{"id":4234,"date":"2008-09-06T10:45:48","date_gmt":"2008-09-06T17:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=4234"},"modified":"2008-09-06T10:45:52","modified_gmt":"2008-09-06T17:45:52","slug":"august-was-a-great-month-for-real-estate-sales-but-when-40-of-buyers-are-pushed-off-the-playing-field-home-prices-could-plummet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4234\/august-was-a-great-month-for-real-estate-sales-but-when-40-of-buyers-are-pushed-off-the-playing-field-home-prices-could-plummet\/","title":{"rendered":"August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic<\/i> (permanent link<\/a>).<\/p>\n

 
August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet<\/strong><\/p>\n

We won’t have reliable numbers for a few days,* but preliminary results leave no doubt that August was a huge month for real estate sales in the Valley of the Sun. Not for prices, alas, which continued to slide by around 1.5% last month. But, of the bread-and-butter suburban tract homes we track, around 200 will have sold, a two-year high.<\/p>\n

September promises to be a banner month also, with nearly 280 homes currently under contract. Not all of those homes will make it through the escrow process, but most of them will.<\/p>\n

What accounts for all this activity? The single greatest factor is seller-paid down-payment assistance programs like AmeriDream and Nehemiah. An FHA loan requires a 3% down-payment, and these grant programs permit the seller to fund the grant, along with up to 3% more for closing costs. The upshot is that buyers can take possession of the home for “nothing down.”<\/p>\n

In recent months, down-payment assistance programs have accounted for as much as 40% of sales of resale homes, and as much as 90% of new-build sales.<\/p>\n

Here’s the catch: Under the mortgage relief act recently signed into law, seller-paid down-payment assistance will be forbidden. The restriction takes effect on October 1st, but most lenders have already closed the window on new AmeriDream and Nehemiah loans.<\/p>\n

It’s possible these programs will be reinstated by future legislation, but, even if they are not, it’s not the end of the world. It’s no great challenge to find a decent starter home for $100,000. And if buyers cannot manage to save up $3,000 for a down-payment ($3,500 after October 1st), acquiring a huge new debt may not be the best solution to their financial problems.<\/p>\n

But the short-run prognosis seems pretty obvious: When 40% of resale buyers are forced onto the sidelines, the downward pressure on prices should accelerate.<\/p>\n

The bottom line: If you’re prepared to buy a house in the Phoenix area, either Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).  August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet We won’t have reliable numbers for a few days,* but preliminary results leave no doubt that August was […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4234","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-investment","7":"category-marketing","8":"category-real-estate","10":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":747,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/747\/price-downturn-less-than-scary\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":0},"title":"Price downturn less than scary","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 8, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"This is me from this morning's Arizona Republic (permanent link). I wrote this on Monday, and since then the end of the month errors in the MLS have been corrected, so the percentages in the fourth paragraph have been revised to reflect the changes. Price downturn less than scary Here's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":302,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/302\/august-2006-market-basket-of-homes-values-up-25-on-stronger-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":1},"title":"August 2006 Market-Basket of Homes: Values up .25% on stronger sales . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 8, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the Metropolitan Phoenix real estate market starting to recover? Too soon to say, but prices edged up slightly on sales that were stronger -- even if they are still slow -- in the August edition of the BloodhoundRealty.com Market-Basket of Homes. Average prices for Market Basket homes in August\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17237,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/17237\/overnight-news-the-good-news-is-the-bad-news-wont-last-forever\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":2},"title":"Overnight News: The good news is the bad news won\u2019t last forever.","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Eric Blackwell wants you to think positive \u2013 and who could blame him? We are 30 days from the election, and I predict 30 days of October Surprises \u2013 some of them planned. The worm is about to turn on the real estate news, too: Unsold listings aren't news until\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ya think it's easy?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/BHBNewTopImage-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":512,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/512\/august-2006-bloodhoundrealtycom-market-basket-of-homes-values-down-015-on-normal-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":3},"title":"September 2006 BloodhoundRealty.com Market-Basket of Homes: Values down 0.15% on normal sales . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 5, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"The Phoenix-area's real estate market seems to be continuing its slow trek back to normalcy. Home prices were essentially unchanged on a fairly strong volume of sales in the September edition of the BloodhoundRealty.com Market-Basket of Homes. Average prices for Market Basket homes in September were down 0.15%, compared to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5705,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5705\/you-dont-hear-many-msm-analysts-making-this-obvious-connection\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":4},"title":"“…you don’t hear many MSM analysts making this obvious connection”","author":"Richard Riccelli","date":"November 19, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting piece at kausfiles.com.\u00a0 Excerpt: Real estate prices started to plummet just as expectations of imminent semi-amnesty were turning into the reality of harsher enforcement. Schools in immigrant heavy areas of L.A. for example,\u00a0reported declining enrollments in 2006.\u00a0 The\u00a0nationwide character of the Gran Salida\u00a0became apparent,\u00a0even to the press\u00a0by early 2008.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4880,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4880\/if-you-have-cash-or-can-qualify-for-a-mortgage-this-could-be-the-ideal-time-to-grab-a-bargain-priced-home-in-the-phoenix-area\/","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":5},"title":"If you have cash or can qualify for a mortgage, this could be the ideal time to grab a bargain-priced home in the Phoenix area","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 11, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0If you have cash or can qualify for a mortgage, this could be the ideal time to grab a bargain-priced home in the Phoenix area The Phoenix area is hosting a wave of real estate investors like\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4234"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4235,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234\/revisions\/4235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}