{"id":1106,"date":"2007-03-02T16:59:38","date_gmt":"2007-03-02T23:59:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=1106"},"modified":"2007-05-13T19:57:36","modified_gmt":"2007-05-14T02:57:36","slug":"the-numbers-are-clearly-bogus-mr-kelman-show-us-the-files","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1106\/the-numbers-are-clearly-bogus-mr-kelman-show-us-the-files\/","title":{"rendered":"The numbers are clearly bogus, Mr. Kelman. Show us the files . . ."},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Boer thought he found an error<\/a> in Redfin’s accounting of its MLS results. What he found turned out to be trivial, which led to another round of war-hooping from the Redfin tribe<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, our new contributor James Hsu<\/a> has demonstrated that Redfin’s horse runs behind the middle of the pack among big-name Seattle brokerages<\/a>. In other words, as predicted, experienced traditional agents do out-perform Redfin’s salaried agents.<\/p>\n

I finally took a look at Redfin’s spreadsheet today, which they were kind enough to share with me. There are two formulae for calculating the Sales Price to List Price ratio, but I’m not sure that matters. Ten houses sold for less that 65% of list, which I find amazing. More amazing still, nine sold for more than 150% of list. One of them sold for 1,068.526% of list.<\/p>\n

One condominium sold for 10% of list price. At that price, I think I might have taken more than one. Condo buyers are smarter, though. Only four of them were willing to pay more than 144%, although a whole bunch sold for more than 110% of list. In Phoenix, they’d be investigating for loan fraud.<\/p>\n

Here’s the cute part: Redfin sold 45 condominiums, of which 20 sold for more than its vaunted average performance of 99.340%. Okayfine, fewer than half. For residential listings, however, Redfin kindasorta sucked: Out of 125 sales, 70 homes sold for more than their average.<\/p>\n

I named all kinds of reasons for holding Redfin’s claims in doubt<\/a>. The overarching question — tough agents or tough clients? — is the one Redfin seeks to avoid. Its claims all week have been a textbook example of the Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent: If P then Q, Q therefore P. If Redfin’s agents are tougher than average, then its ratios should beat the market. Redfin’s ratios beat the market (a specious if not actually false claim in any case), therefore Redfin’s agents are tougher than average. The conclusion does not follow, and the raw numbers seem to argue eloquently that the results achieved by Redfin’s clients were caused<\/i> by Redfin’s clients, not by its agents. The skinflints did Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kevin Boer thought he found an error in Redfin’s accounting of its MLS results. What he found turned out to be trivial, which led to another round of war-hooping from the Redfin tribe. Meanwhile, our new contributor James Hsu has demonstrated that Redfin’s horse runs behind the middle of the pack among big-name Seattle brokerages. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4,6,5,27],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1106","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-blogging","7":"category-disintermediation","8":"category-marketing","9":"category-real-estate","10":"category-redfincom","12":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18099,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18099\/overnight-news-like-orren-boyle-in-atlas-shrugged-redfins-glenn-kelman-makes-rules-because-he-cant-make-money\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":0},"title":"Overnight News: Like Orren Boyle in Atlas Shrugged, Redfin\u2019s Glenn Kelman makes rules because he can\u2019t make\u00a0money.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"May 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Glenn Kelman the Orren Boyle of real estate? While Basecamp is graciously showing the world how to be based in business, Kelman is the social savior who has a solution for every problem except Redfin.com's currently-completely-useless marketing strategy. The flavor of the micro-second? Pocket listings. I don't like them,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":11655,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/11655\/adorn-that-russet-bloodhound-in-redfin-red-today-we-make-common-cause-against-stupidity-cupidity-stolidity-and-inertia-in-the-real-estate-industry-in-behalf-of-the-consumers-right-to-a-fully-info\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":1},"title":"Adorn that russet Bloodhound in Redfin red: Today we make common cause against stupidity, cupidity, stolidity and inertia in the real estate industry in behalf of the consumer’s right to a fully-informed, financially-sound and fun real estate experience.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 25, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Redfin.com is coming to Phoenix today -- 6 am PDT, to be precise. And they're coming as a VOW, which strikes me as being a potent marketing advantage, at least in the short run. And the news that might be most of interest here: BloodhoundRealty.com is coming along with them.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Flourishing"","block_context":{"text":"Flourishing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/flourishing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1994,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1994\/budgeting-redfin-making-the-numbers-work-in-a-corporate-brokerage\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":2},"title":"Budgeting Redfin: Making the numbers work in a corporate brokerage","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 1, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week Peter Coy at BusinessWeek made a point of asking Redfin's Glenn Kelman a real estate question. Kelman's answer wasn't awful, but it wasn't great. (The negotiation advantage for unsold spec home occurs once a quarter, not just once a fiscal year.) But it was funny to me, because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6885,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/6885\/how-can-you-benefit-from-the-sexiest-search-site-in-the-real-estate-20-world-without-becoming-an-employee-redfincom-is-going-into-the-referrals-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":3},"title":"How can you benefit from the sexiest search site in the Real Estate 2.0 world without becoming an employee? Redfin.com is going into the referrals business","author":"Greg Swann","date":"February 11, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I had this news last night, under embargo, but I was tied up with geek stuff. The Cliff's Notes: In areas where Redfin.com has MLS reach but does not have its own agents on the ground, starting today it will begin offering client referrals to agents it has screened and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Disintermediation"","block_context":{"text":"Disintermediation","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/disintermediation\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1085,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1085\/does-redfincom-have-tougher-agents-or-tougher-clients-a-challenge-in-bloodhound-red\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":4},"title":"Does Redfin.com have tougher agents or tougher clients? A challenge in Bloodhound red . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"February 27, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"I represented the buyer in the sale of a home worth $450,000. Luxury home on the first tee of an exclusive golf course, right next to a million-dollar custom-home lot. How much did we pay? $310,000. Now the truth is, I had an ideally-situated buyer and we were working with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7922,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/7922\/personal-relationships-1-cold-technology-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":1106,"position":5},"title":"Personal Relationships 1, Cold Technology 0","author":"Glenn Kelman","date":"April 17, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I hate to admit it -- I so often have to -- but Greg Swann was right. A few months ago,we got into a debate about whether venture-funded technology companies were squashing little brokers. I told Greg the little brokers had no brains -- why aren't they all trying to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.redfin.com\/files\/2009\/04\/why-did-you-use-a-traditional-agent.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}