{"id":17844,"date":"2021-02-15T07:43:27","date_gmt":"2021-02-15T14:43:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=17844"},"modified":"2021-02-15T07:43:27","modified_gmt":"2021-02-15T14:43:27","slug":"overnight-news-has-the-worm-turned-on-inventory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17844\/overnight-news-has-the-worm-turned-on-inventory\/","title":{"rendered":"Overnight News: Has the worm turned on\u00a0inventory?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Ya

\u201cImagine if one-third of all dogs were puppies!\u201d<\/p><\/div>I have an MLS search that is almost always open on my screen: \u201cColdwater Springs one story no pools no golf one month.\u201d<\/p>\n

My naming convention is obvious, and that one little search informs more than half of my world: The majority of the properties we manage fit that profile, as does half or more of everything I sell. I literally am a ‘neighborhood specialist’ without every intending to be.<\/p>\n

Here are two things that are interesting about that search:<\/p>\n

First, because inventory is in such short supply, I have to look at everything in Coldwater Springs to understand anything. Even going back only a month on Closed transactions is unreliable, with numbers moving so fast. Comping just for comparability sends you too far back in time, so you have to figure out where you stand by order-of-precedence, as well. Oh, well. It’s a great time to be a lister, and it is a wonderful time to be an experienced<\/em> lister.<\/p>\n

But: Second: Being trod upon, the worm will turn. That search has been rock-steady at 9 units for many months. Almost nothing ever Active, and then only for a few days, the rest either Pending or Closed. Now we’re at 14 hits \u2013 and climbing, the trend would suggest. One Active, stupidly overpriced so it may last a while. One Coming Soon. And, disturbingly, three Under Contract\/Accepting Backups.<\/p>\n

Greedy sellers and weak listers go together, but still… Last year’s price surge was fueled by the riots, with displaced urbanites rediscovering their suburban roots with twice the house at half the price. The riots have abated, for now, for the most part, but homeowners in suburban boomtowns like Phoenix might entertain a Californian paranoia: From Phoenix to Dayton or Decatur is also twice the house at half the price.<\/p>\n

I don’t know that things have actually changed \u2013 “It’s just a gully. Just nerves.” \u2013 but if they haven’t they will. One third of all American dollars are less than a year old. That inflation will be paid for. Plan accordingly.<\/p>\n

In other news:<\/p>\n

Joel Kotkin:<\/strong> California is collapsing.<\/a><\/p>\n

Joel Read more<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cImagine if one-third of all dogs were puppies!\u201dI have an MLS search that is almost always open on my screen: \u201cColdwater Springs one story no pools no golf one month.\u201d My naming convention is obvious, and that one little search informs more than half of my world: The majority of the properties we manage fit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,26,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17844","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-group-therapy","7":"category-lending","8":"category-marketing","9":"category-real-estate","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18251,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18251\/overnight-news-there-is-no-cold-water-in-coldwater-springs-just-steaming-hot-real-estate-deals\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":0},"title":"Overnight News: There is no cold water in Coldwater Springs \u2013 just steaming-hot real estate\u00a0deals.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"I work for investors world-wide, so I'm nobody's \"neighborhood specialist.\" Even so, I've done 23 deals in Coldwater Springs \u2013 a golf-centric master-planned community in the near-southwest quadrant of The Valley of the Ever-Fecund Sun. Half of the properties we manage are in there. I was a skeptic, at first.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17400,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17400\/a-bloodhounds-fish-story-10k-over-list-15k-over-market-23-days-total-and-the-sellers-total-pre-market-outlay-was-257-50\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":1},"title":"A Bloodhound\u2019s fish story: $10k over list, $15k over market, 23 days total \u2013 and the seller\u2019s total pre-market outlay was\u00a0$257.50.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I live a charmed life, just now, and I know it. The resale market in the Valley of the Ever-Fecund Sun has been all my way for seven-ish years, culminating in our current simmering state of frenzy. The investors I work with bought and bought and bought when nobody was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/BragMonroe-480x360.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17353,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17353\/dear-daniel-morillo-heres-why-opendoors-houses-sell-so-poorly-even-in-a-blistering-real-estate-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":2},"title":"Dear Daniel Morillo: Here\u2019s why #OpenDoor\u2019s houses sell so poorly \u2013 even in a blistering real estate\u00a0market.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 25, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Once upon a time in my young career, I used to think about sending little notes to flailing sellers, telling them why their houses weren't selling. Arguably, this would have been a violation of Article 15 of the NAR Code of (ahem) Ethics, but it would have been bad form\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/109-clipped.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/109-clipped.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/109-clipped.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/109-clipped.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3282,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3282\/casual-friday-caption-this-photo\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":3},"title":"Casual Friday: Caption this photo","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 27, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"My entry: \"Because I happen to like Argyle socks, that's why!\"","rel":"","context":"In "Casual Friday"","block_context":{"text":"Casual Friday","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/casual-friday\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3822,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3822\/caption-this-photo-president-bush-at-the-olympics\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":4},"title":"Caption this photo: President Bush at the Olympics","author":"Greg Swann","date":"August 9, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"My entry: \"A gentleman always makes eye-contact.\"","rel":"","context":"In "Casual Friday"","block_context":{"text":"Casual Friday","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/casual-friday\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8385,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/8385\/caption-me-this-magnum\/","url_meta":{"origin":17844,"position":5},"title":"Caption Me This Magnum","author":"Brian Brady","date":"May 13, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"My vote?\u00a0 \"Who let Higgins in to your closet, Thomas? \" Sometimes, you just gotta have a sense of humor.","rel":"","context":"In "Casual Friday"","block_context":{"text":"Casual Friday","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/casual-friday\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17844"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17845,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844\/revisions\/17845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}