It’s what I like to call “the most depressing slide I’ve ever created.” In almost every country you look at, the peak in real estate prices has coincided \u2013 give or take literally a couple of years \u2013 with the peak in the inverse dependency ratio (the proportion of population of working age relative to old and young).<\/p>\n
In the past, we all levered up, bought a big house, enjoyed capital gains tax-free, lived in the thing, and then, when the kids grew up and left home, we sold it to someone in our children’s generation. Unfortunately, that doesn’t work so well when there start to be more pensioners than workers.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
The entire welfare state is built on the idea that young people can be milked of their wealth because they’re too busy being young to notice.<\/p>\n
Alas, the welfare state also awards adults either for not reproducing or for reproducing in only the most wealth-destructive ways. The consequence (entirely foreseeable) is that the number of dependents-by-choice goes up while the number of de facto<\/em> slaves declines — by people either opting out<\/em> of producing wealth or opting in<\/em> to the welfare state’s “free” benefits or, as here, by not being born in the first place.<\/p>\nThis will not end happily…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Markets go up. Markets go down. But the whole house of cards is built on the idea that population will grow. What happens when it doesn’t? From Business Insider: It’s what I like to call “the most depressing slide I’ve ever created.” In almost every country you look at, the peak in real estate prices […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[251,29,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-16290","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-big-mother","7":"category-group-therapy","8":"category-marketing","9":"category-real-estate","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1938,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1938\/are-you-better-off-now-than-you-were-four-years-ago\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":0},"title":"Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago?","author":"Brian Brady","date":"September 19, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Ronald Reagan asked us that question in the 1980 Presidential debate. The obvious answer, in 1980, was NO. Are we better off now, in the real estate markets, than we were four years ago? I think the obvious answer is YES. Now, bubble bloggers and end of the world prognosticators\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17345,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17345\/overnight-news-pucker-up-today-just-might-be-peak-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":1},"title":"Overnight News: Pucker up: Today just might be peak\u00a02020.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Looking for a great debate question? Try this: \u201cVice President Biden, a week from the day after tomorrow is what date?\u201d But the debate is just the end of this day, and there promises to be tons of ugly news before then. Buckle up: It's about to get 2020 on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":924,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/924\/the-right-time-to-buy-an-investor-perspective\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":2},"title":"The Right Time to Buy: An Investor Perspective","author":"Cooksquared","date":"January 22, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"As we considered when to restart Cook Squared Enterprises, one question we had to ask ourselves was if it was the right time to buy. With interest rates creeping up and home values creeping down, is now the time to make a large purchase? Additionally, in my spare time I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blog Carnivals"","block_context":{"text":"Blog Carnivals","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blog-carnivals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15768,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/15768\/dont-you-love-reading-all-that-good-news-about-the-the-phoenix-real-estate-markets-recovery-guess-what-youre-being-lied-to-as-always\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":3},"title":"Don’t you love reading all that good news about the the Phoenix real estate market’s recovery? Guess what? You’re being lied to — as always.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 21, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"This is what's really happening: FannieMae and FreddieMac are holding foreclosed houses off the market, in anticipation of \"selling\" them to campaign donors. Meanwhile, the town is being picked clean, with prices being bid up by buyers convinced that houses are going out of style -- a story we've heard\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/24\/when-did-reporters-become-the-gullible-stenographers-of-frauds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":4},"title":"When did reporters become the gullible stenographers of frauds?","author":"Odysseus","date":"December 10, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Holy smokes!The Phoenix region has landed on a list of \"extremely\" overvalued housing marketsBut, but but! Of course there's a \"but\":but it's unlikely that the situation will lead to meaningful drops in home prices, several local housing analysts said.Whew! That was a close one! Well, not really. The cited text\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":587,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/587\/business-journal-housing-market-could-bottom-out-in-six-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":16290,"position":5},"title":"Business Journal: “Housing market could bottom out in six months”","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 31, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"From The Business Journal of Phoenix:The housing market could bottom out during the next six months, according to Metrostudy's latest report on local real estate markets. \"Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support for housing demand are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16290"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16290\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16293,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16290\/revisions\/16293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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<\/p>\n