![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/erda-estremera-sxNt9g77PE0-unsplash-480x319.jpg\")
\u201cWelcome to life off the lead, puppy.\u201d<\/p><\/div>Me today to our buy-and-hold rental property investors:<\/p>\n
It’s not well-reported, except in the form of secondary evidence like U-Haul rates and MLS listings and closings, but very-vertical cities are emptying themselves to the benefit of very-horizontal communities. Congratulate yourself again for investing in Phoenix, the world’s largest suburb.<\/p>\n
At the moment, we are on fire, and that is unlikely to abate quickly. Demand far exceeds available supply, and the builders are better at writing contracts than erecting structures, for now. Rental demand is strong, too.<\/p>\n
Prices have been strongly upward since the first wave of the exodus, surging with the second wave. The absolute strongest marketing characteristic for a home in Metro Phoenix right now is availability.<\/p>\n
That’s good, but will it last? The big short-run fear would be whiplash from mortgage forebearances. Foreclosures or sales in lieu of foreclosure could be enough to cool our overheated demand. On the other hand, late-adopter first-time home-buyers are scooping up suburban parcels, too, as a part of the urban exodus.<\/p>\n
We were nearing the top of this market in March, and the top is out there still. There is now nothing like a national real estate market, and it could be that 10%-20% of the nation’s housing stock is being abandoned. What seems certain is more rather than less volatility.<\/p>\n
Every one of our investors is sitting on a huge amount of accrued equity. That creates a tax problem, if you sell, unless you can effect a 1031 exchange into another real estate investment. But: If you can, now or sometime soon might be the time to think about banking a riskier win into a safer refuge.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile: Excelsior!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201cWelcome to life off the lead, puppy.\u201dMe today to our buy-and-hold rental property investors: It’s not well-reported, except in the form of secondary evidence like U-Haul rates and MLS listings and closings, but very-vertical cities are emptying themselves to the benefit of very-horizontal communities. Congratulate yourself again for investing in Phoenix, the world’s largest suburb. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[212,8,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-flourishing","category-investment","category-real-estate","no-featured-image"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17666,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17666\/bloodhounds-end-of-year-letter-to-our-rental-property-investors-thriving-by-surprise\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":0},"title":"Bloodhound\u2019s end-of-year letter to our rental-property investors: Thriving by\u00a0surprise.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 31, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I have four listings in the hopper, and the whole first quarter looks strong. So far, I am unable to rid myself of the NAR, but I'll be working on the problem as I go. I don't need ARMLS for rentals \u2013 Zillow alone is better for us \u2013 and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/jeff-w-8jWqx3fS0oI-unsplash-1-480x308.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":18290,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18290\/overnight-news-if-you-were-looking-for-the-top-of-the-real-estate-market-i-may-have-found-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":1},"title":"Overnight News: If you were looking for the top of the real estate market, I may have found\u00a0it…","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"I have a listing at 12 Days On Market \u2013 literally my worst performance in years. It's leased, so it's being marketed to investors only. Were it vacant, it would have gone in the first weekend. But: Still: I may have found the top of the market. All real estate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3253,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3253\/investors-are-coming-back-to-the-phoenix-rental-home-market-and-with-the-right-business-plan-theyll-make-money\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":2},"title":"Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market — and with the right business plan they’ll make money","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 21, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market -- and with the right business plan they'll make money Rental home investors are coming back into the Phoenix real estate market, and this is a good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18001,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18001\/overnight-news-americas-wealthiest-people-are-about-to-discover-just-how-much-poor-undocumented-and-homeless-people-deserve-to-live-in-vacant-office-buildings\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":3},"title":"Overnight News: America\u2019s wealthiest people are about to discover just how much poor, undocumented and homeless people deserve to live in vacant office\u00a0buildings.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been expecting this news for a while, but I didn't know how it would play out. Given the incipient housing crisis ballooning on the border, I thought China Joe might make mention of it yesterday. Vide: There is a huge surplus of effectively-abandoned housing building up in the rioted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/15\/rising-rents-keep-sky-from-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":4},"title":"Rising rents keep sky from falling?","author":"Odysseus","date":"November 20, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"In the midst of the appreciation boom in Phoenix, one of the regular Chicken Little complaints was that investors would cause a glut of rental housing, which would then sit vacant until they sold the homes in desperation. This is the static-market fallacy: This change will cause a problem, after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17549,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17549\/overnight-news-drive-on-why-writers-love-proof-readers-and-hate-editors\/","url_meta":{"origin":17003,"position":5},"title":"Overnight News: Drive on: Why writers love proof-readers and hate\u00a0editors.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We have huge LED-like signs on our freeways, not because reading while driving causes accidents and we want more of them but because a vast new population of full-time Democrats had to be hired to install, maintain and populate these signs. Think about Arizona and then think about how many\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17005,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17003\/revisions\/17005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}