{"id":1645,"date":"2007-07-10T13:25:30","date_gmt":"2007-07-10T20:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=1645"},"modified":"2007-07-10T18:20:25","modified_gmt":"2007-07-11T01:20:25","slug":"a-real-estate-recovery-in-early-2008-dont-be-so-sure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1645\/a-real-estate-recovery-in-early-2008-dont-be-so-sure\/","title":{"rendered":"A Real Estate Recovery in Early 2008, Don’t Be So Sure…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chicken Little made the famous quote, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Would he have been more believable if he had said the sky is falling, but I expect it to ease down slowly and rebound early in 2008? This is exactly what many real estate professionals have been doing for the past six months.<\/p>\n

Here are just a couple examples:<\/p>\n

Bob Toll of Toll Brothers, one of the nation’s largest home builders reports to CNN,<\/p>\n

I don’t see the market getting better until, at the earliest, April of 2008. But I do think that when a recovery occurs, it will be much quicker than it has in the past because of pent-up demand. You’ve got decent job growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, great corporate earnings reports and tons of money being created and sloshing around the world.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Why April? Why 2008? Since Bob Toll, like myself is a Cornell graduate, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will assume he has concrete data for this projection, but I really have to wonder if he is looking at the big picture. Access to capital has reversed course significantly and has now become a major stumbling block for many would be home buyers. Additionally, Congress is considering adding more rules and regulation to the banking arena, which will inevitably make lending tougher. On the other side of the equation, supply is hitting an all time high. Not only have many of the home builders over built, but adding foreclosures, and longer than average time on the market for regular stock really makes the picture look grim for sellers. It will be very hard for this equation to right itself in less than a year.<\/p>\n

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, writes at Bloomberg.com,<\/p>\n

We’ll hit bottom in 2007 in terms of sales, but we’ll continue to see price declines into 2008. Prices tend to weaken for about six months after inventory normalizes, and we probably won’t see that begin to happen until the end of this year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While Richard shows a bit more pessimism than Toll, he too Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chicken Little made the famous quote, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Would he have been more believable if he had said the sky is falling, but I expect it to ease down slowly and rebound early in 2008? This is exactly what many real estate professionals have been doing for the past […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,8,26,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1645","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-general","7":"category-investment","8":"category-lending","9":"category-real-estate","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14833,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/14833\/the-sky-is-falling-and-so-are-loan-limits\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":0},"title":"The Sky is Falling… and So Are Loan Limits","author":"Sean Purcell","date":"July 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The most recent loan limit in San Diego County has been $697,500, thus making it exceedingly difficult for those of us who toil away in the real estate salt mines of America's Finest City to keep beautiful San Diegans housed in the luxury to which they have become accustomed...","rel":"","context":"In "Big Mother"","block_context":{"text":"Big Mother","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/big-mother\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":100,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/100\/the-sky-is-always-falling-except-when-it-isnt\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":1},"title":"The sky is always falling — except when it isn’t…","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 18, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreclosures are up in Arizona for the first six months of 2006, as compared with the last six months of 2005. The will be cause for sustained gloating at the Arizona Republic, so here is the real news, from the Business Journal of Phoenix, before it goes through the Spin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6191,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/6191\/the-way-of-the-farmer-a-video-podcast-from-bloodhoundblog-unchained-in-phoenix-2008-using-the-internet-social-media-and-direct-marketing-to-farm-for-listings\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":2},"title":"The Way of the Farmer, a video podcast from BloodhoundBlog Unchained in Phoenix, 2008: Using the internet, social media and direct marketing to farm for listings","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 21, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is both the best and the worst of BloodhoundBlog Unchained so far. It's the best, or a piece of the best, because it covers a great deal of hard-nosed, hard-boiled, hard-headed nuts and bolts real estate sales technology in rapid-fire fashion. It's the worst, or of a piece with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.paypal.com\/en_US\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2626,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/2626\/is-there-actually-a-sky-up-there-anymore\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":3},"title":"Is There Actually A Sky Up There Anymore?","author":"Allen Butler","date":"February 20, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I listen to misery and woe almost daily. There are plenty of Chicken Littles out there reporting that the sky is falling. And it is! There's no doubt that the real estate market is in the tank in many places in the country. It certainly is in my neck of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":782,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/782\/a-richness-of-embarrassments-my-soup-bowl-runneth-over-with-top-ramen\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":4},"title":"A richness of embarrassments: My soup-bowl runneth over with Top Ramen . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 19, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"I keep thinking that I'm going to have free time for blue sky projects at Christmas, and I just keep getting busier. I accidentally sold another house today -- 166,800 packages of Top Ramen to me, but it's a new build that won't close until around July of 2008. As\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10763,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/10763\/new-york-times-on-the-loan-modification-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":1645,"position":5},"title":"New York Times on the Loan Modification Program","author":"Damon Chetson","date":"January 2, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"The New York Times is reporting what everyone at Bloodhound Blog has known for a long time about the Federal Government's attempt to encourage loan modifications: The Obama administration\u2019s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1645\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}