian Brady had a comment in the Oregon Suicide post and it got me thinking.   I had forwarded this news to some economic development clients of ours.  Nike would make a great Texas brand. I just pulled up some of the largest employers in Oregon and found a couple first rate candidates for Texas passports:

Advanced Navigation & Positioning Corporation (ANPC) We got a few folks from here to the moon and back.  We even knew where they were the whole time!  ANPC would surely find some kindred spirits here.

AFMS Transportation We have a bigger port, a couple of trains and a freeway or two, plus two major airports, and no small expertise in extraterrestrial travel if needed.  Houston was the first word uttered from the moon by man.

AVI BioPharma I have no idea what an antisense vaccine is, but I bet that there might be a place for these folks near the largest hospital complex in the world. and maybe they can get a breakthrough in recombinant RNA for some commonsense on the West Coast.

Avista Corp. Is an energy company.  My question for these folks is, “Why not come play in the bigs?”  Even if Avista is a green energy company, Texas leads in wind and everything else that keeps your shiny new max-iPad charged.

Fort Bend County near Houston has already gathered a couple $ million to market target to businesses in LA.  The hit teams are forming to swoop in to rescue the productive.  The numbers for relocating the whole business are compelling for an entrepreneur who is under assault by every government entity to whom he must pay tribute.

Why would a West Coast business owner consider moving to Texas? Bawld Guy likes bullet points so here we go:

  • Cost of housing: half.
  • Salaries let’s call it a push, unless you have union labor and then, as we say yipee ki yo!
  • Income tax- What’s that?
  • Welfare payroll levies reduced
  • Residential Property tax-It’s how we pay for stuff like non teacher union schools and non union road construction.
  • Business Property tax- We’re gonna give it back to you if Read more
January 28, 2010

Oregon voters tell High Earners and Businesses to GET OUT! Where will they go?

by

Realtor, Media Mogul

Author website

All the election news last week was not as rosy as Massachusetts.  Oregon voters approved two measures that invite businesses and high wage earners to move out of Oregon.

Voters approved an increase in the minimum excise tax paid by every business from $10 each year to $150, a 1500% increase.  Excise tax rates were also increased for all gross revenue classes.  They also raised the corporate income tax from 6.6% to 7.9% on earnings over $250,000.

If you are an Oregon resident who makes over $125,000, if you’re single, or $250,000 if you file jointly, your income tax rate just increased from 9% to 10.8%.  If you earn over $250,000 and are single or a joint filer of over $500,000 your rate increased from 9% to 11%.

In other news from the Northwest of interest to those in North Carolina, the Washington State Democrats are telling Boeing to leave.  They aren’t going to let little things like agreements that they already made stand in their way.

Boeing spokesman Bernard Choi said the bill “would take away our ability to run our business” and says the company has met all the detailed conditions in the 2003 tax agreement. – Q13

For those of you from Oregon and Washington reading this, Texas is one of 5 states with no income tax.

Real Estate professionals in Idaho, Texas or elsewhere where the disenfranchised Oregon and Washington achievers might move may find the Northwest a productive place to look, as well as California, for buyers of high end homes.  Personally, I’ve lived in Texas before and don’t rule it out in the future.

January 27, 2010

The Apple iPad is a category-cataclysm and no one knows it yet: Double-thinking Steve Jobs and his double-suss of the hi-tech marketplace

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

Here’s the question that will appear in the deep-think mainstream media analyses of the brand new Apple iPad:

How can hardware vendors answer Apple’s new tablet?

Guess what? It’s a dumb question.

Slightly brighter lights might ponder this, instead:

How can Amazon compete with the new iBook store?

And: Yes: It’s another dumb question.

Here’s why: With the iPad, Apple CEO Steve Jobs has managed to double-suss the entire hi-tech marketplace. After 30-plus years of being ridiculed by nerdy dipshits like Bill Gates, Apple is poised to take over everything that matters in the new economy.

And, as far as I can tell, no one so far has even figured out what they’re doing.

Why is it that all of the supposed iPhone killers have fared so badly in the marketplace? Because the iPhone is not a cell-phone. It’s a software experience packaged as a cell-phone. Phone vendors can compete well enough with the actual phone, but they have nothing at all to offer as a software experience. Wannabe iPhone clones only have apps at all because iPhone app developers port their products to BlackBerry, Palm and Droid devices.

And if you’re about to get huffy about hardware or performance or open-source or whatever, stand down. We’re not done yet.

The true fact is, the iPhone isn’t a hardware product, and it’s only a software experience from the point of view of end users.

What is the iPhone, really? It’s the user-interface for the iTunes App Store. For iTunes generally, of course, but mainly for the App store.

So what is the iPad, really? It’s portable retail store-front for everything sold at the iTunes store.

Apps. Movies. Music. Books. And now newspapers and magazines.

The iPad is not a tablet computer, so all of the supposed iPad killers that will be introduced in the coming months will fail, just as all the iPhone killers have failed. Hardware vendors will kill themselves eclipsing the iPad’s hardware in every possible way — and they will fail dismally in the marketplace.

The iPad will be a great hardware experience coupled with the typically-superb Apple software experience. That goes without saying. But none of that will matter.

Here’s what matters: The Read more

January 27, 2010

Apple tablet computer announcement liveblogging now…

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

…at Engadget.

It’s called the iPad…

Dear Brad Inman, while you weren’t Vooking, Steve Jobs stole your lunch: “Embedded video inside of articles that can be played.”

Don’t weep, though. It’s a Kindle-killer, too, as expected:

How free does information want to be? The marginal value of digital content is the discounted perceived cost of the hassle and risk of obtaining an acceptable free alternative. Why don’t books sell? They’re priced too high. Steve Jobs will take care of that, just as he did with MP3s.

Note to Richard Riccelli: “You can change the font… whatever you want.”

USB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and 3G:

An unlimited data plan from AT&T for $29.99 a month.

How much would you pay? Starts at $499…

ATTN: ZipForms, DocuSign, FlexMLS: Get on this NOW!

No word on multi-tasking, use of the iPad as a phone or syncing/pairing with the iPhone.

But: It rocks as an internet device, with Numbers, Pages and Keynote from iWorks available. Listers can use Keynote to sway sellers, and Buyer’s Agents can live without paper. This is a rockin’ device for any salesperson.

Bottom line: Wicked cool.

New York Times, top-middle of the front page. Take that, Obama!

Kindle? Dead. Nook? Dead. Vook? Dead. Zune? Double-dead.

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January 26, 2010

Finding versus Discovering

by

Realtor, Renaissance Man

Author website

Take me home

Do you still buy magazines and books? Or are you hell bent on reading everything on the internet? Do you love statistics? Has Google Maps got you salivating for bigger and better satellites? Do you love good graphs better than sex? Is a bigger IDX better? Do you want to be completely plugged in, connected, always on line?

Well it turns out that I guess I’m more dog than human sometimes, especially when it comes to what makes a great web presence, and how best to graft a marketing strategy. I’ve spent some time today, you see, smelling other dogs beeeeehinds, and I think I’ve picked up the scent of something y’all might want to bury for a rainy day.

The scent I’ve picked up is either the Finding or the Discovering scent. I think it may be important to think about these two concepts as you put together your marketing, for your Web presence, and maybe more importantly, your belly to belly presence.

Turns out, you see, that people are still buying magazines. Though through the internet we can get all the information on who’s doing what to whom, how they’re doing it, why it shouldn’t be done, and where we can go to get more information on everything we just digested, people are still buying and reading magazines. Wonder why?

Turns out that people simply like to discover things, not just find them. Magazines, you see, lie around waiting for just the right moment to spring into our consciousness. Sure, you want the 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in Elevado Hills, with view, pool and lots of land, but sitting in front of an agent’s IDX (even the good ones) just isn’t the same as opening “San Diego Magazine” and seeing a home just like the one you imagine living in. Or you’ve been watching the statistics from a great blog site or newsletter from Brian or Scott or Mark or Tom on rates and terms and the market in general, and you’re educated and knowledgeable because of this. Read more

January 26, 2010

Shimmers of the shadow: Is your local REO inventory going up?

by

Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker

Author website

Strictly anecdotal — and I would be delighted to be wrong about this.

First, the inventory of the homes I track for investors has been rising slowly but steadily since mid-October. Not an obscene increase, but sales are way up as prices have wallowed in more or less the same place since last March or April. A lot of investors are calling “bottom!” with their cold, hard-to-come-by cash — and yet available inventory is going up, not down. And prices? In December, way down.

Then consider this: I have an REO negotiation going on in a condo community where the quantity of the one floorplan my buyers are interested in jumped 50% in two weeks, from 13 to 20 units just like that, all of them priced right or within shooting-down distance.

It seems to be getting easier and easier to get just the right deal for buyers. Even in overbuilt Phoenix, last summer and early fall played like a seller’s market, but by now it feels to me as though the table is swiftly turning.

And all of that leads me to wonder if we’re finally seeing the much-hypothesized, much-denied shadow inventory.

Am I seeing my own shadow, or is there something going on?

January 23, 2010

Let’s Play the Trulia Valuation Game! Prizes to the Winner!

by

The Real Estate Group, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake VA

Author website

I was thinking this weekend about all of the rumors about Trulia and Google buying them and all of that. I was thinking as well about how both Trulia and Zillow are both seeming to be angling to be the next Realtor.com…

What does that mean…trying to be the next Realtor.com….hmmm…my mind hearkens back to a certain Russ Shaw post here in October of 2007…something about a pencil sharpener. When they say they want to replace Realtor.com, they MEAN it! It is about folks standing in line to take money from REALTORS…right? If not that, then what?

If Trulia is not lining up to give us a ..ummm…sharpening (dare I say that?) then their valuations should NOT include ANY REALTOR MONEY. So here’s the contest:

This contest is for someone to explain in the comments below HOW Trulia is going to generate enough revenue to justify a $300 Million valuation (that is an arbitrary number – just guessing here, boys!) given their current burn rate AND

The contest winner cannot allow ANY revenue to come from REALTORS. Revenue can come from current CPM rates for ads on their site, but how much of their site would need to be covered with ads to generate that revenue? Not sure but my offhanded guess is about 125% of the above the fold area. Revenue can come from other creative ideas. Just not from the REALTORS wallet. 😉

The Prize: 1 hour SEO consultation with me.

See- I don’t get it. I wouldn’t pay $150MM for Trulia let alone $300MM or (heaven forbid) $500MM …so what gives?

Please submit contest entries below!

One last thing: The only thing “stoopider” than a Trulia valuation of that size would be Realtor.com’s valuation of $1.81 per share (it was down at $0.89 when Russell Shaw proposed buying them out…)

January 23, 2010

My Tried and True Rules For Political Debate

by

Real Estate Investments Broker

Author website

I love talkin’ with people. My heroin if you will, is the first couple conversations I have with a prospect or new client. It’s a fix I need often, and greedily seek. Political discussions also interest me. I love the rational give and take of a spirited political debate. What I can’t stand though, is the emotional claptrap, the avoidance of facing tough questions head-on, and the favorite technique of empty headed smart-asses, answering a question with a question.

Obviously, liberals and conservatives are both guilty. My experience however is with libs, who sometimes seem literally incapable of addressing simple questions asked in plain, one to two syllable words. I’m to the right of Atilla the Hun, and make no bones about it. The only reason I twice voted for Reagan was cuz Goldwater didn’t run. And HE wasn’t conservative enough. 🙂

Back to political debate.

I’ve developed some hard and fast rules. If ya wanna play with me, you abide by them, or we don’t talk politics. It tends to get libs’ panties in a bind, but it works well. Those who agree to them, usually end up admitting it made for a much calmer, more honest, and certainly friendlier give and take.

The Rules

1. If I ask you a question, you must answer THAT question — nothing more. Take as long as you need, but you must limit your response to the specific question. It works both ways.

2. Without exception — NO answering a question with a question. It’s almost always the way out when you have nothing to say. Either give the other guy the point, or make your case.

3. No personal attacks. The discussion ends there, without warning. You’ve obviously shown your gun is loaded with blanks. You’ve embarrassed yourself. Quit while you’re behind.

4. Don’t dress up your opinion as fact. You look foolish, and it’s an insult to my intelligence. It’s either fact or not. The intensity of your belief doesn’t make it so.

Here’s a recent example of a talk I had with a lib in Starbucks the other day. It was a great Read more

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