{"id":172,"date":"2006-08-04T07:16:23","date_gmt":"2006-08-04T14:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=172"},"modified":"2006-08-04T08:52:31","modified_gmt":"2006-08-04T15:52:31","slug":"dont-be-chicken-about-the-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/172\/dont-be-chicken-about-the-real-estate-market\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Don&#8217;t be chicken about the real estate market . . . &#8220;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An easier Friday for me, nothing to torque the brokers. Maybe I&#8217;ll hear from weary sellers instead. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.azcentral.com\/community\/peoria\/articles\/0804gl-swann04Z2.html\" target=\"_blank\">Me in today&#8217;s <i>Republic<\/i><\/a>. Here is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/AZRep.php?Gfile=AZRepublic\/142.php\" target=\"_blank\">the permanent link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>During our recent run-up in values, the Chicken Littles couldn&#8217;t stop clucking about imminent doom. Since then the market has cooled, but the Chicken Little chatter is hotter than ever. The real estate market must collapse. It simply must.<\/p>\n<p>This prediction will lay an egg. But don&#8217;t hold your breath waiting for an admission of error. And if you yourself are waiting for the explosive report of the real estate bubble popping, you might just hear a pin drop instead.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Real estate and securities are both leveraged, but the real estate market is not the stock market. Stocks are instantly transferable. You can acquire or liquidate a portfolio in seconds. Moreover, while stocks are subject to margin calls, it would be insane for lenders to call their mortgages en masse.<\/li>\n<li>More to the point, homes have intrinsic value. A stock is worth what someone will pay for it, right down to nothing. In any place where it rains, snows or gets really hot, homes will be worth something.<\/li>\n<li>Which leads us to demand. Some locales have more houses than occupants. No bubbles will burst in those places, either, but their values will slowly deflate. In a market like metropolitan Phoenix, long-term demand exceeds supply. As long as it does, our long-term trend in values should be nothing but upward.<\/li>\n<li>Finally, sellers in a buyer&#8217;s market are a lot less time-sensitive than buyers in a seller&#8217;s market. In the latter case, the longer that buyers delay acting, the greater their costs. Hence, the frenzy. But if sellers stand fast in a buyer&#8217;s market, they might suffer a loss. But they might do better by waiting. Or the marginal cost of waiting may be less than taking a low-ball offer. Or they may elect simply to wait out the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bottom line is, Chicken Little be fried, the real estate market will be fine.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><!-- technorati tags start --><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:10px;\">Technorati Tags: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/arizona\" rel=\"tag\">arizona<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/arizona real estate\" rel=\"tag\">arizona real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/phoenix\" rel=\"tag\">phoenix<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/phoenix real estate\" rel=\"tag\">phoenix real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/real estate\" rel=\"tag\">real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/real estate marketing\" rel=\"tag\">real estate marketing<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- technorati tags end --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An easier Friday for me, nothing to torque the brokers. Maybe I&#8217;ll hear from weary sellers instead. Me in today&#8217;s Republic. Here is the permanent link. During our recent run-up in values, the Chicken Littles couldn&#8217;t stop clucking about imminent doom. Since then the market has cooled, but the Chicken Little chatter is hotter than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-marketing","category-real-estate","no-featured-image"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1945,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1945\/world-cup-real-estate\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":0},"title":"World Cup Real Estate","author":"Teri Lussier","date":"September 18, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Time for blogging is often hard to find. Most posts are begun on one day and finished some other, and usually it's for the best. I started this post yesterday, and it got a bit gummed up.\u00a0Nineteen hours and one Kris Berg post later, and I'm good to go.\u00a0And there\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogging&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":339,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/339\/foreclosures-up-27-in-arizona-lies-damn-lies-and-newspapers\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":1},"title":"Foreclosures up 27% in Arizona? Lies, damn lies &#8212; and newspapers . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 15, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is a good example of why short-term real estate numbers are so useless.In Arizona, the foreclosure rate leapt nearly 27 percent in August compared to July.Wow! Twenty-seven percent! That's huge... right? Wrong.Foreclosures in August were down nearly 12 percent from the same month last year[.]Last August, there were almost\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Marketing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":397,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/397\/blogoff-post-20-weblogging-for-real-estate-host-it-yourself\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":2},"title":"Blogoff Post #20: Weblogging for real estate? Host it yourself!","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Online Marketing Blog's \"25 Tips for Marketing Your Blog\", here is tip number one, perhaps my number one crazy-maker:Decide on a stand alone domain name www.myblog.com or directory of existing site www.mysite.com\/blog. Sub domain is also an option blog.mysite.com. Avoid hosted services that do not allow you to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogging&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1214,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1214\/sez-me-random-sunday-thoughts-the-duh-factor\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":3},"title":"Sez Me &#8212; Random Sunday Thoughts &#8212; The Duh Factor","author":"Jeff Brown","date":"March 25, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"We now hear empirical evidence about home prices across the nation. They rose (median) by 1%. They're expected to rise by a tad more than that this year. Oh my. Home builders also sold their new stuff last year for more than the year before. It's also expected they'll go\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3334,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3334\/let-me-introduce-to-you-the-one-and-only-dr-beatrice-rowles-real-estate-coach\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":4},"title":"Let me introduce to you the one and only Dr. Beatrice Rowles, Real Estate Coach","author":"John Rowles","date":"July 8, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Huff and Puff Your Way to a Fortune in Real Estate Part 1: Get Your Head in the Game BY DR. BEATRICE ROWLES, PHD, BSR, FUBAR Filling up a plastic bag with propellant and and then squeezing the bag to force it into your lungs is the new, cutting edge\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Real Estate&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dr Beatrice Rowles","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jrowles.com\/images\/Dr_beatrice.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":378,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/378\/cry-havoc-and-let-slip-the-war-of-blogs\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":5},"title":"Blogoff Post #1: Cry, &#8216;Havoc!&#8217; and let slip the war of blogs . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Welcome to the Sellsius\u00b0 101 Blogoff, a competition between Greg Swann of BloodhoundBlog and Ardell DellaLoggia of SearchingSeattleBlog, more famously of Rain City Guide. The objective is for each of us to compose 101 relevant posts over the next 24 hours. This might sound like a dumb stunt, but, in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogging&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}