{"id":18322,"date":"2021-07-17T08:41:02","date_gmt":"2021-07-17T15:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=18322"},"modified":"2021-07-17T08:41:02","modified_gmt":"2021-07-17T15:41:02","slug":"overnight-news-bad-news-pacaso-buyers-the-real-estate-market-turns-first-and-worst-on-marginal-products","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18322\/overnight-news-bad-news-pacaso-buyers-the-real-estate-market-turns-first-and-worst-on-marginal-products\/","title":{"rendered":"Overnight News: Bad news, Pacaso buyers: The real estate market turns first and worst on marginal\u00a0products."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Ya

\u201cI have an old squeaky toy that I keep around, even though I almost never play with it. Guess how often I share it with other\u00a0dogs?\u201d<\/p><\/div>There’s Pacaso news linked below, but it’s just a regurgitated press release. I’ve written a ton about them,<\/a> but that makes one of me. But if the real estate market is turning, it will turn first and worst on marginal products \u2013 those easiest to do without.<\/p>\n

That means all luxury homes, but especially second homes \u2013 by definition ostentatiously-wasted money. Redfin has made much of second-home purchases over the last year, but Redfin can also demonstrate that the fever of this real estate market tracks perfectly with the inverse of each home’s TransitScore: The harder a house is to get to from rioters, the higher the price.<\/p>\n

Taking account of that \u2013 “Let’s buy a place where we can work-from-home far-from-rioters” \u2013 how many of last year’s second-home purchases will turn into this year’s permanent residences? How much of last year \u2013 in all single-family-detached homes \u2013 was a two-step buy-and-bail?<\/p>\n

I’m not implying financial chicanery, just strategy amidst uncertain circumstances. How the future shakes out depends on whether the buyers can continue to work from home. But if there are people sitting on two houses while they try to figure out which one to shed \u2013 that implies future market weakness on both ends, as the artificial withholding of inventory wanes.<\/p>\n

Bad for Pacaso? You figure that out. I think they have no business masquerading as a business: I think they have discovered what I knew from the first \u2013 everyone hates sharing with strangers<\/a> \u2013 and are attempting to soldier on to an IPO despite the emperor’s very-hairy nudity. If they care to dispel any of those suspicions, I’m easy to find \u2013 as Pacaso’s many enemies already know.<\/p>\n

But a weakening in demand for houses in second-home locations will be very bad for the suckers who already bought Pacaso time-shares. You paid double at the top of the market, y’all. You’re going to be together for a while, like it or don’t…<\/p>\n

In other news:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Housing Read more<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cI have an old squeaky toy that I keep around, even though I almost never play with it. Guess how often I share it with other\u00a0dogs?\u201dThere’s Pacaso news linked below, but it’s just a regurgitated press release. I’ve written a ton about them, but that makes one of me. But if the real estate market […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,26,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-18322","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-group-therapy","7":"category-lending","8":"category-marketing","9":"category-real-estate","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18247,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18247\/overnight-news-when-is-ninety-dollars-worth-a-thousand-bucks-when-pacaso-says-so\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":0},"title":"Overnight News: When is ninety dollars worth a thousand bucks? When Pacaso says\u00a0so.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Time-sharing real estate brokerage Pacaso made The Daily Mail, America's last reliable news source. They're also in The Wall Street Journal, but that link is paywalled. Both stories are about efforts in Napa Valley to keep the carpet-bagging time-sharing interlopers out, but my own interest today is broader: Why is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17219,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17219\/dear-spencer-rascoff-how-many-rich-people-do-you-know-who-like-sharing-things\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":1},"title":"Dear Spencer Rascoff: How many rich people do you know who like sharing things?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 1, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Looking for a real estate startup that is having its very best day? Launching today, Pacaso \u2013 how many great names were passed over for this? \u2013 wants rich people to buy expensive second homes \u2013 and then share them with other owners. VRBO meets time-shares, except that nobody actually\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/artem-beliaikin-ze_IO-_tcjw-unsplash-480x320.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":18226,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18226\/overnight-news-if-youre-searching-bloodhoundblog-for-pacaso-im-your-huckleberry\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":2},"title":"Overnight News: If you\u2019re searching BloodhoundBlog for Pacaso \u2013 I\u2019m your\u00a0huckleberry.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"I told my wife that Pacaso is bragging about having a million visitors to their web site since they launched last October. She is web- but not dev-savvy. Even so, her instant retort: \"What's the bounce rate?\" You lead with your best card. Pacaso isn't bragging about sales, nor even\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":18586,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/18586\/overnight-news-whats-the-future-of-ibuying-ask-any-flipper-who-cant-do-the-math\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":3},"title":"Overnight News: What\u2019s the future of iBuying? Ask any flipper who can\u2019t do the\u00a0math.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 8, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"What will remain of the iBuyers, once the market turns? As noted long ago, iBuying as such is a very stupid idea. A flipper came up with it, and it may be that he didn't really even get the math of flipping, he just started at the perfect time \u2013\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17316,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17316\/overnight-news-paperboys-dictate-terms-to-newspaper-founded-by-alexander-hamilton-let-the-okeefing-begin\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":4},"title":"Overnight News: Paperboys dictate terms to newspaper founded by Alexander Hamilton. Let the O\u2019Keefing\u00a0begin!","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Reality is whole and uncontradicted, but a lie is a discrete contrary. Liars don't think to misrepresent the whole, typically, but they can't, anyway: There's too much of it. Accordingly, if you want to suss out a lie, look for the tells that the liar would not or could not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1779,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1779\/they-are-conniving-and-con-artists-redfin-launches-southern-california-sweet-digs\/","url_meta":{"origin":18322,"position":5},"title":"“They are conniving and con artists” – Redfin launches Southern California Sweet Digs","author":"Kris Berg","date":"August 9, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"And for the record, Redfin, the title was a quote taken from one of your Southern California Forum posters, and it was directed at me, or rather my ilk. I started writing this with every intention of giving you the publicity you asked for, the \"don't promote yourself, let others\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Disintermediation"","block_context":{"text":"Disintermediation","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/disintermediation\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18322"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18323,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18322\/revisions\/18323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}