{"id":13664,"date":"2010-11-18T13:49:00","date_gmt":"2010-11-18T20:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=13664"},"modified":"2010-11-18T13:49:00","modified_gmt":"2010-11-18T20:49:00","slug":"i-just-feel-that-mortgage-rates-could-drop-for-a-short-period-of-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/13664\/i-just-feel-that-mortgage-rates-could-drop-for-a-short-period-of-time\/","title":{"rendered":"I just &#8220;feel&#8221; that mortgage rates could drop, for a short period of time"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Didn&#8217;t I just tell you<a title=\"mortgage rates rising in 2011\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=13550\"> mortgage rates will be rising<\/a>,\u00a0 ten days ago?<\/p>\n<p>I sure did, and I think I offered a pretty solid, fundamental explanation of how the bond bubble will pop.\u00a0 That hiss you heard, directly after my post, was the rapid escape of helium from the bond balloon.\u00a0 Back then, the 4.0% FNMA bond <a title=\"old bond pricing\" href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/blog\/181294.aspx\">was trading at 102.75<\/a>, while today, that bond is trading at 101.50, after reaching a low of <a title=\"mortgage low\" href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/blog\/182056.aspx\">101.25<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s that mean to your customers?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The very same $300,000 loan, they could have locked in with no points, on November 8, 2010, will cost that customer about $5,000 extra, in closing costs, today.<\/p>\n<p>I &#8220;feel&#8221; they&#8217;ll have a shot at getting close to that no-point pricing before the month is over.\u00a0 Let me explain the difference between &#8220;feeling&#8221; something and &#8220;being pretty certain about&#8221; something.\u00a0 I&#8217;m pretty certain that the sun is setting over the yardarm of below 5% mortgage rates but I&#8217;m having a little difficulty reading the sun dial.\u00a0 I know it&#8217;s sometime between 3PM and 8PM for this mortgage rates rally.<\/p>\n<p>Still, before the<a title=\"sunset solana beach\" href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=N21Q_US1B_w\"> last ray sinks into the sea<\/a>, we&#8217;ll see some rallies.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s why I &#8220;feel&#8221; that way:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Fed is buying between $600B and $900B worth of bonds.\u00a0 It is resolute that this sort of monetary policy is what is needed to lower unemployment.\u00a0 So certain is it that<a title=\"political criticism\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2010-11-18\/bernanke-defends-asset-purchases-as-republican-lawmakers-step-up-criticism.html\"> it is fighting back against political criticism<\/a> of QE2.<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"GM offering\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=13595\">GM public offering<\/a> was received very well yesterday.\u00a0 Investors jumped at the chance to own the electric car company so much that GM expanded it&#8217;s offering and is trading higher, post-offering.<\/li>\n<li>The <a title=\"irish bonds\" href=\"http:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/newspaper\/breaking\/2010\/1118\/breaking15.html\">Irish bond bailout<\/a> appears to be happening.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Traders are calming down, and trusting the power of central banks&#8217; and governments&#8217; bailouts again.\u00a0 A trader&#8217;s loyalty is about as reliable as a lap-dancer&#8217;s love but, for the near-term, bond traders think\u00a0 QE2 just <em>might<\/em> drive bond prices higher.\u00a0 They ain&#8217;t selling too much and they ain&#8217;t buying too much.\u00a0 Expect them to watch what happens through next week, then pile on the bond train, hoping to make a quick buck.\u00a0 That&#8217;s good for mortgage rates, in the short-term.<\/p>\n<p>Eventually, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/13664\/i-just-feel-that-mortgage-rates-could-drop-for-a-short-period-of-time\/#more-13664\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Didn&#8217;t I just tell you mortgage rates will be rising,\u00a0 ten days ago? I sure did, and I think I offered a pretty solid, fundamental explanation of how the bond bubble will pop.\u00a0 That hiss you heard, directly after my post, was the rapid escape of helium from the bond balloon.\u00a0 Back then, the 4.0% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,26,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13664","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-investment","7":"category-lending","8":"category-real-estate","10":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9918,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9918\/the-jobs-report-whats-it-going-to-mean-for-mortgage-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":0},"title":"The Jobs Report &ndash; what&rsquo;s it going to mean for mortgage rates?","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"October 1, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Okay, it\u2019s hard to believe but tomorrow morning is the first Friday of the month again.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Where has the year gone?\u00a0\u00a0 In some ways it has flown by and in other ways it seems like it\u2019s been about two or three years.\u00a0\u00a0 Know what I mean? Any way, tomorrow morning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Group Therapy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16296,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/16296\/can-bernanke-keep-mortgage-rates-this-low-into-2015\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":1},"title":"Can Bernanke Keep Mortgage Rates This Low Into 2015?","author":"Brian Brady","date":"April 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been a vocal critic of Ben Bernanke.\u00a0 I thought his Quantitative Easing schemes would eventually create a bubble in the Treasury and mortgage-bond markets.\u00a0 Bernanke has committed to keeping rates low for another 18-24 months. I was wrong.\u00a0 I violated the first rule of market prognostication (from the late\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5161,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5161\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-13\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":2},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"October 24, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Here we are on Friday again.\u00a0 That means that it\u2019s time to try to summarize what\u2019s going on in the mortgage and finance world.\u00a0\u00a0 I\u2019m going to talk about a couple of main things:\u00a0 the economic fundamentals, some earnings reports\u00a0and the \u201cmargin calls\u201d that are going on in the equity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17897,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17897\/where-have-all-the-buyers-gone\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":3},"title":"Where have all&#8230; the buyers gone?","author":"Brian Brady","date":"February 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"If you work with home sellers, the pandemic has been good to you... VERY good to you. If you mostly work with buyers, the pandemic has been sheer hell for you. All of that may change in 2021.\u00a0 \u00a0If you spend 5 minutes reading what I am writing, you will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Real Estate&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/BlackFriday-480x320.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1534,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1534\/subprime-bookies-may-end-up-like-the-ending-of-the-last-sopranos-episode\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":4},"title":"Subprime &#8220;Bookies&#8221; May End Up Like The Ending of The Last Sopranos&#8217; Episode","author":"Brian Brady","date":"June 13, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"I wrote a tongue-in-cheek post about the subprime loans' collapse about three months ago. I wanted to show the history of securitization of home loans and explain that many of these defaults may actually be \"buried\" in mortgage pools. I pontificated that the expected debacle from the collapse may not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Real Estate&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8704,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/8704\/mortgage-market-update-what-difference-does-gm-make\/","url_meta":{"origin":13664,"position":5},"title":"Mortgage Market Update &#8211; what difference does GM make?","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"June 1, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, here we are on the morning many people thought would never come.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Many people said they never expected that GM would actually go under.\u00a0\u00a0 Well, under they are with approximately $178 Billion in liabilities and only $82 Billion in assets (and I think the $82 Billion includes the money\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Dirty Laundry&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Dirty Laundry","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/dirty-laundry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13664"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13674,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13664\/revisions\/13674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}