{"id":10351,"date":"2009-11-19T16:41:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-19T23:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=10351"},"modified":"2009-11-18T08:57:29","modified_gmt":"2009-11-18T15:57:29","slug":"another-25-ouch-thats-going-to-leave-a-mark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/10351\/another-25-ouch-thats-going-to-leave-a-mark\/","title":{"rendered":"Another 25%?   Ouch, that&#8217;s going to leave a mark&#8230;.."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 800px;\" src=\"http:\/\/straighttalkaboutmortgages.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/11\/property-price-index-fhfa-1975-to-2009-by-newobservations-net.png\" width=\"468\" \/><br \/>Okay, a couple of things that this chart assumes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>That from 1975 to 1999 was &#8220;normal&#8221; enough to indicate a statistical trend.&nbsp;&nbsp; I think the case could be made that it was.<\/li>\n<li>That we&#8217;re going to eventually get back to that trend line.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I think a case could be made that we will.<\/li>\n<li>If both of those assumptions are indeed correct, then we&#8217;re heading into a scenario where we have quite an adjustment to go through in terms of a drop in peak housing values until we are back into range with that statistical trend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What do you think?&nbsp;&nbsp; Tell me why you think he&#8217;s wrong&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Tom Vanderwell<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/newobservations.net\/2009\/11\/11\/values-have-dropped-less-than-25-percent-of-the-fall-required-to-reach-trend\/\">Values Have Dropped Only 25% of the Fall Needed to Reach Trend \u00ab<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>PRICE TRENDS \/ WAR OF THE WORLDS (Part 4): Property owners nationwide have lost only one dollar for every four dollars they can ultimately expect to lose on their home.<\/p>\n<p>The good news according to the leading data series issued by the United States government is that prices have only fallen 6 percent. If you are a homeowner, you are wealthier than you knew. The bad news is you still have three dollars to lose for every one dollar which has already been lost.<\/p>\n<p>The total projected fall from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) \u201cAll Transactions Index\u201d, which begins in 1975, shows a peak-to-trend fall of 27%. Since prices are 6% lower by this measure, prices must still fall an additional 23% from today for prices to revert to trend.<\/p>\n<p>The assumption built into these estimates is that prices in the years 1975 to 1999 advanced at a typical rate. A trend line was generated to the present based upon that 25-year period. The chart depicts the divergence of the trend established from 1975 to 1999 and the actual prices recorded from 2000 to 2009.<\/p>\n<p>The FHFA prediction of a total fall of 27% is far less than the total fall of between 49% to 60% predicted by Case-Shiller. Based upon the four data sets reviewed in the last few weeks (see summary below), we can estimate a total fall of between 27% to 60% from the bubble top to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/10351\/another-25-ouch-thats-going-to-leave-a-mark\/#more-10351\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, a couple of things that this chart assumes: That from 1975 to 1999 was &#8220;normal&#8221; enough to indicate a statistical trend.&nbsp;&nbsp; I think the case could be made that it was. That we&#8217;re going to eventually get back to that trend line.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I think a case could be made that we will. If both [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,5],"tags":[406,263],"class_list":{"0":"post-10351","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-group-therapy","7":"category-real-estate","8":"tag-house-prices","9":"tag-tom-vanderwell","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3917,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3917\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":0},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"August 15, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, it\u2019s Friday again, and as one of the few remaining Fridays of the summer, I hope you can get out and enjoy the weekend (and hopefully the weather where you are will allow you to!) So what\u2019s been happening in the mortgage market this week? This week it\u2019s been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8880,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/8880\/green-or-beige\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":1},"title":"Green or Beige?","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"June 10, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"This afternoon, the Federal Reserve released their Beige Book.\u00a0 What's a Beige Book?\u00a0 It's their report based on observations and comments from people inside the business world on the state of the economy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 I'm going to walk through some \"highlights\" and \"lowlights\" of what's happening.\u00a0\u00a0 My comments are in bold\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Dirty Laundry&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Dirty Laundry","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/dirty-laundry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/16\/digging-for-the-news-on-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":2},"title":"Digging for the news on interest rates","author":"Odysseus","date":"November 24, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Note this from the Arizona Republic:Mortgage rates around the country, which have been trending upward, dropped this week, offering a dose of good news for prospective home buyers. Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Wednesday in its weekly survey that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.28 percent. That's down sharply\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7965,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/7965\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-15\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":3},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review&#8230;.","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"April 18, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Well it's hard to believe, but another week has flown by.\u00a0\u00a0 Rather than spending a Saturday working on mortgage stuff and writing about mortgage stuff, I spent the day taking my 8 year old to a birthday party, cleaning out the garage and getting the pool ready for the season.\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Group Therapy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5378,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5378\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-14\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":4},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"November 1, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I want to apologize for the delay in getting this out until Saturday.\u00a0\u00a0 Due to some technical difficulties and some new things I'm going to be implementing, Friday was spent working on computer issues.\u00a0\u00a0 Yeah, I know, a fun way to spend a Friday..... So, here we are at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/39\/why-the-sky-doesnt-fall-despite-the-constant-warnings\/","url_meta":{"origin":10351,"position":5},"title":"Why the sky doesn&#8217;t fall, despite the constant warnings","author":"Odysseus","date":"January 9, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's a step-by-step instruction manual in writing a sky-is-falling 'news' story: First, find some seemingly scary datum. Second, extrapolate the trend to absurdity without ever once cracking a smile. Like this:If present trends continue, the price of gasoline may someday hit $50 a gallon. The average worker could spend as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10351"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10351\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10352,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10351\/revisions\/10352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}