{"id":10766,"date":"2010-01-05T17:21:18","date_gmt":"2010-01-06T00:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=10766"},"modified":"2010-01-05T17:21:16","modified_gmt":"2010-01-06T00:21:16","slug":"are-the-uninformed-chatterboxes-in-your-area-insisting-that-the-real-estate-market-has-recovered-you-may-want-to-defer-the-celebration-even-so-this-could-be-the-golden-moment-for-investors-in-phoen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/10766\/are-the-uninformed-chatterboxes-in-your-area-insisting-that-the-real-estate-market-has-recovered-you-may-want-to-defer-the-celebration-even-so-this-could-be-the-golden-moment-for-investors-in-phoen\/","title":{"rendered":"Are the uninformed chatterboxes in your area insisting that the real estate market has recovered? You may want to defer the celebration. Even so, this could be the golden moment for investors in Phoenix."},"content":{"rendered":"

I’ve known for six months or more that there was a sweet spot on the horizon for investors and other highly-solvent buyers. That event was delayed by the first-time home-buyer’s tax credit. Today’s news about declines in the number of pending purchase contracts<\/a> is a symptom of the market returning to an unstimulated level of demand. I watched the dropoff reflected in today’s news as it happened last fall. Lenders cut off new applications for first-timers and, just like that, price pressure eased, available inventories started to rise and it came to be a lot easier to get a house under contract.<\/p>\n

We’re all waiting for the other shoe — the shadow inventory — to drop, but the supply of the homes I want most for my investors has almost doubled since mid-October, from around 350 units then to just over 600 today.<\/p>\n

Here’s even better news for buyers (not for banks): Prices are going down.<\/p>\n

This is the Cliff’s Notes for the last four months, as reflected in the BloodhoundRealty.com Market Basket of Homes:<\/a><\/p>\n

September: +3.15%
\nOctober: +2.14%
\nNovember: +2.22%
\nDecember: -8.03%<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That’s a huge drop for December — giving back almost everything we’ve gained since April, 2009. But, interestingly enough, the ratio of sales price to list price was positive. In other words, there is still competition for listed homes, but list prices are dropping.<\/em><\/p>\n

I don’t know how it is by you, but this is the perfect storm for investors in Metropolitan Phoenix. The homes are in much better condition than they were this time last year, and the prices are at hovering just above the 2009 low.<\/p>\n

Are we at the bottom? Feels like it — but we’re going to be here for a while. Positive cash flow is easy, but cash flow is all there is right now. If you’re not a buy-and-hold investor, Phoenix is not for you. I’m sure that’s true in most rental markets.<\/p>\n

But if you’re thinking of buying a rental home anywhere in the South or Southwest, reflect on this: This could be the coldest winter in 25 years.<\/a> Whether they can afford to or not, people are going to move. When Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’ve known for six months or more that there was a sweet spot on the horizon for investors and other highly-solvent buyers. That event was delayed by the first-time home-buyer’s tax credit. Today’s news about declines in the number of pending purchase contracts is a symptom of the market returning to an unstimulated level of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212,29,8,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10766","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-flourishing","7":"category-group-therapy","8":"category-investment","9":"category-marketing","10":"category-real-estate","12":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1578,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1578\/buying-foreclosure-properties-dont-be-the-early-worm\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":0},"title":"Buying Foreclosure Properties? Don’t Be the Early Worm…","author":"Cooksquared","date":"June 25, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"The old adage \"the early bird gets the worm\" points to the advantage of being first to market. But, has anyone ever thought about the early worm, clearly he was not so lucky. Many of the people who are jumping into the foreclosure market now may be the early worms.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6889,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/6889\/the-way-of-the-farmer-in-downtown-seattle\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":1},"title":"The Way of the Farmer in Downtown Seattle","author":"Greg Swann","date":"February 12, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I'll be doing a different version of The Way of the Farmer in Seattle today. I know we won't be able to do a lot of hands-on stuff, but still I'm keen to take on some practical, real-life marketing problems. Here's my syllabus, for which I have about a zillion\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5091,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5091\/this-just-might-be-the-optimal-time-to-buy-a-home-in-phoenix\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":2},"title":"This just might be the optimal time to buy a home in Phoenix","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 18, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0This just might be the optimal time to buy a home in Phoenix Who should be buying residential real estate in Phoenix right now? If you have been planning to buy a home sometime soon, and if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1555,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1555\/subprime-lending-fallout-goes-upstream-to-take-down-two-major-hedge-funds-what-does-this-mean-to-real-estate-investors\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":3},"title":"Subprime Lending Fallout Goes Upstream to Take Down Two Major Hedge Funds: What does this Mean To Real Estate Investors?","author":"Cooksquared","date":"June 20, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Two major Bear Stearns Hedge Funds face foreclosure due to their significant exposure to the subprime lending market. While this does not fall under the category of real estate investor, I spent last summer working for Bear Stearns and interacting with many of their hedge funds. Based on the very\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1037,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1037\/interest-rates-and-the-small-investor\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":4},"title":"Why Small Investors Should NOT Stress About Interest Rates","author":"Cooksquared","date":"February 12, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Interest rates and the small investor, is there really an effect? Beyond the obvious cost of borrowing, I have wondered if the small investor really notices a change in the Fed Funds rate. While I am not going to make the same mistake of asking you all to humor me,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9803,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9803\/real-estate-investors-its-time-to-come-out-of-hibernation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10766,"position":5},"title":"Real Estate Investors: Its Time to Come Out of Hibernation","author":"Cooksquared","date":"September 19, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Is it time to start investing in real estate again? \u00a0 First positive sign, I am writing again.\u00a0 While I write that half-jokingly, there really has not been a lot to write about for the past six months.\u00a0 My previous advice was to take shelter and start researching the markets.\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10766"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10768,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10766\/revisions\/10768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}