{"id":1508,"date":"2007-06-05T19:20:48","date_gmt":"2007-06-06T02:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=1508"},"modified":"2007-06-05T19:50:20","modified_gmt":"2007-06-06T02:50:20","slug":"katy-couric-redfin-and-the-predictability-of-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1508\/katy-couric-redfin-and-the-predictability-of-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Katy Couric, Redfin, and the Predictability of Markets."},"content":{"rendered":"

There was a delightfully obtuse article in yesterday’s Oregonian lamenting the abysmal ratings of Katy Couric and CBS Evening News. The writer’s reasoning was that it’s our fault for not watching, that we’re a country of misogynists not ready for a serious female anchor. Damn us.<\/p>\n

The fact is that, like most markets, the ratings were entirely predictable. Not that prediction is easy — obviously some people can’t even predict in hindsight — but those who are best able to infer behavior from given cause are those most likely to succeed in whatever they do.<\/p>\n

Some suggestions:
\n<\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n

1.<\/strong> Trust your first impression.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It’s the first advice I give to buyers: You’ll know it when you see it; if you have to be talked into it it’s probably not right. Same with ideas: if it sounds nutty on first hearing, chances are it is.<\/p>\n

When a network news division with serious credibility problems hires as an anchor someone famous for her teeth and entertainment value — and with credibility problems of her own — it’s nutty.<\/p>\n

When a company — Redfin — launches on the supposition that buyers will rush to be represented by someone they’ll never meet in their most important purchase of their lives, it’s nutty.<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>2. <\/strong>The corollary to (1):<\/strong> Don’t project your own bias.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Manifested in the notion that “If I<\/em> think it, so must everyone.”<\/p>\n

The Oregonian is obsessed with global warming (full disclosure: I am not<\/em> obsessed with global warming). When our local MLS decided to add a ‘green’ search mechanism, apparently intended to pick up those properties with Energy Star or other ratings, The Oregonian devoted sixty column inches to the news. (See here<\/a>). I still haven’t ever had a buyer ask me to find a green property, a seller who’s asked how to get a ‘green’ rating, nor have I ever talked to anyone else who has, and I live in the greenest state in the US. As of right now, there are 304 green listings in the MLS; out of 12,741.<\/p>\n

Redfin’s (and Sixty Minutes’) bias is “Stick it to the Man!” CBS’s bias is: gender trumps merit.<\/p>\n

Caveat: It’s Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There was a delightfully obtuse article in yesterday’s Oregonian lamenting the abysmal ratings of Katy Couric and CBS Evening News. The writer’s reasoning was that it’s our fault for not watching, that we’re a country of misogynists not ready for a serious female anchor. Damn us. The fact is that, like most markets, the ratings […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,5,27],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1508","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-disintermediation","7":"category-marketing","8":"category-real-estate","9":"category-redfincom","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8294,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/8294\/home-prices-and-the-rest-of-the-story\/","url_meta":{"origin":1508,"position":0},"title":"Home Prices and “The Rest of the Story.”","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"May 7, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"In case you haven't been able to tell, I've been a little frustrated (okay a lot frustrated) with the markets lately.\u00a0\u00a0 Why?\u00a0\u00a0 Am I asking for bad news?Nope, I'm looking for straight talk and reality and I don't believe we're getting that right now.\u00a0\u00a0 I don't believe that:That the government\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Dirty Laundry"","block_context":{"text":"Dirty Laundry","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/dirty-laundry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1163,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1163\/webloggers-and-the-press-part-ii-oversight-and-swag\/","url_meta":{"origin":1508,"position":1},"title":"Webloggers and the press, Part II: Oversight and S.W.A.G.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 17, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week, I wrote about my objections to webloggers being regarded as \"the press\". 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