{"id":3313,"date":"2008-07-02T08:26:47","date_gmt":"2008-07-02T15:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=3313"},"modified":"2008-07-01T21:06:51","modified_gmt":"2008-07-02T04:06:51","slug":"fedspeak-july-1-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3313\/fedspeak-july-1-2008\/","title":{"rendered":"FedSpeak July 1, 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"

The following are excerpts<\/span> of a speech made by David Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. My interpretations are in italics and bold.<\/p>\n

Speech – July 1, 2008<\/a>: “What’s ahead
\nI know you are most interested in the path from here\u2014the path to recovery in the financial markets and, by my inclusion, the broader economy. My base case forecast for the economy involves a stronger-than-expected first half of 2008 with growth of 1 to 2 percent but not much pickup in the second half. That means that things are going to slow down from here to at least Christmas.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The drag of high energy costs, continuing financial market stress, and a still-declining housing sector may continue for a while with gradual improvement of growth in 2009. That means that we hope that by the end of 2009, we’ll see the economy start to show a little improvement. Not much, but a little.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

There is much uncertainty surrounding this outlook. We really don’t know and we’re guessing almost as much as you are.<\/em>
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/span>More adverse alternative scenarios are entirely possible. We’re probably being overly optimistic.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Self-reinforcing progressive deterioration Lower house prices will reduce the number of people who can refi out of bad loans which will bring increased defaults which will bring increased numbers of REO which will bring lower house prices (now repeat this again)<\/span><\/em> <\/strong>could continue in the housing market, in turn affecting the financial markets the banks will take it in the shorts if that happens.<\/span>.<\/em> <\/strong>And neither the financial markets nor the overall domestic economy is protected from surprise events around the world.<\/p>\n

Like many, I believe stabilization of the housing sector is required for recovery to proceed Really? Who would have thought? (Okay, sorry for the sarcasm)<\/span>.<\/em> <\/strong>There are early and tentative signs that a bottom may be forming in some housing markets. Having said that, a sober approach to calling the future must allow for an additional period of house price decline, a slow housing sector recovery, and, as a result, a quite choppy progression to better markets and economy.” It’s going to be a Read more<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The following are excerpts of a speech made by David Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. My interpretations are in italics and bold. Speech – July 1, 2008: “What’s ahead I know you are most interested in the path from here\u2014the path to recovery in the financial markets and, by my inclusion, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[184],"class_list":{"0":"post-3313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-lending","7":"tag-the-federal-reserve","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9580,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9580\/a-pig-with-lipstick-%e2%80%93-the-financial-services-oversight-council\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":0},"title":"A Pig with Lipstick \u2013 The Financial Services Oversight Council","author":"Tony Gallegos","date":"August 20, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"With the push to establish the Financial Services Oversight Council, is President Barack Obama just recycling flawed regulatory measures by reshuffling the current regulatory deck and coining it with fresh \u201cchanged\u201d names? From all indications, that is exactly what it appears; or to leverage one of the presidential campaign terms\u2026\u201dit\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Lending"","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10448,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/10448\/wheres-that-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":1},"title":"Where’s that inflation?","author":"Damon Chetson","date":"November 29, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been saying for a year now that inflation is down the road. I had predicted that we'd start seeing the first signs of it by the end of 2009. And I had said, in anticipation of inflation, the Fed would start raising interest rates, in order to draw out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1944,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1944\/federal-funds-rate-cut-by-a-half-point\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":2},"title":"Federal funds rate cut by a half-point","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 18, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Here:The Federal Open Market Committee cut its benchmark federal funds rate by a half percentage point to 4.75%. In an effort to ease the credit crunch, the Federal Reserve also reduced its discount rate in lockstep to 5.25%. This is the first cut in the federal funds rate since June\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Lending"","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5244,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5244\/arthur-laffer-the-age-of-prosperity-is-over\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":3},"title":"Arthur Laffer: “The Age of Prosperity Is Over”","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 27, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"The author of the Laffer Curve in the Wall Street Journal:When markets are free, asset values are supposed to go up and down, and competition opens up opportunities for profits and losses. Profits and stock appreciation are not rights, but rewards for insight mixed with a willingness to take risk.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6769,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/6769\/the-fed-translated-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":4},"title":"The Fed Translated…..","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"January 30, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom here\u2026.\u00a0 Sorry for the delay, but better late than never\u2026.. (my comments are in bold) The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1\/4 percent. Nothing new there and no surprises.\u00a0 Can\u2019t go lower than zero and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8184,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/8184\/the-fed-translated-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":3313,"position":5},"title":"The Fed Translated….","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"April 30, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Yep, it's that time again.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Fed met yesterday and today and came out with their announcement this afternoon at 2:15 pm.\u00a0\u00a0 I promise that this one won't be as long as the last Fed Translated was.As usual, my comments are in bold and italics.....April 29, 2009For Immediate Release:Information received\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}