{"id":1655,"date":"2007-07-14T07:14:36","date_gmt":"2007-07-14T14:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=1655"},"modified":"2007-07-14T07:14:40","modified_gmt":"2007-07-14T14:14:40","slug":"not-all-neighborhoods-feeling-a-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1655\/not-all-neighborhoods-feeling-a-downturn\/","title":{"rendered":"Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is me in yesterday’s Arizona Republic<\/i><\/a> (permanent link<\/a>):<\/p>\n

 
Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn<\/b><\/p>\n

There are neighborhoods in the Phoenix area where the housing downturn is barely discernible.<\/p>\n

How can that be? News reports are full of doom and gloom stories. Defaults, foreclosures and interest rates are up, with mortgages resetting seemingly at whim. If the news is always bad, how can it be good at the same time?<\/p>\n

In fact, in some parts of the Valley prices have not fallen, with some neighborhoods actually experiencing continued appreciation. Inventories are up all over, but, so far, we haven’t seen much in the way of desperation selling.<\/p>\n

We track a slice of Valley real estate as an indicator of where the market might be headed. We look at newer mid-sized homes in freeway-accessible suburbs. These were the homes that led the market on the way up, and they’ve suffered more than others on the way down.<\/p>\n

So how bad is it out there? The homes we track are down 13.41% from the peak in December of 2005. That’s not insignificant. If you bought (or refinanced) a home like this any time after May of 2005, you’ve probably lost money. On the other hand, if you bought your home in January of 2004, you’re still up by around 58%. If you put 20% down, that’s a 290% cash-on-cash return. Better yet, as bad as things have been, there is only about seven months of inventory on the market, suggesting that prices may not fall much farther.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, MLS Area 323 in the West Valley runs from Northern to the I-10, from 43rd Avenue west to 115th Avenue, a large and very diverse housing stock. Available inventory is huge, more than a twelve months’ supply. But, interestingly, prices in that region have only dropped by about 2.75% since December of 2005.<\/p>\n

Don’t run down the street in celebration. Interest rates are flighty, and sub-prime or even low-down-payment conforming mortgages may be a thing of the past. But, even so, acknowledging that things may get worse before they get better, they haven’t been that bad so far.
\n<\/p>\n

Technorati Tags: arizona<\/a>, Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is me in yesterday’s Arizona Republic (permanent link):  Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn There are neighborhoods in the Phoenix area where the housing downturn is barely discernible. How can that be? News reports are full of doom and gloom stories. Defaults, foreclosures and interest rates are up, with mortgages resetting seemingly at whim. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1655","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-marketing","7":"category-real-estate","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":747,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/747\/price-downturn-less-than-scary\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":0},"title":"Price downturn less than scary","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 8, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"This is me from this morning's Arizona Republic (permanent link). I wrote this on Monday, and since then the end of the month errors in the MLS have been corrected, so the percentages in the fourth paragraph have been revised to reflect the changes. Price downturn less than scary Here's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18070,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18070\/overnight-news-the-real-estate-market-is-color-blind-good-neighborhoods-are-the-ones-rich-in-ants\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":1},"title":"Overnight News: The real estate market is color-blind. Good neighborhoods are the ones rich in\u00a0Ants.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"April 23, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"As I have pointed out too often, Redfin is on a Marxian crusade to prove that poorer real estate results for black homeowners results from racism, rather than from an aversion to the neighborhoods where black homeowners frequently buy their homes. In other words, why grasp at an inherently specious\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1005,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1005\/value-investing-101\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":2},"title":"Value Investing 101","author":"Cooksquared","date":"February 7, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Value may be easier to find than you think. A few days ago I read this article about Florida Mobile home buyers and thought, man; I need to get into mobile homes. To be fair, I am probably not going to get into mobile homes (certainly not because of this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2003,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/2003\/youll-lose-money-if-you-buy-a-house-which-house\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":3},"title":"You’ll lose money if you buy a house? Which house?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 5, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link): \u00a0You'll lose money if you buy a house? Which house? Jim Cramer, a clownish buffoon who screams for a living on cable TV, went on the Today show last week and said, \"Don't you dare buy a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5\/sky-falls-as-predicted-none-injured\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":4},"title":"Sky falls as predicted, none injured","author":"Odysseus","date":"November 11, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"As has been persistently predicted for more than 18 months, the sky has at last fallen in the Phoenix real estate market. This per the Arizona Republic. The median price for residential housing actually went down by one percentage point in October, the first time this has happened since December\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17534,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17534\/overnight-news-wanted-real-estate-reporter-who-can-tell-the-truth-about-riot-wracked-residential-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":1655,"position":5},"title":"Overnight News: Wanted: Real estate reporter who can tell the truth about riot-wracked residential\u00a0markets.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 24, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's a true fact of reality: If people moving from riot-ravaged cities have soaked up all the vacancy in suburbs near and far, that implies there is a huge amount of languishing vacancy back in those boarded-up burgs. Vacancy means spiraling price cuts and expired and withdrawn listings. Redfin doesn't\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}