{"id":172,"date":"2006-08-04T07:16:23","date_gmt":"2006-08-04T14:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=172"},"modified":"2006-08-04T08:52:31","modified_gmt":"2006-08-04T15:52:31","slug":"dont-be-chicken-about-the-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/172\/dont-be-chicken-about-the-real-estate-market\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Don&#8217;t be chicken about the real estate market . . . &#8220;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An easier Friday for me, nothing to torque the brokers. Maybe I&#8217;ll hear from weary sellers instead. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.azcentral.com\/community\/peoria\/articles\/0804gl-swann04Z2.html\" target=\"_blank\">Me in today&#8217;s <i>Republic<\/i><\/a>. Here is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/AZRep.php?Gfile=AZRepublic\/142.php\" target=\"_blank\">the permanent link<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>During our recent run-up in values, the Chicken Littles couldn&#8217;t stop clucking about imminent doom. Since then the market has cooled, but the Chicken Little chatter is hotter than ever. The real estate market must collapse. It simply must.<\/p>\n<p>This prediction will lay an egg. But don&#8217;t hold your breath waiting for an admission of error. And if you yourself are waiting for the explosive report of the real estate bubble popping, you might just hear a pin drop instead.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Real estate and securities are both leveraged, but the real estate market is not the stock market. Stocks are instantly transferable. You can acquire or liquidate a portfolio in seconds. Moreover, while stocks are subject to margin calls, it would be insane for lenders to call their mortgages en masse.<\/li>\n<li>More to the point, homes have intrinsic value. A stock is worth what someone will pay for it, right down to nothing. In any place where it rains, snows or gets really hot, homes will be worth something.<\/li>\n<li>Which leads us to demand. Some locales have more houses than occupants. No bubbles will burst in those places, either, but their values will slowly deflate. In a market like metropolitan Phoenix, long-term demand exceeds supply. As long as it does, our long-term trend in values should be nothing but upward.<\/li>\n<li>Finally, sellers in a buyer&#8217;s market are a lot less time-sensitive than buyers in a seller&#8217;s market. In the latter case, the longer that buyers delay acting, the greater their costs. Hence, the frenzy. But if sellers stand fast in a buyer&#8217;s market, they might suffer a loss. But they might do better by waiting. Or the marginal cost of waiting may be less than taking a low-ball offer. Or they may elect simply to wait out the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bottom line is, Chicken Little be fried, the real estate market will be fine.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><!-- technorati tags start --><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:10px;\">Technorati Tags: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/arizona\" rel=\"tag\">arizona<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/arizona real estate\" rel=\"tag\">arizona real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/phoenix\" rel=\"tag\">phoenix<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/phoenix real estate\" rel=\"tag\">phoenix real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/real estate\" rel=\"tag\">real estate<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.technorati.com\/tag\/real estate marketing\" rel=\"tag\">real estate marketing<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- technorati tags end --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An easier Friday for me, nothing to torque the brokers. Maybe I&#8217;ll hear from weary sellers instead. Me in today&#8217;s Republic. Here is the permanent link. During our recent run-up in values, the Chicken Littles couldn&#8217;t stop clucking about imminent doom. Since then the market has cooled, but the Chicken Little chatter is hotter than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-172","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-marketing","7":"category-real-estate","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1945,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1945\/world-cup-real-estate\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":0},"title":"World Cup Real Estate","author":"Teri Lussier","date":"September 18, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Time for blogging is often hard to find. Most posts are begun on one day and finished some other, and usually it's for the best. I started this post yesterday, and it got a bit gummed up.\u00a0Nineteen hours and one Kris Berg post later, and I'm good to go.\u00a0And there\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogging&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":339,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/339\/foreclosures-up-27-in-arizona-lies-damn-lies-and-newspapers\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":1},"title":"Foreclosures up 27% in Arizona? Lies, damn lies &#8212; and newspapers . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 15, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is a good example of why short-term real estate numbers are so useless.In Arizona, the foreclosure rate leapt nearly 27 percent in August compared to July.Wow! Twenty-seven percent! That's huge... right? Wrong.Foreclosures in August were down nearly 12 percent from the same month last year[.]Last August, there were almost\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Marketing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":397,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/397\/blogoff-post-20-weblogging-for-real-estate-host-it-yourself\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":2},"title":"Blogoff Post #20: Weblogging for real estate? Host it yourself!","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Online Marketing Blog's \"25 Tips for Marketing Your Blog\", here is tip number one, perhaps my number one crazy-maker:Decide on a stand alone domain name www.myblog.com or directory of existing site www.mysite.com\/blog. Sub domain is also an option blog.mysite.com. Avoid hosted services that do not allow you to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogging&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3334,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3334\/let-me-introduce-to-you-the-one-and-only-dr-beatrice-rowles-real-estate-coach\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":3},"title":"Let me introduce to you the one and only Dr. Beatrice Rowles, Real Estate Coach","author":"John Rowles","date":"July 8, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Huff and Puff Your Way to a Fortune in Real Estate Part 1: Get Your Head in the Game BY DR. BEATRICE ROWLES, PHD, BSR, FUBAR Filling up a plastic bag with propellant and and then squeezing the bag to force it into your lungs is the new, cutting edge\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Real Estate&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dr Beatrice Rowles","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jrowles.com\/images\/Dr_beatrice.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":666,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/666\/dual-agency-smack-down-a-chicken-in-every-pot-and-a-sword-for-every-gordian-knot\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":4},"title":"Dual Agency Smack-Down: A chicken in every pot and a sword for every Gordian Knot . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 20, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"I solved this problem today. It wasn't even that tough, once I started looking at it the right way. As I pointed out earlier today, the issue is this language in the AAR Consent to Limited Dual Representation form:neither Broker nor Broker's Licensee(s) can represent the interests of one party\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Dual Agency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Dual Agency","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/dual-agency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1214,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1214\/sez-me-random-sunday-thoughts-the-duh-factor\/","url_meta":{"origin":172,"position":5},"title":"Sez Me &#8212; Random Sunday Thoughts &#8212; The Duh Factor","author":"Jeff Brown","date":"March 25, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"We now hear empirical evidence about home prices across the nation. They rose (median) by 1%. They're expected to rise by a tad more than that this year. Oh my. Home builders also sold their new stuff last year for more than the year before. It's also expected they'll go\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}