by Brian Brady
Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL
“The reports of our deaths are greatly exaggerated”– New York City and San Francisco
The Bloodhounds have been talking about San Francisco and Manhattan’s death over on Facebook. The general consensus is that they have been ruined by Marxist mayors (they have) and become much too expensive for people to live, work and play (they have). The pandemic exacerbated these flaws and now that everyone is working from home, these cities are destined to crumble into ruin.
Greg Swann fired a shot the other day, right here in Bloodhound Blog. I don’t dispute that both cities are in trouble.
This graphic shows the growth in year-over-year housing inventory. While most of the country is experiencing actual declines in housing inventory (less homes for sale than the year before), NYC and San Francisco have more homes for sale than the year before.
Some reasons for the decline in housing supply are:
(1) homeowners are hunkering down because of the pandemic,
(2) some homeowners are in trouble and taking advantage of the mortgage forbearance program.— they are delaying the inevitable sale,
(3) new housing construction has slowed or halter in most major cities.
Greg Swann went so far as to suggest that cities might be dead forever, thanks to the internet and remote work opportunities. While his criticism of poorly run cities is valid, the notion that the future of work is a “laptop in the basement” is not.
I am the one of the most tech-friendly Luddites you’ll ever meet. If an app or platform is relatively easy to use, I embrace it. Back in the early days, I was teaching real estate agents and lenders how to build IRL networks from social media. I have been doing that since 2003. The key component to success in online networking is to connect online but to meet, and develop a relationship in person. Human beings are mammals and we like to cuddle. The cuddlers will be more productive than the email-ers every time. Keep this in mind when you think that humans will scatter to the mountains and do business on Zoom forever.
Here are three reasons why neither San Francisco nor New Read more