{"id":23,"date":"2005-12-07T13:14:00","date_gmt":"2005-12-07T20:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=23"},"modified":"2005-12-07T13:14:00","modified_gmt":"2005-12-07T20:14:00","slug":"an-open-letter-to-dr-jay-butler-of-the-arizona-real-estate-center-at-asu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/23\/an-open-letter-to-dr-jay-butler-of-the-arizona-real-estate-center-at-asu\/","title":{"rendered":"An open letter to Dr. Jay Butler of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr. Butler,<\/p>\n

I saw this on money.cnn.com<\/a>:<\/p>\n

A researcher at Arizona State University told the paper that in the hot market of Phoenix, as many as 30 percent of the properties for sale on the market right now are owned by investors<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

They were referencing this quote from the Wall Street Journal<\/i>:<\/p>\n

In the Phoenix area, as many as 30% of properties for sale are currently owned by investors, says Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University. Six months ago, most investors were buying rather than selling, he says. The shift has helped to drive up inventories of homes for sale in the Phoenix area, which climbed to 22,340 in October from 8,600 in April, according to data from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

My question for you is this:<\/p>\n

How did you arrive at the 30% figure?<\/p>\n

As you know, a normal market in Phoenix is about 25,000 active listings. It’s possible that the absorption rate will turn out to be so slow that we may end up with a surfeit of inventory, but I can’t see any reason to raise alarms about inventory right now. The market is balanced, and, at the middle of the bell curve<\/a> of residential real estate products, recent appreciation is mildly positive.<\/p>\n

But what I would like to know is how you determine that "as many as 30% of properties for sale are currently owned by investors"? The only way I could think of ascertaining this as a matter of fact, rather than of gut-feeling, would be to go through the MLS listings one-by-one, comparing the listing data to the tax records. Even then, the error-rate would be huge. As you know, many investors falsely or erroneously report the residence address as the tax-billing address, intentionally or not giving the impression that the homes are owner-occupied. Add to this the considerable number of privately- and exclusively-offered homes, most of which would tend to be owner-occupied, and any correlation of listed to investor-owned homes seems to me to be impossible as a matter of practice.<\/p>\n

Am I mistaken? Is there an actual basis in data for making Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Butler, I saw this on money.cnn.com: A researcher at Arizona State University told the paper that in the hot market of Phoenix, as many as 30 percent of the properties for sale on the market right now are owned by investors They were referencing this quote from the Wall Street Journal: In the Phoenix […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-23","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-general","8":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":329,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/329\/could-valley-resale-home-inventories-really-only-be-15-over-normal\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":0},"title":"Could Valley resale home inventories really only be 15% over normal?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 13, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting notes from John L. Wake's Arizona Real Estate Notebook:Dr. Jay Butler, the head of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU, made a presentation yesterday at the Industry Partners Conference, an annual meeting of real estate industry folks - agents, escrow officers, mortgage brokers and many others. Looking at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":199,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/199\/butler-prices-down-sales-up-logic-sideways\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":1},"title":"Butler: Prices down, sales up, logic sideways . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"August 11, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Catherine Reagor in today's Republic:Home prices dipped slightly in July, but sales inched up from June. The median home price of a used Valley home fell to $264,900 last month, after climbing to a record $267,000 in June. There were 5,545 resales in July, compared with 5,460 the month before,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":319,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/319\/more-august-housing-numbers-for-the-phoenix-area\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":2},"title":"More August housing numbers for the Phoenix area . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 11, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr. Jay Butler of ASU has his August numbers out, and his report is faithfully echoed by The Business Journal of Phoenix. The big news: 2006 is not 2005. Who knew? The real news? August was not great but not awful. You heard it here first, And second. Fifth place\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":352,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/352\/howling-about-real-estate-on-the-radio\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":3},"title":"Howling about real estate on the radio . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 19, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"I will be one of the guests on tomorrow's broadcast of KJZZ's Here and Now radio program. One of the big names of Phoenix real estate analysis will be there, as well, either R.L. Brown or Elliott Pollack. ASU's Dr. Jay Butler cannot be there, more's the pity. Jay Thompson,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":84,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/84\/real-estate-market-healthier-than-reported-news-market-rancid\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":4},"title":"Real estate market healthier than reported; news market rancid","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 13, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Thrills, chills, front-page headlines -- everything but the truth. It's a way of life for Dr. Jay Butler of the The Arizona Real Estate Center. Today's Republic trumpets June was cold month for resales:The Valley's resale housing market took a hard fall in June, its worst performance for the month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":622,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/622\/phoenix-area-single-family-homes-down-one-percent-from-october-2005\/","url_meta":{"origin":23,"position":5},"title":"Phoenix-area single-family homes down one percent from October 2005?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 9, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"ASU's Dr. Jay Butler's housing numbers for October 2006 have been released:The Valley's single-family home-resale market clicked higher in October though sales are well off from last year's frenzy. There were 4,985 sales in October, up slightly from 4,875 the previous month but down nearly 41 percent from October of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}